Unlocking Winners

Is World Beater Unbeatable in the Old Dominion Derby?

-Keelerman — Fri, 05 Sep 2025 05:04:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

An exciting weekend of racing is on the agenda.

In North America alone, 11 graded stakes are slated for Saturday and Sunday. We'll focus our attention on two contests: the Old Dominion Derby (G3) and the Del Mar Futurity (G1).

Saturday: Old Dominion Derby (G3) at Colonial Downs

Nine three-year-olds will race 1 1/8 miles over the Colonial Downs turf course in the Old Dominion Derby, a race formerly known as the Virginia Derby. #6 World Beater is a formidable favorite who looks mighty tough to beat.

Most of the Old Dominion Derby entrants have been competing with mixed results in allowance and ungraded stakes. In contrast, World Beater has excelled competing in Grade 1 races at Saratoga. On July 4, he closed from midfield to finish second in the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Derby (G1), beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Transylvania (G3) winner and American Turf (G1) runner-up Test Score, who reached the finish line in the fast time of 1:45.56.

World Beater then stretched out over 1 3/16 miles for the Saratoga Derby (G1). Again, he rated in midfield before launching a strong rally. He had plenty of ground to gain in the final furlong, but a relentless late charge carried World Beater to victory by half a length in 1:52.82. Test Score settled for third place, a head behind the runner-up.

World Beater is improving with every start and should cruise to victory while dropping in class for the Old Dominion Derby. He's my top choice, but for second place I'll go a little outside the box and recommend longshot #7 Thirteen Colonies (10-1).

Last time out, Thirteen Colonies ran strongly in a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer over the Saratoga turf. He tracked a solid pace in second place, took over the lead in midstretch, and then weakened late to finish second by 2 1/4 lengths against Simulate. The latter clocked a quick final time of 1:40.32 and subsequently proved graded stakes caliber when finishing second by one length in the Secretariat (G2).

Based off his showing against Simulate, Thirteen Colonies looks like a good fit for the Old Dominion Derby, and I'm optimistic he'll outrun his odds to land a spot in the top two or three.

Sunday: Del Mar Futurity (G1) at Del Mar

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Del Mar Futurity a staggering 18 times since 1996, including 11 out of 17 editions since 2008 and every renewal since 2021.

Baffert has a strong chance to win the seven-furlong sprint again in 2025. He trains four of the six horses entered in this year's Del Mar Futurity, including expected favorites #2 Brant and #5 Desert Gate.

Desert Gate is the most accomplished Del Mar Futurity entrant. After winning his debut at Santa Anita, he tackled Del Mar's six-furlong Best Pal (G3) and romped by 8 3/4 lengths.

But Baffert often wins the Del Mar Futurity with last-out maiden winners rather than proven stakes performers, and it's worth noting Desert Gate's first two Beyer speed figures (86 and 79) pale in comparison to the 101 Brant posted in his stellar debut win on July 26 at Del Mar.

Back in March, Brant was purchased for $3 million after breezing a furlong in :09 3/5 at the OBS March 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Earning back such a lofty purchase price won't be easy, but Brant may be capable of pulling it off.

Brant entered his debut off an impressive series of workouts at Santa Anita at Del Mar. Favored at 4-5 against eight rivals, Brant rated in third place by 1 1/2 lengths through an opening quarter-mile in :21.56, then took over and drew clear through fast closing fractions to dominate by 5 1/4 lengths in 1:02.63.

In the process, Brant defeated a quality field. Runner-up #4 Civil Liberty is entered in the Del Mar Futurity, while third-place finisher #3 Balboa returned to crush his next start by 7 3/4 lengths and is likewise part of the Del Mar Futurity field.

Brant has posted four timed workouts since his maiden win, including a swift five furlongs in :58 2/5 and six furlongs in a stiff 1:11 2/5. Under red-hot jockey Flavien Prat (who has gone 5-for-10 at Del Mar this meet), Brant is a compelling choice to win the Del Mar Futurity. Consider betting him over Desert Gate in a cold exacta.

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the graded stakes this weekend?

*****

Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)

J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.

Will Journalism Defeat Older Foes in the Pacific Classic?

-Keelerman — Fri, 29 Aug 2025 05:16:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

These days, in the United States, it isn't common to see three-year-olds defeat older horses in Grade 1 races before the Breeders' Cup. With so many rich targets for sophomores on the summer and fall calendar, there isn't much incentive for three-year-olds to step outside their own age group.

But most of those age-restricted opportunities are found in the East and Midwest. In the West, specifically California, there aren't many options. That's one reason why the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar remains a viable target for three-year-olds. Sure, older horses win the 1 1/4-mile contest more often than not, but sophomores Dullahan (2012), Shared Belief (2014), and Arabian Knight (2023) have taken home top honors in the last 15 years.

Can #6 Journalism (9-5) become the latest three-year-old to conquer older rivals in the Pacific Classic? This is a tough year to attempt the task, but I believe Journalism is up to the challenge.

