TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

Julie L. — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 20:58:14 GMT

I have three choices from this list

First - #22 Aragorn/Stunning Image (Ire)

Second - #229 Harlan's Holiday/Smiling Eyes

Third - #236 Candy Ride/Sun Luck

I believe that Aragorn is going to be a topnotch sire and believe that Harlan's Holiday is a stallion often overlooked and as for Candy Ride he has proven himself well with his first crop and I just love the older breeding on this mare Sun Luck.

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

steve s — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:46:37 GMT

Since Sky Mesa horses have taken a hit recently-there could be GREAT bargains on his yearlings

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

Bloom — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:20:44 GMT

This is a cool tool. Does the tool predict sale price and/or projected lifetime earnings? If so, it would provide the real bottom line on whether to buy or not. A good way to determine if the tool is good for you is to make some picks and compare the tools results to your results. I am a novice. So, I bet the tool will help. Here are my thoughts on the TrueNicks picks for Fasig-Tipton July 2009 Sale.

Good call on Hip 71, 285 and 449. These two will prove their ratings by becoming graded stakes winners.

1.Hip No. 285: . ch f Speightstown--Ascot Yael).

2.Hip No. 449: . b f (Lemon Drop Kid--Moonshine Run).

3. Hip No. 71: . dkb/b c (Sharp Humor--Beauty Bug).

While they are not B+ or better rated, I believe all the horses below will earn 5 times or greater thier sale price. It unclear if these lessor TrueNick ratings indicate their earnings would not be this great. And, I feel that 3 of the 10 will be Stakes winners. I take it TrueNicks formula would disagree.

1.Hip No. 1: . dkb/b c (Forest Danger--Saint Believe It

2.Hip No. 10: . ch c (Afleet Alex--Shirley Booth).

3. Hip No. 29: . b c (Henny Hughes--Tacticmove).

4. Hip No. 42: . gr/ro c (Rockport Harbor--Unchained Princess).

5. Hip No. 70: . ch c (Eddington--Bates Choice).

6. Hip No. 178: . ch c (Henny Hughes--Mighty Lode).

7. Hip No. 305: . dkb/b c (Awesome Again--Calico Flower).

8. Hip No. 445: . ch c (Songandaprayer--Mizzen Lass).

9. Hip No. 472: . dkb/b c (Speightstown--Personal Glory).

10.Hip No. 490: . ch f (Speightstown--Red Piano

Editor's note: Great ideas, Bloom. "Earnings predictor" sounds interesting! TrueNicks actually looks only at likelihood for stakes success. Earnings depends a whole lot on where the horse is raced and how long his career, but the goal of most breeders/owners/trainers is to reach stakes level and is one unifying goal of the sport!

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

Ryan Zabrowski — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:21:12 GMT

Carrie - I completely agree with Byron when he stated above "We have always maintained that TrueNicks is to be used as a guide, not an absolute and to be honest any program/system that says otherwise is leading you astray." Both Zenyatta (Street Cry) and Stardom Bound (Tapit) were both out of those sire's first crop so it is impossible to have a statistically significant Nick. I agree with you about needing a balanced approached with the mare, but it is hard for me to call Seattle Slew a "abysmal failure" as he is the sire of sires of:

A.P. Indy, Capote, Slew O'Gold, Slew City Slew, Septieme Ciel, Slewpy, Air de France, etc. He may be relying on AP Indy to keep his sire line going but that does not mean he was not a sire of sires.

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

AnneM — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 03:30:34 GMT

I noticed that many of the top Stakes winners today ( for example Sea the Stars and Presious Passion) have TrueNicks ratings of C or D. I would be worried that people might miss a wonderful horse if they were to use this rating as a key factor 1) when deciding who to breed their mares to, or 2) in this case, which yearling to purchase as a racing prospect.

Editor's note: AnneM, thanks for your comments. The C rating for Sea The Stars (IRE) is based on the Cape Cross (IRE)/Mr. Prospector cross. Note that the TrueNicks report also shows the five best horses on the cross to help breeders/buyers in their evaluation -- for this example, we show that the five best horses also include a group II winner, a group III winner, and two listed stakes winners. However, TrueNicks calculations are based on how well the AVERAGE result of a cross fares... in the case of Cape Cross/Mr. Prospector, the overall cross has not performed significantly better than the average for the breed. Sea The Stars is the only group/grade I winner after many attempts and he is out of a wonderful producer and racemare so the quality of the ancestors may be overcoming a lack of genetic affinity. ... As for your other example, Presious Passion rates an A on TrueNicks.

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

Carrie — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 22:32:41 GMT

I remember the day when Zenyatta won, D nick with Werk. Stardom Bound C nick with Werk. Forever Together was a F nick with Werk. Now imagine, all three are now A nicks with both Werk and True Nicks. To me, no nicking system can ever be true unless it takes account the broodmare's family. Without Weekend Surprise, Slew is an abysmal failure sire of sires.

Editor's note: Zenyatta and Forever Together were A rated, with TrueNicks at least, prior to their first stakes success.

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

shesfast — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:15:39 GMT

i had a little fun just looking through the names and imagining what i would name them hehe.

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

anonymous — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:33:00 GMT

hip# 223 in my opinion will go for a lot. a filly by medaglia d'oro out of sheenas gold, a mare with alot of old, classic, european breeding thats still upclose in the pedigree, the dam's got Precipitation, and Umidwar, just to name a few hall of famers from britain in her pedigree. If i was going to that sale this year, she'd definitely be one that i'd be looking at.

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

brogers — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:57:25 GMT

Good questions Chris...I wonder if Mine That Bird would have made more at the Fasig Tipton October Sale if his A+ TrueNicks rating was published also.

Dunkirk is an interesting horse. Like another Unbridled's Song colt in First Defence (bred on the same cross) it is probably a case where the quality of the parents used overcomes an apparent lack of genetic affinity.

We have always maintained that TrueNicks is to be used as a guide, not an absolute and to be honest any program/system that says otherwise is leading you astray. It is an accurate program (we are yet to find a program that has undergone or will undergo the statistical scrutiny that TrueNicks was subject to in its development) but it does require some "intelligent interpretation". Alan and I have each recommended matings where the Truenicks score is as low as a C but there were other parts of the pedigree that we liked, the physical aspects of the mating suited (very important), and these matings have resulted in stakes winners. There is no absolutes in this game but intelligently using TrueNicks will help you enormously.

Byron

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

steve s — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:46:28 GMT

BUY HIP 180 and pray it can run on dirt and dont geld him

re: TrueNicks Auction Guide: Fasig-Tipton July Sale

Chris — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:32:50 GMT

I wonder if Dunkirk would still have brought $3.5 Million...if he was advertised by True Nicks as a "D" rating???