Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Fri, 09 May 2014 23:40:06 GMT

Sceptre,

I don't think I really disagree much with what you said.

I was just trying to point out that the fact that Night of Thunder's fourth dam was a high-class performer is pretty much irrelevant at this point. After all, I don't think anyone would make a big deal about Mr. Prospector being in the fourth generation of the male line, since he appears in that position in literally thousands of horses, of all shades of ability.

The direct female line does transmit the mtDNA, but there is no reason to believe that Forest Flower (and her descendents) were markedly different in that respect from thousands upon thousands of other members of what would commonly be know as Bruce Lowe family #2 (assuming that the stud book record is correct).

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

John T — Fri, 09 May 2014 03:13:45 GMT

Sometimes it happens that the direct female line has not

produced a good horse even to the fifth dam and then comes

along a classic winner like Night Of Thunder.If we take a closer look at that famous racehorse from many years ago,Pretty Polly she was not a good mother as a broodmare

and was very nervous with the result her offspring were inclined to be delicate when young.Her first two years at

the stud she was barren and in her third year she slipped

twins to the Derby winner Spearmint.It was a major disappointment that she bred only four winners herself but

her stud reputation has been ensured by the many glittering

successes won by later descendants.Those included Donatello

who was unbeaten in Italy and went on to sire the Gold Cup

winner Alycidon and the Epsom Derby winner Crepello,a top

class 2 year old,The Cobbler who went on to become a very successful sire in New Zealand and many others of distinction.So although we do not get the result we would

like to see from a broodmare like Pretty Polly and other

broodmares even back to the fifth dam the end result can be

very surprising indeed.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Thu, 08 May 2014 23:48:39 GMT

Alan,

This is probably too involved to debate on this blog, but your last post gave me the sense (I could be mistaken) that we may disagree on some basics-re the genetic variability of the broodmare population, and its consequence. So, let me simply ask: Did you disagree with my assertions re-this issue?

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:10:36 GMT

Ann,

I'd say that there is a disconnect between the presentation of that data in a catalog (the logic behind which I would agree with you), and its likely genetic impact.

Since in genetic terms we are dealing with less than two handfuls of distinct female families, where (with potentially a few more modern mutations aside) the mtDNA is virtually unchanged for 30+ generations.

So, what the rise or decline of a female line generally really reflects is 1) the class of sire to which the mares from the family has been recently mated; the genetic affinity between the sires to which the family has been bred; the affinity of the nuclear DNA in the sires to the which the family has been bred; the potential inheritance of epistatic variants that hinder or facilitate the transmission of positive racing variants.

So if we take Night of Thunder, whose direct female line had not produced a good horse since the fifth dam, who produced Night of Thunder's own fourth dam, Champion Forest Flower, we might conclude: since Forest Flower was bred top-class runners (not all of whom succeeded as stallions), she was 1) just terribly unlucky (which given the number of her foals is probably not so); 2) was bred stallions that were a poor match for her nuclear/mtDNA; 3) or possessed epistatic variants that prevented her passing on positive variants for athleticism (or any combination of the three).

I'd suggest that the return to form of the family is primarily down to mating a high-quality sire (Dubawi) to a mare by a high-quality sire (Galileo) in a mating that was likely to be highly genetically compatible (the dam of Night of Thunder is by a son of Sadler's Wells out of a mare by a son of Green Desert, two highly positive "Key Ancestors" for Dubawi).

Chances are the 75% percent of the DNA inherited from Dubawi and Galileo (two of the top 5 or 6 sires in Europe) is way more important than anything to be found on the catalog page.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Thu, 08 May 2014 16:21:15 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Yes, the tail-female portion of the pedigree tends to be least familiar and deserves relatively more "space" on a catalogue, etc. page. As I said earlier, it also can be the greatest "game changing" component of the pedigree. But, let's not kid ourselves, the space afforded it does distort its true significance, and very likely falsely influences the perspective of MOST individuals in the horse industry. This practice has been so embedded in their psyches-likely including your own- that its overreaching importance has become nearly a given. Consider the case of a lesser known dam sire-he's given virtually no "space"-, and his potentially negative influence is, psychologically, often ignored due to the page's layout..This tradition has fundamentally influenced our ability to rationally evaluate a pedigree. It's become so ingrained that we resist the thought of questioning it The true degree of distortion is somewhat mitigated by the fact that there is far greater variation in the broodmare-line than the male.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Thu, 08 May 2014 03:01:25 GMT

Obmar,

I wouldn't say that "nothing matters after the fourth generation" although statistically, any one ancestor the next generation after that is unlikely to have contributed much more than 6% of the total make up of the subject horse, so attributing ability to an individual that far back is to move on to very shaky ground.

The comment, however, was in regard to taking the female family as an especially strong predictor of class.

If you take Night of Thunder as an example, then his immediate family was a very poor guide to his potential, as none of the first four dams had previously appeared in the female line of a single stakes winner (although we'll give that the first two dams have only four foals between them).

Since all the other descendents of Forest Flower have shown nothing near her ability, I would be very loath to give a lot of the credit for Night of Thunder's ability to her, especially given that Night of Thunder is by Dubawi out of a Galileo mare, which is very nearly as good as it gets in terms of quality in Europe.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 08 May 2014 01:26:14 GMT

I didn't say it was dominant, only that it needs to be considered. And you are saying it counts not at all with this analysis.

