Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

Alan Porter — Fri, 08 May 2009 01:46:47 GMT

Susan: I don't think it's bad. It's an A TrueNicks, and you get one or two interesting things, including a Northern Dancer/Sir Ivor cross through Curlin's dam and El Prado, which is good with the Cure the Blues and second cross of Sir Gaylord in the mare. Curlin and Roar (sire of the dam of the mare) are both Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer.

I actually like the A.P. Indy line with her.

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

Susan — Thu, 07 May 2009 16:44:50 GMT

What do you think of the fact that Jess Jackson has purchased Rachel Alexandra with the thought of breeding her to Curlin after her racing career is over? What do you think of that cross?

Tied Together -- Birdstone, Medaglia d'Oro, and Musket Man

TrueNicks — Wed, 06 May 2009 10:56:55 GMT

Several recent posts inspire us to take a quick look at some similarities -- perhaps coincidental -- between the pedigrees of Birdstone, Medaglia d'Oro, and Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) third Musket Man.

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

sceptre — Wed, 06 May 2009 01:48:34 GMT

Dear Mr. Porter:

Yours was an excellent explanation and much appreciated. + haplotype concentration and/or possession of relatively rare +alleles is often the Rx for breeding stock success, and often a proper rationale for inbreeding/linebreeding. One would think a (for example) Crimson Saint to be a likely vehicle for such, but results thus far appear to suggest otherwise.

I chose the name Sceptre out of great admiration for this fine racemare, and its pleasant sound. Have far greater admiration for Tom Fool and Buckpasser, but they are far less pleasing sonically.

Thank you.

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

Alan Porter — Wed, 06 May 2009 00:02:15 GMT

Sceptre: first, vive la difference, which is what makes this game somewhat interesting.

El Prado/Mr. Prospector produced a lot of stakes winners (around 13 or 14 I think, from memory), but wasn't exceptional in percentage of stakes winners relative to starters, compared with either El Prado's success with other sire lines, or the Mr. Prospector that were bred to El Prado, when they were bred to all other mares.

Medaglia d'Oro, however, at the moment has a very good strike rate with Mr. Prospector line mares, and has two stakes winners from two starters out of mares by Roar.

As far as Rachel Alexandra's - obviously phenomenal - ability and it's source, we can't prove any hypothesis. She's probably of comparable talent to her sire, and an upgrade on her dam. That's something that applies to a very small percentage of horses, even those with talented parents. Somewhere on a line of odds from around 5-1 (A.P. Indy with a compatible high-class mare) to several thousand to one, any two horses might produce a graded winner - the quality of the gene pool isn't much different between any of them four or five generations back.

From long, long observance of pedigrees, however, it does seem that good horses tend to have patterns involving genetic relatives. The Sir Ivor/Drone/Sir Gaylord/Cure the Blues one is one you would expect to work - something very similar happened with Golden Missile over an El Prado mare (we had predicted AP Indy/El Prado as a cross).

So, I would say that the fact that Medaglia d'Oro appears to be a very good sire suggests that a lot of what made him special is concentrated in relatively few haplotypes, rather than scattered through the genotype); that Rachel Alexandra's dam was a well above average performer; and that the pedigree has several interesting hook ups in the background, not least of which is Sir Gaylord/Cure the Blues (with the other relationships surrounding it), all played their part.

By the way, your pen name reminds me of the motto of Robert Standish Sevier's paper after he had been forced to sell Sceptre "I have no Sceptre, but I have a pen" --- I guess these days he'd have been a blogger!

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

Alan Porter — Tue, 05 May 2009 21:30:30 GMT

HorseFirst: you're spot on: I referred to this a bit in the "Pedigree Consultants" blog item -

pedigreeconsultants.com/.../derbys-all-mine-weekend-classic-review

which in part said "we have to report some similarities (perhaps, coincidental) between the pedigrees of Birdstone, Medaglia d’Oro and Kentucky Derby third, Musket Man. As we’ve mentioned, Birdstone’s sire, Grindstone, is out of a mare by Drone (three-parts-sister to Lady Capulet), and his granddam is by Silent Screen. Medaglia d’Oro’s granddam is also by Silent Screen (his granddam is inbred 3 x 4 to Silent Screen’s grandam, Sunday Evening. She was by Eight Thirty, which is interesting, as he is a genetic relative to War Relic, who we’ve said was closely combined with a sister in the dam line of Rachel Alexandra). Musket Man is by Yonaguska (who carries Drone and his genetic relative Halo), and his third dam is half-sister to both Silent Screen and to the fifth dam of Medaglia d’Oro."

