Unlocking Winners

Hard to get past Orb in Preakness

2013-05-18T02:25:00Z

The Preakness is rarely if ever the wagering opportunity the Kentucky Derby is.

The field is half the size, and the public has relevant information staring it in the face, namely the Derby result.

From a betting perspective, my favorite Preakness' are when I don't like the Derby winner. That is not the case this year.

Orb looked much the best in Louisville, and the only way I can see beating him in Baltimore is to play him to bounce coming back in two weeks off a big effort. In that backup scenario, the fresh horse Departing will be my play.

Departing is an improving horse, and he encountered traffic in his only loss when 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. He also may have bled that day, as he got first-time Lasix in his next start when winning the Illinois Derby in solid fashion. It would be sweet irony if the Illinois Derby winner won the Preakness in the year that Churchill Downs Inc. inexplicably excluded the Illinois Derby from the Kentucky Derby qualifying system.

In addition to being my longshot upset pick, Departing is going to be my key underneath Orb in the vertical exotics. I think the Preakness, like the Derby, will set up well for off-the-pace types.

My other opinion going into Saturday's card at Pimlico is that Howe Great could be live at 12-1 in Race 11 the Dixie (G2). I really liked this Hat Trick (Jpn) colt early in his 3yo campaign. His development stalled out in the latter half of last year, but I thought his victory in a tough allowance race at Keeneland last month could signify a forward move in his development. I'll play him to hit the board and key him in the multi-race wagers.

Kentucky Derby 139 Review

2013-05-05T00:46:00Z

After reviewing the Kentucky Derby replay, it looks like we had a pretty straight forward race this year in terms of evaluating the performances.

Although he did benefit from a closer-friendly pace scenario, Orb looked like the best horse in the race. He was bumped at the start and was 16th the first time under the wire. Orb took the first turn three-wide, settled on the backstretch, then launched while 5-6-wide on the second turn.

Once straightened for home, he set his sights on the leaders with a good forward focus. Orb wore down Normandy Invasion (who felt the winner's presence closing in) by the 1/8 pole. Orb hit the line 2 1/2 lengths in front. He appears to be an excellent candidate to go for the Triple Crown.

Runner-up Golden Soul delivered a very solid performance, though his finishing position might have been a bit ground and pace aided. Robby Albarado gave Golden Soul a perfect ride. Far back off the hot pace, Golden Soul saved ground all the way to the quarter pole, angled out and closed for 2nd.

Third-place Revolutionary got a very similar trip to Golden Soul. Calvin Borel got Revolutionary to the rail early in 17th place. He followed Golden Soul, only leaving the innermost path briefly at the sixteenth pole. Revolutionary finished in a stiff drive, got a head past tiring Normandy Invasion and galloped out well.

Normandy Invasion ran a big race, better than his 4th-place finish will look on paper. Bumped early, Normandy Invasion fought through traffic and found his way to the inside early. He was in good position by the 3/4 pole in 6th place. Jockey Javier Castellano will probably take some criticism for pulling the trigger early. He had Normandy Invasion out 4-wide, on the move before the 3/8 pole.

Normandy Invasion surged to the lead while 3-wide at the quarter pole. He held until the 1/8 pole, when he succumbed to Orb's pressure from behind. Normandy Invasion missed 3rd by a head. It could reasonably be argued he was 2nd best here.

Mylute steadied early and was in 18th-place, just outside of Revolutionary the first time under the wire. Rosie Napravnik then followed Orb, launching a rally 5 or 6-wide at the 3/8 pole in the winner's wake. Mylute was in position to crash the tri or super, but he hung a little late.

Sixth-place finisher Oxbow broke alertly under Gary Stevens and secured a nice stalking, inside position. Moving up under his own power, Oxbow grabbed second at the 3/4 pole, 3 1/2 lengths behind the leader Palace Malice. Staying on the inside, Stevens pushed the button around the 5/16 pole, but was outmoved by Normandy Invasion. Oxbow was unable to stay with leaders late but was the best of the rest. He might deserve a little extra credit for being near the pace.

No one else ran terribly well, although all have the excuse of a sloppy track.

Palace Malice was far too aggressive in his first race wearing blinkers. He set fractions of :22.57, :45.33, and 1:09.80, and was cooked after a mile in 1:36.16.

Verrazano and Itsmyluckyday stalked the hot pace and faded badly.

After viewing the overhead replay today (Sunday) , I realized Will Take Charge deserves a trip note. He was rallying inside of Orb and checked pretty badly turning for home. His recovery was not great, but it was a significant loss of momentum.

Oaks Day!

2013-05-02T17:16:00Z

With a 70% chance of rain on Kentucky Derby Day, enjoy the fast and firm tracks as long as they last on Oaks day!

Churchill Downs

Race 7 2:08 ET

Edgewood Stakes 3yo fillies 1 1/16 miles turf

2 Broken Spell (15-1 ML odds) ran very well on the turf at age two. She has been repeatedly run on surfaces she doesn't like at age three, but I am willing to take a flyer on her to wake up at a big price here back on the green.

Race 8 3:02 ET

The Eight Belles (G3) 3yo fillies 7f dirt

3 Blueeyesintherein (8-1 ML odds) was 2-for-2 at Churchill last year including the Debutante Stakes (G3). She was full of run in her return race, the Instant Racing Stakes, at Oaklawn Park. I love how she shot up the rail and sustained her run through a :23-3 final quarter. There is plenty of speed in here to set up her stalk-and-pounce move. We haven't seen the best yet from 8 Gold Medal Dancer (15-1 ML odds), who should be closing late. She will appreciate the added ground she gets here.

Race 9 3:52 ET

The Alysheba (G2) 4yos and up 1 1/16 miles dirt

On my pick 4 ticket I am 5-deep here, just trying to get through the leg with 4-6-7-8-9. But vertically, I could consider keying on 7 Macho Macho (5-1 ML odds) if his price drifts too high. Macho Macho makes his second start at age four, and I think there is improvement potential based on what he showed last year.

Race 10 4:44 ET 3yos 1 1/16 miles turf

I am very high on the talent of 4 Noble Tune (3-1 ML odds), whose only loss was a strong second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). He will be a pick-4 single on my main ticket.

Race 11 5:45 ET

Kentucky Oaks (G1) 3yo fillies 1 1/8 miles dirt

In one of the best looking Kentucky Oaks I can recall, I will try to beat favored Dreaming of Julia here with two fillies: 4 Unlimited Budget (7-2 ML odds) and 11 Close Hatches (6-1 ML odds). The pace looks to be brutal, and both of my picks are very talented fillies who should be able to stalk and finish.

Handicapping the Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

2013-04-11T01:52:00Z

Keeneland Race 10 5:40 ET

Blue Grass S. (G1) 3yos 1 1/8 miles Polytrack

As always, handicapping a Polytrack race at Keeneland is not about identifying the most talented horse. It is about identifying the horse that will like the track and figures to get a manageable trip. This is one of the most wide open editions of the race I've ever seen. So many directions to go...

1 Dynamic Sky: Raced greenly last year when finishing 2nd in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) here at Keeneland, but he showed he liked the surface. He has some spatial issues - often leaning on other horses or running into space awkwardly, and the addition of blinkers at age three has not helped so far. Last time he was too keen trying to press outside the extremely fast Verrazano. He is better off settling early. I like his pedigree for Poly and the 9f distance (by Sky Mesa, out of a Distorted Humor mare than won a stake going 12f on turf). Hoping Rosario learned about him last time and will have an improved plan of attack. Consider if double-digit odds.

2 My Name Is Michael: No excuses when punchless in the stretch run (as the favorite!?) in the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway (Note on the Spiral Stakes replay: program #1-5 in that race return here) . He goes blinkers on here. He has shown a decent finishing move going 8.5 furlongs -- when second to Avie's Quality at Woodbine and third behind Falling Sky and Dynamic Sky at Tampa. Rosario jumps off of this Bill Mott trainee in favor of the Mark Casse trainee to his inside. Needs turnaround and then some.

3 Undrafted: Here's the stretchout speed for trainer Wesley Ward. He won his debut at this track impressively, but that was going 4.5 furlongs. Distance is a question, but note that he did win going two turns on the Gulfstream turf. His third-place finish in the Swale last time was a good run. He's relaxing better without the blinkers. I have a feeling Ward will have him set for a top effort, and if the track is playing to speed he becomes interesting to me, especially at double-digits.

4 Java's War: I really liked this War Pass colt on the turf last year and was surprised by his second behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), but note he is not a real pretty mover on the dirt. He looked better on the Poly here last year when third in the Breeders' Futurity. Contender.

5 Palace Malice: Had no chance last time when he moved early into a wall of horses and was bumped and blocked in the Louisiana Derby (G2) (brutal trip, watch the 2 horse). I liked him in that spot, but I'm less bullish here on two weeks rest and moving to Poly.

6 Channel Isle: There was no lack of try in him when finishing 7th, beaten 4 1/2 lengths in the Spiral. Figs say he is not nearly fast enough. Will need a fast pace to help him. He likes Poly, but seems outclassed for the win. Could maybe stab with him underneath in the tri or super at a huge price.

7 Uncaptured: Got a pretty good trip when finishing evenly behind Black Onyx in the Spiral. He was late to change leads, but to me he looked good physically, like he has grown up a bit at age three. He'll need to do better than that here, but improvement is quite possible second off the layoff. Contender.

8 Charming Kitten: Got a tough trip in his only Polytrack run, and progeny of Kitten's Joy usually love this surface. Pletcher-Ramsey is a potent owner-trainer combo, although he has finished behind a handful of today's opponents. On the plus side, the three turf runs down in Florida should have him ready for today's task. Fitness is extremely important on this track. Couldn't run down Rydilluc last time, but he gets a four-pound weight shift today. Contender, but not for me in the win slot.

9 Tesseron: The three-year-old debut wasn't too bad, and the first (Black Onyx) and fourth-place (Crop Report) finishers returned to win stakes. My first time through this race, I liked how this Tapit colt looks on paper here. But on video, I see him running in spots in a couple of his performances. He has some ability for sure, but I get the feeling he hasn't completely figured out how to win. Not overly enthusiastic about him in a big field on the stretch to 9 furlongs.

10 Footbridge: Tough to bet a maiden winner shipping from California to Lexington, going first-time Poly, but Footbridge has some foundation after running third-second-second-first in some quality maiden fields out West. Jock yanked him back off the pace last time and he came with a good rally. That's a good experience. Tough spot for first-time vs. winners, but the pedigree looks good for Poly (by Street Cry, out of an English mare). I could get interested if he's a big price.