Journalism never runs a bad race. He's won six of his last eight starts, taking the Preakness (G1), Haskell (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), San Felipe (G2), and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). His two defeats this year were strong runner-up finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1) to Sovereignty, who won last week's Travers (G1) to cement his favoritism for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

Journalism wasn't quite up to beating Sovereignty during the spring, but Sovereignty is as talented a three-year-old as we've seen so far this decade, and Journalism may find defeating older horses in the Pacific Classic to be an easier assignment.

When he's not knocking heads with Sovereignty, Journalism has proven to be almost unstoppable. In the Preakness, he bulled his way through severe traffic and bumping to gain five lengths in the final furlong and defeat Lexington (G3) winner Gosger by half a length. In the Haskell, he raced a bit sluggishly during the early stages, but rallied relentlessly down the homestretch to again defeat Gosger by half a length.

Time and time again, Journalism runs fast on the Beyer speed figure and Brisnet Speed rating scales. He's posted triple-digit Beyers on five occasions this year, peaking with a 108 in the San Felipe. He's also posted six straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 102-108 range.

These numbers stack up well against the Pacific Classic field. One of his key rivals, 2023 champion three-year-old male #1 Fierceness (3-1), has run faster on his best day. But this year, Fierceness' highest Beyer and Brisnet numbers are the 107s he posted when winning the Alysheba (G2), and he's since regressed when finishing second in the Metropolitan H. (G1) and fifth in the Whitney (G1).

#4 Nysos (8-5) is shaping up as an even greater threat to Journalism after dominating five of his first six starts, including last month's San Diego H. (G2) at Del Mar. His lone defeat came when second in the Churchill Downs (G1) off a long layoff, beaten only a neck by next-out Stephen Foster (G1) winner Mindframe while finishing ahead of future Forego (G1) winner Book'em Danno. But Nysos has yet to earn a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 106, and his best Beyer this year—a 108—was earned in the seven-furlong Triple Bend (G3).

Looking beyond speed figures, the Pacific Classic race dynamics should play to Journalism's strengths as well. Landing post six in an eight-horse field should allow Journalism to work out a favorable trip racing in the clear—no need to battle through traffic like in the Preakness. In contrast, Fierceness must try to negotiate a clean trip from the rail post, which could be tricky since outside stalking trips seem to be his preference.

The post draw shouldn't bother Nysos, but the 1 1/4-mile distance is a potential obstacle. He's never run farther than 1 1/16 miles, and while his pedigree suggests the longer trip is within reach, it's worth noting Nysos has done his best work in sprints.

For all these reasons, I'm keen to back Journalism to win the Pacific Classic. Fierceness and Nysos are formidable foes, but they're not without chinks in their armor. I believe Journalism's strong form and proven affinity for classic distances will win the day.

If you want to mix a longshot into your trifecta tickets, try #2 Midnight Mammoth (12-1). He's shown talent and stamina winning the 1 1/2-mile Cougar II (G3) and finishing second in the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G2), so this speedy six-year-old should see out the Pacific Classic distance just fine.

Selections

1st: Journalism
2nd: Nysos
3rd: Fierceness
4th: Midnight Mammoth

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Pacific Classic?

*****

Picks for the Travers and Forego Stakes

-Keelerman — Wed, 20 Aug 2025 15:19:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The feature race at Saratoga this Saturday is the historic $1.25 million Travers (G1), but there are four other Grade 1 stakes on the agenda as well.

Travers (G1)

At least on paper, the Travers isn't shaping up as a great betting race. Only five horses have entered, and #4 Sovereignty (2-5) figures to start as an overwhelming favorite.

Sovereignty's credentials are compelling. He's already won twice at the highest level over 1 1/4 miles, the distance of the Travers. In the Kentucky Derby (G1), he stormed home from 16th place to defeat next-out Preakness (G1) winner Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths. Then in the Belmont (G1) at Saratoga, he stayed within two lengths of a respectable pace before finishing strongly to conquer Journalism by three lengths.

On every level, Sovereignty's Belmont performance was stellar. Despite racing much closer to the early pace than usual, the Godolphin homebred rocketed his final quarter-mile in :23.69, earning a massive 117 Brisnet Late Pace rating. And the form of the Belmont was flattered when Journalism came back to win the Haskell (G1) in his next start.

Sovereignty prepped for the Travers by cutting back in distance for the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga. He probably wasn't cranked for a peak performance, but he nevertheless stayed closed to the pace and wore down Kentucky Derby and Belmont third-place finisher Baeza to win by one length.

With a successful prep run under his belt, Sovereignty should be poised for a maximum performance in the Travers, which has been his summer target ever since the Belmont. He's the fastest entrant from a Beyer speed figure and Brisnet Speed rating standpoint, so I expect to see Sovereignty deliver a fourth straight win this Saturday.

