Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Sandra K. Snider — Tue, 22 Oct 2013 12:46:20 GMT

I am coming late to this party, having just received notice of the topic (thanks, Byron), but I find this parenthetical comment to be the most interesting part of Alan's post:

"(First Defence, Dunkirk, and Midshipman all rather intrigue as all are out of accomplished runners from the Seattle Slew line, a cross that was generally not spectacular for Unbridled's Song, and we wonder if that means that they might represent something phenotypically or genotypically different from their predecessors)."

Alan, if someone were to point a pistol at your temple, would you plump for phenotype or genotype? I ask this question as a huge fan of First Defence, whose get strike me as being remarkably consistent for good looks.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

sceptre — Wed, 21 Aug 2013 15:00:52 GMT

Byron,

We said earlier that the rationale is complicated and doesn't lend itself well to a blog. But, for you and some others who already have a decent enough grasp of genetics and pedigree background the following "short-hand" comments might clear this up a bit:

Take a look at your most recent response. You acknowledge that mere variants on the X chromosome could be enough to cause what we call an "elite broodmare sire". You also agree that the autosomal chromosomes (the non X or Ys) likely each carry more performance related genes than the X. Why then can't you easily envision cases whereby certain sires possess autosomal chromosome variants which contain performance related characteristics which ALONE (without need of the relatively meager X) are sufficient to carry the day, "sire of sire"-wise?

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Byron Rogers — Wed, 21 Aug 2013 12:54:22 GMT

Ranagulzion,

"War Front from the Danzig branch makes an interesting case because he was just an average stakes winner (Grade 2 sprinter) ..."

Actually, War Front just shows the fallacy of the graded stakes system as a measure of genetic merit (as does Distorted Humor, Broken Vow, Exchange Rate, Stormy Atlantic, etc). In terms of actual genetic merit, and their ability to pass on class as a trait to their foals, there is not a lot of difference between G1 and G2 winners, especially G2 winners like War Front and Distorted Humor who won at that level in open company.

"...and he looks like the American version of Danehill who was himself nothing special as a racehorse."

Danehill was actually a very good racehorse. He set a track record when he won the Cork & Orrery Stakes at Royal Ascot (now known as the Golden Jubilee) and was a Gr1 winning sprinter (Beating older horses as a 3yo) and classic placed. I'd hardly call him "nothing special".

In regards to Broodmare sire of sires, as in Secretariat (Storm Cat, AP Indy, Gone West, Dehere, etc), I haven't done enough work on that aspect to comment either way.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Byron Rogers — Wed, 21 Aug 2013 12:41:56 GMT

Sceptre,

Almost all the performance related genes are located on Chromosomes other than Y or X. The only reason I say that there is the potential for a Broodmare Sire effect, and I believe they do exist, is that there are additional variants associated with elite performance that are on the X chromosome. Thus, daughters of these sires must get at least one copy of these variants (and thus have the potential to pass it on to their offspring) while, the sons of these sires don't get it. This is why I think that the concept of an elite Broodmare sire, like a Buckpasser, has the potential to exist. That said, in regression models and neural networks the X variants don't rank nearly as high as other variants on other chromosomes.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Hal Dane. — Tue, 20 Aug 2013 08:19:34 GMT

Just an interest.. When you consider the other male lines in competition with him at the time.. of the top ten in the Sires Table of 1761, NINE were sons of the Godolphin Arabian, the first five were, Regulus, Cade, Blank, Blossom and Babraham.. was he a Sire-of-Sires..?

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

sceptre — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 21:02:39 GMT

Ranagulzion:

Wish to make this clear--I absolutely agree with Byron that we lack HISTORICAL EVIDENCE to claim that any sire is/was what we call a true "sire of sires". The variables involved are simply too multiple. So no, I couldn't say with any confidence that even a Northern Dancer, etc. was a true bone fide "sire of sires". On the other hand, I'm rather certain that some stallions did possess the genetic makeup to be capable of being true sire of sires. It's just virtually impossible to identify them.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

sceptre — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 20:11:51 GMT

Byron,

Other than the Y chromosome, there are undoubtedly as many performance variants on all other chromosomes as there are on the X chromosome. It therefore follows that your "reservations" should be the same whether it be elite broodmare sire or "sire of sires".

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Ranagulzion — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 18:46:51 GMT

sceptre 17 Aug 2013 7:34 PM

We've seldom agreed on these blogs but your reaction to Byron's post 17 Aug 2013 12:21 PM certainly resonates with me ...wonders never cease (LOL). BTW you could add Deputy Minister to your catalogue of exceptional broodmare sires.