11 Balance the Books: He showed a strong late move on the turf last year and should like 9 furlongs, but he was disappointing last time when trying Polytrack for the first time. He was closer to the pace than usual and didn't fire at all. Trainer Chad Brown puts him back in here on the all-weather (?). Improvement expected, as he's much better than his last. Candidate to come flying late.

12 West Hills Giant: He ran well for second in the Gotham (G3) when sent from an outside post. I'd expect him to be forwardly placed here again. He's run well on turf and dirt. Another contender.

13 Rydilluc: He's been dynamic during his three-race win streak on the turf. He likes to press the pace, but he has a nice finishing move. He came home his final three furlongs in :34-2 last time going 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream turf. That is very strong for a pace presser. And although he got a soft pace up front, there were horses on his flank trying to press him. I liked the way he reacted to that pressure, with a forward burst. He's outside of the other possible speed types and if he doesn't break well, a very tough trip looms. Turf front-runners who can punch home often transfer well to the Poly in my experience. Talented contender but must overcome post. Looked quite good working at Keeneland (video).

14 Fear the Kitten: Little Kitten's Joy colt was a clever claim for $40,000 in his career debut, but I'm not crazy about what he's done in the graded stakes ranks, and this is a tough post.

Conclusions: Trying to predict how this race will unfold is not easy. The talent of Rydilluc is tempting, but I can't endorse taking ~4-1 on Edgar Prado from the 13 post on a new surface. There will be contenders offered at 10-1 or more, and favorites have a subpar record in grade stakes on Keeneland's Polytrack. I picked Balance the Books on That Handicapping Show, so if he's double digits, he will be my play to rebound second off the layoff. Not much would surprise me here.

Fla, LA Derby picks

2013-03-28T15:35:00Z

The pressure will be on the favorites in this weekend's major Kentucky Derby preps -- Itsmyluckyday in the Florida Derby (G1) and Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby (G2) -- to earn their way to Louisville.

Although both are consensus top-five three-year-olds, Itsmyluckyday's fleet run in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and Revolutionary's trouble-filled victory in the Withers Stakes (G3) were worth just 10 points each under the new Derby qualifying system, which in my opinion overly weights the final round of Derby preps.

Both colts deserve to be in the Derby, so in the interest of having the best field possible, I am hoping for fair tracks and clean trips for everyone this weekend.

Gulfstream Park

Race 12 6:19 EDT

Florida Derby (G1) 3yos (1 1/8 miles dirt)

I rate 3 Itsmyluckyday not only the most likely winner of this race but the best three-year-old in America. His wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull were beauties. This Lawyer Ron colt has a unique combination of relaxed running style and high cruising speed. He came home his final 5/16 in 31-flat last time after tracking 1 Shanghai Bobby through splits of :46-3 and 1:10-3.

Compare that with 6 Orb, whose :32-1 final 5/16 in the Fountain of Youth (G2) looked good visually to many people, but was aided by a fast pace up front and a tiring (injured) leader. I do think Orb will like the added distance he gets here, but I still want to play against him, as he will have to improve to get the win.

There are two price shots I find interesting in this race for consideration in the vertical exotic wagers or on multi-race spread plays. 2 Pick of the Litter was a revelation winning an off-the-turf MSW by 7 1/2 lengths at this track and distance on February 27. Despite the 4-horse field, that was a very good run. He is bounce risk here, but still can be played at a big price.

I also like 9 Are You Kidding Me a little bit, although his best performances have come on turf. He tries dirt for the first time for trainer Roger Attfield and should get a good pace to close into.

Fair Grounds

Race 9 5:44 CDT

Louisiana Derby (G2) 3yos (1 1/8 miles dirt)

2 Palace Malice ran a respectable third, beaten just a half length, in his two-turn debut in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Not only was he trying a route for the first time, but he found himself taken back to ninth early and pretty much ran the entire race between horses, both new experiences for this Curlin colt. He responded well to the new scenarios, and he also looked like he got a little tired, shortening stride slightly. He is a candidate to improve mentally and physically here in his third start of the year.

3 Revolutionary should be favored here based on his 2-for-2 record going two turns, a very fast maiden win, and an impressive, trouble-filled victory in the Withers Stakes (G3). But I can't recommend taking too short a price here for a few reasons. Revolutionary will be making his first start in eight weeks and his first start outside of New York. Louisiana is not the most shipper-friendly state, and it would be no surprise if Revolutionary encounters traffic in this 14-horse field.

8 Code West had an interesting running line in the Risen Star, pressing the pace from the inside, falling back to 4th, then nearly re-rallying for the win. His breeding (by Lemon Drop Kid, out of a Saint Ballado mare) suggests the added ground today could be in this grinder's favor.

I believe the winner comes from those three, but I'll mention two others for consideration. 10 Titletown Five is likely to be lone speed on the stretchout, and trainer D. Wayne Lukas is having a renaissance year.

Midnight Lute is red hot as a sire right now and will be attracting all kinds of support at the windows and at the sales, but 11 Mylute should be a big price here. I tend to think he's a cut below these, but having seen most of his races, I do think he is an improvement candidate with the blinkers coming off.

Kentucky Derby Rankings

2013-03-17T20:07:00Z

We are less than seven weeks from the Kentucky Derby (G1), and only a handful of horses have earned their place in the starting gate under the new points qualifying system that places enormous weight on the final two rounds of Derby preps.

My clear #1 rated horse -- Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Itsmyluckyday -- has just 10 points, not nearly enough to make it Louisville. He'll need to run well in his final prep, the Florida Derby (G1).

Meanwhile, eligibility is not the challenge for my #2 horse Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Verrazano, whose 50 points should be plenty to qualify for the Derby. Verrazano is an extraordinarily talented horse and he ran fast winning at Tampa, but I think he needs to learn to stay within himself when behind horses to be a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby. Verrazano's trainer Todd Pletcher will have the luxury not many trainers have -- he can use Verrazano's final race before the Derby as a true prep.

There was only Derby points race last weekend, and D. Wayne Lukas trainees Will Take Charge and Oxbow ran pretty well to finish 1-2 in the Rebel Stakes (G2). The final time of the Rebel was a hair faster than a solid field of older fillies and mares ran in the Azeri Stakes (G3). Will Take Charge finished with better energy, while Oxbow yet again moved a tad early into a solid pace.

Rankings

1. Itsmyluckyday: My confident pick to win the Kentucky Derby if the race were today. Love the recent one-mile workout.

2. Verrazano: Tampa win was nice, but he looked a bit rank with a horse in front of him. It's hard to win the Derby on pure speed alone.

3. Revolutionary: Moves up with the retirement of Violence and disappointing efforts from the Remsen three.

4. Orb: Got a perfect pace setup in the Fountain of Youth, but it looks like more distance will be his friend.

5. Hear the Ghost: He shined going two turns in the San Felipe. Ghostzapper is emerging as a nice sire.

6. War Academy: Another who took beautifully to two turns. Baffert says he will run in one of the major final preps.

7. Flashback: Moved into a very hot pace and was spotting Hear the Ghost 4 pounds in San Felipe.

8. Shanghai Bobby: Putting him here out of respect, and the juvenile champ could move forward in second start at age three.

9. Noble Tune: Loved his return win on Tampa turf. Blue Grass Stakes reportedly next.

10. Normandy Invasion: Should improve off of Risen Star performance.

11. Vyjack: Running style change (he came from 10th early to win the Gotham) suddenly makes him intriguing to me.

12. Will Take Charge: Hard not to like the way he was reaching out for ground while winning the Rebel.

13. Oxbow: Keeps firing decent efforts. Good pedigree, hearty constitution.

14. Code West: Grinder could keep moving forward with distance.

15. Palace Malice: Good effort in the Risen Star. I could see him learning from that race. My sleeper.

16. Tiz a Minister: Has found a home going two turns on dirt, closing from the clouds.

17. Frac Daddy: Giving him another chance. Outworked super filly Pure Fun, according to DRF.

18. Crop Report: Long-striding colt is an intriguing specimen. Hit gate, then came running in U.S. debut.

19. Balance the Books: Dirt is a question, but believe he will be closing well going 10f.

20. Rydilluc: Another interesting turf horse. He appeared to move ok on dirt in his debut.

Purple Egg and the Tampa Bay Derby

2013-03-06T22:20:00Z

If undefeated Purple Egg fails to run well in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on Saturday, it won't be because of an injury or a lack of fitness, says trainer Jane Cibelli.

Scratched from the Gulfstream Park Derby on January 1 and the Pasco Stakes on January 12, Purple Egg will be making his first start in more than three months. Maybe it's partly his name, his undefeated record and style of victory, or his back story, but this horse has a following, including me.

If you are considering betting on Purple Egg, you have two publicized (semi-mysterious) sickness excuses and a month-long gap in his workout pattern on your mind. I spoke with Cibelli on Wednesday to get the lowdown.

Here were my findings, her words in quotes:

"There was no injury. He was going to go to the Gulfstream Park Derby and was on target for that. About two days before that race he came up with a minor temperature, around 102, and was scratched. I then made the mistake of trying to push him into the Pasco. I should have taken a step back. It was a mistake on my part. I pushed on him too hard, and he got sick again. I had to back off of him"

How has he trained since then?

"Beginning February 3, he’s worked every seven days, hasn’t missed a beat. His last work on February 24 actually was a ¾ mile work in 1:13 and change, but (the clockers) only got us 5/8. He worked past the wire. Instead of working him again before the Tampa Bay Derby, I let him two-minute lick a mile on Sunday and pick it up the last quarter. He came home in 25, and he did it very well. He was pulling the kid out of the saddle.

"He is an improving horse. He’ll have to improve considerably with these horses, but I believe he can. He’s gotten bigger and stronger, and he’s coming into the race perfect. He’s certainly a stakes horse. The question is if he is a minor stakes horse or a graded stakes horse. He deserves this chance. There’s no excuses there at all. He’s 100% fit ready to go and healthy."

Do you think he'll like two turns?

"I've always thought so, but you never know until they do it. He is the kind of horse you can put him where you want him. He’ll do whatever you want him to do, and we have trained him that way -- behind other horses, letting dirt him in the face, and then asking him to go on."

How well does rider Elvis Trujillo know him?

"Well, (laughing) Elvis was on him twice. He was on him back in July at Monmouth for what was supposed to be his debut. He made it out to the track and dumped Elvis and got loose and had to be scratched. Then we tried again and he dropped Elvis before the gate. He attacked the pony viciously, knocked the pony girl off the pony and tried to stomp on her. That’s why we decided to geld him. Elvis has been in my ear to ride him back if he ever got the chance.

