Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

markofesteem — Thu, 14 May 2009 23:27:00 GMT

I go for Jazil - Blush With Pride 3Bx3C - but I'd have to investigate how they match up in terms of temperament and physical attributes ... can't go by chart alone!

Your Turn: Analyze Rachel Alexandra's Breeding Opportunities

TrueNicks — Mon, 11 May 2009 14:25:02 GMT

Rachel Alexandra has taken North American racing by storm. The runaway winner of the Kentucky Oaks has been sold since her Classic win, she's been involved in some Preakness controversy, and her new owners have indicated mating plans even before her retirement

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

outsider — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 05:24:44 GMT

Surprised that Tiznow was chosen for PP.

I like Tiznow and watched with interest as he proved himself with so many quality runners.

I'm watching Peace Rules now. He seems to have gotten a good start as his 2yo crop had reasonable success.

If not tying back to BEST IN SHOW, then I like Cherokee Run or one of his sons. The newest sons have really strong dam side pedigrees and choice of sprint or distance. The older sons are relative bargains as mostly sprint sires.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Justine — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 20:39:17 GMT

It's just been announced that Pepper's Pride has officially retired and booked to Tiznow. The deal with Tiznow isn't set in stone yet, but according to the article on The Bloodhorse Mr. Allen are pretty set on the breeding.

What's your take on this? Some of the people I've been talking with believe it's a good and balanced match, with a bit more speed than stamina thrown in. According to TrueNicks the best horses on the Tiznow/Mr. Prospector cross are ungraded stakes winners but if Mr. Allen intends to run the resulting foal in New Mexico I think it's a pretty good deal.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Alan Porter — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:58:03 GMT

City Zip's a very unusual Mr. Prospector grandson, in that he seems love crossing back over Mr. Prospector line mares. We were involved in planning the mating for Bustin Stones - didn't know that he was going to like Mr. Prospector in general, but loved the Mr. Prospector/In Reality crosses on both sides of the pedigree.

City Zip is mega value for 2009 - he had an undefeated G1 winner and an undefeated multiple graded stakes winner last year.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

AP — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 11:00:54 GMT

I have spent a while thinking about this and am still staying with inbreeding to Mr Prospector. However, I have changed my selection to City Zip. 12.5k is reasonable. AEI 1.84 v Ci 1.40 so he upgrades. Good sire of 2 year olds. I think he will be also be inbreeding to her genetic strengths. Truenicks likes the mating ie A++ 24.82 with Gr1 Bustin Stones being bred on the same lines. In fact the other good City Zip offspring seem to like returns of RAN and or Blushing Groom too. How can it fail?

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Reality Check — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 11:42:21 GMT

Re: Dixie Union -- I like it. Good call. For some reason, I tend to blank on him when I'm looking at that Change Water branch -- If it's not Allen's Prospect or one of the Fall Aspen boys, I don't bring them immediately to mind.

I liked him better at $35k. He has the production numbers I like to see, I just can't fathom why his AEI/CI has the gap it does. 0.5 isn't bad at his level, I just wish it were a little closer.

It's a lot cleaner than the other three Change Water inbreds he's produced as well (all from daughters of Allen's Prospect out of Dancer line mares) but of those three, two started/won and one is a stake horse.

I can't figure out a fast, easy way to pull all the Portage inbreds, but of the ones I did find (sibling to sibling matches) looks like there are 37 foals, 30 starters, 19 winners and 3 stakes horses. That's not too bad.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

bigjohntee — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 17:36:46 GMT

If you have ever bred and raced horses you know how difficult it is to break a horses maiden in any class because there are so many variables to get you beat. I don't care if the mare ran in NM, Ohio, Ok, Indiana or the cheapest tracks in the country, Pepper's Pride did something that is very, very difficult to do. I think the owner is trying to get a free stud fee in Kentucky from a high profile stud. I know he has asked for at least one and was turned down but I suspect someone with a high profile stallion will give him one for free. I hope it is the perfect one. The mare deserves it.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Alan Porter — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 15:17:00 GMT

JP/Carlsbad: Irrespective of price, I'd still start with Giant's Causeway and Pulpit, as for me, they are the best two proven stallions that fit her pedigree. Pulpit sons, Sky Mesa and Tapit are more experimental, but interesting. First Samurai is an interesting Giant's Causeway son on paper.