His main opposition is #1 Magnitude (2-1), and I can see where some bettors might side with Magnitude for an upset. He caught eyes during the winter at Fair Grounds when he led all the way to obliterate the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) by 9 3/4 lengths, earning a 108 Beyer only one point lower than Sovereignty's career-best number.

Unfortunately, an ankle chip prevented Magnitude from pursuing the Triple Crown. But he picked up where he left off in the 1 1/16-mile Iowa Derby last month, wiring the field by 9 1/4 lengths with a 105 Beyer.

Magnitude is clearly a talented colt, but there are some possible chinks in his armor. One, he's unproven racing 1 1/4 miles. Two, he's stepping up in class. Three, he could face meaningful pace pressure from #2 Bracket Buster (20-1), who led nearly all the way to win the Pegasus S. by seven lengths. For these reasons, I'm skeptical whether the stage is set for Magnitude to upset Sovereignty, but I do believe he's the most likely runner-up.

For third place, I'll take #3 Strategic Focus (6-1). He's adding blinkers off a close third-place finish to multiple Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick in Saratoga's 1 1/8-mile Curlin S. As a son of Gun Runner out of a mare by Curlin, Strategic Focus is bred to relish 1 1/4 miles, and with only three starts under his belt he still has upside.

Selections

1st: Sovereignty
2nd: Magnitude
3rd: Strategic Focus

Forego (G1)

Since I've backed a chalky outcome in the Travers, I'll offer a somewhat more creative selection in the Forego (G1), a seven-furlong sprint for older horses that directly precedes the Travers on Saturday's card.

The obvious choice is #4 Book'em Danno (8-5), whose 3-for-4 record at Saratoga includes wins in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G1), 6 1/2-furlong True North (G3), and six-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G2). The latter two wins have come this season, and in the Vanderbilt, Book'em Danno earned a powerful 111 Beyer that ranks as the co-highest number earned by any horse racing one mile or less in 2025.

But I'm willing to take a shot against Book'em Danno with #1 Most Wanted (5-1), simply because I believe Most Wanted is an underrated talent with upside for improvement while cutting back in distance.

Most Wanted is best known for winning the 1 1/8-mile Oklahoma Derby (G3) last fall. He's a capable two-turn competitor; during the spring, he ran second to champion Fierceness in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba (G2), earning a 105 Beyer.

But Most Wanted is also 4-for-4 racing one mile or less. He was especially impressive in a one-mile $175,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last time out. After dueling for the lead through increasingly stiff fractions of :23.79, :46.96, and 1:10.63, Most Wanted accelerated his final quarter-mile in a strong :23.56 to draw off and win by four lengths in 1:34.19.

That fast finish suggests Most Wanted had plenty left in the tank and might have clocked an even faster final time if he'd been asked for his best earlier in the race. Cutting back to seven furlongs in the Forego, I hope to see Most Wanted drop off the early pace before unleashing a powerful finish down the homestretch. I believe he can outkick Book'em Danno and spring a surprise.

Now it's your turn! Who do you like at Saratoga this week?

*****

Picking a Speed Horse in the Alabama

-Keelerman — Fri, 15 Aug 2025 04:38:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

A small but high-quality field is slated to start in Saturday's $600,000 Alabama (G1) at Saratoga.

Unlike most dirt stakes for three-year-old fillies, which are held over 1 1/8 miles or less, the Alabama takes place over 1 1/4 miles. Sometimes, the unusually long distance gives late runners an advantage; if they have the stamina to stay 1 1/4 miles, they can run down tiring speed horses. Remember when 9-1 shot Eskimo Kisses closed from out of the clouds to dominate the 2018 Alabama by 6 1/2 lengths?

But I don't anticipate the 2025 Alabama unfolding in that manner. The six-horse field is severely lacking in pace. #6 La Cara (5-2) is the lone frontrunner in the field, and the only horse who appears capable of pressing the pace is La Cara's stablemate #4 Nitrogen (9-5). Since a speed duel between these Mark Casse trainees seems unlikely, the stage may be set for La Cara to lead all the way and secure her third Grade 1 win of the year.

La Cara has struggled with consistency at times; during the spring, she tired over a wet-fast track at Churchill Downs to finish a distant ninth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She sandwiched that defeat in between decisive wins in the Ashland (G1) and Acorn (G1).

In the Ashland, La Cara carved out the pace and opened up a 3 1/2-length lead in midstretch before digging down to beat Take Charge Milady by 1 1/4 lengths. The latter went on to defeat 2024 champion two-year-old filly Immersive in the June 14 Monomoy Girl S.

La Cara conquered an even stronger field in the Acorn. Racing over a sloppy track, she led at every call through solid pace fractions to score by three lengths over Eight Belles (G2) winner Look Forward and Frizette (G1) heroine Scottish Lassie. The form was flattered when Scottish Lassie returned to smash the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga by 15 1/2 lengths.

