Perfect Nicking: When a Sire and Broodmare Sire Go Perfect

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Kjell Sjoberg — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 11:22:11 GMT

Pse, what is known about crosses with Mr.Prospector. Positive as Flower Alley & Roman Ruler or negative or just statisical. An answer would comehandily.

Kjell , swedish breeder kjell@ket.kth.se

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Alan Porter — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 15:31:40 GMT

Hi Chris,

If the stallion was a capable runner, or proven sire, his own rating wouldn't worry me. The rating is an expression of how well the cross has worked, so there will always be exceptions. A good runner who is an outcross to the best nicks for his sire is always going to be an interesting proposition.

Carl, thanks. I met Leon once too.He and I were on a panel in Sydney, Australia together.

Stephen, Empire Maker looks good value at the moment. It's interesting that Pioneerof the Nile, in addition to being out of a Lord At War mare is from the family of In Reality (doubled in Empire Maker).

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

brogers — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 01:35:51 GMT

Mege23,

With Smart Strike having his close relation Dance Smartly by Danzig, mares by Danzig and his sons look a natural fit.

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Stephen — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 21:15:32 GMT

With two to race, both of Empire Maker's foals out of Lord At War mares are G1 winners.

I have two stakes producing Lord At War mares, one a graded producer, and I'm looking very closely at him.

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Carl Davis — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 16:19:33 GMT

Alan,

I respect and like your work! I also studied Tesio's and Rasmussen's methods. I even discussed breeding philosphies with Leon over lunch, one on one, for 2 1/2 hours back in the 80s at a Handicapping Tourny in Vegas.The man was wise and cordial.

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

chris — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 15:02:52 GMT

would you recommend breeding to a stallion if he himself is rated a "D" by true nicks??

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Alan Porter — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 13:56:57 GMT

Sorry, calculator slip a decimal point or two. Should have said chances of getting a coin to come up heads five times in a row is 3.125%

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

joel Zamzow — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 01:58:49 GMT

I surelu enjoy these postings.. I have a

Stalwart mare that has been a good producer for me. She's produced two stakes horses for me. In looking for stallions to mate with her, I've come across Dove Hunt. True Nicks has him with two stakes winners out of three, when bred to Stalwart mares.

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Alan Porter — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 22:20:20 GMT

Edward,

One of three things is happening. You don't have a fair coin; you're Rosencrantz or Guildenstern; or you're confused about probability.

Assuming neither of the first two for a minute if you really tossed a fair coin five times, and it came up heads each, if there is nothing in the living room, you have witnessed something that that there is only a 3.125% chance of happening. However, if all else is fair, the chance of the coin coming up heads next time is still 50%. Each coin toss is a separate isolated event. Thus to continue to get heads indicates something very strange, as it did to R or G.

However, breeding horse is rather different. To start with it is not an outcome with a binary result (like heads or tails). More importantly, breeding a horse is not like using a fair coin, as there are many factors that potentially "weight" the coin.

Among these is the quality of the individuals used; the environment in which they are raised and trained; and the physical and genetic affinity of the parents.

When we see that a stallion has sired two or three stakes winners from only two or three starters on a cross (Distorted Humor is, or certainly was, three for three with three different El Prado mares for example) tends to indicated genotypical and/or phenotypical affinities between the sire and broodmare sire.

Thus, all things being equal, while common sense tells us that 100% strike rates aren't going to be maintained, it's a lot better idea to drill for oil where it has been found rather than where it has not.

So, when you're betting if you're using a fair coin, don't let the past influence you're expectation of the future, each being a separate unconnected event, but if you are breeding horses, you're probably going to beat random odds if you breed to proven crosses.

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Edward — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:08:29 GMT

I flipped a penny in my living room five times and it came up heads five times so it must mean that flipping a coin while standing in my living room will produce an outcome that favors heads over tails. Good luck with that.

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Mindy C. — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 23:21:17 GMT

Tiznow-Storm Cat crossings...

awesome...

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Michael D — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 21:22:22 GMT

Thanks this is very useful information, good luck in 2010!

re: Perfect Nicking - when a sire and broodmare sire go perfect

Mege23 — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:06:22 GMT

The Tiznow cross with Slewpy mares has only been tried twice, with the same mare (Hepatica). Both offspring -- Slew's Tizzy and Slew's Tiznow -- are stakes winners.

Indian Charlie with Tank's Prospect has been tried twice (two different mares) and produced two stakes performers -- Pascasio R and Trout River Red.

While not perfect the Smart Strike - Belong to Me cross has met with remarkable success: of 5 offspring three are stakes winners (Papa Clem, Striking Tomisue, Lookin' at Lucky) and two are millionaires (Papa Clem, Lookin' at Lucky).