But if we were really going to try something, have a look at Olmodavor. He is A.P., which has worked with Desert God's family, and he has El Gran Senor to double up that female line.

Merry Christmas everyone!

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Alan Porter — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 15:10:36 GMT

Reality Check: How about Dixie Union, who goes back to a half-sister to Pack Trip? I haven't got a lot of time to dissect it, but there is a lot of interesting "old American" blood in the dam, including the double of Johnstown, two crosses of Bimelech and so forth. She's got another Bimelech and a daughter of La Troienne in the sire. The double of Johnstown, combined with Fappiano would encourage Omaha/Flares. A horse with a Storm Bird/Nijinsky II combination would have both.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Reality Check — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 05:54:03 GMT

I think it was much easier to justify breeding Roll Over Baby semi-commercially based on her own family history, since it gave reason to believe she'd be able to produce a runner.

I was just looking at Peppers Pride's pedigree to see if I might be missing an obvious answer or overlooked avenue and if there is one, I would have to think it Portage (through her son Pack Trip, sire of Pepper's third dam), or more specifically, Fall Aspen. It's unfortunate there's no real way to get there. All the good Fall Aspen males either died before they could prove themselves as sires (Dubai Millennium and Prince of Thieves) or are in other countries (Fort Wood, Bianconi, Timber Country) because they couldn't quite cut it here commercially.

Oh, for the want of A.I. (I'd probably go with Bianconi from that lot).

Have a Merry Christmas all.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

carlsbad — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:59:32 GMT

Sorry, got in on conversation late,but didnt see a response to JP on your pick regardless of price if you were going to run the foal.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Alan Porter — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:48:03 GMT

Sorry, meant to reply to the last comment sooner. I'd agree that Roll Over Baby is not an exact comparison, but she is an illustration of a state-bred mare, who entered a commercial program, and was able to make an impact there (the real reason she was bought, I believe, was her looks). She was almost certainly not as good a runner as Peppers Pride, and the top line is a lot more obscure (to commercial breeders, anyway).

She did/does have more black-type on the page, in the first couple of dams, it's almost all Ohio-bred.

Talking strictly from a commercial standpoint - which I admit, might be completely hypothetical - if you can get a really stellar individual by even a $10,000-$15,000 freshman sire, six figures is not too hard (or at least wasn't before the melt-down), almost irrespective of family.

Whether it makes sense or not, the chances are, a good-looking Pulpit or Giant's Causeway out of this mare would have no problem giving a decent return on investment. Given what she's earned, it would be worth putting up the money to give her the best shot possible.

I'd also agree that, for whatever reason, her last run was a major step forward on the balance of her form (other than a 95 Beyer a while back). Still, on the basis of that effort, she would have been a graded stakes filly.

With regard to the "breed to sell" scenario, I think that production costs are so high that it takes some fairly deep pockets to take a horse all the way to the track (I've got a mare, her yearling in pre-training, and her weanling, so I get a monthly reminder of that fact), and the market has been so particular that "breed to sell" has been elevated to an art form.

For me, as an advisor, it just means that there are a group of stallios in any given year, that are too risky to use. I'd have to say, that one of the results has been very inconsistent quality in stallions' books, and this makes it very hard to fairly evaluate stallions.

Any, thanks for the dialogue, it's made for a thought-provoking exchange of views, and raised some interesting points.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Reality Check — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 05:34:35 GMT

Fair enough, Mr. Porter. I just can't find a logical reason to think this mare with her family should be bred in the manner most here are advocating.

