Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

Chris — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 05:05:59 GMT

Hi,

Pohave another illustration of Khaled working with the Bull

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

Chris — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 03:11:26 GMT

Hi,

Look at the Lite the Fuse horse Going Ballistic. Supports the Khaled theory. Not to mention Macho Uno had a high seller some months back in florida out of a Lite the Fuse mare.

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

dave lugli — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 13:53:44 GMT

the numbers dont add up

a to a++ = 13% of the population

b to a++ = 30%---so b to b+ = 17%

c to f = 44%

your rankings a++ to f only add up to 74% of the population but your program purports to cover 100%

where is the missing 26%

Scot's reply: Your calculations are correct -- but you're missing one piece of information. TrueNicks has a C+ rating that accounts for the remaining 26% of matings. The C+ score is a broad band; it indicates that the nick is slightly more likely than average to yield stakes-quality foals. While the TrueNicks system is not calibrated directly on a "bell curve," it's expected that the largest percentages of nicks will rate "average."

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

Alan Porter — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 03:07:56 GMT

I'd need some time to check what percentage of the mares sent to Macho Uno had Khaled in pedigree, but I doubt it would be as high as even 20%.

I would suspect that there is some haplotype (gene group) that is in both Blushing Groom and Khaled, and maybe, with Khaled being so far back in some of the pedigrees, what's being picked up is other gene groups which have an affinity, rather than the common haplotype per se. It's pretty strange, whatever the cause.

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

outsider — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 04:01:54 GMT

Amazing that all stakes winners have Khaled. But, other than Macho Again, Kahled is several generations back.

Hard to overcome skepticism when ALL is used in genetics. The chances that this stallions special trait transfers through so many generations assuming 50/50 at each mating are so small. Could this be some dominate/mutated gene? Could this be a Nick?

Of all Macho Again racing offspring, how many have Kahled? ie Do these 4 represent 100%? 50%?Is this some statistical fluke related to sample size?

Nick or statistical fluke, still AMAZING.

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

thomas marceda — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 03:55:55 GMT

very intreasting just saying for the record milwaukee brew won the santa anita handicap twice not the derby. but wow who would have thought these two lines would be great maybe not the next northern dancer and mr prospector but maybe damascus and buckpasser cross

Scot's reply: Thanks for the comment -- and the correction. I've updated it in the original article.

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

Alan Porter — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:05:13 GMT

Hi Ryan. A good question, and the answer is, only time will tell. However, I believe that it is probably a case of a genuine genetic affinity. Holy Bull seems to do well with Blushing Groom (granddam closely related to Khaled). His son, Macho Uno, has Khaled in the dam's off all of his stakes winners (it it is not THAT common a strain). Given those two things, it seems likely that Holy Bull and Wild Again are going to like to combine. Given that Adena Springs were big fans of both horses, there should be plenty of opportunity.

re: Tomorrow's Nick Today -- Milwaukee Brew and Holy Bull

Ryan — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:48:26 GMT

Alan is this an up coming nick or is this a cross that is bound to have stakes winners because there will be so many crosses to these studs?