TrueNicks Reports for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

re: TrueNicks Reports for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Byron Rogers — Wed, 09 Oct 2013 18:32:24 GMT

Tony,

Thanks for taking time to comment.

Most heritability studies which explain the differences in horses have the "trainer effect", which is in fact a combination of trainer/jockey/vet at somewhere between 20-25% of the variance in a horse population. The other 75-80% are explained by the pedigree and other environmental factors (how the horse is raised, etc). Random effects as you have described are low in terms of describing overall heritability of performance as a trait.

In regards to it being more "guesswork than science" because it is a closed gene pool, the opposite is actually true. Because it is a closed gene pool, and one that is selected on for performance (although that may vary from country to country depending on what races are important), some traits are highly heritable and thus less about guesswork and more about science. As an example, optimal race distance has a high heritability that depending on the metric used has been measured from 68% to 92%, that is between 68 to 92% of the variability of optimal race distance can be explained by the immediate ancestors of an unproven horse. This is why mating a sprinter to a sprinter will get you a sprinter.

Obviously class is a lot more complex than distance, but a similar concept applies. TrueNicks is also never intended to be used in isolation in selection. It is one tool that is proven to be important, but must be weighted with other considerations including conformation and other aspects that influence outcomes.

Thanks again for taking time to post.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Tony. Antoniades — Wed, 09 Oct 2013 18:16:53 GMT

On face value, this product is more likely to iD unsuitable matings than find true answers....this is further compounded by the laws of random ten matings using the same dam and sire will produce ten different results ,when you add the different trainers ,upbringing,environment ,race competitors ...the odds just get longer.....my personal view is I rely on the physical attributes of sire and dam ,race results and conditions....use pedigree stuff to ID what not to do only.....trainers skills are also a major influence.....with the entire gene pool going back to a handful of ancestors .its more guesswork than trus science,with random the biggest influence....Tony

re: TrueNicks Reports for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

John T — Mon, 07 Oct 2013 02:31:30 GMT

Alas the main hope for Monsun, Novelist was scratched out of this race but Treve was a worthy winner and she give a big boost to the Epsom Derby winner Motivator.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

John T — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 03:53:49 GMT

It has been a banner year for Monsun and I will be cheering for him to be the sire of the Ascot Gold Cup and Arc winner in the same year.