"Gelding him was the right decision. He's still not an easy horse to be around. But he was vicious before, mean. He had one thing on his mind, and it wasn't running."

Purple Egg (by Lion Heart) is out of the Prized mare Luminous Prize, who won twice going 1 1/8 miles on turf and was stakes placed going 1 1/2 miles at Hollywood Park.

I've thought all long Purple Egg could get two turns based on his energy distribution and emotional conformation. I really liked his win in the Inaugural Stakes.

Rather than distance, I think Purple Egg's biggest challenge on Saturday will be speed, namely the speed of undefeated Verrazano, who should be heavily favored.

If Verrazano transfers his one-turn form at Gulfstream to two turns at Tampa, and avoids bouncing off his brilliant NW1X win at Gulfstream on Feb. 2, the rest are running for a distant second.

The other horse I like in this field in terms of the road to the Kentucky Derby is Dynamic Sky, who has a nice distance pedigree, a good two-year-old foundation, and room to improve if he can iron out some greenness issues.

Looking for value in the Big Cap

2013-02-28T20:01:00Z

The public is likely to view the 2013 Santa Anita Handicap (G1) as a two-horse race between Ron the Greek and Game On Dude. They might be right, but I doubt there will be any value in going along with that opinion.

I like a pair of improving four-year-olds Called to Serve (6-1 ML) and Stephanoatsee (8-1 ML) to run big. Called to Serve was Grade 2-placed in the summer of his 3yo campaign, then improved in the fall when transferred to trainer Nick Canani. I thought his win in the Discovery Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct was powerful (:35-4 final three furlongs), followed by a nice hand-ride win in the Broad Brush Stakes at Laurel.

His speed figures are a touch below the top two, but they are within striking range. His closing fractions are excellent going 1 1/8 miles, he has been winning with energy to spare, and his pedigree (by Afleet Alex out of a Kris S. mare) suggests 1 1/4 miles will be within his scope.

I also like Stephanoatsee, more to hit the board than as a win threat. Called to Serve left him in his wake in the Discovery, but I think Stephanoatsee is improving, and most importantly, he should appreciate the added ground. Watch how well he finished going 1 1/8 miles when second to Guilt Trip in the Strub Stakes (G2).

Derby preps get serious

2013-02-21T15:23:00Z

Two horses will earn their way into the Kentucky Derby (G1) this weekend, as the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Risen Star (G2) stakes both offer 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner.

As convoluted as the new points system is, it appears safe to say that 50 points will make the field.

Unfortunately, I think the public will choose the right horse as the favorite in both preps. Undefeated Cashcall Futurity (G2) winner Violence is listed at 9-to-5 on the morning line in the Fountain of Youth. Remsen Stakes runner-up Normandy Invasion is 5-to-2 in the Risen Star. I expect both will go off a click or two below those numbers.

I was not terribly impressed with Violence's first two career wins, but there is no knocking how he shipped East to West to win the Cashcall. By Medaglia d'Oro, Violence is a long striding colt with a fast cruising speed. If Violence comes out running in his first start at age three, someone will have to take a big step forward to beat him.

I see at least three possible candidates to do so, or at least to fill out the vertical exotics. Orb has finally circled back to the promise he showed when finishing third behind Violence in both horses' debuts. Orb's NW1 win on January 26 was fine. He checked back early behind a slow pace, then came home his final three furlongs in :37-2, a good closing fraction for Gulfstream. Another reason to like Orb to get a piece is that there is a lot of speed in here.

Cerro (Ire) won the split division of Orb's allowance race and did so in considerably faster fashion. Showing good energy from start to finish, Cerro set solid fractions and still had something in reserve. I like him on the slight turnback here from just off the pace if he can build on that demanding effort.

Speak Logistics was taken up at a key point in his 3yo debut in the Sam Davis (G3). He was moving nicely at the time, although he faded to 4th late. He can improve here 2nd off the layoff, and that makes him competitive to hit the board. He gets a positive jock switch to Joel Rosario.

I find the Risen Star to be a slightly deeper race, although again I think the public is going to land on the most likely winner. Normandy Invasion finished second in what was arguably the best/fastest two-year-old race of 2012 -- the Remsen Stakes. Normandy Invasion finishes his races with a rush -- he came home in :36-1 (!) in the Remsen. He should be moving best of all in the long FG stretch on Saturday.

Both Palace Malice and Oxbow figure to be forwardly placed, and the pace could be reasonable. I thought Palace Malice ran well in his 3yo debut when he chased lone speed Majestic Hussar home in the slop at GP. I think Palace Malice has the mind and breeding to stretch out.

Oxbow is unlikely to get the soft pace he got when winning the Lecomte (G3), but that was a solid run nonetheless, and he has a good pedigree for added distance.

Proud Strike has taken a nice step forward in all of his races. He is coming off of a 7 1/2-length maiden win at FG that saw the 2nd and 3rd-place horses come back to win. I think he is a threat to hit the board in his first start vs. winners.

Code West is one of the tougher reads in this race. He is coming off of a fast second behind Super Ninety Nine, who shipped to Oak Lawn and blitzed the Southwest Stakes on Monday. Code West didn't look terribly smooth in any of his performances, but he does go blinkers off, one of my favorite angles on Bob Baffert trainees.

Capo Bastone: Overrated or underrated?

2013-02-14T16:01:00Z

Capo Bastone will be the latest horse to run back from the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when he goes in race 9, a non-winners allowance, at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.

So far the Juvenile runners have a 9:1-2-1 record on the comeback. Dynamic Sky, who finished a troubled 6th in the Juvenile, won the Pasco and finished 2nd in the Sam Davis (G3), both good efforts. Game Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby came back to run a fast second in the Holy Bull S. (G3).

But the rest of the run-backs have suggested this was a sub-par running. Juvenile runner-up He's Had Enough has disappointed, as have 4th-place Fortify (6th in the UAE 2000 Guineas) and Title Contender (11th in the G1 Cashcall Futurity). Seventh-place Speak Logistics ran an ok, troubled 4th in the Sam Davis, and last-place Monument ran third in a Cal-bred stake.

Last year's Juvenile was as checkered and puzzling edition as I can recall:

-Eight of the nine horses in the field were racing without Lasix for the first time in their lives.

-The surface at Santa Anita was very quirky. I deemed it a strong inside speed bias, a throwout track for many horses, especially late-closing stamina types.

-The race featured a fast pace but a plodding final 5/16 in :34-1 and a slow final time of 1:44-2.

-With that race shape, a closer absolutely should have won, yet Shanghai Bobby re-rallied on the lead, albeit with the grain of the track bias.

Capo Bastone ran into some traffic on the turn and also reportedly bled in the Juvenile. Despite the great pace setup, he hung in the stretch and finished third. And while it can be argued he ran against a speed bias in both of his two-turn races at Santa Anita, it also could be argued he did not finish his races very strongly, with the exception of his debut (when he got a wicked pace to close into going 5 1/2 furlongs).

Capo Bastone will be making his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher on Saturday. Pletcher does very well with new acquisitions, although he inherited Capo from John Sadler, one of the West Coast's highest win percentage trainers.

Listed at 8-to-5 on the morning line, Capo could emerge as a Derby contender here, but I think he is probably a bet against. I'll lean on Sky Commander and maybe Duke of the City or Taken by the Storm in the late 50-cent pick 4 and/or pick 5, covering Capo Bastone only when keying on price shots in other legs.

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Trainer Bob Baffert has half the field in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on Sunday, with Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy. That's a solid trio. I also like the Ron Ellis-trainee Treasury Bill to be closing at the wire in this seven-furlong race, and I will like him even more when he goes two turns

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Best wishes to 2009 Champion three-year-old filly and Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, who is recovering from surgery to treat a serious colon injury after delivering a Bernardini filly on Feb. 12.

I saw Rachel run in person twice, in the 2009 Preakness Stakes (G1) and in the 2010 Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2). She dazzled me both times with her amazing cruising speed and class.

Rachel broke from the 13-hole in the Preakness, battled the very good sprinter Big Drama into the ground, then held off Derby winner Mine That Bird.

The Fleur de Lis run is a probably a bit underrated. Note the trio of sub-24 quarters early, and the final time of 1:48.78 was about three lengths faster than champion older male Blame ran winning the Stephen Foster (G1) on the same card (and Rachel carried 124 to Blame's 120).

Denk's Derby Index

2013-02-04T23:36:00Z

1. Itsmyluckyday: He's run two very fast races in a row, and I love the way he gradually doles out his energy. Just enough quality in the family tree for me to believe. He's my market leader for now.

2. Verrazano: Pure brilliance. On some level he reminds me of Quality Road or Curlin, both of whom delivered huge performances at GP early in their three-year-old seasons.

3. Overanalyze: Has a perfect 2yo foundation, and I love the way he re-rallied to win a fairly fast edition of the Remsen.

4. Violence: Has plenty of upside off a nice 2yo campaign, pedigree.

5. Revolutionary: Followed up a fast maiden win by overcoming traffic to win the Withers.

6. Shanghai Bobby: Champ could move forward off his 3yo debut.

7. Flashback: Full sibling to G1 winner Zazu remained perfect with ridiculously easy win in 4-horse Lewis S.

8. Normandy Invasion: Two Tapits on my Derby list?! We're just starting to see what he can do with good mares.

9. Delhomme: Understand why some doubt this freewheeler going 10f, but he was a fast 2yo who moved forward in every start.

10. Tiz the Truth: Love his trip progression, and note that final quarter in :23-2 in his maiden win.

11. Dynamic Sky: Still a work in progress mentally, he has a good 2yo foundation and a sneaky good pedigree for 10f.

12. Noble Tune: Absolutely love what this colt showed at age two. Hope they give him a legit shot on dirt.

13. Oxbow: Another nice pedigree, and he looks like he can wheel off 24-second quarters all day.

14. Capo Bastone: Has potential, but must prove he can finish strongly going two turns.

15. Goldencents: He's fast, and he opened some eyes by rating in the Sham S.

16. Super Ninety Nine: Nice route debut for talented horse.

17. Forty Tales: Thought he was much the best in the Hutcheson. Might be a 7f horse, but worth a shot at two turns.

18. Treasury Bill: Really like the distance focus he showed in his impressive maiden win. Should like stretching out.

19. Purple Egg: Love his dynamic, but he missed a month of training because of sickness.

20. Demonic: Nice debut win, but for some reason he seems speed oriented to me. Will need to be a very fast learner.

Holy Bull Stakes

2013-01-24T19:53:00Z

We analyzed the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on That Handicapping Show this week, and despite the presence of several big name three-year-olds, including 2yo champ Shanghai Bobby, I picked Calder-based Itsmyluckyday.