Byron,

I'm not conversant with the existing research into "heritable genetc component to stallion success" but when one looks at the stallion successes of certain branches of the Northern Dancer line for example, namely Sadler's Wells (Galileo, Montjeu, El Prado, Medaglia 'Oro, In The Wings) and Danzig (Green Desert,Danehill,Redoute's Choice and now War Front) it should be easier to be a believer that there's something inheritable to do with sire of sires, as in that sireline. War Front from the Danzig branch makes an interesting case because he was just an average stakes winner (Grade 2 sprinter) ...and he looks like the American version of Danehill who was himself nothing special as a racehorse. I look forward to a response on this point from yourself, sceptre, Allan or any other interested reader.

Another interesting observation of mine along the same line of inheritable component is the question of Secretariat as broodmare-sire of sires (whose broodmare sire, Pincequillo was also notable in that department - Mill Reef/Shirley Heights, Fort Marcy and Prince John), having seen the stud performances of the likes of A P Indy (Bernardini etc), Storm Cat (Cat Thief etc), Lost Soldier (Lost In The Fog), Atticus (High Fly), and Perfect Soul (Perfect Shirl). Has any research been done on this?

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Byron Rogers — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 18:42:26 GMT

Sceptre,

I don't hold similar reservations about elite broodmare sires. They exist. We've done enough DNA to know that there are variants within genes on the X chromosome that have some impact on performance which in turn would make the prospect of an elite broodmare sire real, even within the reservation of how complex athletic performance seems to be.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

sceptre — Sat, 17 Aug 2013 23:34:21 GMT

Byron:

Much of your reservations in deeming a sire a true "sire of sires" should apply to our labeling a sire a truly elite broodmare sire. But, after considering all variables, there does appear to have been SOME exceptional broodmare sires-Tom Fool, Buckpasser, and Seeking The Gold come readily to mind. If you grant this, it should follow that some sires have had the capability, or have indeed been what we label as "sires of sires". The fact that we have insufficient tools by which to identify them beforehand shouldn't be confused with the fact that they exist. Some truly elite broodmare sires can be identified in retrospect; perhaps, even in retrospect, we are unable to identify the true "sire of sires", but likely they have existed.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Byron Rogers — Sat, 17 Aug 2013 16:21:44 GMT

Ranagulzion,

"I regard a sire of sires as a stallion that gets many sons that become producers of stakes winners".....that is a popularity contest. A great sire is going to have more sons retire to stud on a commercial basis alone, regardless of the genetic merit of each of them, and because breeders believe in the concept of "sire of sires", and the hope that the son will be as good at stud as the father, they will support these sons with good mares that will allow them to be "producers of stakes winners". That doesn't make the stallion a sire of sires.

"Why doubt that some stallions have a propensity to produce sons that sire high class horses?"....because that infers that there is a heritable genetic component to stallion success. What I am saying is that there is not. Otherwise you'd have a handful of so called "sire of sires" completely dominating the breed in no time.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Ranagulzion — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 22:40:19 GMT

Hal, Byron & Sceptre,

Very interesting discussion on here.

I regard a sire of sires as a stallion that gets many sons that become producers of stakes winners. I noted that Byron's definition of successful sires is not very different from mine: "Stallions become successful because they can sire high class horses." Why doubt that some stallions have a propensity to produce sons that sire high class horses?

I understand his analysis of Mr Prospector, Danzig, Danehill and Storm Cats respective performance statistics but see some incongruence between his definition and the point of the analysis - skepticism of the concept of sire of sires.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Byron Rogers — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 15:09:24 GMT

Sceptre,

I agree, way too complicated....

If I read what you are writing correctly, you are suggesting the transmission of conserved blocks of DNA passing from the sire to his sons and then from the son to his offspring. That is possible, but it still wouldn't account for why so many sons of superior stallions fail and why a stallion like Alydar has next to no sons become successful, no matter how good they were as runners nor the opportunity they received.

There are a lot more variables involved, one of which certainly is the quality of mares that are bred to a stallion. This is why I think that the term becomes a misnomer in that the quality of the mare that the sire of sire is bred to has a large determination of the success of his sire sons (a la Kris S. and Arch). In turn, the success of these sire sons depends again on among other things the quality of the mares that they receive.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Byron Rogers — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 14:54:04 GMT

Hal,

If you want to hold onto a single stallion that was born 100 years ago to represent your ideal for the term "sire of sires" have at it.

Byron

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Hal Dane. — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 11:18:45 GMT

Byron.. are you telling me that, Bull Dog, Sir Gallahad, Ortello, Asterus, were not better stallions than their sire Teddy... ?

Teddy was -- to put it in plain english -- a sire of outstanding stallions, or as I would say, a Sire-of-Sires..

