A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Alfonso of spain — Mon, 01 Jul 2013 16:45:00 GMT

In the past I did something similar to Old Old cat. I created a coefficient that was the result of dividing AEI^2 by CI. If you analyse it like this, you will notice that there is a bigger stress in quality than simply dividing AEI/CI.

however, the best comparison I've found after many years of study is to compare the average timeform of the progeny of a sire, against the average timeform of the production of the mares covered by that stallion with other sires. The problem with dollars or Euros is that a Dubai world cup winner will change strongly the AEI of a stallion. Regarding time form or Better Speed figures, the difference between a brilliant g1 winner and a claimer is not so big in terms of number. If a mare has 7 products and one g1 winner bsf 120 and the others worth 80, the average for the mare is 85 which is quite true.

Regards

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Joltman — Fri, 10 May 2013 02:03:39 GMT

Relating to the above, the nicking analysis might be of special interest in that perhaps there were mares who were great runners but outperformed by broodmares who were lesser runners, but better nick ratings.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Joltman — Thu, 09 May 2013 17:14:19 GMT

In response to Old Old Cat, I appreciate your analysis. Your mention of Giants Causeway raises the question, I wonder if there is actually a correlation of the CI to the sires AEI. i.e. the general principle is "breed the best to the best..." but do the numbers add up, in general, all things considered? In the case of a Giants Causeway, does that great pool of mares actually produce superior runners? Does any sire maintain a knockout AEI when bred to mares with a CI over 3.0 or is regression to the mean inevitable? Finally, of that pool of mares that GC was bred to was it the great running mares that produced the standout runners? If so, it would be very helpful analysis because it would say to the lower class mare that breeding to such a sire might actually produce something special.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Weekend Surprise — Thu, 09 May 2013 04:08:40 GMT

Being a huge admirer of AP Indy , I was thrilled to see his grandson, Orb win the Derby ! Orb had the perfect Derby pedigree . It was also deeply moving to see Orb in the colors of Ruffian ,from whom he shares a direct female line family with !

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

old old cat — Wed, 08 May 2013 22:37:09 GMT

Due to my mathematical background, I use the formula 2*AEI-CI to give a quick evaluation of sires index (SI). What this does is to lower (or raise) the Sires index value (SI)by the difference between his AEI value and the mares CI. Think of a graph with three columns: (SI, AEI, CI) equally spaced. A straight line from CI through AEI will produce SI. Example AEI 1.5 CI 1.3 = SI 1.7. The sire is better than the other sires presented to that group of mares. Or AEI 1.5 CI 1.8 = SI 1.2 That sire is still above average, but the class of mares he receives inflates his AEI. This works in most cases and shows where farms have used their high class mares to build up their young stallions. One big anomaly in looking at stallions is Giants Causeway. His AEI is around 2.00, but the mares CI is around 3.00 which computes to Giants Causeway being 1.00, a very average sire. I think not!!!

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Byron Rogers — Wed, 08 May 2013 17:38:20 GMT

Joltman,

I agree. None are perfect but then it gets back to the concept of performance, it is not a single character/trait rather an amalgam of ability over certain distances, over certain ages, over certain tracks, etc.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

sceptre — Wed, 08 May 2013 15:24:41 GMT

The Comparable Index (CI) when compared with AEI is a particularly untrustworthy barometer for stallion performance when applied to elite-type stallions, especially those that went to stud with high reputations. These stallions generally receive the highest quality mates, many of whom are regarded as such due to their exceptional PAST produce records. Whille it is fairly common that some mares in the course of their production will produce an exceptional runner, or multiple high class runners-and these are the very mares so "cherry-picked"- it is extremely uncommon for these same mares to perpetuate that extreme degree of production performance-no matter their subsequent mate. As we have ever more evolved into a sales-oriented industry, this AEI/CI comparative has become all the less meaningful. The relevance, alone, of AEI is another matter, and it's undeniable that the elite stallions of the past, by and large, had higher AEIs. Just take a look at Bold Ruler's, and some others should you doubt this. This fact alone should telegraph the inherent shortcomings of AEI in stallion performance evaluation. There are probably several reasons for this apparent past vs present disparity ( better left for another time), and it's but one example of our mistake in relying on shortcuts vs intense study.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Cassandra.Says — Wed, 08 May 2013 14:48:45 GMT

I'm so disappointed. I thought that I would find herein an expanded explanation of the a.e.i., which is hardly explained by the usual squib. If, as is customary, a sire has horses racing in various countries with varying purse structures, how is the a.e.i. calculated? Is there an international value? Are Japanese earnings, say, pro-rated? Is the a.e.i. individualized for this factor?