If you didn't see his performance in the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day, it is worth reviewing. This Lawyer Ron colt runs with a low head carriage and the relaxed rhythm of a two-turn horse, yet he was tracking some very fast fractions in that one-turn mile race. He pulled away under a hand ride, stopping the timer in 1:34.39.

Despite the fact he is in form and boasts the field's best speed figure (on Beyer and BRIS), Itsmyluckyday should be a good price. He is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and could go even higher. I think Shanghai Bobby, Frac Daddy, Bern Identity, and Dewey Square all take more money than him. The morning lines at Gulfstream have been off lately, and to me it looks like they blew the lines on Frac Daddy (8-1) and Dewey Square (12-1). Both of those look too long.

For multi-race purposes, I could see myself singling Itsmyluckyday on one ticket and going 4-deep on another, where I'll look to press other opinions in the sequence.

Both for entertainment purposes and betting, Gulfstream has put together a great Saturday card, full of intriguing three-year-old races. In addition to the Holy Bull, Gulfstream has the Forward Gal Stakes (G2), which features a matchup of My Happy Face, Spring Venture, Kuai Katie, and for added entertainment throw in the undefeated Puerto Rican filly Fusaichiswonderful.

The card also includes a pair of NW1X allowance races for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, a strong NW2X/Optional claimer for older horses, and another allowance race for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on turf.

Time to get to work!

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Just saw that a bunch of people on Twitter are giving trainer Graham Motion grief for putting Joel Rosario on Animal Kingdom on Feb. 9 in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (replacing the injured Ramon Dominguez). I think Rosario will be great on Animal Kingdom. The matchup vs. Point of Entry is going to be a good one.

The herd dynamics and emotional conformation of Eblouissante

2013-01-18T15:26:00Z

With everyone talking about undefeated Eblouissante's second career victory, I thought it would be interesting to analyze her from the standpoint of herd dynamics and emotional conformation with help from my friend and cohort Kerry Thomas.

For those not familiar with Kerry, he is the founder of The Thomas Herding Technique (THT), author of Horse Profiling: The Secret to Motivating Equine Athletes, and a pioneering researcher in the fields of equine communication and herd dynamics, among other things. I am THT's director of equine services. Our company specializes in the study of herd motion (aka a horse race), the minds and emotions of horses, and behavioral genetics.

Kerry emphatically states Zenyatta is the highest level herd dynamic mare he has ever seen, on all levels. So when we talk about how Eblouissante lacks the vision and mental proficiency of her famous half-sister, keep in mind she has nearly impossible shoes to fill.

While no doubt there are some similarities between Zenyatta and Eblouissante, there are vast differences between them when viewed through the lens of emotional conformation herd dynamics. In fact, they are quite different horses.

When Eblouissante bounces out of the gate, she is in the individual dynamic zone. She is immediately looking for another horse to match rhythm with. This is in contrast to Zenyatta, who would break out of the gate in the group dynamic zone and immediately start sizing up the entire herd of motion.

After Eblouissante finds comfort with the nearest horse, she realizes she is in a race. A slight hesitation follows as she transitions to the group dynamic and begins to grasp the bigger picture.

But unlike Zenyatta, Eblouissante relies on the individual dynamic for most of her forward movement. Zenyatta only exerted her individual dynamic when she had to (when she encountered a talented and stubborn foe).

But most of the time, Zenyatta viewed the entire field as a unit to overcome. She could project herself to the lead horses, even when she was a dozen lengths or more behind. Eblouissante has thus far reached the desired destination in both of her starts, but she does it mentally by passing one horse at a time. She is a point-to-point mover.

Eblouissante has been outfitted with blinkers in both of her career starts. Blinkers restrict a horse's ability to take in the big picture. Throughout both of her races, Eblouissante spends a considerable amount of time trying to recognize what is behind her or to either side.

Her head movements in close proximity situations (when another horse is in her space but she cannot see it) indicate she is using her sense of feel to compensate for her restricted vision. She sometimes is confused in terms of what the other horses are doing, and where they are in her space. The result is a drag on Eblouissante's point-to-point releases and forward motion.

Watch Eblouissante's win on Thursday. It is good that she doesn't go backwards when she is unsure of a situation, but notice she idles at various points of the race because she is concerned with a horse next to her, or wonders if there is one coming from behind. Eblouissante has considerable physical ability, and she moves strongly into space when she can clearly see her targets or when she is confident where she is at. But note how she shows lateral motion almost everytime she passes a horse. It is to her credit as a physical athlete that she can overcome that inefficiency.

Now watch Zenyatta's amazing debut race. The distance of six furlongs is far too short, and she has never been in a race before, but notice how quickly she grasps the big picture and how seamless her transitions are. When the field turns for home, she is still in traffic. There are seven horses in front of her, but Zenyatta quickly zeroes in on the horse that is leading the front pack. She is unconcerned with the horses in her immediate proximity. That is the sign of a huge herd dynamic and a strong distance focus ability.

I get chills watching Zenyatta. She shows amazingly clear and smooth transitions from her very first race, and absolutely no lateral or compromised motion. She is in complete control of her environment, because she is interpreting everything perfectly. Instead of matching the rhythm of a horse in her immediate circle, she looked to match and surpass the rhythm of the horses way out in front. That allowed her to overcome huge deficits.

Eblouissante is far more affected by the rhythm of the horse that is closest to her. I asked Kerry why horses, in the wild or in a race, look to match rhythm of motion.

"Rhythm is a matter of herd movement, kind of like a flock of birds. Moving in unison with a partner makes you less likely to be an individual target for a predator. That's instinct, a naturally occurring pattern of motion in all horses. There is comfort to them in mimicking rhythm. High-level horses like Zenyatta can break free of the rhythm of the horses around them and move forward."

So what lies ahead for Eblouissante? Improvement, for one. Her delayed release points will matter less the further she runs, and Kerry thinks 1 1/16 miles is the low end of her stamina range. He profile is indicative of a sweet spot in the 9-10 furlong range.

Eblouissante is a talented athlete. She has probably run speed figures similar to what Zenyatta ran in her first two starts and has room for considerable improvement in her patterns of motion.

There is no reason she won't continue to improve. But as she faces higher dynamic horses, her inefficiencies could hurt her. Because she is an individual dynamic, point-to-point mover, she needs to be efficient in her target-and-release skills.

Eblouissante doesn't have the long-distance, forward focused vision of Zenyatta, or the amazing group dynamic. But few (if any) horses do. Zenyatta had an incredible way of seeing the entire race, knowing what every other horse was doing, and feeding off the herd.

Eblouissante is a graded stakes talent with a bright future, but she has some work to do.

Pasco Stakes

2013-01-10T11:45:00Z

This weekend's spotlight race in the 3yo division is the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

The 7f dirt race drew a field of 10, including the coupling from owner John Oxley and trainer Mark Casse of Dynamic Sky and Sky Commander. Dynamic Sky looks a lot like last year's Pasco winner Prospective, who also was an Oxley/Casse product.

Mindspell: He cleared the NW1X condition last time at Tampa, and the horse that finished third to him (City of Weston) came back to run 2nd in a slowly run renewal of the Spectacular Bid S. at Gulfstream Park. The rail is not a great place to be going 7f, but he has the speed to get away. Company lines show losses to Brave Dave and Capital City, horses that today's foe Purple Egg handled in the Inaugural S. Mindspell will need to improve to compete for the win here.

Falling Sky: 2-for-3 lifetime. Won his debut at Calder, regressed first time vs. winners when 4th in the Inaugural, then took a step forward when gamely winning a NW1X at Gulfstream. Third-place finisher from his last (Singanothersong) returned to win a NW1X at GP. Falling Sky was no match for Purple Egg in the Inaugural, but he could put up a better fight this time with more experience under his belt. Another that will need a good break from the inside.

Dynamic Sky: He's made four starts, all in stakes, and his only off-the-board finish came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That also was his only dirt race. I didn't think he ran very well in the BC, but that's a difficult race to evaluate due to the severe inside speed bias that plagued the 2012 Cup. Plus, he was off Lasix that day. Casse is fine off the layoff, and Dynamic Sky's company lines and speed figures make him a big threat to win. Luis Contreras, the only rider he has ever had, ships in for the mount. Contreras has had some steering issues with this talented but green colt, and note the addition of blinkers.

Lightning Stone: He's won two in a row on the turf by open lengths. The addition of blinkers have really helped him. His action looks a bit turfy, but he did run ok in the career debut on dirt. The biggest problem for him cutting back in distance is that he is going to be facing much quicker fractions than he is used to.

Purple Egg: He's undefeated, and it's impressive that he has won at three different tracks. Monmouth, PARX, Tampa ... he doesn't need to take his track with him. I loved his win in the Inaugural. He runs with a nice, relaxed stride and the way he gradually doles out his energy, the increase to 7f should be a positive for him. He missed the GP Derby reportedly with a fever, but fired a bullet here on Jan. 6. He should be stalking the leaders, looking for a seam turning for home.

Silver Day: Turns back off a 5th-place finish in a turf stake. He's going to find himself much further off the pace than he is accustomed to. Doesn't look fast enough.

O T B Bob: Is still a maiden and looks overmatched in here.

Divine Ambition: Won his debut by 8 lengths at Turfway and then was sold privately to Silverton Hills. New trainer Darrin Miller doesn't have great stats first-out with horses joining his barn. Beat nothing in the Turfway race but did it the right way. He was inside of the pacesetter when the rider pulled him back and steered him outside. He then drew off with a good-looking stride. The added distance should suit him, and this is a good post for his style. He'll need to jump way forward, but he is a candidate to do so in his second career start and first on dirt.

Hard to Name: Did not take to the turf in his last, but the pair of wins on the dirt at PARX were pretty good. Wide, stalk-and-pounce trip looks likely, and 7f on dirt is probably his game. Fast looking workout on Jan. 7, and I could see him bouncing back here.

Sky Commander: Coupled with Dynamic Sky. His best two races came on turf, and the coupling kills your value if you think he can run big going 7f on dirt.

Conclusion: Purple Egg is one of my favorite early 3yos and my top horse in this field. At 5-2 or above, he is a prime win bet for me. At 2-1 or below I would look to make a smaller play, keying him on top in the exotics. Divine Ambition interests me at 12-1 on the ML. He could get a nice pace pressing trip, and there is upside here. Hard to Name looks like he could get a piece, and if I play an exacta or trifecta wheel, he is one I will look to use. The Oxley/Casse coupling probably should be favored, but both have question marks for me. I'll bet that neither run their best here, and will confine them to underneath exotics action.

