Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

re: Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

Joltman — Fri, 21 Mar 2014 02:38:27 GMT

Great observations guys. The 'sub-breed' note is an interesting idea. Somehow, though if a horse managed to win the Triple Crown and be able to run forever (and was allowed to), stood stud to quality distance mares, maybe that bias toward speed might go the other way, at least for some top breeders, and the tail of the horse would follow the head eventually.

re: Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

sceptre — Thu, 20 Mar 2014 02:53:20 GMT

Hi Alan,

Appreciated your learned comments which were most informative. I did previously post a follow-up to Byron's also superb last comments-it seemed to "submit" but, apparently wasn't received. I won't now try to repeat what was said-I did somewhat debate and discuss his reasoning re-the inbreeding/linebreeding, but I would now like to respond to some of your message-

I'll open with a "narrow" statement/question that speaks a bit to what I see as the main thrust of your message- One could infer from your comments that a *Nasrullah (of the 50s-60's) would have a difficult time of it today succeeding at stud in the US-because the US breed has so significantly improved, dirt-wise, at least relative to the majority of distances run. And that this comes in part as result of our financial abilities in the 60s-80s to "select" the best available breeding stock. It has also been said by you (and I had agreed) that the "breed" and , let's say, the US breed, has become more homogeneous than ever before-that there is much more parity. So, allow me to toss in the example of racing in Saudi Arabia-on all dirt tracks. Granted, there is, for one, the variable of climate, and how this may play on track surface and rearing. And, yes, the overall quality of thoroughbred in Saudi is quite inferior to that found here. But, it might interest you to know that turf-bred types and dirt-bred types compete on near equal footing (no pun intended)...And, somewhat separately, as I think you'll agree, our previous bloodstock "selection" advantage has waned in recent years. So, I find it somewhat difficult to swallow that our US "sub-breed" of dirt horse is all that superior-dirt-wise to what could be siphoned off elsewhere. Byron certainly did more than hint at what might be the main variable, and that variable is speed, a prerequisite for US racing success. He also mentioned certain conducive conformational attributes. I do realize that Europe, Australia, New Zealand, etc. selectively breed for turf-and that does count for something-, but, let's face it, this isn't a process a natural selection, rather it's implemented essentially by non-scientific horsemen. My strong guess is that the Blushing Grooms, etc. of today are very much out there, outside the US, and not too different than before.

re: Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

Alan Porter — Wed, 19 Mar 2014 18:08:18 GMT

On the subject of imported stallions, I wrote a piece for Market-Watch which pretty much covered the broad sweep of the history of import/export of stallions and their impact, particularly the interchange between the U.S. and Europe.

As per Byron's notes above, I came to the conclusion that until relatively recently, a top-class stallion would generally be a top-class stallion whether in Europe or the U.S. I think that there was then a move to a more specialized dirt horse, that had a physiology and mechanics that particularly suited that situation.

It's actually a microcosm of how the breed developed: the thoroughbred was developed into the fastest horse you could breed from an amalgam of different horses. In the same way, the modern U.S. dirt horse is pretty much a "sub-breed" and as a consequence of U.S. buying power from, say, the late 60s to the 80s, from an amalgam of the best available thoroughbreds.

The imports that got significant opportunity were drawn for the very top of the heap, especially those that came from what would have been perceived as regions then less prestigious than Europe. So the horses that came from South America, Australia, and South America, such as Forli, the Australian horses that you mentioned, Noholme II, Tobin Bronze, Royal Gem; Hawaii and Wolf Power (broodmare sire of Wise Dan), were at the superstar level in their own countries.

An imported turf horse could still be a very effective "niche" stallion with the right support, in the mold of a Theatrical or on a more modest scale, English Channel, but I think it would be very hard for one to break into the commercial mainstream as a consistent sire of top-class dirt runners.

re: Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

Byron Rogers — Tue, 18 Mar 2014 14:14:47 GMT

Indeed, a harder question to answer...