The Acorn came back quick on the speed figure scales. La Cara earned a 101 Brisnet Speed rating (the highest number in the Alabama field) and a 93 Beyer.

With her strong speed figures and proven Grade 1 form, La Cara is a formidable Alabama win contender. Throw in the tactical advantage of being the lone frontrunner, and La Cara may prove impossible to catch. She's my top choice.

For runner-up honors, I'll side with Nitrogen, who figures to work out a favorable trip tracking La Cara in second position. The daughter of Medaglia d'Oro has spent the vast majority of her career competing on turf, winning five stakes and posting top-three finishes in the Belmont Oaks (G1), Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), and Natalma (G1).

But Nitrogen has also shown potential on dirt. In an off-the-turf renewal of the Wonder Again (G3) at Saratoga, she crushed her competition by 17 lengths. Granted, she beat only two rivals over a sloppy track, but nothing in Nitrogen's pedigree suggests she can't be a highly effective dirt racer. Plus, in this small Alabama field, she shouldn't have to deal with dirt kickback.

#2 Good Cheer (8-5) is my third choice. Her form is a little tricky to interpret. She won her first seven starts in a row by margins ranging from 2 1/4 lengths to 17 lengths, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1). But she ran dramatically below her best in the Acorn last time out, failing to mount a challenge while finishing fifth by 9 1/4 lengths.

Good Cheer has been freshened since the Acorn and could certainly bounce back in the Alabama. But she's yet to run particularly fast from a Beyer speed figure or Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and her stretch-running style could place her at a tactical disadvantage against La Cara and Nitrogen. For these reasons, I view Good Cheer as a vulnerable favorite.

#1 Margie's Intention (8-1) can round out the superfecta. A stablemate to Good Cheer trained by Brad Cox, Margie's Intention enjoyed a productive spring, winning the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and finishing a closing second in the Delaware Oaks (G3). While not as accomplished (nor as fast on paper) as the Alabama favorites, Margie's Intention is a consistent filly who figures to run her race and land a spot in the top four.

Selections

1st: La Cara
2nd: Nitrogen
3rd: Good Cheer
4th: Margie's Intention

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Alabama?

*****

Will Mystik Dan Upset the Arlington Million?

-Keelerman — Thu, 07 Aug 2025 16:16:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The Arlington Million (G1) dates back to 1981 and is fabled as the first Thoroughbred horse race offering a $1 million purse, which it retains to this day.

Despite its prestige and lengthy history, the Arlington Million has never been won by a Kentucky Derby (G1) champion. Even though both races take place over 1 1/4 miles, the fact the Derby is a dirt race and the Arlington Million a turf test discourages Derby winners from giving the Million a try.

Perhaps #1 Mystik Dan (9-2) can complete the elusive double when the 2025 Arlington Million is contested at Colonial Downs this Saturday.

Mystik Dan has never run on turf, but his talent is undeniable. In 2024, he won the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, prevailing in a three-horse photo finish over future Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone and eventual Saudi Cup (G1) conqueror Forever Young. And while Mystik Dan went off form for a while, he's come around in recent starts, winning the Blame (G3) and finishing fourth by 2 1/2 lengths in a deep renewal of the Stephen Foster (G1).

Switching to turf is obviously an obstacle, but not an insurmountable one. This year's Arlington Million field has come up light by historical standards. Mystik Dan is the only Grade 1 winner in the field, and the majority of his rivals are winless this year.

From a pedigree perspective, there's no reason to believe Mystik Dan will struggle on turf. His sire, two-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents, has proved effective as a sire of turf horses. One of his best runners is Going to Vegas, a two-time winner of the 1 1/4-mile Rodeo Drive (G1).

Meanwhile, Mystik Dan's dam is Ma'am, a daughter of Colonel John. Colonel John is the sire of 1 1/8-mile Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) winner La Coronel and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) runner-up Airoforce.

Moving beyond pedigree, Mystik Dan's on-track performances suggest he's well-suited to grass racing. He's shown time and time again that he loves saving ground inside and behind rivals, winning the Kentucky Derby, Blame, and Southwest (G3) with such tactics. This style is often effective in turf racing, and drawing the rail in the Arlington Million affords Mystik Dan a picture-perfect opportunity to work out his preferred trip.

Mystik Dan's acceleration is also noteworthy. Turf races are often won with strong bursts of homestretch speed, which Mystik Dan has shown on a few occasions. When he broke his maiden sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs, he blazed his fifth furlong in :11.35 and his final sixteenth in :06.04 to win by 7 3/4 lengths. And in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest, he rocketed his final sixteenth in :05.93, which is difficult to do in a dirt route race.

For all these reasons, Mystik Dan is my choice to win the Arlington Million. I envision him saving ground behind speed horses #2 Time Song (30-1), #3 Vesting (12-1), and #4 Runaway Storm (20-1) before unleashing a sharp homestretch bid to become the first Kentucky Derby/Arlington Million winner.