Leading Astray, Gary Stevens

2013-01-04T15:52:00Z

Newly turned four-year-olds facing older horses for the first time can be in for a rude awakening. With that in mind, I still like Leading Astray in the Marshua's River (G3) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.

Carded as the 10th race, going 1 1/16 miles on turf, the Marshua's River drew a field of 10 fillies and mares. Chokurei (Ire) and Heavenly Landing look like the older horses to beat, and I would consider using them in the exotics with Leading Astray.

Leading Astray has a 5-2-1 career record from eight starts and showed solid improvement throughout the year. She is coming off of a better than it looks 2nd-place finish in the Mrs. Revere S. (G2) at Churchill. She was in tight stalking a moderate pace and didn't get an open lane until the winner Centre Court was gone. Centre Court pressed that pace in the clear, and she is a solid Grade 2 horse, maybe more. Not only did Leading Astray show improved grit battling for space behind Centre Court, but she was trying in vain to run that one down too.

Leading Astray's final 5/16 in :29-2 was very good, and both that closing fraction and the final time match up well with what the three-year-old males did in the Commonwealth Turf (G3) earlier on the same card (won by Lea, King David 2nd). The jock switch from EE Perez to Jose Lezcano also is an upgrade. Leading Astray is probably my most confident play that I did not put on this weekend's Locksmith Smart Plays.

In other stakes action...the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita drew a short field of six. Goldencents has serious speed and can get a mile. He'll control the pace, with impressive maiden winner Manando stalking him. Manando finished fast & strong last time when allowed to set moderate fractions. He'll need to improve a little to run Goldencents down. I think the race is between those two.

We analyzed the newly rescheduled Jerome Stakes (G2) on That Handicapping Show this week. I meant to take additional shots at the new Kentucky Derby qualifying system, which looks even more poorly devised by the day. (The Grade 2, two-turn dirt race in New York, for newly turned 3yos, is not worth any points)

I picked Long River, a well-bred A.P. Indy colt with a classic distance profile. He's probably going to be 2-1 or 5-2. This probably isn't the best betting race, but it is worth watching for Ky Derby implications and entertainment.

Gary Stevens Returns

Like most racing fans, I was glad to hear Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens is attempting a comeback. Stevens is a great competitor and horseman.

It has seemed to me for a couple years now that we are in between eras in terms of the great jockeys. I'd love to see Stevens back in top form, riding in graded stakes.

Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

2012-12-20T16:39:00Z

This will be the first of six (monthly) editions of my top 20 contenders for the 2013 Kentucky Derby.

Future lists will be ordered/numbered. It's too early to split hairs. These horses need to do a lot of developing between now and May 4, 2013.

Bold Dance (c by Pulpit--Quiet Dance, by Quiet American) This half-brother to Horse of the Year Saint Liam took a nice step forward when sent two turns on the turf in his second career start. He showed he could handle traffic with a swift inside-out move that day, and drew off late to win by 4 lengths. Excited to see where he lands next.

Capo Bastone (c by Street Boss--Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) was my play in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and I'm still not sure what to make of his 3rd-place showing. On one hand, there was a strong inside speed bias, and Capo was wide and way back, a running style that failed miserably at this year's Breeders' Cup. Also, he had traffic at the top of the lane and reportedly bled without Lasix. BUT, he got a closer-friendly race shape (Very fast eary, very slow late) and couldn't get by tired horses.

Delhomme (c by Dixie Union--Art Show, by Out of Place) has a long stride, a fast cruising speed, and has improved every race. Although he finished third in the Remsen (G2), I wouldn't downgrade him much, as that was his first time going two turns, and the Remsen was one of the fastest two-year-old route races of the year.

Dewey Square (c by Bernardini--Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) His lone defeat (3rd in theG2 Kentucky Jockey Club S.) was a pretty strong effort. He was kept back and wide off a slow pace, but showed good late energy behind Uncaptured and Frac Daddy. This is a nice looking, well-bred colt who moves beautifully and has an excllent foundation, including two two-turn races at Churchill.

Flashback (c by Tapit--Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) broke his maiden in fast time going 7f in his debut. He showed a nice, steady energy distribution that suggests he will like two turn races. Full brother to Grade 1 winner Zazu.

Fortify (c by Distorted Humor--Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) is well-bred for the Derby distance and has an excellent 2yo foundation (2nd in G2 7f Hopeful, 3rd in G1 8f Champagne, and 4th in 8.5f G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He should improve with distance, but he also needs to find a little more fire. His individual dynamic has looked suspect at times.

Frac Daddy (c by Scat Daddy--Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) had an inexperience disadvantage and got the wider trip when finishing second to Uncaptured by a neck in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2). That was only his third career start. Pedigree doesn't scream 10f, but there is talent and upside here.

Little Distorted (c by Distorted Humor--Asbeautifulasyou (Ire), by A.P. Indy) pressed a fast pace and rebroke in the lane of his debut, earning a very big speed figure while defeating a highly-regarded horse from the Pletcher barn (Revolutionary). We need to see if he can build on the ultra-fast debut.

Long River (c by A.P. Indy--Round Pond, by Awesome Again) finished second, beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Delhomme (subsequent 3rd in the G2 Remsen) in his second career start, then came back to break his maiden impressively going one mile and 70 yards on the Aqueduct inner in his third start. Long River is improving, and he has the movement and mentality of a classic distance horse.

Noble Tune (c by Unbridled's Song--Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) All three of his career starts have come on turf, but I am listing him because I think Noble Tune is one of the most talented two-year-old colts in America. His second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was excellent. He is fast and he handles herd chaos beautifully. Pedigree and smooth action bode well for him to try new surfaces.

Normandy Invasion (c by Tapit--Boston Lady, by Boton Harbor) It sure looked like he was a winner the way he cruised up on the far turn in the Remsen (G2), but Overanalyze re-rallied inside of him. Still a little green, but this one has ability and a good foundation to build on. Ran his final 3f in the Remsen in :36-1, so he wasn't exactly hanging.

Overanalyze (c by Dixie Union--Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Where did that between-horses re-rally in the Remsen (G2) come from? He improved a ton that day. Great foundation has been laid, with five starts at two, including the very fast 9f win in the Remsen.

Palace Malice (c by Curlin--Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) The Curlin babies already have shown they have some of their father's grit. There is some question how fast they are as a group, but not this guy. He ran a pair of rapido maiden heats at Saratoga-- losing to Carried Interest (returned to finish 2nd in the G2 Futurity), then beating subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Hightail back to 3rd (by 4 1/2 lengths) in his maiden win. If he improves with distance and age like his father did, Palace Malice is a Triple Crown player.

Power Broker (c by Pulpit--Shop Again, by Wild Again) looked great winning the Frontrunner S. (G1) first time on dirt, but he was a non-factor when he got a wide trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's a player if he trains forward at age three.

Purple Egg (g by Lion Heart--Luminous Prize, by Prized) is undefeated in three starts, all sprinting, but I love the way he methodically swallows his opponents and draws off late. He has a lot to prove distance and class-wise, but I really like his dynamic.

Shanghai Bobby (c by Harlan's Holiday--Steelin, by Orientate) The undefeated 2yo champion has speed, a big presence, and a ton of guts. He absolutely looked beaten in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but he re-rallied. It was impressive regardless of the inside speed bias that helped him. Like many, he is a question mark at 10f, but he is the champ until someone beats him.

Super Ninety Nine (c by Pulpit--Exogenetic, by Unbridled's Song) looked like a horse with a lot of class in his better-than-it-looks-on-paper debut win. Trainer Bob Baffert entered him in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, but '99 got hurt in his stall and was withdrawn. Finished second to a fast stablemate over a speed-favoring strip in the Hollywood Prevue (G3). Classy, but there are distance questions.

Tulira Castle (c by War Pass--Tulira, by General Assembly) had some sneaky good form on the polytrack at Arlington Park and Keeneland, then he showed he can handle dirt when winning a NW1x going a mile at Gulfstream. He spurted away from that field after pressing a solid pace from between horses. He is another who will have to outrun his pedigree distancewise, but I like his style.

Uncaptured (c by Lion Heart--Captivating, by Arch) failed his intial two-turn test up north in the Grey Stakes (Can-G3), but he got a tough trip that day. He's earned his way back onto most people's Derby rankings with a pair of wins on the dirt at Churchill, including a (relatively slow) pace-pressing neck victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Not yet sold on him going 10f, but he is a major talent.

Violence (c by Medgalia d'Oro--Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Improved to 3-for-3 when he shipped West, took a ton of money, and dealt the SoCal colts a rare loss on their home turf in the CashCall Futurity (G1). This gangly looking colt has classic distance potential and should still have upside.

Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

2012-12-12T18:19:00Z

Lady Banks, a two-year-old filly who ran an excellent second in her debut at Aqueduct on Novembr 23, is back in Friday in the 3rd race at Aqueduct.

She is listed as the 9-5 second choice on the morning line. While we won't bet getting 10-1 on her again (nor $10 to place), we also have more information now.

The debut play was based entirely on Lady Banks' emotional conformation report from when she sold as a yearling in 2011. At the sale she showed the ingredients of a high herd dynamic: a very strong presence and elite communication skills.

Lady Banks ran very good in the debut. She broke slowly from the rail, but quickly got into the race and handled a number of traffic scenarios like a pro.

Turning for home she was out wide in 5th place, stalking the eventual winner Live Lively, but Eddie Castro redirected Lady Banks inside. Momentarily blocked, Lady Banks split horses and was trying to rally inside the winner late.

If she moves forward from that experience, and I think that's quite likely, Lady Banks will be very tough to beat at the maiden level.

Lady Banks Debut Race (Rail)

Stable Mail Adds: I added four horses to my stable mail last weekend.

Flashback: 12-8-12 BHP R7 Maiden Two-year-old Tapit colt was really impressive winning first out for Bob Baffert going seven furlongs on the cushion track. This full brother to Grade 1 winner Zazu has a big group dynamic and a nice, steady energy distribution that makes me think he can go at least 8.5f. As good as Tapit is, I can't recall ever liking any of his colts for the Derby distance, but this one looks interesting. DRF reports he got a 93 Beyer speed figure.

Flashback debut (#9, gray)

Pure Fun: 12-8-12 BHP R9 Hollywood Starlet (G1) Two-year-old Pure Prize filly lagged far back and then unleashed an explosive move on the turn. Her final 5/16 in :30-2 was excellent, and her final time was just 1 1/2 lengths slower than older fillies and mares ran in the Grade 2 Bayakoa Stakes earlier on the card. This was a super performance on the ship out West, and Pure Fun stamped herself as a major contender for the 2013 Kentucky Oaks.

