Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Barb — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 17:11:48 GMT

I would like to point out that our trend of breeding for speed and precocity has not netted us a Triple Crown winner in 34 years. And I don't see one on the horizon this year either. It is a shame that breeding for distance and durability is so totally out of fashion in the US. But owners and breeders are looking a quick turnaround on their investment in their stock and fast, precocious 2 and 3 year olds give them quicker profits. Just the way it is.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Weekend Surprise — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 20:37:51 GMT

Thank you Darley for standing AK for the northern hemisphere season ! I love his breeding ,especially on his dams side ! Hopefully American breeders will take advantage of this opportunity !

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Mickeychelle — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 02:35:48 GMT

Yes, as mentioned AK is coming back to Darley for the northern hemisphere breeding season. Also, for distance influence...Don't forget about Candy Ride, as a sire!!!

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Weekend Surprise — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 02:35:22 GMT

There may never be another TC Winner as long as American breeders favor speed over stamina ! Horses such as Caleb's Posse , Bodemeister etc will take precedence over such sires like Lonhro , who can provide crucial outcrossing to the Mr Prospector / Northern Dancer Pedigrees. If The speed on speed trends continue , American breeders need to take a hard look at what they are doing wrong ! If breeders are trying to achieve fast win early type horses maybe they should try breeding Quarters

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Joel Zamzow — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 01:45:53 GMT

Swale1984,

I agree that Lines of Battle has one top notch female family, a Darby Dan family.Lots of Ribot and Roberto!!!!

All of my horses descend from their stock.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Weekend Surprise — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 22:41:50 GMT

swale1984 I agree with you 100% More Than Ready is not what I'd call a classic type sire ! His offspring seem to excel early and prefer 6 to 8 furlongs . Verrazano's saving grace seems to be on his dams side ! I feel that any 3yr old can go a classic distance if you give them enough time ! Look at Union Rags Belmont time , one of the slowest in recent memory !! If only I'll Have Another was sound that day !!!!

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Hal Dane. — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 16:03:25 GMT

SWALE... War Front was a poor racehorse..

War Pass.. was a better one, so it seems reasonable to surmise that Revolutionary will finish in front of Lines Of Battle in the Kentucky Derby, the latter guy ALSO has two crosses of Ribot.. so the dams don't come into the equation.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

swale1984 — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 03:55:31 GMT

I have a big problem with Verrazano's pedigree and 10-12 furlongs. First off, More Than Ready doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. In his top 5 earners, you have a winner of the Al Quoz Sprint, a winner in Australia at 6-8 furlongs, a winner at 6 furlongs, and another winner at 6 furlongs. The dam is also the dam of El Padrino, who won at a mile and seemed to flatten out after that distance.

The one that seems to be overlooked from a pedigree standpoint is Lines of Battle. He's by War Front (yes a sprinter/miler sire) but the dam is an Arch-sired 1/2 sister to Dynaformer. The distaff side of that pedigree includes Alydar, Ribot, His Majesty and Kris S. To me, that combination of speed and stamina will get the distance a lot more easily than Verrazano, Vyjack or Goldencents will.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 17:57:40 GMT

Paradox - Lemon Drop Kid is pretty busy these days. Birdstone gets a decent 6 dozen or so mares a year. Now we have to talk racing secretaries to write lower level races for them. Not every staying horse is cut out to be a stakes horse. You should see the variety of lengths of races at every level in Britain.

But then, there is the problem of the new generations of trainers who haven't learned how to train a horse for 10f+ on dirt. Wholesale distribution of Preston Burch's book? <grin>

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Stormy — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 17:34:58 GMT

Thank you to Darley for securing Animal Kingdom for the Northern Hemisphere. Finally we will have a stamina influence that remains available here.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Paradox — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 06:12:13 GMT

There was a time when you could look at a pedigree and say Kentucky Derby potential. But, Alas, with horses being by precocious sires who succeed at 8 to 9 furlongs and beating horses only capable of 6-7 furlongs .Then you come into the Derby and have to depend on racing luck and not getting a bad ride and hopefully winning by natural attrition of non traditional Derby bloodlines. The essence is what Mr.Prospector line horse is the most athletic and ready to run on Derby Day.

In Europe, you can settle on which horse is the most athletic and well trained among sons of Sadlers Wells. The A.P.Indy line has not yet had success in the derby and is more likely to be beat by a horse sired by unfashionable sire. When will someone break the mold and breed to stamina sire.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Alan Porter — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 00:55:03 GMT

The structure of U.S. racing, and the very nature of a mean average (the average used here), will tend to bring the figures into a fairly narrow range.

What I often find useful is to look at the average distance raced versus the average distance won over - if the average distance raced is shorter than the average distance won over, then it will tend to indicate a cross that is trending towards stamina (and we are only talking tendencies here, as even siblings can have different aptitudes).

The point about precocity made earlier in these comments is also an important one. There is a big difference between beating other three-year-olds over 10 furlongs in May, and an older horse at the same distance come Breeders' Cup time in the fall.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

sceptre — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 18:42:10 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

The phrase was "NEARLY incapable", and that he was- moreso than was the case for almost all others(with similar numbers of offspring). Who knows, part of the reason could be that he was particularly homozygous fast twitch, and/or factors related to (homozygously) cardio-pulmonary. Point was, the breadth of sire stats can sometimes offer meaningful clues. And, the topic here was KY Derby-a dirt race-, so you've found but one lone example on the dirt. Just take a look at the numbers of performers he had on dirt. On the opposite end, a Dynaformer, for one, had very, very few dirt sprinters-no matter their dam. One of his very few exceptions may have been Dynever-although the record may not indicate this. This exceptional son (now deceased) of Dynaformer may have been a greater loss to the breed than was Barbaro. No doubt this statement also will raise some hairs.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 17:25:57 GMT

Sceptre -

Have you looked closely at Crafty Prospector's sire record? His best runners include -

Amarillo - Delaware H (10f) out of an Apalachee mare!

