Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Sandcreek — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 11:09:20 GMT

Alan:

As a newcomer to the Thoroughbred community, having recently purchased my first (Turkola by Turkoman out of Pocket Liner), I made it my goal to DIRTFT (DO IT RIGHT THE FIRST TIME), so I began with Nicking stats for every stallion in the free True Nicks base, then did the same with Werks. I see that my mare nicks well with Supreme Cat (A+++)in the Werks program, but with True Nicks only a D.

What's up with that?

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

KH — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:40:16 GMT

So who are the top ten horses outrunning their Nicks? Any individuals that cut completely against the grain? I suppose these are the ones who against the odds won the gene lottery... Attempt to duplicate at your peril!

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Alan Porter — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 13:44:45 GMT

Hi Kathy,

Unbridled/Fappiano has been a very good cross for both Housebuster and his sire, Mt. Livermore. Mt. Livermore goes back to a mare bred on a similar cross to Rough'n Tumble, the sire of Dr. Fager, and broodmare sire of In Reality. Housebuster has a cross of Rough'n Tumble through his broodmare sire line.

If your mare is unproven, I might prefer a proven horse; I would look for the best value, which might be not be the least expensive representative of Unbridled; the best physical match for the mare; and on pedigree any additional Rough'n Tumble (besides the Dr. Fager that is in the horse as broodmare sire of Fappiano).

Good luck with you matings.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Kathy Hall — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:57:24 GMT

I also bred my DR. Blum Mare to Cashel Castle who id double Mr. Prospector bred and is rated a C+ but most Dr. Blum mares are stakes producers..so am hoping my 08 colt will make the grade as a 2 or 3 yr old.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Kathy Hall — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:46:42 GMT

I have a Housbuster mare that nicks A++ with Werblin. I have done nicks with all the other Unbridled songs in my area OCALA FL and they are all A++. So what else am I to look for except best stud fee available?

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Alan Porter — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:27:17 GMT

Hi Jesse,

That's an imaginative use of the program. In the case of Point Given, the Turkoman element is particularly worth considering. He's much more like Turkoman in size that he is like Thunder Gulch, and he breeds more like Turkoman, particularly in his strong affinity with Seattle Slew.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Alan Porter — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:25:34 GMT

Hi Michael,

The variant of 2.85 means that the cross has produced stakes winners at a rate of 2.85 the times that it might have been expected two relative to the number of tries and the quality of the material with which it has been attempted.

The breakouts for the grades are explain on the "About" link on the TrueNicks site - truenicks.com/.../about.aspx - but the A+ rating starts at above 4.0, the C rating is between 0.75 and 1.25.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Teresa E. — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:38:50 GMT

how about the other way around on the AP Indy/Storm Cat lines of breeding? How do the Seattle Slew mares do with Storm Cat sons? thanks

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Alan Porter — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:32:33 GMT

Chris,

I'd ask you to re-read what I wrote at the top of this thread: to Quote "Of course there are always situations where particular linebreeding or inbreeding patterns, or physical factors offer compelling reasons to select a mating with a lower rating, but in general, and from the standpoint of the sire/broodmare sire nick, we pay particular attention to matings or horses rated B+ or above"

Other than when I am actually planning matings for them, I have no intention of "steering breeders" in any particular direction, other than that of carefully considering all the factors that weigh into a mating.

The sire line/broodmare sire line cross - whether you measure by TrueNicks, or by some more subjective consideration - is one important factor. We find that at the point that a rating is returning a "B+" or better for a nick, the return of stakes winners to opportunity dramatically increases.

I've planned and recommended matings for horses whose pedigrees yield nicks across the full spectrum of ratings, including a Breeders' Cup winner who is a "D."

However, it still remains extremely useful to me to know how a sire/broodmare sire (or sireline/broodmare sire line cross) performers. I investigated that before planning a mating, long before TrueNicks or any other nicking system existed. However the TrueNicks Broodmare Analysis gives me an objective evaluation of that aspect of the pedigree, with information and data that no one individual could otherwise memorize and evaluate.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Jesse Englehart — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:38:29 GMT

Alan,

I recently bought a Point Given mare and am looking into breeding her to Quiet American. Point Given is a new Broodmare Sire and there are not enough matings for Truenicks to consider him a cross.

When the truenick report is run and the statistics are calculated it is based on Mr. Prospecter/Thunder Gulch cross and is a C. Now if I run a Quiet American/Turkoman (Point Given's Broodmare Sire) truenick it is an A++. If I expect Point Given to be a better broodmare sire than Thunder Gulch because of the Turkoman influence, should that factor in my decision?

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Michael Ventura — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 07:14:38 GMT

So basically you found a TrueNick Rating of A has an Impace Value of 2.85 on the chances of being a SW, whereas a TrueNick Rating of B has an Impact Value of 2.35?

What's the Impact Value for a score of A+ or better?

What's the Impact Value for a score of C?