I also think it's pretty disingenuous to compare Peppers Pride to Roll Over Baby.

By the time Roll Over Baby's foals hit the sales ring, her family had fleshed out considerably more than PP's family ever will. When Majorbigtimesheet sold at Barretts in '97, ROB's stakes placed half brother was running. By the time the rest of her foals hit the ring, her stakes winning half sister had shown up to compliment the stakes winner half brother that preceded ROB.

BTW, does anyone remember what Carson City was standing for in 1995?

Roll Over Baby is also out of a half sibling to 5 other stakes horses, her second dam a half to 2 multiple stakes horses. Roll Over Baby's family is far superior to Pepper's Pride and her initial sales results were as much a reflection of that as her race record. There was enough history in ROB's female family to be reasonably assured she'd get a runner (and she proved that with her first foal being a stakes winner). The same cannot be said for Peppers Pride.

I'm sorry, but in my opinion anyone who would be willing to pay six figures for a foal from this mare, regardless of the sire, before she's proven she can out breed her pedigree like she's managed to outrace it, kind of falls under the heading of "a fool and his money..."

In my opinion, it speaks well of her owner that he is contemplating leaving her in the state-bred program. He could've run her outside the state, or even in state in open company, and chose not to. Prior to this last race, there was no real indication (Beyer-wise) that she had the class to be successful in open allowance company at a major track. That tells me he has a far superior grasp of her ability as a runner and I suspect he has the same logical understanding of her prospects as a broodmare.

And the only real reason a quality sire is under $35k is because he doesn't consistently get six figure yearlings. Personally, "Commercial sire" is a four letter word. I dream of a day it and "breed to sell" are stripped from the industry's lexicon. The fact that consultants even have to ask if a client is breeding to race or breeding to sell is disturbing. I would hope all breeders are breeding to race, I've been around long enough to know better.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

JP — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 04:55:22 GMT

Mr. Porter if you could chose any stallion in the U.S. regardless of the cost and you were going to run the foal, what would it be?

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Racingfan — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 02:34:34 GMT

Mr. Porter, I would be interested in how Pepper's Pride would do with Nobiz Like Shobiz but I didn't see his name on the list. Any way to know? Also what do you think of Albert The Great if they don't want to spend a lot, or Any Given Saturday if they want to go a bit higher?

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Alan Porter — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 00:20:36 GMT

I'm not assuming that any foal will be sold. I was just answering the question in the format that was presented.

In any case looking at the hypothetical commercial value of what you are creating is a good discipline, and one I still employ for owner/breeders. It never hurts to consider whether you are creating an animal, that the day it goes into training, is likely to be worth what it cost.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Reality Check — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 19:38:16 GMT

I'd still like to know why you all are assuming she (or any mare) is going to be bred for a sales foal. Have they ever intimated they would sell her or her foals?

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Alan Porter — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 17:18:50 GMT

To answer a couple of the recent posts. Tiznow with Peppers Pride wouldn't be completely impossible. It does bring together In Reality and Fappiano (excellent in general, because of the duplication of Rough'n Tumble), but the Relaunch branch hasn't been the best avenue for that combination. In terms of aptitude it might be a good combination.

To answer AP (no relation!): the fact that other countries would not have listed the restricted races, is a bit of a red-herring. If there were no state-bred program, she would still have probably been running in stakes that would have drawn a regional field, or have been sent elsewhere to run in stakes. Given her 1:09 and change/98 Beyer Speedfigure for her most recent effort (and a 95 back in the pp's), if she'd have been on a bigger circuit, she might have lost a few, but she might also have been a graded stakes winner - that kind of effort is going to win plenty of black-type.

From a commercial standpoint - have a look at the record of the Ohio-bred restricted stakes winner, Roll Over Baby, and how her progeny have sold. If it comes to a yearling sale, Peppers Pride herself is going to fill most of the page. As far as pedigree/race record goes, it would be absolutely no problem for her to produce a commercially viable yearling by a $100,000 sire.