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

sceptre — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 01:47:03 GMT

Hi Byron,

Thanks for that very interesting and informative comment, and I agree with much of its message. I feel, though, that you have overstated your position. This topic is too complicated to be aired properly here, so allow me to simply respond to a few of your points.- While the relatively characteristic deficient Y chromosome may be the only "identifiable"/certain chromosome passed down from great generational distance, an individual sire and sireline does, on average, transmit far more of its genetic material (than just the Y chromosome) throughout the generations-albeit, on average, ever lesser with each succeeding generation. So, it is quite possible that each sireline can transmit some of its unique features (albeit ever lesser) from one generation to the next. As a somewhat related example, it's been my observation that the *Turn-To sireline tends to produce sires that outperform, sire-wise, what would have otherwise been their expectation. Yes, there is "dilution" in this observation with each succeeding generation...Now, as far as the %s you offered; I think more variables must be considered before they can be considered as mirroring true reality. A start would be to compare like race records from one "sire of sires" (descendants) to another while at the same time factoring in relative "opportunity"...Just as a *La Troienne in a 3rd or 4th may relatively exert a more + influence on a pedigree than another mediocre producer might, so too could a Tom Fool, Northern Dancer, Hyperion, etc. do the same vs say a less accomplished stallion at the same position. Yes, there's no guarantee that this would be the case, but, on average, it should tend to hold true-all else equal.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Byron Rogers — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 19:32:43 GMT

Hal/Ranagulzion,

Where to start....(apologies in advance for the length of reply).

Hal, I think that your comment is more about the historical classification of sirelines, not the term "sire of sires".

In regards to the historical classification of sirelines, the genetic studies on the Y chromosome are fairly clear in saying that 95% of sirelines share the same Y chromosome sequence.

The study (which you can google "Identification of Genetic Variation on the Horse Y Chromosome and the Tracing of Male Founder Lineages in Modern Breeds" to find), did however point to a mutation in the Y Chromosome that occurred somewhere between Eclipse-Waxy-Pot8os with Whalebone (1807) being the common ancestor source. This Y Chromosome haplotype now dominates 95% of the breed. The authors didn't find any newer Y Chromosome mutation which would point to a change in the breed. Thus, as far as a Y Chromosome is concerned (which presumably is the basis of a sireline as you define it), there is no Y Chromosome difference between Northern Dancer or Mr Prospector. They are one in the same sireline.

Now, Ranaguzolin, switching to the term "sire of sires".

I guess the first aspect is defining it. If you define it as a concept of the number of sons that retire to stud, then it is a popularity contest, not a concept of genetic transmission. If that is how you want to define a "sire of sires", just based on the number of sons that retire to stud, then you can have at it. For mine, I would define the concept of a sire of sires as 1) A successful stallion who 2) Left a number of successful sons whose stud career approached the success of their own sire.

So, let's take a look at Mr Prospector. He's a "sire of sires" right?

Mr Prospector has had 312 sons retire to stud that have sired offspring. Only 15 of these 312 have records that would indicate to me that they are at a minimum decent sire sons having sired at least 8 Gr1 winners in their career and having a SW/Fls% above 6%. That is not nearly as good as Mr Prospector himself, 14.8% SW/Fls and 47 G1 winners, but it is better than the average sire.

The sons of Mr Prospector that make that grade (6%/8Gr1) are Alpha Plus, Carson City, Fappiano, Fast Gold, Gone West, Gulch, Hussonet, Kingmambo, Lode, Machiavellian, Miswaki, Numerous, Seeking the Gold, Smart Strike, and Woodman. Some of them are leading sires in other countries also which could be argued against their inclusion, but let's for now leave them in. 15 of 312 leaves a strike rate of 4.8%.

What about Sadler's Wells? He's had 121 sons retire to stud to sire runners. Only 8 of these - Galileo, Montjeu, Fort Wood, Scenic, In the Wings, High Chaparral, El Prado, and Poliglote are above the 6%/8Gr1 mark. That is 6.5%

What about Danzig? He's had 184 sons retire to stud to sire runners. Only 5 (maybe six) could be considered superior sires - Danehill, National Assembly, Anabaa, Green Desert, and Belong to Me (with War Front being the other possible which we will include). That is 6 from 184 or 3.2%

What about Danehill? 202 sons to stud that have sired runners. Only Commands, Danehill Dancer, Dansili, Fastnet Rock, Flying Spur, Rock of Gibraltar, and Redoute's Choice could be considered truly elite - That is 7 of 202 or 3.4%.