Leaving aside the precarious nature of prediction of stallion success (the more I learn the less likely I am willing to give opinion on unproven sires), I am not sure that success prior to the 1970's in terms of stallions has much if any relevance to success in the US today. That is, with the odd exception I don't think that those stallions that were successful in the past and the reasons for their success apply today.

The main reason for this is that I think that there has been a fundamental genetic shift in the type of horse that has been selected for, and in turn the parameters of success. Since the 1970's, The Sale Ring, Handicappers (speed figures reliant on positive splits while European racing built on negative ones) and Quarter Horse trainers have each exerted considerable influence on the type of horse that is being selected for and bred in North America.

The parameters for success as a stallion are completely different. This is not a unique situation as you would know. We used to have 4 mile heats in Thoroughbred racing but we don't do that anymore which is another reason why those that believe in deep linebreeding/inbreeding combinations are misguided. If it did work, you'd be breeding a horse that doesn't fit the current racing environment.

re: Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

sceptre — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 21:57:51 GMT

Hi Byron,

Very nice of you to take the time and offer me those valuable insights. Certainly was helpful, and cleared up a lot...I feel a bit greedy to ask, but there's still one question remaining, and likely not easily answered. I had observed that the down under imported (to US) stallions sired rather well in the US-on dirt. Names such as Noholme II, Royal Gem, and Tobin Bronze come to mind. Can you find any reason to explain why their turf horses/turf sires seem to sire so well for the US dirt?

re: Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

Byron Rogers — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 16:19:21 GMT

Sceptre

A few questions to answer there!

1) Trainers in Australia are more prone to gelding horses and making them into racehorses than persevering with a colt that is unruly and trying to make him a stallion. This is probably a by product of both the type of racing that they demand (early 2YO, sprinter types)and the competition level in order to become a stallion in that country with shuttle sires from not only Europe, but also North America and Japan visiting each year. Unsurprisingly the number of stallions in Australia has in a decade gone from 3500 to close to 700. One could certainly argue that their stallion population is among the best in the world given the stallions that shuttle there as well as the local competition.

2) I think that shuttling to the Northern Hemisphere will come with time/success. Horses like Flying Spur, Danzero, Commands, Octagonal, Encosta de Lago and Choisir have all shuttled to Europe with varying success. Fastnet Rock shuttles to Coolmore in Ireland while Redoute's Choice goes to France so their top two sires are in fact reverse shuttling. Obviously the addition of Lonhro and Denman to Darley America's roster will be an interesting aspect to watch.

3) I think that the selection towards speed that both Australia and North America have undergone is at play. You will notice that the most successful North American sires to make it in Australia are those that were naturally precocious and had real speed like say More Than Ready and Dehere, while the taller, longer leggier type that wanted a mile or more to be at their best, say Unbridled's Song, Timber Country, Brocco, etc failed (they may have also failed for other reasons). It is the same with the mares that go there. The truly fast mares seem to make good mares in Australia as they fit the stallion population, like say the dam of Foxwedge.

Within the caveat that stallion prediction (as opposed to reflection) is a difficult pasttime, Pins is a great type and has a solid pedigree. I think that his sire Snippets would have made it in America as could he.

re: Easter Gifts a Mixed Bag of Stallions for Yearling Buyers

sceptre — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 19:50:47 GMT

Glad you chose this topic, because I've been hoping to get your team's take on a few subjects related to the industry in Australia/New Zealand. I've been reviewing their stallion populations and records, and seem to notice that a disproportionate (relative to US) number of male runners are geldings. Is this at all related to the fact that they have a large number of shuttle stallions, or are the shuttle stallions more a consequence of this?..One could argue that their overall stallion population is the best in the world. Several of their local (home grown) stallions are really top notch, so why don't they shuttle to the N. Hemisphere?...Lastly, while very few stallions from the region have relocated to the US, I've noticed that those that did often had US offspring that performed well on dirt. If true, have you a theory regarding this?-Do you think that Pins could have made it in the US?