Mr. Bluebird - Red Smith H (11fT)

Agnes Digital - Autumn Tenno Sho (2000mT)

Not incapable of siring distance winners. Other top ones were sprinters and milers. The good CPs were all over the block in distance limitations.

Now on the other hand, Apalachee..., oops he did sire an Alabama winner (from a stoutly-bred mare), so even he doesn't qualify as 'incapable'.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Ian Tapp — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 02:26:42 GMT

Mike M,

Good point. Young sires will tend to have lower AWDs compared to established sires because their offspring are just beginning their careers. Looking at the broader cross, that effect will be mitigated somewhat by their sires' older progeny.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

OhioTBred — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 01:13:24 GMT

By the way, my pick in future book 1 was (and still is) Revolutionary. Verrazano is the horse I think beats him if he doesn't win.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

OhioTBred — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 01:02:51 GMT

I am a big follower of bloodlines, statistics and race records. One thing I think may be overlooked here though is the physical appearance of the horse. Verrazano is a large, imposing athlete. Moreso than most of his competition. So, while his pedigree numbers may not match the distance, I believe that his physical stature does. Reminds me of comparing Lebron James to a top player. Just looks the part.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Mike M — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 00:14:47 GMT

I agree with the comments of Pedigree Anne. It also occurs the me that the figures, while useful, are a bit misleading (though perhaps necessarily so) with regard to young sires such as Midnight Lute and Lawyer Ron. Their progeny are just now coming of age and perhaps have not had as much opportunity to run a longer distances. As their crops age on out, we may see their numbers climb up and not be so unduly influenced by two year old performances (which are generally at shorter distances).

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Ian Tapp — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 22:29:15 GMT

SOUTHBENDFARM,

Regarding Animal Kingdom/Barry Irwin, the Northern Hemisphere farm hasn't been announced yet but likely will be announced very soon. It could (almost certainly will) be in Kentucky. Team Valor has said they will support the horse at stud; as you know they breed globally, so I'd imagine they'd send mares to him in both hemispheres.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

sceptre — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 21:27:29 GMT

I wouldn't be so quick to denegrate the apititude component of the TrueNicks Enhanced Report, as it may be the best single tool for this purpose-aptitude evaluation. Any lone tool will have limitations, but for aptitude prediction made SIMPLE, the only real data with some statistical significance rests with sire, and to a lesser degree, broodmare sire stats. Perhaps another helpful "stat" could be the variation (spread) from high to low (long-short distance) from one sire to another. There's probably a statistical term for this. As example, let's say two sires (or sire/broodmare sire combinations) have the same AWD, but that the first sire (or combo) displays relatively little deviation from its mean, whereas the other evidences great variation. Knowing these values could have great relevance re-KY Derby predictions. Also keep in mind that there are some sires, say a Crafty Prospector, that seemed nearly incapable of siring a distance-type runner, no matter his mate. Lastly, it also occurs to me that while today's runners are less "distance-bred", they are also bred for greater precocity. This precocity is an asset for races such as the (relatively early) KY Derby.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Weekend Surprise — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 19:14:02 GMT

Florida Derby runner up Itsmyluckyday in my opinion , doesn't want any part of !0 furlongs ! His paternal grandsire Langfuhr was an excellent sprinter who did sire horses that could go long, Lawyer Ron , Wando etc. Itsmyluckyday seems to take after his dam's side . Doneraile Court was pretty much an 8 furlong horse.Itsmyluckyday's second dam Viva la Viva is by the sprinter Crafty Prospector . Many people don't bother with Dosage much anymore , but it does become very helpful when dealing with distance limitations . Itsmyluckyday's dosage profile is 3.00 / 4 3 7 0 0 no points in the Solid or Professional categories ! What do you think ?

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Stormy — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 19:06:05 GMT

MZ - Yes we continue to send our good distance horse elsewhere and it is a crying shame. Horses like Animal Kingdom and I'll Have Another should have been kept here.

It's another reason why we haven't have triple crown winners. I think AK could have done it if he hadn't been hurt at the start of the Belmont.

I think the best derby horse this year isn't even listed for derby point... Midnight Lucky - the filly. I think the new point system needs some serious work before it will truly work to provide top level horses to run in the race.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

SOUTHBENDFARM — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 18:54:36 GMT

MZ.....you are right about that. But correct me if I am wrong, but I thought Animal Kingdom was going to stud for the southern hemisphere in Aussey land, but then was supposed to be coming to Kentucky for the Northern hemisphere?? Is this not correct. If not....a special thankyou to Barry Irwin for doing exactly what he has been know to bag on other breeders for.....selling our top prospects instead of standing behind them at stud.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

mz — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 17:53:10 GMT

Hey Southbendfarm: it seems that we sell "Stayers" out of the market.

Animal Kingdom.

re: Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

SOUTHBENDFARM — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 17:18:14 GMT

As I look at this list of 3 year olds, one thing strikes me. 1/2 of this field has no business in the Derby. They simply will not stay the 1 1/4 miles. There is an old addage: If they aren't bred to get 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May, they won't get the distance. Case in point....Holy Bull. He was not bred to get 1 1/4 miles. His amazing abilities allowed him to get it 1 time....The Travers.....and he barely hung on there over Concern. 1/2 of this field simply does not have the breeding to get the distance....much less the Preakness or Belmont distance. Maybe we as breeders should start breeding for Belmont winners, and we might just get a horse capable of winning the Triple Crown, and then training on as a 4 and 5 year old and not have to be retired immediately after the Triple Crown.