First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Jason — Wed, 12 Feb 2014 04:37:01 GMT

Here's my two bits on some of the points raised in this thread.

-the convention of catalogues being more about the dams family probably simply came about because the studs equivalent info is contained in the stud book so go look it up if you haven't familiarized yourself already. Also we know things like mitochondrial DNA are passed only from the female side and heart size is an x linked trait. Obviously the maternal family line is important (and regarding grandparents well grandmothers ONLY passed that mDNA). It would be conceited to think we know in entirety how important the maternal influence is....not to mention the physical environment of the mare.

- in regards to ken Ramsey and proving out studs. I believe mr Ramsey would be the first to point out their farm and methods of raising foals as being as important as anything else in kittens joys success. I've personally seen excellent stallion prospects with zero chance of "making it" just due to the environment their foals grow up in. To chalk up everything to genetics is surely over simplifying things.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

dave york — Sat, 07 Dec 2013 12:16:56 GMT

Alan

Thanks for your response. Repeating ND/HTR and repeating ND/TT is working for Kitten's Joy at an amazing rate. It will be interesting to see if another stallion owner will have the confidence in his stallion and support that stallion in the same manner as Ramsey???

Dave York

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Alan Porter — Thu, 14 Nov 2013 01:36:43 GMT

Hi Dave,

Firstly, I think over and above all else, Kitten's Joy is a very good sire and in an area where in general U.S. horses are not as strong (middle-distances on the turf).

The Ramseys did do well to give him every opportunity, but like most breeders they have had varying degrees of success with other stallions that they have supported. I'd take the view that it is virtually impossible to "make" a stallion if he doesn't have the equipment, but what the Ramseys did was to present Kitten's Joy with the opportunity to make it.

I do agree that a specific effort to bring back his broodmare sire line, Roberto/Hail to Reason, was made, and this seems to work well. Kitten's Joy himself is a Northern Dancer/Hail to Reason horse, and he's by a Northern Dancer/Turn-to (sire of Hail to Reason) cross, so perhaps it's not surprising that repeating these strains has worked well.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Dave York — Sun, 10 Nov 2013 21:46:24 GMT

To all experts,

I have precious little to support the following but I submit for your analysis. Ken Ramsey appears to be selecting mares that have Hail to Reason somewhere in their pedigree and most often a Northern Dancer as well.

Often the ND is Nijinsky. The experts can recite all of the absolutes in genetics and how that works but Ken Ramsey success is unmatched. No breeder that ever lived can match his success that he has enjoyed with one stallion (KITTEN'S JOY)! How can you explain or explain away the success of Ken Ramsey? I do not know him but a basic study of his 40 stakes winners reveals that HTR top and bottom is working. Your thoughts?

Happy birthday to all MARINES.

Semper Fi

Dave York

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

sceptre — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 17:17:46 GMT

Byron,

I can understand why you believe that the names represented beyond the 3rd generation exert little causative relationship to performance; and this may well be often true. But, I am fairly certain that there are instances wherein the genes of distant relatives contribute mightily. I can offer two examples from yesterday's results. I submit that New Year's Day owes much of his eliteness (what separates him from the average Street Cry) to Tiy (or, perhaps, more distantly yet); and the same can be said for Pontchatrain and her 3rd dam, Past Forgetting. I realize how easily this can be disputed-starting with the quality of their respective sires, Street Cry and War Front-, but I'm fairly sure of my position, nonetheless. I could give a long explanation why I feel I'm correct, but instead ask you to analyze carefully the data of these two families. It may well alter your opinion, and open you to make even better use of the resources available to you and Alan.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

sceptre — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 15:33:15 GMT

Hi Byron,

I read the link you supplied. Nothing new offered there-the variations in grandparental, etc. inheritance is well understood-and for that matter, has been mentioned often on these very blogs. It certainly doesn't add credence to your ")1 (st) point. If anything it speaks to the possibility of a grandparent's, or more distant relative's greater than superficially perceived genetic contribution to a descendant...I do agree, however, that the catalogue page may cause some to inflate the (genetic) worth of the tail-female, but it is fashioned so to inform about the least "common knowledge" portion of a pedigree.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Byron Rogers — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 14:02:04 GMT

Sceptre,

Guilty as charged (brevity that is).