Thanks.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Alan Porter — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:10:16 GMT

Hi Mike

The variant is the number generated when we multiple two numbers, the Sire Improvement Index (how well the sire or sire has done with the cross relative to how he has done with all other mares) and the Broodmare Sire Improvement Index (how well all the mares bred to the sire or sire line have done when bred to all other stallions).

The resulting number - the variant - reflects how well the cross has done relative to expectation. For example, a variant of 1.0 means it has done was well as it might be expected to have done.

The variants increase exponentially, so we have converted them to letter grades.

For the Maria's Mon filly, you could get some ideas from the TrueNicks Broodmare Analysis, or we would be happy to compile a Pedigree Consultants Broodmare report on the mare.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

chris — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 03:16:44 GMT

to steer a breeder to consider only B or better "True Nick" ratings when planning a mating is folly!!! We would lose some great horses...Barbaro...Dunkirk... Songandaprayer..to name only a few of the countless....if past breeders followed your advice....True Nicks can be a dangerous tool in excluding sires for consideration.

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Mike Rouser — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:22:27 GMT

Alan, it has been my endeavor to better educate myself in pedigree analysis, in order to elevate our mares potential. Two questions: First, would you explain to me the term "variant" and its meaning. Second, I would appreciate your thoughts regarding potential stallion prospects for a Maria's Mon filly out of a Storm Cat mare; currently in foal to Mustanfar. Have a great Thanksgiving holiday and thank you for your feedback.

Mike Rouser

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

Alan Porter — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:52:08 GMT

Hi John,

Thank you very much for your comments and as a stallion owner your continued support of TrueNicks, and congratulations on Cascanding's stakes win.

I would the first to agree that one should consider all areas of the pedigree when planning a prospective mating. We have never said that TrueNicks is the "silver bullet" but an important, and at least quantifiable, measure that one should use when making their breeding decisions.Whether for genotypical or phenotypical reasons, or a combination of both, there appears to be a strong correlation between the sire/broodmare sire cross (or sireline/broodmare sireline cross) and success at stakes level.

With Cascading, we are dealing with a direct sire/broodmare sire cross, which in hypothetical terms is going to supply 75% of the genetics.

In the case of A.P. Indy with Storm Cat mares, A.P. Indy has sired 10.2% stakes winners out of mares by Storm Cat, and 16.7% stakes winners out of all other mares, so while 10/2% is a stakes production that most nicks would indeed envy, in the case of A.P Indy he clearly prefers several other broodmare sires to Storm Cat.

However, if we run a TrueNicks Broodmare Analysis for Teeming, we see that although the nick is a C (it has moved up just slightly since Cascading won her stakes) with a variant of 0.89 (meaning it has performed just a little below average - that figure being 1.00), the Broodmare Sire Improvement Index shows that the Storm Cat mares that have been bred to A.P. Indy have done 1.45 times better (45% better) than when bred to all other stallions.

The TrueNick rating is not designed to be the final arbiter of the mating, but if one is considering whether to mate a mare as valuable as Teeming with A.P. Indy, one should at least know that a) Storm Cat mares are not the optimal match for A.P. Indy; b) that despite this, A.P. Indy has improved the Storm Cat mares bred to him (relative to all other sires); and c) only two of the stakes winners on the A.P. Indy/Storm Cat cross are graded, only one winning as high as grade two level (shown on the TrueNicks page which we believe is invaluable information in assessing the worth of the nick).Incidentally, the Broodmare Sire Improvement Index which reveals A.P. Indy is improving the Storm Cat mares, bred to him is a feature unique to TrueNicks.

With those things in mind, and knowing that A.P. Indy sired Rags to Riches out of dam of the mare, one might well consider the chance worth taking, but it's good to have the information at hand before making that choice.

It's interesting to compare Cascading with your other good A.P. Indy filly, Serenading, a stakes winner just the week before, who is bred on the same cross as Rags to Riches - A.P. Indy/Deputy Minister. That cross is TrueNicks rated A++, and has produced two grade one winners.

With regard to looking back further in the pedigree, Better Than Honour (dam of Rags to Riches) is out of a Blushing Groom mare, and A.P. Indy has not been a good combination with Blushing Groom at all. One might suggest that Rags to Riches owes her ability to her outstanding parentage, and the very strong affinity that A.P. Indy has for Deputy Minister mares (reflected in the high nick rating).

re: Q & A -- What Is The Lowest Recommended TrueNicks Grade?

john g. sikura — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:16:37 GMT

Alan. Still puzzled by your D nick rating on Cascading. As you know she is a 3/4 sister in blood to Rags to Riches whom we bred and now own as a stakes winning 2 year old filly. The nick description identifying the A.P. Indy/ Storm Cat mating as the cause of your rating seems to leave out many important elements of the pedigree. Do all of you nicks identity the sire and broodmare sire of the dam as the total genetic potential of the mating?. Seems very superficial not to include affinities close up in the pedigree beyond the broodmare sire. After all genetic contribution is much deeper than a broodmare sire John G. Sikura