With regard to Mineshaft - I know he has Casino Drive from the family of the sire of Peppers Pride, but that one is out super-producer Better Than Honour. So, why go to a stallion that has yet to prove himself, when you can go to Pulpit, a proven top-class horse bred on the same cross? At this stage, with the mare having bankrolled a million, why cut corners?

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

AP — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 08:41:32 GMT

Let us look at this mating with minimal emotion. 3 years from now, assuming the mare gets in foal in a few months time, the world will be presented with a yearling by Peppers Pride. On the catalogue page there will be her earnings and the fact that she has won restricted races in New Mexico. In most countries this filly would not even be seen as blacktype with Listed winner being the minimum requirement. Her catalogue page will probably go down to 4th dam (Lady Pepper SS1 = 0.22, Lady Chanel SSI=0.09 and Fair Perfume SSI=0.43). Broodmare sire would be the unraced Desert God who is less than stellar. It will not be a brilliant catalogue page for sure. Still we have to mate her so let us look at the part of her pedigree that has been successful. I think I would focus on Desert God's dam Blush With Pride and her daughter Better Than Honour and focus on what worked with them. Deputy Minister, Ap Indy feature but I think I might be tempted to try Mineshaft. I know this will be 3x4 Mr Prospector but I see this as a positive, the list of top horses inbred Mr Prosector continues to grow, rather than a negative.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

JP — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 05:54:56 GMT

Mr Porter, what about Tiznow?

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Northwind — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 01:52:47 GMT

I think Pepper's Pride deserves the opportunity to be bred to the best proven stallion that matches her conformation and bloodline, and any other considerations.

I seem to recall shades of a similar racemare, with a nice race record, from very unfashionable bloodlines. Her owner's dream was to breed her to one of the best stallions of the times. Useeit was bred to Black Toney, and Black Gold made history, winning the Kentucky Derby, dusting all the fashionable, classy pedigreed colts in that year. With fond memories, we have a great story, in thoroughbred history, almost 100 years later, because the owner of a lowly mare had a dream, and made it happen.

Wouldn't it make another great story? Maybe the odds are against her, but Pepper's Pride deserves the chance.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

LL — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 17:35:35 GMT

So what if they only make money on her first 3 foals? If the first three dont pan out you are back to where you started.Then you can breed to a regional sire. I am sure these people ( like many of us ) have spent years putting money and labor into horses that didnt pan out. Why not take full advantage of the gift/opportunity that they have? I would look for a foal share to a top stallion. How about a Darley stallion and they could sell the foal at the Nov. Fasig Tipton select sale.

Opportunities to Run FREE Thoroughbred Nick Reports - Racehorse Breeding and Pedigree Analysis

TrueNicks — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 13:47:12 GMT

Yesterday's 15 posts on the TrueNicks blog introduced readers to several new stallions, making 2009 breeding decisions just a little bit easier.

re: Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Alan Porter — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 05:17:20 GMT

Reality Check: You've obviously never been near some of my discussions with my clients! The reason I get paid is to tell them what I think, not what I think they need to hear.

Much of the work I do is for professional breeders, and I've been involved in strategic business planing the industry for a good 25 years.

From that viewpoint, I still believe that - given her $1,000,000 bankroll - it makes sense to try Peppers Pride with the best proven stallions available that fit her bloodlines and conformation.

There might be some useful sires in the $5,000 - $15,000 range, but as far as proven horses are concerned, they are in that price range for a reason.

I have no doubt that on her best form, Peppers Pride was capable of winning graded stakes at six furlongs. Graded stakes winning fillies with light pedigrees get bred to high-level stallions all the time without comment...the controversy only stems from the fact that she is a high-profile horse who ran in restricted company...if she was an "ordinary" grade three winning sprinter, no one would think her visting Giant's Causeway or Pulpit worth a comment.