A Mega Nick for Discreet Cat

re: A Mega Nick for Discreet Cat

Ian Tapp — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 15:32:39 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

That's a good point about statistical significance. Ideally you would want 30+ raced foals before you were truly confident about a particular cross. The problem is, by the time you get those kind of numbers, the stallion will be prohibitively expensive, retired, or dead.

What I think most breeders want to know is whether or not a cross is capable of producing a superior runner. Will Discreet Cat sire 100% graded stakes winners if you breed him to 30 Marquetry mares? No, but the fact that he's two-for-two so far is compelling enough to deserve some attention from breeders. If I had a Marquetry mare that fit the profile for Discreet Cat, I'd certainly give the mating serious consideration.

re: A Mega Nick for Discreet Cat

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 13:27:26 GMT

P.S. As a mathematical statistician, I know well that small samples frequently give non-typical results. You need at least 30 outcomes (raced foals), without confounding factors like being out of the same mare, to assert with some certainty that the results of particular crosses are superior to random chance.

re: A Mega Nick for Discreet Cat

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 13:17:37 GMT

At one time, it was 2 graded SWs out of 3 foals for Benchmark (Alydar son) with Siyah Kalem (Mr. Prospector son) mares. The SWs were Brother Derek and Standard Setter (G3 Golden Gate Derby).

In the past, Round Table with Reneged mares did pretty well. Six foals, 3 SWs, 1 SP. It was two mares - Really Trying had 2 SWs from 2 Round Table foals, while Prodana Neveista had 1SW, 1SP from 4 Round Table foals.