Starlet (#1)

Klisz: 12-8-12 BHP R8 Starter Allowance $40,000 Three-year-old Smarty Jones gelding made it 2-for-2 in his career with an eye-catching stretch move in a starter allowance race going 6f on turf. Klisz had to wait, split horses and exploded to win off by 4 lengths. With wins at maiden claiming $30,000 at Keeneland and now this $40,000 starter allowance, Klisz still could look a little cheap on paper, but there is solid talent here.

(No free replay available without a sign-in)

Mountain Eagle: 12-8-12 GP R2 Maiden Two-year-old Birdstone gelding took a big step forward here going second time out and stretching out to a one-turn mile. His final time of 1:35.95 was two lengths faster than a NW1 later on the card, and this one is still learning. Should like two turns and more distance.

Mountain Eagle (#6)

Executiveprivilege returns

2012-12-07T15:44:00Z

I think Executiveprivilege is the best two-year-old flly in America, but when we taped this week's edition of That Handicapping Show, I picked against her in the Hollywood Starlet (G1) for two reasons: her odds will be low (less than even money probably) and I don't know where this filly's head is at.

Executiveprivilege sustained her first loss in six tries when she drifted out badly in the stretch run of the Breeders' Cup and failed to run down Beholder (who ran a fast race and had the benefit of a strong inside speed bias).

In an effort to get Executiveprivilege's mind focused on things like forward motion and winning races, Bob Baffert will outfit her with blinkers on Saturday and has changed riders from Rafael Bejarano, who roder her in all six career starts, to Mike Smith.

Horses as good as Executiveprivilege usually don't need blinkers. This is a high-level filly that runs with a magnificent presence and focus. However, she tipped off the Breeders' Cup defeat in her final two workouts before the Cup. In one workout, Executiveprivilege failed to gat by her workmate (the talented colt Super Ninety Nine). In the other she outworked a much lesser horse in relatively slow time. They received mostly bad reviews from the California clockers.

When I want to figure out what is going on inside a horse's head, I consult Kerry Thomas, my boss at the Thomas Herding Technique, and an expert on equine communication. When Kerry watched the works, he said he didn't think there was anything wrong with Executiveprivilege physically, but he said something interesting.

"She is increasingly making her own decisions," Kerry said. "She is not listening to the rider."

That scenario played out in the Juevnile Fillies as Executiveprivilege drifted outward, against the urging of Bejarano, who had a terrible Breeders' Cup weekend. The switch to Mike Smith is a big wildcard, as he can give you a Hall of Fame ride one race and a puzzling one the next.

As for the blinkers, Kerry is anti in most cases. He believes they are a band-aid that attempts to cover up the underlying issue by limiting a horse's senses, instead of addressing it through training.

I have seen blinkers improve horses too many times to condemn them unequivically, but I have to admit the more I learn about herd dynamics and the horse's mind, the more I realize blinkers are over-used here in the U.S.

Executiveprivilege has worked four times since the Breeders' Cup. I haven't seen any of those works, but hopefully we will see her best this weekend. Then the debate over champion two-year-old filly can begin. I would love to see her train on at three.

---

As for betting, I really had to scour the nation to find my Locksmith Smart Plays this weekend. Many of my plays are based on talent evaluations of young horses, so I play a lot of maidens and NW1's. December is not a pretty time for those races.

Taking a shot at the NHC

2012-11-30T16:19:00Z

I have played in maybe a half dozen handicapping contests in my life, but this weekend I am going to take a shot in the Keeneland NHC qualifier.

Entry fee is $150, plus $50 to join the NHC tour (which makes me eligible for the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Contest in Las Vegas if I can finish in the top three.) I am going to split an entry with the Blood-Horse's Frank Angst, a longtime friend and handicapper.

Besides Vegas fever, the tipping point for me to enter this contest is the format. Contestants get to make 15 $2 win/place plays of their choice on the Saturday cards from Gulfstream, Tampa, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds (races 1-9), and Turfway.

I prefer this format to one that uses mandatory races for two reasons: 1)It makes/allows horseplayers to pick their spots. 2)If you funnel 300 picks into a mandatory race, every inconceivable longshot will be covered, and it turns into a luck fest if the big prices come in.

I have heard some tournament players say they don't play anything under 5-1, which is an interesting concept that partly goes against my value oriented approach. A 3-1 shot can be huge value, and it's the bottom line at the end of the day that matters. I look forward to seeing what tournament play can teach me about my cash wagering.

15 bullets to fire. All bets are $2 W/P:

GP Race 1: 10 Channell the Green 11-1

Result: Off the board. Prado takes back, no chance. Speed and chalk dominates as a pair of 5-2 shots run 1-2. Divine Luck wins for Shug with first-time blinkers.

GP Race 2: 5 Bold Dance 8-1

Result: Winner (Was a Lockmsith Smart Plays key horse). $26.20. We're on the board.

AQ Race 4: 6 Switchboard 17-1

Result: Stumbled start, off...

GP Race 4: 9 Cover Price 7-2

Result: Off

FG Race 2: 4 Kennessy 15-1

Result: Off

GP Race 5: 9 Awesome Mich 11-1

Result: Off

Tampa Race 6: 1 Ingrid Louisiana 7-1

Result: Off

Gulfstream Race 6: Off the Jak 7-1

Result: 2nd $7.60. Hopefully tht ends our cold streak.

Tampa RAce 7: Over the Counter 11-1

Result: Off. It's bomber time. 6 plays left.

Gulfstream 7: 11 Easy Ending 9-1

Result: Off

Fairg Grounds Race 5: Quite Explosive 7-1

Result: 3rd

Tampa Bay Race 8: Miss Scout 15-1

Result: Off

Gulfstream Race 8: Falbala 14-1

Result: Off

Just taking wild price shots here at the end. We are pretty much done...

Finishing at FG R7 with 1 Bacardi Cat Run at 17-1.

Post-Thanksgiving handicapping

2012-11-23T00:21:00Z

Greetings from St. Petersburg, Florida, where after one huge meal and two entertaining NFL games, I am ready to tackle the weekend cards.

Aqueduct Race 7, Friday

Maiden 2yo fillies 5.5f dirt

My eyes will be on first-time starter 1 Lady Banks. This Successfil Appeal filly made a positive impression as a yearling, when I saw her at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July selected yearling sale. She showed some class and presence, and despite her speedy pedigree, will probably want more ground than this.

Churchill Downs Race 1, Saturday

Allowance NW1X 2yo fillies 6f dirt

1 Don't Tell Veda looked very good when trying dirt in her second career start. She stalked the lead pack, angled inside in the stretch, then back outside a rival and drew off by almost 5 lengths. She made that move look easy, showing signs of a strong dynamic. She should move forward off that run, and I would expect her to to at least hit the board here vs. winners.

Churchill Downs Race 2, Saturday

Allowance NW1X 2 yo fillies 1 mile dirt

1 Dancinginthecircle is a legitimate favorite here after being under restraint in traffic in a NW1 here on October 28, then rallying for second, beaten just a neck. Jock switch from Julien Leparoux to TJ Thompson and I wouldn't be surprised to see this filly break running from the rail, as there isn't a ton of speed in here. I'll be interested to see how 2 Lady Luck (15-1 ML?) runs. She is by Curlin, and may appreciate getting back on dirt after making a wide move and hanging in a NW1 on the Keeneland polytrack. I liked her debut on the dirt at Ellis. 4 Assets of War was on my short list at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale for both her physical and mental makeup. She came out running and scored at 11-1 in her career debut. I think she'll like the added distance here and could move forward. The filly she ran down (Irish Lute) returned to win at the MSW level at Churchill.

Aqueduct Race 8, Saturday

Cigar Mile (G1) One Mile Dirt

The filly Groupie Doll has been tabbed at the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, and she looks like the horse to beat despite taking on males. She is the most consistent horse in the race, and if she can run back to her Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint or the Humana Distaff Handicap (G1), she should win this race. I am a huge fan of Groupie Doll, but post-Breeders' Cup bounces are common, and Groupie Doll delivered a huge effort against an inside speed bias. She could be vulnerable here.

Speaking of bias, Stay Thirsty ran the race of his life when losing the Jockey Club Gold Cup to Flat Out by a head last time, but he had the bias in his favor. I wouldn't expect him to run back to that race.

Hymn Book, who finished second in this race last year, skipped the Breeders' Cup and has worked three times since a sharp stakes score at Belmont on October 19. I could play him at his 6-1 morning line. Have a feeling I'm either betting him or I am just watching and rooting for Groupie Doll.

New Sire Analysis: Curlin

2012-11-14T17:32:00Z

Evaluating young sires is one of my favorite studies, both for my bloodstock work with Thomas Herding Technique (THT) and my handicapping.

Recognizing trends early is a path to value. The earlier you make an accurate read, the better. As evidence mounts, the public gradually catches on.

One of this year's more interesting first-crop sires is Curlin. A two-time Horse of the Year, Curlin won 11 of 16 starts, including the Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic, and Dubai World Cup.

All of Curlin's wins came on dirt. He finished second to Breeders' Cup Turf winner Red Rocks (Ire) in his only grass race - the 1 3/8-mile Man O'War Stakes - and ahead of another Breeders' Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now and subsequent multiple Grade 1 turf winner Grand Couturier (GB). It was a very good performance considering it was his first turf start and only his second start back from a two-race campaign in Dubai.

In his only start on a synthetic track, Curling finished 4th behind Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator, and Tiago in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Classic. It was the final race of his career and clearly below his best form. How much Santa Anita's synthetic track contributed to his off effort is debatable. Many dirt horses struggled on that surface, but Curlin also may have been slowing down in the latter half of his ambitious four-year-old campaign.

Curlin was so talented and gritty he probably could have been trained to run on anything, but his stride, tracking speed and powerful, sustained pace played out best on dirt. He won at distances from 7 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. In addition to a very respectable run at 1 3/8 miles on turf, Curlin also ran admirably at 1 1/2 miles when he lost a head decision to the great filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes. Curlin (who was carrying five more pounds than the filly) ran his final quarter mile in the Belmont in about 23-4, one of the fastest in recent history.

When evaluating his progeny, keep in mind that Curlin won his debut in February of his three-year-old season. His peak performances came midway through his three-year-old year through the first half of his four-year-old campaign. Curlin's progeny should not be expected to show their best form at age two.

As of today, Curlin has 12 winners from 37 two-year-old starters. Two of those winners came in Russia.