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Joltman — Wed, 08 May 2013 13:38:44 GMT

Thanks for the solid analysis Byron, as always. I value the AEI/CI indices a lot, but are only one measure. The mare quality index has to be upgraded from a simple CI, if for no other reason that it deals only with runners, and a calculation of the percentage of runners from foals at least would help. Also, in terms of a broodmare, it would be interesting to see if number of starts would also imply longevity/soundness and hence imply the long term soundness of the animal. that of course is compromised by removal of the best mares from the pool who go immediately to the shed after quality G1 performances.

In terms of Derby winners, I think Fappiano is king and it may be true regarding general runners, placers in the classics as well. That the Fappiano line mares nick well with AP Indy would indicate that possibility of even stronger long term success in the classics for AP Indy.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Hal Dane. — Wed, 08 May 2013 09:13:50 GMT

I would think that the Russians were the first to recognize the worth of Malibu Moon..

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Byron Rogers — Tue, 07 May 2013 23:50:52 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Not sure we are going to agree on this....Bernardini won the Preakness and Rags to Riches won the Belmont and the Oaks, with Secret Status winning the latter also. Derby winner Super Saver is out of an A.P. Indy mare as is Oaks winner Plum Pretty. This is forgetting horses like Aptitude, Bodemeister, Ice Box, Nehro, Bluegrass Cat, etc (and I'm sure I am missing quite a few) with A.P Indy in three generations that performed well in the classic races.

Apart from Distorted Humor and maybe Unbridled, I’m not sure any individual stallion has been more represented in the pedigrees of placegetters in the American classic races past 15 years or so. As with a lot of sires his sire sons may have initially disappointed as sire sons but you also have to remember Mr Prospector did have Hello Gorgeous as one of his first sire-son representatives along with Fappiano.

Agree with you on Tapit though. He looks to be something special given opportunity, but then as flawed as the numbers are, they show that already.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

John Boyce — Tue, 07 May 2013 22:04:27 GMT

Couldn't agree more. With all our tools of evaluation, none tells the true story of opportunity. I always use AP Indy as the best reason NOT to trust AEI/CI comparisons. And the two measures used by MW - one measuring racing performance, and the other production – while useful completely disregard the young highly-bred mare who didn't make a name on the track.

That is why after extensive sampling we at Darley have developed our own rating that evaluates the complete pedigree as well as other well known and less well known environmental factors that play a part in the outcome of a particular mating.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Leila — Tue, 07 May 2013 21:33:08 GMT

Great article. I just adore all A.P. Indy line mares & stallions. He is truly one of the best sires around, and in my opinion is joining the ranks of such sire greats as Storm Cat & Mr. Prospector. -To name only a few names.

Lets all cross our fingers now that Orb can pull it out to win the TC!

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Ranagulzion — Tue, 07 May 2013 21:12:11 GMT

Byron,

Orb in the Derby and Princess of Sylmar in the Oaks represent a BREAKTHROUGH for the AP Indy sire line, not a solidifying of A.P. Indy as "the premier sire line source of classic speed in the North American Thoroughbred." AP Indy has been a source of stamina no doubt but not for the 3YO classics. His progeny including those of his sons have been hyped for many years but failed to deliver. Take a look at the list of Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners over the period that AP Indy was active as a sire and what you see is underachievement. Now there is a breakthrough and all of a sudden its the premier source of classic speed in North America ...give me a break. The AP Indy sire line has a far way to go to compete with the lines of Mr Prospector or his sire Raise A Native or his grandsire Native Dancer, as well as the Northern Dancer line in relation to being the source of classic speed (by classic speed I think you mean horses than effectively/successfully carry their speed over the classic distances). The AP Indy sire line have been notoriously late developers as 3YOs therfore lets put some proper perspective on the breakthrough.

Malibu Moon got off to a 'jack-rabbit' start in his stud career with Declan's Moon a few years back and has thrown some good ones, mostly fillies of which Devil May Care come readily to mind but he's not the best of the AP Indys. Tapit has produced Grade 1 quality more consistently and showed to propesity for the occassional special one IMO.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Gregg — Tue, 07 May 2013 20:15:25 GMT

Wonderful horse; Malibu Moon. Even better article. My compliments. I'll keep a sharp eye on Majestic Warrior, now that he has a major winnner.

re: A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

JorgeG — Tue, 07 May 2013 14:48:43 GMT

Very very nice article, very informative and very well explained. This is my favorite subject, thank you.