A Juvenile Weekend

re: A Juvenile Weekend

Alan Porter — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:11:48 GMT

Hi Ryan,

We are continually looking at developing other products. There is no doubt that there are some family/family combinations that work well.

The main difficulties would be in reducing it to something that is quantifiable and objectively measurable (and then is proven to have a positive correlation with success at a specific level), and also to program something that can be analyzed without too much processing.

We'd certainly be interested in any ideas on the subject though. Anything that helps breeders make more informed decisions that are based on quantifiable and objective measures are worth considering.

re: A Juvenile Weekend

Ryan — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:37:47 GMT

Hello from Greek Islands...The only book I brought with me is John Sparkman's book Foundation Mares. It is an excellent book and a must read for anyone interested in breeding. Alan - have you ever considered creating True nicks based on the dominate female lines? When reading through the 450+ pages it is obvious to readers that some families cross extremely well with certain families. I would be game to help tackle a project of this nature.

re: A Juvenile Weekend

Alan Porter — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:04:28 GMT

Nick,

The reason that A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector (the direct cross of A.P. Indy himself over mares by Mr. Prospector) comes out as a B+ is that A.P. Indy has covered a lot of very good Mr. Prospector mares.

He has 89 starters and 18 black-type stakes winners on the cross (20% stakes winners to starters). He's had 660 starters and 103 stakes winners out of mares by all other stallions (15.6%). So he's done about 1.29 times as well with Mr. Prospector mares as he has with all other mares. This is a significant improvement considering that he is a very good sire, but doesn't indicate an overwhelming preference.

The specific Mr. Prospector mares that have been bred to A.P. Indy have produced around 8.2% stakes winners by all other stallions, so he is doing 1.83 times as well as might be expect with them.

Combine the two figures, and A.P. Indy does 2.36 times as well with the Mr. Prospector mares that have been bred to him as one would expect if there was no preference.

The 2.36 comes out to a B+ (and at the high end of that scale). Since we recommend paying particular attention to ratings of B+ or above, and since the TrueNicks page shows that the cross has produced four grade one winners, the TrueNicks rating would provide a strong endorsement for breeding a Mr. Prospector mare to A.P. Indy (leaving aside the age factors that would now be a consideration).

re: A Juvenile Weekend

Nick — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:22:33 GMT

Have I mentioned lately that True Nicks are pointless? How is the A.P. Indy/ Mr. Prospector cross a B+? Justify yourselves please.