Here are my notes on his 10 two-year-old winners from America and England:

Savanna La Mar: Filly broke her maiden going 7 furlongs on the turf at Chester. She also finished second in a stake at Sandown and 4th in a Group 3 at Newmarket.

Palace Malice: Probably Curlin's highest regarded colt, Palace Malice ran a pair of quick races last summer in New York. In his debut he finished second to Carried Interest, who came back to finish second in the G2 Futurity Stakes. When Palace Malice broke his maiden in his second start, he beat subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Hightail back to third. No published works since the win, and I read that sore shins ended Palace Malice's juvenile campaign. He is a talented, gritty colt with a potential classic distance aptitude.

Watrugonnadorosie: Broke her maiden in her second career start going 1 1/16 miles over a sloppy sealed surface at Belmont. Note that Curlin was 2-for-2 in the slop, including his powerful 4 1/2-length win in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic at Monmouth.

Liberated: Debuted with a nice run going 6 1/2 furlongs in the mud at Ellis Park, then third at the same distance in a strong maiden race on Keeneland's Polytrack. I thought it looked like she didn't relish the Poly that day, although perhaps she just ran into a tough field (2nd-place finisher Flashy Gray came back to win by 10 at Churchill) Switched back to dirt and stretched out to a mile, Liberated broke her maiden nicely at Churchill Downs in her third start.

Flash Forward: Following a pair of poor performances on the turf in New York, they dropped her in for a $50,000 tag and she responded with a gutsy 3/4-length win going 7 furlongs in the slop.

Moulin de Mougin: Finished 8th in her debut on Del Mar's Polytrack, then broke her maiden going 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf. She then faced males when finishing 5th (of 10) in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview. I am interested to see what she can do on dirt and/or going longer.

Lady of Luck: Won her debut at Ellis Park going 5 ½ furlongs on dirt despite looking like a route horse. Under a hustling ride from the start, she settled in between horses, then produced a strong, sustained rally to win going away by 2 ½ lengths. In her second start she ran third in a nW1X going 1 1/16 miles on Keeneland's Polytrack. This was the second time at the Keeneland meet I thought a Curlin struggled a bit with the synthetic surface. Lady of Luck has some quality and she could be a bet next time on dirt.

Evolutionary: Finished a troubled, distant third sprinting 5f on Arlington's Polytrack in her debut. She came back and won going 6f on the dirt at Remington Park.

Stopshoppingdebbie: Broke her maiden by 7 lengths in her debut at Emerald Downs. Not sure if she beat anything, but she looked great. Although she won here going 5 1/2 furlongs, she didn't look like a sprinter to me. Looked like she can handle much more distance. I wouldn't be surprised if she got privately purchased off this impressive debut.

Curlamorous: Broke her maiden in her debut for a $20,000 tag at Delaware Park, then came back to run second by a nose for claiming $25,000. She was just a $14,000 purchase at the two-year-old sales, so maybe she has some issues, but she at least looks like a runner at her level, and she hasn't stretched out yet.

Conclusions: It is early, and Curlin is still developing as a sire, but several trends that mirror his profile as a racehorse already are apparent.

Curlin's progeny are winless in eight starts on synthetic surfaces. They have finished second once and third four times. There isn't enough data to stamp Curlin a negtaive influence on synthetic (or turf), but at this time I will stick with his default profile of being best on dirt.

Distance-wise, the Curlins already have won from 5 1/2 furlongs up to 1 1/16 miles. I will not hesitate to bet them going up in distance, and many times a little extra ground could be to their benefit. Curlin won with grit and sustained speed, and that profile is very apparent in his first crop. Curlin has classic distance potential as a sire.

I am viewing Curlin as a move-up sire in the slop, particularly on sloppy sealed tracks.

Considering that Curlin did not race at age two, there is a very good chance we haven't seen anything close to the best of his progeny. They should improve at age three.

Despite beginning his career with an exorbitant stud fee and the fanfare befitting of a two-time Horse of the Year, expectations have tempered from the standpoints of bloodstock and betting. Curlin's advertised stud fee will be down to $25,000 in 2013, and his yearling average dropped from $136,000 in 2011 to $78,000 in 2012. From a wagering standpoint, I don't sense people are betting his progeny on his name alone. At a minimum, Curlin will be a sire of solid rachorses. He may be approaching underrated territory.

I will close with Curlin's emotional conformation profile, which my boss at THT Kerry Thomas OK'd me to share here. For those unfamiliar with THT, think of this profile as a measurement of class, presence, temperament, and distance aptitude. Note that we have "recommended for breeding" less than 10% of the sires we have inspected.

Curlin: A very strong, well-rounded horse. Great stimulus interpretation. Reads intentions very well. Distance focus is very strong. He is in control of everything around him. Communicates with his environment very well. Slightly hotter females would be ok with him. He could stretch out more precocious mares. A mid-range focus female would be safe for him. He has a lot of overriding qualities that could pepper/strengthen his mares. Recommended for breeding.

Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

2012-10-31T15:45:00Z

I admit it is dangerous and almost counterproductive to form opinions on a race weeks or months in advance, but I make two exceptions to that rule -- the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup.

The leadup to the Derby is horse racing's greatest journey. The most exciting two minutes in sports is preceded by a minimum two months buildup. As soon as the two-year-old colts hit the finish line in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Derby talk is fair game in my book.

I remember sitting on the media bus, mired in traffic after last year's Derby, debating with clocker Bruno de Julio about the ground loss Union Rags had suffered in the Juvenile and who was the better horse - Union Rags or Hansen.

I rarely form Breeders' Cup opinions that far in advance, but when I saw Ron the Greek win the Santa Anita Handicap back on March 3, the wheels started turning. This year's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) will be run at the same track and distance as the Big 'Cap. Knowing how powerful hometrack advantage can be -- especially in Southern California -- a win over the strip is huge for an East Coast shipper like Ron the Greek.

But even more importantly, Ron the Greek showed me he was a true 10-furlong horse. The more time he spends in motion, the stronger he gets. That is the kind of horse I want to bet going the American classic distance.

It looks to me that there is plenty of speed in this year's Classic. Fort Larned, Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man, and To Honor and Serve all have forward energy profiles and should ensure an honest pace. And while those horses are hoping to run 10f as well as they run 9f, I don't see any of them improving going longer, as Ron the Greek will. If the public evaluates the Classic contenders largely on their 9f form, that should create some value.

Before his 6th-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Ron the Greek had four wins and four seconds in his last eight starts (since Bill Mott took over his training). I am going to forgive his 'off' race at Belmont and blame it on a very quirky surface that was flattering inside speed. He is my value play at 5-1 or more.

Lasix-off not an issue for Fortify

2012-10-18T15:18:00Z

Godolphin Racing's Fortify, who has raced without Lasix in all three of his career starts, could be the only horse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) who won't be racing "Lasix off" on championship day.

The Breeders' Cup will not allow any two-year-olds to race on the anti-bleeding medication at this year's event, which will take place November 2-3 at Santa Anita. Of the horses I know to be pointing to the Juvenile, Fortify is the only one who has never raced on Lasix.

It's tough to say how handicappers should factor Lasix into their betting. It used to be that a horse had to bleed to receive Lasix, and Lasix off or on could have a powerful effect on performance. But use of the drug has become so prevalent in America that many horses that do not bleed are now administered Lasix everytime they run, either preventively or for other benefits.

Some horses will do fine in the Breeders' Cup without Lasix, but some bleeders also could emerge. Dramatic form reversals are possible.

The Breeders' Cup is making a statement in favor of medication reform in America, the most permissive major racing country in the world when it comes to raceday drugs. But if a horse bleeds badly at the Breeders' Cup, it could provide fodder for those who say the Lasix ban is misguided -- that it is cruel not to allow bleeders to run on Lasix.

Last year, Fortify's trainer Kiaran McLaughlin asked his owners permission to run their two-year-olds without Lasix unless they actually bled.

"We did our own little study," McLaughlin said. "Because of what is likely to happen -- more and more races are going to be run without Lasix -- I thought it would be a good idea to run them without it, and see what's going on. The most significant thing we discovered is that not many of our horses bled."

This year, Fortify's owners Godolphin Racing signed a pledge to not use Lasix on their two-year-olds.

"Both Darley/Godolphin and Shadwell signed the no-Lasix agreement," McLaughlin said. "We've had one bleeder out of all the horses we've run without Lasix this year. Fortify has not needed it. Even if I was operating on my system from last year, Fortify wouldn't have had Lasix yet. He has scoped clean every time."

Godolphin Racing's Travers' Stakes (G1) winner Alpha, who will race in the Breeders' Cap Classic this year, raced without Lasix during his two-year-old campaign in 2011. Alpha ran well twice -- winning his debut by six lengths, then second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) -- but he finished 11th , beaten 19 lengths in the Breeders' Cup. McLAughlin said Alpha "did bleed a little" in the Breeders' Cup. Alpha has raced on Lasix throughout his three-year-old campaign.

McLaughlin said Fortify is ready for the Breeders' Cup and training well.

"He's a really nice horse, and everything is going well. Obviously Shanghai Bobby has been impressive, but Fortify has been running well, and I hope he keeps improving through his two-year-old season and on to three," McLaughlin said. "Maybe we’re a step ahead on the Lasix issue. We’ll see. It makes me sleep a little better knowing we haven't used Lasix on Fortify and no [2yo] can use it at the Breeders' Cup this year. We don’t have that question mark."

They're off in the Hawthorne Derby

2012-10-11T19:31:00Z

The $300,000 Hawthorne Derby (G3) on Saturday drew a field of 12, plus two also-eligibles to the south side of Chicago.

Carded as Hawthorne's 8th race, post time is 6:40 ET.

1 Film Shot is out of the great turf mare Film Maker. Grade 3-placed, he doesn't quite have his dam's class...He came through on the inside in his latest but got run down by unheralded Miami Cat, who came back and finished 9th, beaten 20 lengths behind Optimizer in the Grade 3 Kent Stakes at Delaware. New distance and tricky post for a horse who likes to be forwardly placed. Not buying him at 6-1 on the morning line.

2 Finale was a very good two-year-old. He won the Summer Stakes (G3) at Woodbine and was bet to 4-to-1 favoritism in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. A wide post really hurt his chances that day at Churchill, but he ran prety well to finish 7th, beaten 4 lengths. He returned from an 8-month layoff in the Equalize Stakes at Saratoga and was checked hard on the first turn and came home last of 10. Three fast works since and he stretches out to 9 furlongs. Looking to rebound and recapture his 2yo form.