For second place, I'll support #8 Integration (8-5), runner-up in the 2024 Arlington Million. It's hard to believe Integration hasn't managed to win a Grade 1 race yet, considering he's recorded a quintet of top-three finishes at the highest level. That tally includes runner-up finishes this year in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), Maker's Mark Mile (G1), and Manhattan (G1). In the latter race, Integration closed nearly five lengths in the final furlong to fall a head shy of Deterministic, who returned to win the Fourstardave (G1) in his next start.

#5 Cairo (7-2), a challenger from overseas, is my third choice. Although he's gone winless in 16 starts since taking the Patton S. in March 2023, Cairo is a capable group stakes performer who exits a third-place finish in the one-mile Queen Anne (G1) at Royal Ascot, one of his best efforts to date.

It's possible 1 1/4 miles is farther than Cairo wants to run, given that he's winless in nine starts over distances from 1 1/8 miles to 1 5/16 miles. But even though he was tiring at the end of the 1 5/16-mile Huxley (G2) earlier this year, he still held for second place, suggesting he can last for a top-three finish in the Arlington Million.

Selections

1st: Mystik Dan
2nd: Integration
3rd: Cairo

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Arlington Million?

*****

Will a Saratoga Standout Win the Whitney?

-Keelerman — Thu, 31 Jul 2025 16:22:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Who will prevail in Saturday's $1 million Whitney (G1) at Saratoga? The 1 1/8-mile "Win and You're In" qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) has drawn a tremendous field with plenty of viable win contenders.

A quick pace is expected. Even with #1 Mindframe (5-2) expected to scratch, there's plenty of speed in the entries. #8 Contrary Thinking (50-1) is slated to serve as a pacemaker for stretch-running stablemate #5 Sierra Leone (2-1). #4 Mama's Gold (50-1) is a pure frontrunner who has carved out the pace in each of his last six starts. #7 White Abarrio (4-1), winner of the Whitney and Breeders' Cup Classic two years ago, often races close to the pace. So too does 2023 champion two-year-old male #9 Fierceness (9-5).

But will the pace be extreme? I don't think so. Contrary Thinking was a stretch-running sprinter before leading gate-to-wire (through modest fractions) to win a one-mile allowance at Aqueduct last time out. Mama's Gold may be a frontrunner, but he hasn't run six furlongs faster than 1:11.02 in his last six starts. White Abarrio has speed, but he's not a need-the-lead type and only rarely leads during the first three calls of a race. Meanwhile, Fierceness hasn't found himself setting the early pace since wiring the 2024 Florida Derby (G1).

The presence of Contrary Thinking as a pacemaker should ensure honest fractions, but I don't see the tempo being destructive. That's why I'm willing to back Fierceness as my top choice in the Whitney.

Fierceness loves Saratoga. He's won three of his four starts over this track, including the 2024 Travers (G1) over future Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna and champion three-year-old male Sierra Leone. His lone defeat at Saratoga came over a sloppy, sealed track in the Metropolitan H. (G1) two months ago, a race in which Fierceness finished second to Malibu (G1) winner Raging Torrent.

Two starts back, over a fast track, Fierceness unleashed an eye-catching burst of speed to win the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs by 1 1/2 lengths against Oklahoma Derby (G3) winner Most Wanted. He earned a powerful 107 Beyer Speed Figure, one of the highest numbers posted by any Whitney entrant this year.

Fierceness ran even faster on the Beyer scale last year. He posted a 111 in the Travers and repeated that number in the Breeders' Cup Classic, when he finished second by 1 1/2 lengths against Sierra Leone. I would argue Fierceness ran the best race in the Breeders' Cup Classic, considering he pressed and set intense fractions of :22.43, :44.96, and 1:09.44 that favored deep-closing Sierra Leone.

If Fierceness, on his best day, can chase a sub-:45 half-mile and still finish second in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic, I don't think he'll be bothered by pace in the shorter Whitney. Drawing outside all the other speed horses should afford him options for working out a perfect trip. I believe Fierceness can settle behind Contrary Thinking and Mama's Gold, pounce when called upon, and deliver a fourth win from five starts at Saratoga.

For second place, I'll take Sierra Leone. When he gets a fast pace to chase, he can strike at the highest level, as he demonstrated in the Breeders' Cup Classic and also in the 2024 Blue Grass (G1). When facing relaxed fractions, he tends to settle for second or third place, as he's done in six of his last seven starts. He exits a runner-up finish to Mindframe in the Stephen Foster (G1), in which he closed into fractions of :47.94 and 1:11.46. Any quicker pace fractions in the Whitney should help Sierra Leone secure a spot in the top two.

If you want to add a longshot to your tickets, #10 Post Time (12-1) is another runner who stands to benefit from a contested pace. The stretch-running five-year-old enjoyed a strong 2024 season, finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and Metropolitan H. (G1) and third (beaten only 2 1/2 lengths) in a fast edition of the Whitney.