What about Storm Cat? He's had 189 sons retired to have sired runners. Only 6 of these - Giant's Causeway, Bernstein, Pure Prize, Hennessy, Tale of the Cat, and Easing Along could be called significant (and you could argue against Pure Prize). 6 of 189 or 3.17%

So....the best stallions, and so called "sire of sires", are having a strike rate of superior sire sons in a range of 3-7% of all his sons that retire to stud. What that says to me is that there is next to no heritability of sire success, and the concept of a sire of sires is a misnomer. If there was a true genetic occurrence of a "sire of sires" effect, then you would be looking at these stallions above having a strike rate of successful sons of at least double if not more.

Stallions become successful because they can sire high class horses. We then see a lot of sons of successful stallions retire to stud on the belief by breeders that they can pass the ability to sire good racehorses themselves on. They can't afford to go to the sire itself so they go to the son, and with good mares to help them along. Unfortunately this is not how the genetics of performance in the thoroughbred works. Just because their sire was a good sire, doesn't necessarily make them a good sire. Equally, a mediocre sire has the chance, even if remote, to sire a very good racehorse and sire (e.g Tiznow).

The more we are looking into the genetics of sire success, it is apparent that you should treat every stallion as an individual chance of making it and the concept of "sire of sires" is just a romantic fallacy.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Obmar — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 02:05:06 GMT

"Upon the quality of the mares depends the success of the stud." "Conformation, soundness and pedigree are important, in that order," he said. "I put conformation on top because I like the look of a good horse. Not only his overall structures—I also want a nice, clear eye and an attractive head. Soundness comes next, because only by mating two sound animals can you expect a sound offspring. If one or the other is not sound you multiply your chances of producing an unsound foal. This brings us to pedigree. It is very, very important, yes, but if the horses with the best pedigrees in the world have poor conformation or are unsound, I want nothing to do with them. In other words, I want the best horses, and if they aren't the best I don't want them." end.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

sceptre — Wed, 14 Aug 2013 18:53:49 GMT

Hal Dane:

As the lyric goes "...wake up to reality..."

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Ranagulzion — Wed, 14 Aug 2013 17:36:20 GMT

Sceptre / Byron Rogers,

I'm not sure if both your views on sire of sires coincide but please explain what is going on with, for example, the lines of Hyperion, Northern Dancer, Sadler's Wells, Hail to Reason, Mr Prospector and A P Indy in terms of the bloodlines vs sirelines perspective. The aformentioned have been quite prolific in producing sons that have been successful sires.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

Hal Dane. — Wed, 14 Aug 2013 15:38:58 GMT

BYRON.. you do not believe in the term "Sire of Sires"..?

A little story, in 1930 there were no less than 50 male line branches of St Simon that lasted a least four generations.. there are still five TB male lines around, viz:- Rabelais, Florizel, Persimmon, Chaucer, and I know of a twelve year old mare (Galigastra) that descends from his son Matchbox, it's obvious that her sire Glad (1979) also has sons somewhere in East Europe.

Teddy (great sire-of-sires) still has five branches through Asterus, Sun Teddy, Athelstan, Sir Galahad and Bull Dog (see the Selazo line)

St Simon & Teddy have other male branches no longer TB, but having numerous descendants today with some fantastic Sires.

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

michael clifton — Wed, 14 Aug 2013 01:45:55 GMT

it's possible mineshaft can have the kind of impact discussed here

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

michael clifton — Tue, 13 Aug 2013 23:15:25 GMT

mineshaft might be the horse that can have that kind of impact

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

sceptre — Tue, 13 Aug 2013 20:43:05 GMT

Long range sire lines carry on by accident. I'd submit that the overwhelming dominance today of the Phalaris line has little to do with what Phalaris possessed genotypically. So yes, our ability to predict long-term sire success is hopeless. On the other hand, it is often quite possible to accurately predict stallion success...Also, we should be clearer on the term "lines", i.e. sirelines vs bloodlines. For example, in the case of Man 'O War, his bloodline was carried on more importantly by War Admiral than by War Relic. And, had Blue Peter not died before entering stud, who knows what would have been said of the War Admiral sireline. Lastly, consider the great stallion, Black Toney. Not much left of his sireline, but his genetic prowess-his bloodline- pervades the breed. And what if Sky Larking had lived?

re: Leading Commercial Sires: Who Will Carry On the Lines?

mike g rutherford — Tue, 13 Aug 2013 14:36:47 GMT

I did not see Malibu Moon on your list. Two sires with 1st 3 year olds Midnight Lute & Curlin look like they are headed upward. Curlin started with the very top mares. Midnight Lute will start in 2014 getting the top mares as his foals can run & have lots of appeal as yearling. The Midnight lutes really sold well in New York, deduct the cost of the stallion fee from the sale price & you will get a real economic story. Keeneland because of the large numbers will give a broader view. As the number in our foal crop keeps coming down the economics on yearling will improve.