3 All Stormy beat older horses when winning a NW2 at Arlington in his last. His second to Cozetti in the American Derby (G3) was pretty good, but the winner won despite trouble. He's knocking on the door of 3yo graded stakes material. Foresee an inside stalking trip.

4 All Squared Away won the Lexington Stakes (G3) on polytrack earlier this year and tried turf out at Del Mar in his last two. He was uncharacteristicaly far back in the Del Mar Derby (G2) and did well to get seventh, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths. The winner went wire to wire on a course that favors speed types. All Squared Away got the 9f no problem, and he's clearly a win contender here on the class drop, but he must adapt to a very different type of course (Hawthorne is definitely not a SoCal pool table). Also, he carries high weight of 122, spotting most of these 6-8 pounds. That is a significant weight disadvantage.

5 Francois has been a great $7,500 claim. He's won three of four, and really turned into a runner. His speed figures vs. lesser fit here, and he showed he likes turf last time. He'll need to relax and finish strongly while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles on the class rise. That's a lot of new variables.

6 Two Months Rent most recently finished third, beaten six lengths by Optimizer, in the Kent (G3). Looks like he has things turned around after the disastrous saddle-slipping incident in the Va Derby (G2). Could maybe see him rallying for a small piece here with the right trip.

7 Aldous Snow has reacted favorably to blinkers, with three consecutive sharp runs on the turf. He beat a good field of older horses in the NW1 three back at Woodbine. The third-place finisher Miami Deco retruned to win a NW2x allowance race at Keeneland, and the 4th-place runner won a NW1x allowance at Woodbine. Aldous finished second to the filly Irish Mission in the 1 1/2-mile Breeders Stakes, a Canadian-bred classic going 1 1/2 miles. His late run going a mile last time was strong, as he was the only horse closing any ground, and that's not always easy to do out in the middle of that big Woodbine oval. I think he fits at the Grade 3 level here against 3yos, but will need some pace up front.

8 Control Tower has blossomed since arriving at Arlington this summer. His three wins vs. much cheaper were of the tour de force variety. There is a some serious horse power here. He has good stalking speed and a strong late move. Love how he looked on video in his last three races (regardless of surface, he even looked great on the poly). Interesting on the class rise, and note his most recent speed figure fits here.

9 North of Never hadn't run a bad one until the 6th-place finish at Canterbury, and he went to the sidelines afterward. That was a pretty weak field he beat in the NW1 at Churchill. His best effort might be able to land a minor share.

10 Lea shows a nice progression, having run a wide 2nd in his career debut at Churchill Downs, then taking a MSW and NW1x at Saratoga, each race a litle faster than the one before. He beat older horses last time and this steady mover was gradually pulling away in the stretch. He has tactical speed and is proven at the distance. Joel Rosario off is not a good angle, but as long as Rosie gets him out of the gate, Lea should get a decent trip stalking one of the inside trio (posts 1-2-3 all are going to want to break fairly well).

11 Pleasant Closing has never been on turf and is listed at 50-1 on the morning line. He has some early speed and could inject a little pace into the race, but this doesn't look like a very logical spot for him. Not sure if he is a sprinter or a router. He's a wildcard.

12 Quick Wit won the off-the-turf Hall of Fame S. (G2) in the slop at Saratoga. He has a good late move, but he was too far back in the American Derby (G3) and the Saranac S. (G3). Tricky post, but he does land the best local turf rider Francisco Torres. Will need to work out a trip from out here, and the co-highweight impost of 122 is an issue.

13AE SCRATCHED XXX The Pizza Man somewhat surprisingly lands on the also-eligible lost, because four of his five wins came in statebred company. Still, I think he would rightfully take some money if he draws in, as his victory over older horses in the llinois-bred restricted Tex' Zing Stakes was pretty good. The horse he beat by a nose last time (Tazz) came back and finished third, beaten 3/4 of a length, in the open co. $100,000 Carey Memorial Stakes. The Pizza Man disappointed when he finished 5th in the American Derby (G3), but he has moved forward since then. Could see him closing for a piece if he draws in.

14 AE Defiant Flyer SCRATCHED XXX would be in tough he draws in. Both of his career wins came on dirt in maiden claiming company and in a Texas-bred stake.

Track/Weather Report: Current Saturday Forecast for Stickney, Illinois is for a high of 69 with a chance of severe thunderstorms.

Hawthorne turf was fast and firm Thursday. No rain in the forecast Friday.

Pete's Pick: Taking the big price on All Stormy. W/P/S

Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

2012-10-04T00:22:00Z

Keeneland Fall, one of the most challenging and entertaining meets of the year, opens Friday here in Lexington. Keeneland will host nine graded stakes from Friday through Sunday, with many of them having implications for the Breeders' Cup.

This week's race of the week will be the Breeders' Futurity (G1), for two-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the polytrack. Carded as Saturday's 8th race, it is the third leg of a 50-cent pick-5 wager that also includes the Thoroughbred Club of Amercia S. (G2), the First Lady (G1), and the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), and ends with a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 on the polytrack.

Speaking of the Polytrack, the main track surface at Keeneland is a huge handicapping variable. Unless a horse is proven over the surface, I recommend demanding extra value. Favorites have performed extremely poorly in graded stakes on the polytrack since it was installed in 2006.

Here is my take on the Breeders' Futurity:

1 Joha likes Polytrack with a combined career record of 3-1-1-1 sprinting over the synthetic surfaces here at Keeneland and at Woodbine. He was alone on the lead stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Saratoga in the With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and he held until the final yards, when Balance the Books ran him down rather impressively. Joha is likely to be sent from this rail post. Forwardly placed horses do well on this track layout (very short stretch), but unless there is a speed bias on Saturday, I won't be using him on top.

2 Are You Kidding Me broke his maiden impressively in his third career start at Woodbine, looking like a horse who would love more ground. His next two were on turf. He stepped up to the allowance ranks and beat a good filly (Nancy O, who ran third in the G2 Natalama), then was a closing second in the Summer Stakes (G2). He got shuffled back in that race but still came with a steady rally on the yielding turf. I view him as a win threat, but he'll need to keep in touch with the leaders and work out a trip from the inside.

3 He's So Fine gets first-time Lasix after running a non-descript 5th in the With Anticipation. Previously he picked up the pieces behind a pace duel to finish a distant second in the Saratoga Special (G2). Not convinced he fits here.

4 Java's War looked great breaking his maiden at Ellis Park, and the horse that finished third to him (Sonofasamurai) came back to win impressively at Saratoga. He was last early in the Sunday Silence Stakes at Louisiana Downs but worked his way through traffic like a men among boys. He delivered a powerful late burst and wore down stakes winner Brown Almighty to get the win. Some questions about the quality of field he beat, but no question about the style in which he did it. His final time was more than a second faster than 2yo fillies ran in the sister race on same card. Java has some natural speed to stalk the pace in here, and I think he's a win threat making his first start on the Poly.

5 Tizracer earned the top last-race Beyer speed figure with his 10+length win breaking his maiden at Belmont. He was alone on the lead and steadily drew away in that small field. Progeny of Tiznows are gallopers, and they often like synthetic tracks. He only beat four horses in the maiden win, and he'll face 13 rivals here. Mixed feelings.

6 Pataky Kid broke his maiden in a key heat at Arlington Park, then stepped up to win the Arlinton-Washington Futurity (G3) by three lengths, going one mile on the Polytrack. Steady mover looked like he will handle more ground no problem and he was not extended. He's a little slow on speed figures, but he still has some upside.

7 Craving Carats stole a maiden race on the front end at Saratoga, then was a troubled 8th in the With Anticipation. Expect an agreesive ride from Desormeaux, who rides this track configuration as well as any rider, but this one would need to jump forward significantly on the poly to compete for the win.

8 Dipsy Drew looks overmatched coming off the maiden win at Kentucky Downs. He is likely to be sent by rider Jon Court.

9 Charming Kitten looked good breaking his maiden off a wide, pace-pressing trip at Saratoga. He got an even better trip in the With Anticipation but couldn't quicken enough in the lane to catch Joha, then got his doors blown off by Balance the Books. He could be ready to take a small step forward 2nd time vs. winners. Castellano staying on board is a plus.

10 Positively returns off a 90-day layoff following a good three-race campaign at the Churchill spring meet. He looked like he would appreciate more ground in the maiden win going 5 1/2 furlongs. He produced a wide rally from last in the Bashford Manor (G3) and absolutely lookd like a winner mid-stretch, before flattening a bit to get second. The winner (Circle Unbroken) came back to finish second in the Mountaineer Juvenile, in what was probably an above average edition of that race. Positively showed some high leg action in the Bashford Manor, and sometimes horses with that motion adapt well to Polytrack.

11 Balance the Books got going a little too late in his debut when finishing second behind wire-to-wire winner Craving Carats. Despite his maiden status, his connections put him in the With Anticipation (Grade 2), and he showed why, producing a fierce rally to run down loose-on-the-lead Joha. Balance the Books ran his final 5/16 in a fast 28-4, and looked like he would love more ground. If he can duplicate that move on the Poly, he is very dangerous, but two caveats. This course layout does not favor deep closers, and I often seen big turns of foot dulled a bit on the Poly. Expect him to come running.

12 Dynamic Sky debuted in a Canadian-bred stake at Woodbine, where he finished third after getting repelled by the very good two-year-old Uncaptured. Dynamic Sky came back in another restricted stake and took a nice step forward. He produced a sustained, wide move and wore down Honorable Guest (whom Joha also beat by a head in his maiden win) to get the win. The race came back fast (90 Beyer speed figure), but he looked a little green lugging in during that stretch run. He has some running ability, but I think he'll need another step forward in the maturity department to take this from out here.

13 He's Had Enough looked green but promising when he broke his maiden in his debut going 6 1/2 furlongs on the Del Mar polytrack. Stepped up and stretched out to one mile on turf, he ran an ok 6th in the Oak Tree Juvenile. In both races he shied from close space competition with other horses. The connections are going blinkers on here, no doubt to try to improve his forward efficiency. 1 1/16 miles on the poly looks like a good trip for this Tapit colt, but there's no margin for error from this wide post and he'll need a forward move.

14 Tree of Life looks slow on Beyer speed figures, too slow, but I really liked the intangibles in both of his wins. Undefeated Lion Heart colt handled a lot of chaos and showed good presence in both of his races. Note his restricted stakes win at Fairplex was a two-turn race. He's stepping up in class a few levels and drew a terrible post. I like this horse, but I can't endorse him for the win on the cross-country ship and move to G1 company.

Pete's Picks

Java's War

Balance the Books

Are You Kidding Me

Pataky Kid