And you ignored the part about considering horses' Derby prospects without noting who had bombed on dirt, run last of 13(?) in its final prep, etc.

Catalogue pages are as they are because females have fewer offspring in a lifetime than males can and most often do have in a single season. We are all familiar with the top sires and damsires, because they are on the leading sires list and in the news frequently; we don't need to have that information repeated ad infinitum. The racing and producing histories of the dam and the second dam will not be well known unless they were champions or blue hens, so more of the page is spent on this unfamiliar information.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Wed, 07 May 2014 21:34:35 GMT

Joltman:

I doubt there's anyone who reveres Numbered Account more than I, but a lot good that inbreeding did C. Chrome's dam as a racehorse. She was a cheap claimer. That said, it is possible that her "brand" of Numbered Account(s) served as a + for C. Chrome, but, all else equal, it would tend to be more likely had she been a better runner. As an aside, I recall that the Not For Love-Polish Numbers cross wasn't all that successful...No doubt that C. Chrome's genome is quality laden enough to cause his quite + phenotype. The elements most responsible are a mystery, but we might learn more with later produce by his dam.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Obmar — Mon, 05 May 2014 17:13:45 GMT

Alan, are you saying nothing matters after the 4th generation.

Forest Flower is the 4th dam.

Forest Flower, Urban Sea, Con Game, Fairy bridge, Take them out of the pedigree and see what you have.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Joltman — Mon, 05 May 2014 02:25:00 GMT

Interesting that the Ky Derby's winner's dam was inbred to Numbered Account - for those who love the females in the pedigree, but not tail female.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Sat, 03 May 2014 21:44:48 GMT

Funny re female lines: today's English 2,000 Guineas winner Night of Thunder doesn't have a previous stakes winner under the first four dams.

He is, however, by Dubawi, out of a mare by Galileo, out of a mare by Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Desert Prince, out of a mare by Epsom Derby winner Reference Point.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Sat, 03 May 2014 15:05:46 GMT

Byron,

Yes, the tail-female, an ever more proportionally smaller portion of a pedigree as it retreats in time, is over emphasized on the catalogue page, which causes many to inflate its significance. But, tail-female is generally the most genetically variable (quality-wise) component in a pedigree-it is also very often its weakest part. If you accept that the very vast majority of equine thoroughbred genes are identical, and grouped identically, one horse to another, and also accept that the non-tail-female component (the vast lion's share) of the pedigree is more similar, quality-wise-and thus more similar genotypically-, then you should conclude that this tail-female portion has relatively more effect as a "game-changer" than any INDIVIDUAL component (of same number of genes) of pedigree's remainder. This said, I doubt its influence approaches the space afforded it on the catalogue page.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Zuzuzpetals — Sat, 03 May 2014 03:15:06 GMT

I like your picks Ian. I have been waiting to read your comments. Good luck to all and a safe ride to all the beautiful horses!

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Ian Tapp — Fri, 02 May 2014 20:58:34 GMT

OK, here it goes.

My throw-outs: Vicar's in Trouble, Harry's Holiday, Tapiture, Uncle Sigh, Vinceremos, We Miss Artie, Candy Boy, Commanding Curve, Dance With Fate, Wildcat Red

Suspect at the distance: Ride On Curlin, Intense Holiday, Chitu, California Chrome

Should handle distance fine: Wicked Strong, Danza

Top 3 that will love the distance: General a Rod, Samraat, Medal Count

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Byron Rogers — Fri, 02 May 2014 19:51:26 GMT

Ann,

Female family as in a measure of racing class? Mitochondrial DNA aside, recombination of genes will mean that anything past the third generation is just a name on the page. If Mitochondrial DNA really mattered also we'd have selected for it by now Ii,e all horses would be from the same mtDNA family).

Breeders love to think that the tail female family matters, but it is complete fantasy that is propagated by the very way we set up a catalogue page.

If the dam is unraced, they look at the second dam and rationalize that a 'generation skip' might occur, completely ignoring the fact that the broodmare sire has as much influence as the second dam on the outcome.

Who is your pick?

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 02 May 2014 18:07:47 GMT

And the female family counts not at all. Previous inability to handle dirt, trailing home last in your final prep, none of that counts. Yeah, right.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Thu, 01 May 2014 22:40:30 GMT

Throwing them (Derby entrants) out due to pedigree limitations seems far more hazardous than once was. That's why I think Byron's opening sentences apply ever more. Problem for me is that I find it difficult to have much certainty re-who, if any, has real class. I think there's a reasonably good chance that at least three who didn't make the field are classier than any of the entrants. Of those that did, Candy Boy and Medal Count seem to have the best chance for quality careers. Vinceremos is the wild card for me, and wouldn't it be ironic if this "lesser" credentialed Pioneerof The Nile does it while the two more illustrious ones (by that sire), sit on the sidelines. Such a scenario should vault Pioneerof The Nile to near-elite sire status.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Dan Lambskin — Thu, 01 May 2014 22:22:13 GMT

Looking forward to Ian's Top 3 and any throwouts