Post Time has won two out of three starts this year and exits a fast-finishing 3 1/2-length triumph in a slow-paced renewal of the Deputed Testamony S. at Laurel Park. Consistency is a strong suit for Post Time (he's never finished out of the trifecta), and his best Beyers are fast enough to put him in the hunt for another top-three Whitney finish.

Selections

1st: Fierceness
2nd: Sierra Leone
3rd: Post Time

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Whitney?

*****

Will Baeza Upset Sovereignty in the Jim Dandy?

-Keelerman — Wed, 23 Jul 2025 01:57:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The field for Saturday's $500,000 Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga is small, with only five horses in the entries. But quality runs deep—very deep—in the 1 1/8-mile contest for three-year-olds.

Two of the entrants are Grade 1 winners, including a duel classic winner. Two others are graded stakes winner. And the one runner who hasn't scored a stakes win has placed in multiple classics.

#5 Sovereignty is going to start as a heavy favorite, and deservedly so. The son of Into Mischief is developing into a beast. In the Kentucky Derby (G1), he stormed home from 16th place to defeat next-out Preakness (G1) winner Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths. Then in the Belmont (G1), Sovereignty stayed within two lengths of the pace before blazing his final quarter-mile in a sensational :23.69 to beat Journalism by three lengths.

Journalism, of course, flattered that form by returning to win last week's Haskell (G1).

Sovereignty might be one of the best three-year-olds we've seen in recent years. But does that mean he's unbeatable in the Jim Dandy? Not necessarily. I can think of a couple reasons why Sovereignty might come up short.

For one, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont took place over 1 1/4 miles, and Sovereignty relished every yard of those races. The Jim Dandy is a furlong shorter, giving Sovereignty less time to exert his authority.

Second, Sovereignty's main summer target is next month's Travers (G1) at Saratoga. After the Belmont, trainer Bill Mott even mentioned Sovereignty could skip the Jim Dandy and train up to the Travers. The Jim Dandy appears to be a prep race for Sovereignty rather than a goal in and of itself, which is worth emphasizing since Sovereignty lost the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) when prepping for a peak performance in the Kentucky Derby.

Sovereignty may well be talented enough to win the Jim Dandy with something less than his absolute best effort, but what happens if Kentucky Derby and Belmont third-place finisher #1 Baeza steps forward with the race of his life?

Whereas Sovereignty enters the Jim Dandy off a solid but not especially remarkable slate of workouts, Baeza has been training like never before out at Santa Anita. He's been a rocket in the mornings, clocking a bullet half-mile in :46 2/5, a bullet six furlongs in 1:11 1/5, six furlongs in 1:12 2/5, and five furlongs in :59 4/5.

Baeza has turned in the occasional quick workout in the past, but the intensity of his present work tab is uncharted territory. The full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont hero Dornoch might only now be hitting his stride, a scary thought given the talent he's demonstrated already.

Early in his career, Baeza showed some degree of tactical speed. He pressed the pace when breaking his maiden by 4 3/4 lengths, and in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he stayed within a length of the pace for much of the journey before settling for second place (beaten only three-quarters of a length) against Journalism.

In the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, Baeza was considerably more sluggish early on. He fell as far back as 15th place in the Derby, but despite encountering some traffic around the final turn, he rallied late to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths. In the Belmont, he settled sixth early on before closing mildly to run third by 6 1/2 lengths.

I'm optimistic that the speed Baeza has shown in recent workouts is a sign that he's maturing and will return to forwardly placed tactics in the Jim Dandy. Aside from Ohio Derby (G3) winner #3 Mo Plex, there isn't any early speed entered in Saturday's field, so Baeza has every chance to secure a favorable position pressing a slow pace in second place. If Sovereignty regresses at all off his massive Belmont performance, Baeza may have the talent to capitalize on a perfect trip and pull off the upset. He's my choice to win.

For second place, I'll side with Sovereignty. Then my third choice is Mo Plex, a speed horse who enters off a two-length triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Ohio Derby. That marked his first start around two turns, and Mo Plex appeared to relish the configuration. If he escapes with an uncontested lead in the Jim Dandy, he can dig deep late and hold off the deep-closing duo of #2 Sandman and #4 Hill Road to complete the trifecta.

Selections

1st: Baeza
2nd: Sovereignty
3rd: Mo Plex

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Jim Dandy?

*****

Who Will Win the 2025 Haskell Stakes?

-Keelerman — Thu, 17 Jul 2025 16:44:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

In many ways, Saturday's $1 million Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park is shaping up as a rematch of the Preakness (G1).

Three of the top four finishers from the Triple Crown's second jewel will battle over 1 1/8 miles in the Haskell. The group includes Preakness winner #2 Journalism (4-5), who would have swept the Triple Crown if not for the formidable presence of Sovereignty.

Journalism is a top-tier talent in the midst of a strong sophomore season. He opened the year with victories in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), then sandwiched runner-up finishes to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1) around his heart-pounding Preakness triumph.