Editor's note: HorseFirst & Alan, you're ahead of me by about a half-day. That part of Alan's analysis is slated to go up on the blog in the morning! -- Scot

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

sceptre — Tue, 05 May 2009 20:58:26 GMT

Appreciate your reply, and understand if you're not able to respond again.

I questioned the A++ rating, because you implied that the results of the El Prado on Mr. P-line mares' cross had been less than stellar. One would assume that the data from this cross would form much of the basis for your rating. No doubt your system did indeed grant this an A++, so I am questioning the validity of your "system". How else is one able to approach this, since none are privy to the intracacies of said system? We are asked to accept it as a predictive tool at face value. We are aware that it is derived from past data, but its potential validity lies in its future predictive results (still to be seen).

As to R. A.: Your reply was somewhat interesting, and I could debate the relevance of the examples offered. For now, I'll again posit that it's rather more logical (genetically) to conclude that my scenario is the more likely one here. You seem to be rather wedded to your prevailing line of reasoning.

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

HorseFirst — Tue, 05 May 2009 19:43:21 GMT

Fifth dam, Native Go Go, out of Ro Dear out of Ellen's Best, who was sired by War Relic. Ellen's Best third dam, The Sward, was out of Speed Boat, a full sister to War Relic. At that point in time, that line was intensified.

Medaglia D'Oro's dam sire line comes down from Sword Dancer and Swoard Dancer's dam line has Speed Boat also.**

Speed Boat over Speed Boat, albeit a ways back. But it is my belief that that kind of inbreeding tends to carry some lasting influences. Consider Domino, whose dam line was very inbred. (For better and worse, IMHO, where the Domino line is concerned)

Cappucino Bay, dam of Medaglia D'Oro, carries the mare Sunday Evening, by Eight Thirty, twice in the dam line, with more Fairy Gold/MOW/Rock Sand going on there.

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

Alan Porter — Tue, 05 May 2009 18:52:52 GMT

There's no contradiction. The cross of Medaglia d'Oro over mares by Roar generates an A++.

What I am indicating in the next paragraph is that - to my eyes - anyway, there is no one clearly definable reason that Medaglia d'Oro should particularly like Roar mares (there are a number of potentially complimentary factors, such as the well-placed Northern Dancer inbreeding - which of course would apply with any Northern Dancer line horse - more Ribot, and some Turn-to/Hail to Reason, and Princequillo, who are both good with Ribot, for obvious reasons).

I don't think we have a vain search for for potential contributing factors. Better than 25 years ago, when I was working for Mr. B. R. Firestone, we had a grade one winner filly called Gaily Gaily, who was by Cure the Blues out of a mare by a son of Sir Gaylord (and thus combined the genetic relatives very close up in the pedigree).

I also wrote a complete article some time ago about the various combinations of the genetic relatives Stop the Music (sire of Cure the Blues), Sir Ivor (by Sir Gaylord, and the broodmare sire of El Prado, in turn sire of Medaglia d'Oro), Drone (three-parts-brother to the dam of Medaglia d'Oro) and Halo.

It's not terribly surprising, therefore, to see a horse with Sir Ivor through a three-parts-sister to Drone, work with Cure the Blues, especially when bolstered with another cross of Sir Gaylord, and the presence of My Babu and Ambiorix II to with Turn-to.

Of course the fact she is by what is turning out to be a very good sire of fillies, out of a good racemare, can't hurt.

re: Classic Review -- Rachel's Romp

sceptre — Tue, 05 May 2009 17:27:31 GMT

Honest, it isn't my intent to be a thorn in your side, but at times I have difficulty embracing your observations. In your 3rd paragraph, you mention that Rachel Alexandra is TruNicks rated A++, yet in your next paragraph you appear to offer evidence to the contrary...Lastly, you appear to be searching in vain to discern a "pattern" to account for Rachel Alexandra's great success. I suggest that, unlike many, Rachel Alexandra's pedigree (sans your observable patterns, nicks, etc.) contains sufficient potential for this result. Her dam, Lotta Kim was quite talented in her own right, and was one of the well-bred and good-siring Roar's better race fillies. Rachel Alexandra is just her first foal, so who knows what's in store for Lotta Kim as a producer. Right on the surface there's enough there where one could envision that a fortuitous spin of the genetic wheel might produce such as a R.A. Dynamics such as these are likely often the cause.