Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Zelmo Z — Tue, 07 May 2013 18:17:54 GMT

Ian, your top three picks finshed 1-2-3. Well done.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Racingfan — Mon, 06 May 2013 16:47:06 GMT

Ian, great job on your "top 3 that will love the distance"!!!

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 06 May 2013 13:41:12 GMT

Ian you are my clone. Congrats for standing up for the principle that pedigree counts at 10f. Brave Normandy Invasion gave out just where one would have expected.

Unfortunately I didn't cash the tri. I only put Golden Soul in the third spot, while Revo, Orb and Mylute (mud play) were in all spots. Did have Orb across the board.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

JerseyTom — Sun, 05 May 2013 20:03:53 GMT

Nice blog Ian, and nice job.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Georgie B — Sun, 05 May 2013 06:56:42 GMT

I haad the trifecta also. i'm a firm believer in the True Nick approach. Keep up the good work.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Karen in Washington state — Sun, 05 May 2013 04:08:05 GMT

I'll second that, Ian, kudos on your analysis. I was all in for Orb. My Lute was actually my longshot pick and I think he ran pretty well.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

reinzi — Sun, 05 May 2013 04:01:05 GMT

bravo ! you did excellent.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Ian Tapp — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:39:25 GMT

Thanks, zuzuzpetals. Yes, I cashed... sometimes pedigree handicapping pays off!

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

zuzuzpetals — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:45:50 GMT

Top 3 that will love the distance: Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Orb

You were right on! Hope you cashed a ticket!

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Sat, 04 May 2013 03:59:44 GMT

Karen in Indiana:

Relative to their achievements (when racehorses), sons of Wild Again have performed quite well as sires.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Karen in Indiana — Fri, 03 May 2013 13:13:26 GMT

The top 2 picks in the Oaks have Wild Again on the bottom. Wild Again hasn't produced many sons that went on to be successful sires - Offlee Wild & Milwaukee Brew being his best. How has he been as a broodmare sire?

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

zuzuzpetals — Fri, 03 May 2013 02:29:41 GMT

I really had hoped Fear the Kitten would get in. A true longshot for part of the superfectas for sure. I'm keeping Black Onyx in mine, most likely keeping Revo on top. Every Derby winner since I've been following (2001) have tried other surfaces other than fast dirt prior to Derby i.e Turf, Wet and Synthetics. With that I am keeping Orb, Verazano, Normandy, OVerA and Golden Soul off my top. Anyway, I like your reports. Thank you for providing each year.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Ian Tapp — Fri, 03 May 2013 02:19:07 GMT

Hi Racingfan,

No, I'm not big on dosage figures (but for those who are, they are included on TrueNicks reports). I think watching a horse's races and looking at the family history tell you more about how they will handle more distance. I like Goldencents and think he can win, but perceived stamina is definitely not his top credential--it's his biggest risk, that he won't quite stay, like a Free House type.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Ranagulzion — Fri, 03 May 2013 01:54:45 GMT

Verrazano is the class horse in the Derby field. Johnny V is going to have him uncoiled in the Derby. The Wood Memorial run was for seasoning and experience. Although his sire More Than Ready throws mostly speed and turf runners he was a very good dirt horse himself, losing a hard fought Bluegrass Stakes battle on Keenland dirt to High Yield in 2000. I like the presence of Sea Bird in MTR's pedigree and Verrazano's class and stamina seems bolstered by inbreeding to Northern Dancer and Blushing Groom (a famous cross in "special one" Arazi). Dr Fager within five generations of the tail female family is further stamina insurance for the Derby distance. His primary dangers are Overanalyze (a well seasoned son of Dixie Union that is getting really good at the right time) and Itsmyluckyday (on sheer class alone).

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Thu, 02 May 2013 23:47:17 GMT

Much as last year, great analysis, Ian. It tended to "confirm" my thinking, so I'm weakly going with Revolutionary, Lines Of Battle, and Frac Daddy. I think the first two (named) could be real quality colts, but I don't like Borel on Revolutionary (Gomez would probably have been a good fit), and it's a bit early to be too sure about Lines Of Battle's quality (and dirt affinity). Had Footbridge performed in the Blue Grass, he would have been my pick.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

RACINGFAN — Thu, 02 May 2013 23:24:58 GMT

Ian, so I'm guessing you don't look at dosage figures? I do although I only use them as a guide along with other factors. Goldencents has a dosage index of 1.67 and a center of distribution of .38 which gives him plenty of distance capability...in fact well above the other 6 I checked: Verrazano is closest at 2.06/.69 then Frac Daddy 2.33/.90, with Revolutionary, Overanalyze and Itsmyluckyday all tied at 3.00/.78/.92/.79 and Orb at the highest 3.21/.75....?