I agree with most of your summary here. Interestingly there was a post on slate.com which is worth reading and starts to explain

1) how beyond the 3rd generation you are really just looking at names on a page that have very little meaning to performance

and

2) How much the catalog page creates bias with the broodmare sire, who may be a key player in the outcome of a foal given just a blip on the page

www.slate.com/.../analyze_your_child_s_dna_which_grandparents_are_most_genetically_related.html

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Alan Porter — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 18:14:22 GMT

A lot also depends on how one interprets the term "sire of sires" - since there is no real fixed definition, in extremis it could mean anything from a stallion had a lot of sons go to stud, to the qualification meaning represented by high proportion of his best runners also being top-class stallions.

If you go to the most stringent of those descriptions, then very few stallions qualify. I would tend to have a looser definition than Byron, and take a stallion who had numerous sons that sired good runners.

What does seem to happen is that some stallions are very bad sires of sires, a good example being Bull Lea.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Roberts — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 17:56:56 GMT

Of the first years I like Union Rags, not many recent Belmont winners have that good of 2yo form, precocious and could cover a distance. Plus he has a strong female line which I think is important for a sire.

While some might not believe in "sire of sires" their are some stallions that are better know for there sons or for their daughters either on the race track or in the breeding shed. Yes you have some like Gone West, Storm Cat or AP Indy who can produce anything but their are a number of stallions know for one or the other.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

sceptre — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 21:11:26 GMT

Hi Byron,

I hesitate to reopen this sire of sires discussion (see posts in earlier TrueNicks blogs), but, perhaps, a few more comments are in order:

As said before, I essentially agree with much of your position, e.g. most (you'd say "all") are falsely deemed sire of sires. I also think that one would be hard pressed to find a genetic rationale to explain how two equally elite (for example) sires with equal opportunity, etc. could have disparate records as sires of sires-here is where I feel the discussion should focus. But, your most recent "genetic" explanation to refute the notion of sires of sires-conveyed in your last post."...At a genetic level..." is filled with holes-perhaps, caused by nothing more than your desire for brevity. Here's some comments about but two of the holes: 1. "beneficial variations", even when clustered, need not (and almost always aren't) transmitted intact. 2. Even should all beneficial variants be transmitted intact, there is the remainder of the transmitted genome to be considered. For example, two sons (siring sons of a ? sire of sires) would usually have different dams whose transmitted genome might include say negative attributes, etc. And/or the remainder of the transmitted genome from his sire (or dam) will differ from one conception to another-these are but two examples why even a "potent" sire of sires (who possesses an exceptional cluster of very + variants) cannot continuously sire good sires (not to mention good racehorses). But, I'm sure you already knew this.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Byron Rogers — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 18:07:16 GMT

Hal,

I don't believe that the term "sire of sires", as in a single stallion that sires a greater percentage of sons that prove to be as good as him exists. Northern Dancer is the usual suspect as a "sire of sires" and only a couple could be deemed as good as him as a sire, and no more than other stallions.

At a genetic level it would also imply that a stallion had a beneficial variation in his genome that was passed on to his sons. If that did exist, then every son would get it and every one of them would be successful. That doesn't happen.

This is of course different to the term 'sirelines' which can be used to classify.

Do you have empirical evidence to suggest the term exists?

You will find that Alan and I don't agree on a lot of things. He believes in ancestors deeper in the pedigree being associated (not causative) with elite performers. I think that once you get further back than 3 generations they are just names on a page that have little relevance to what is going on. I think our disagreements and discussions about association and causation in determining elite performance is why we keep coming up with better ways of analyzing pedigrees.

re: First-Crop Covering Sires of November Broodmare Sales

Hal Dane. — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 12:57:03 GMT

Re:- Aikenite.. there are stallions from four other live branches of Bold Ruler, apart from Boldnesian & Raja Baba.

Cobra King in Canada.. Cacique Sepe in Uruguay.. Mighty Forum in California.. Danzig Prince Race in Mexico.

P.S.. It is interesting that you use the term Sire-Of-Sires, something your friend Byron says "does not exist"