In the Preakness, Journalism had little to no racing room as the field approached the top of the stretch. He attempted to squeeze through a tiny gap between Clever Again and #8 Goal Oriented (4-1), which led to a severe bumping match. Despite getting bounced around between rivals, Journalism forged through, regrouped, and chased down #6 Gosger (9-2) to win by half a length.

Journalism was none the worse for wear in the Belmont three weeks later, running his typical strong race to finish second with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, his fourth triple-digit number of the year. None of his Haskell rivals have cracked the triple-digit Beyer plateau this season, so if Journalism brings his A game to Monmouth Park, he'll be mighty tough to defeat. A series of sharp workouts since the Belmont (including a bullet six furlongs in 1:12 flat) cements Journalism as the horse to beat. I won't oppose him.

Just like in the Preakness, the stiffest challenge to Journalism could come from Gosger. The son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist has improved by leaps and bounds since his December debut. In April, he won the Lexington (G3) by two lengths over #1 Bracket Buster (10-1), who has since dominated Monmouth's Pegasus S. by seven lengths. And in the Preakness, Gosger opened up a five-length lead in midstretch before Journalism's heroic late rally stole the show.

Gosger has been freshened since the Preakness and has posted half a dozen timed workouts in preparation for the Haskell, including a trio of five-furlong exercises. I anticipate he'll run as well or better at Monmouth as he did at Pimlico two months ago, making Gosger my clear second choice behind Journalism.

#4 Burnham Square (5-1) is bound to be a popular horse in exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta, and for good reason. The late-running gelding has beaten quality competition in the Blue Grass (G1) and Holy Bull (G3) this year, in addition to closing for sixth place in the Kentucky Derby. He exits a respectable runner-up finish (beaten half a length) in a four-horse Matt Winn (G3) field and may get more pace to work with in the Haskell, setting up a strong showing.

However, I wonder if the above-mentioned Goal Oriented is a better choice for third place. The lightly raced colt started his career with two wins from two starts, taking a six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita and a $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Then came the Preakness, in which Goal Oriented took some of the worst of the bumping before staying on for fourth place behind Journalism, Gosger, and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman.

After taking nearly a month off from serious training, Goal Oriented returned to the work tab in mid-June. He's posted four bullet workouts leading up to the Haskell, including five-furlong moves in :58 3/5, :58 flat, and :59 1/5. He's training like he has upside for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has compiled an otherworldly 15-9-5-1 record in the Haskell since 2000. That's a 100% in-the-money rate.

I'll count on Goal Oriented to move forward with a clean trip in the Haskell and contribute another top-three finish to Baffert's Haskell record.

Bracket Buster couldn't quite keep pace with Gosger when finishing second in the Lexington, and over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs he finished seventh behind Goal Oriented in the latter's $125,000 allowance optional claiming win. But the speedy colt rebounded over sloppy footing at Monmouth in the Pegasus, dueling for the lead before powering clear to win easily by seven lengths. Consistency isn't a strong suit for Bracket Buster, but if one of the favorites misfires, he's shown enough talent to suggest he can crack the superfecta on his best day.

Selections

1st: Journalism
2nd: Gosger
3rd: Goal Oriented
4th: Burnham Square
5th: Bracket Buster

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Haskell?

*****

How Might Rain Affect the Diana and Bowling Green?

-Keelerman — Thu, 10 Jul 2025 20:30:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The weather could potentially have an impact on two graded stakes taking place over the Saratoga turf course this Saturday.

There's potential for rain at Saratoga this week, so we'll keep in mind the possibility that the graded stakes will take place over less-than-firm turf.

Bowling Green (G2)

The first of the graded stakes is the Bowling Green for older horses racing 1 3/8 miles over the inner turf. Regardless of course condition, #7 Far Bridge (6-5) is my choice to prevail.

Unlocking Winners readers know I've been a fan of Far Bridge since he won his January 2023 debut over future Grade 1 winner Carl Spackler. In the 2 1/2 years since, he's developed into a high-level grass competitor over a variety of distances and course conditions. He's won the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Derby (G1), 1 1/2-mile Sword Dancer (G1), and 1 1/2-mile Pan American (G3) on firm turf plus the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and 1 3/8-mile Man o' War (G2) over good turf.

Far Bridge started 2025 with his Pan American and Man o' War triumphs. Then he cut back to 1 1/8 miles over good turf for the Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga, where he finished third by a neck over a distance shorter than his best.

Stretching back out over 1 3/8 miles for the Bowling Green should suit Far Bridge to perfection. Since last summer, he's shown improved tactical speed, and that should allow him to work out a favorable forwardly placed trip. I anticipate he'll deliver a comfortable victory over the multiple Grade 1-placed #5 Webslinger (7-2) and the stoutly bred #2 El Rezeen (8-1), whose lone stakes appearance thus far yielded a close third in the 2024 Jockey Club Derby (G3) racing 1 3/8 miles.

