Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

Annette Jackson — Mon, 06 May 2013 02:17:34 GMT

Would a filly who bled through Lasix in some of her races be likely to pass on that characteristic to her offspring? Should she be used as a broodmare at all? Are there any known stallions whose offspring are known to NOT bleed or to stengthen a mare's offspring in regards to bleeding?

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

Ian Tapp — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 20:36:25 GMT

Hal,

Henry of Navarre was such a failure/disappointing/poor/not good stallion that he was donated (given away) to the U.S. Army to breed warmblood cavalry mares.

Many failed stallions have daughters who trace to important horses several generations later, which isn't surprising with Henry of Navarre since his first books would have included many nice mares from good families. He has daughters in tail female of Vice Regent, Miswaki, and Shut Out, but that doesn't retroactively make his bad stud career good.

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

Hal Dane. — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 19:30:23 GMT

IAN.,

I don't know why you say that Henry Of Navaree was a failure at stud.. without him.. there would be no Brilliant Speed or Caleb's Posse, two of the horses you visited.

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

sceptre — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 21:31:47 GMT

Hi Ian,

I'll try to be a bit more clear about one of my points:

All else equal, consider two hypothetical foals out of the same mare, a mare with, say, a single occurrance of Mr. P. in her 3rd. The mare is first mated to Flower Alley, and the subsequent foal would be 4(s) x 4(s) x 4(d). She is then mated to another stallion who has a single occurrance of Mr. P. in his 2nd. This resultant foal would be 3(s) x 4(d). Let's also presume that a 4(Mr. P.) x 4(Mr. P.) vs a 3(Mr. P.) are equal relative to the amount of Mr. P. genetic "material". For the above case, I feel that the 4x4x4 through Flower Alley would likely be SAFER (relative to recessive gene negative implications) than the above, 3x4. Reason- some % of Flower Alley's possessed Mr. P. recessive genes have already been "tested" in the performer, Flower Alley himself, and as evidenced by his level of performance have been found, all else equal, SAFER, than are (as a group) the less "tested" Mr. P. in 2nd genes (alternative stallion). What do you think?

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

L. Howls — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 13:01:48 GMT

Good point Ian, the Square Root of 16 is 4 which I think is very significant.

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

Ian Tapp — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 01:40:02 GMT

Hi Anne,

It's not significant because only 20% of Flower Alley's starters (32 of 155) have Mr. Prospector within four generations (three generations of the dam). Assuming normal distribution, only 20% of his graded winners should have Mr. Prospector within four generations, but one of four (Neck 'n Neck) does, which is 25%.

Separating out Mr. Prospector within four generations of the starter (three generations of the dam), Flower Alley has 21 winners from 32 starters (65%), which equals the rate of all other starters, 81 winners from 123 starters.

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

Anne Peters — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 01:11:37 GMT

Run your stats separating out the Mr. Prospector crosses from the other Raise a Native crosses, because the issue has always been his 3x3 inbreeding to Mr. P, NOT 4x4 crosses to Raise a Native. It's significant that only 1 of his 4 Graded winners so far has additional Mr Prospector and that the dam of his champion I'll Have Another is an outcross. If his Graded runners have less Mr. Prospector than his non-graded stakes winners, that's significant, and they do, 3 to 1.

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

sceptre — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 18:35:41 GMT

Re-Flower Alley's offspring, it doesn't appear that the Mr. P.-Raise A Native additions (through their dams) are "close". Flower Alley is, himself, closely inbred, and was a mating I would have avoided. The fact that it "worked"-this time- may well say something about the relative risks of biting back to those lines THROUGH FLOWER ALLEY. The correct course, in his case, may still be beyond us, but may rest in our present genetic knowledge, and probability computational skills. I did note your winners/starters percentages, but not foals/starters percentages. Even should it be proven that close inbreeding pays off (given the fractured state of racing economics)-and I doubt that it will-, there's still the moral issue of increased wastage.

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

Robert — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 16:49:05 GMT

I took a look at the Bodemeister x Careless Jewell cross, and it is interesting. In bred 3x 4 to Unbridled, 3x4 to Storm Cat, and 4x4 to A.P. Indy. The interesting part to me is that each inbreeding is opposite sex balanced. Go back another generation and you have Mr Prospector 5x5 and he is balance inbreed to. I probably would have stayed away from this because of the Storm Cat inbreeding. He is not a horse I seek out to inbreed to.

I bred to Flower Alley last year (the mare slipped), and I have nothing but good things to say about him. His inbreeding does not bother me as he tends to look more like the Northern Dancer type and not Mr. P. I would love to get ahold of one of his daughters for future breeding. I believe Flower Alley is going to be a source of stamina that AMerican breeders could use.

re: Best Guesses Can Be Wrong

Karen in Indiana — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 14:50:13 GMT

I hope that Flower Alley continues to deliver on the promise he has shown. He is a horse that has both brilliance and stamina and seems to be passing that on to his offspring. Another of his traits that I enjoy is his personality. On one of my tours of Three Chimneys a couple of years ago, while everyone was passing him by to look at Dynaformer, he tossed his head and raced around like 'Look at me!'. When I held up my camera, he ran straight over, struck a beautiful pose and, after I told him thank you, he kicked up his heels and went tearing around showing off. I had to laugh!