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

johnsnare — Thu, 02 May 2013 22:42:37 GMT

Bravo, to all the commenter's. Great and intelligent assessment of the derby. Distance, is surely the major issue for most of the field. Oxbow,lines Of Battle, should have no problem negotiating the distance. My pic's, in no real order of finish.: Oxbow,Lines Of Battle,Palice Malice,Revolutionary,and Orb. Good Luck.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

GSOBadger — Thu, 02 May 2013 20:47:29 GMT

The real problem with the field is that once upon a time good horses drove the bad ones out of the Derby field. But now we seem to have reached the point where if a horse qualifies in the top 20, he runs. We need more owners and trainers who refuse to run their horses where they don't belong. Kudos to Baffert for choosing to sit out even though he had horse who could have gotten in. It will be interesting to see when a trainer finally gives a horse the schedule he deserves, comes into the Derby with 10 or 11 career starts and convincing wins over most of the contenders, if others will choose to stay home, or if they'll feel compelled to run anyway.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

VegasCowgirl — Thu, 02 May 2013 19:44:28 GMT

Amen on the idea of limiting the field size to 14; the 20-horse field makes the race a real crapshoot.. talk about needing your racing gods! I always liken it to panning for gold - one hopes the "real" (best horse) nugget(s) manage to stay in the sieve.

Any Oaks-Derby double thoughts? My heart fancies the gold swami angle - Rose to Gold to Goldencents - gotta love the story lines - a $1,500 yearling who has outrun predictions and Team O'Neill.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

derbylin — Thu, 02 May 2013 18:39:50 GMT

I so agree with Southbendfarm concerning the 20 horse field format. Half of them don't belong in the race. A true points system limiting the field to 14 would be the best.

Hope for a safe trip for all and the best horse wins.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Ian Tapp — Thu, 02 May 2013 18:38:19 GMT

Pharlap,

OK, here are my throw-outs: Black Onyx, Mylute, Giant Finish, Itsmyluckyday, Falling Sky, Charming Kitten, Vyjack

Most likely to improve on an off track: Frac Daddy

Suspect at the distance: Normandy Invasion, Goldencents, Verrazano

Should handle distance fine: Oxbow, Overanalyze, Palace Malice, Lines of Battle, Will Take Charge, Frac Daddy, Java's War

Top 3 that will love the distance: Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Orb

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

SOUTHBENDFARM — Thu, 02 May 2013 16:51:56 GMT

I said it before and I'll say it again. I have never seen a Kentucky Derby field with so many Grade III "placed" horses in all the years I have watched this race. In my opinion, 1/2 this field does not belong in the starting gate for the Derby. Hopefully a true Triple Crown candidate will win. If we have one more Triple Crown derailed by a 20 horse Derby field, I believe the discussion must start again about downsizing the field to 14 horses. Having 6 or 10 horses in the starting gate that don't belong only cheapens the race quality and hurts the chances of a horse who just might have what it takes to be a Triple Crown winner, but had to deal with 1/2 a field that was only in their way and blocked them from winning. This may sound harsh, but public opinion shows every year that goes by and we have no Triple Crown, horse racing popularity suffers.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Keep your powder dry — Thu, 02 May 2013 16:50:51 GMT

Pace makes the race and this one looks to be slow. That stated, I'm going to play against the speed fig 'cappers this year. Overanalyze is obviously talented and appears to be putting everything together at the right time. Itsmyluckday may be slightly distance challenged pedigree wise compared to some others here but there's no denying his athleticism which should put him in the race when it counts and may be enough at the end. These two won't be in the first tier on the tote board and stand to provide excellent value for the win if their morning lines of 15-1 hold.

I'm less certain about which horses to use underneath but think Revolutionary is a must use in this spot. If Oxbow hasn't been cooked on the pace and is on the lead or within striking position at the top of the stretch, he's a logical candidate to hold on for a piece. The other Lukas entry, Will Take Charge, also has some appeal to me here coming from off the pace. Despite drawing the 20th post, I might have also included Vyjack if not for the lung infection just a few weeks ago. Leaning towards Charming Kitten at a huge price as my fourth underneath.

Beholder with a little bit of Rose to Gold in the Oaks. Wise Dan in the Woodford Reserve. These with all of the Derby contenders mentioned in that triple.

Good luck.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

iceman92 — Thu, 02 May 2013 14:42:46 GMT

rev and will take are only ones from grade 1 winning dam as far as i can tell. lines of battle will benefit from moist track and is a cross to danzig. slow race last out but you rarely see a horse get passed by 2 runners that deep into the stretch, then blow by them both that close to the wire and begin to draw off. this horse has run further than the rest and won just like canonero 11 did in the 1971 derby (had won a mile and quarter race in south america prior to the derby). rev and orb ran races the same day at different tracks and both won. rev in real time 3/5 second better now factor the track equalization and rev wins by more than 10 lengths. i agree with your analysis that orb may be too slow especially if he does not get a perfect trip. results-1) rev 2)lines 3)palace 4)will take-good luck!

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Pharlap — Thu, 02 May 2013 11:48:39 GMT

Which horses will take to an off track?