El Rezeen demonstrated ample stamina prior to the Jockey Club Derby, winning a 1 1/2-mile maiden special weight and a 1 3/8-mile allowance at Saratoga. Unsurprisingly, he came up short when cutting back to 1 1/16 miles for his 2025 debut, finishing second in a Keeneland allowance. This son of English Channel out of a Kitten's Joy mare should relish stretching back out over 1 3/8 miles for his second run of the season.

Diana (G1)

Whereas I believe Far Bridge will win the Bowling Green regardless of course condition, I can see rain influencing who wins the 1 1/8-mile Diana for fillies and mares.

Let's review the conditions most suitable for each of the six entrants:

#1 She Feels Pretty (1-1): The heavy favorite has won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) and American Oaks (G1) on firm turf, the Natalma (G1) over good going, and the New York (G1) on yielding turf. She's clearly a versatile filly, though her best performances have come over firm turf, and she had to work very hard to win the New York by half a length last month. If significant rain falls and the Saratoga turf is reduced to yielding for the Diana, She Feels Pretty could prove vulnerable. Especially if she gets buried inside while breaking from the rail—any delay in launching her rally over yielding turf could make it difficult for She Feels Pretty to catch up.

#2 Choisya (8-1): Choisya doesn't mind a little give in the ground, as she demonstrated when taking the Jenny Wiley (G1) by half a length over good turf at Keeneland. She tracked the pace that day, then kicked on to defeat Excellent Truth by half a length. However, Choisya faltered when trying yielding turf in the Just a Game (G1) last time out, finishing a dull seventh behind Dynamic Pricing and Excellent Truth. Her form in Europe last year likewise hints that Choisya doesn't care for overly soft turf.

#3 Lady Claypoole (20-1): Winner of the Santa Ana (G3) over good ground, Lady Claypoole has also run well over firm turf, winning multiple allowances and finishing second in the Gamely (G1).

#4 Excellent Truth (5-2): Formerly based in France, Excellent Truth has repeatedly shown she doesn't mind a damp course. Her first two starts in the U.S. yielded close seconds in the Jenny Wiley (over good turf) and the Just a Game (over yielding ground). The question is, what will happen if rain skips over Saratoga and the course is firm for the Diana? There's a chance Excellent Truth could produce a stronger turn-of-foot in her first start over a firm U.S. turf course. Or, she could run below her best.

#5 Dynamic Pricing (9-2): Dynamic Pricing has won the Just a Game and Edgewood (G2) over yielding turf and the Beaugay (G3) over good grass, so this stretch-running four-year-old is a force to reckon with over any ground.

#6 Be Your Best (6-1): Firm turf is a strong suit for Be Your Best, who recently led all the way to win the Gamely by 2 3/4 lengths. She's struggled over damp ground, most notably tiring to finish eighth over good turf in the Jenny Wiley two starts back. Any meaningful rainfall at Saratoga could compromise Be Your Best's chances.

Taking all of these factors together, I'll hedge my Diana selection a bit. If the course is firm or good, I'll count on She Feels Pretty to unleash her terrific turn-of-foot to record a fifth straight victory. However, if the course comes up yielding or soft, I think there's a chance Excellent Truth will outkick She Feels Pretty in the drive.

Excellent Truth ran into trouble when beaten only half a length by Choisya in the Jenny Wiley, and against this small Diana field, Excellent Truth has every chance to save ground and launch a winning rally under hot jockey Flavien Prat.

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Diana?

*****

Picks for Belmont Derby, Belmont Oaks

-Keelerman — Thu, 03 Jul 2025 19:14:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Racing fans are in for a treat this week. Saratoga is hosting a four-day July 4th Racing Festival from Thursday through Sunday.

No fewer than 10 stakes races are on the agenda, including the Belmont Derby (G1) and Belmont Oaks (G1). Let's handicap both races:

Friday: Belmont Derby (G1)

The Independence Day feature at Saratoga is the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Derby. Eight horses have entered, though #8 Flying Mohawk (6-1) will scratch after undergoing emergency colic surgery.

There's very little pace entered in the Belmont Derby. Six of the seven expected starters have shown little to no interest in racing up front. The lone exception is #1 Tank (12-1), a tried-and-true speed horse with a shot to steal the Belmont Derby on the front end.

Tank has been in hot form on grass this year. He started the season with a pacesetting runner-up finish in a $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park, where he was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by the Grade 1-placed Dream On, who has since won the Penn Mile (G3).

Following a poor showing on synthetic, Tank returned to turf with pace-tracking wins in the Equistaff Sophomore Turf S. at Tampa Bay Downs and the English Channel S. at Gulfstream Park. Most recently, he escaped with an easy lead in Gulfstream's 1 1/16-mile Not Surprising S., in which he clocked his final five-sixteenths of a mile in :29.73 to win by three lengths in 1:39.93.

Stepping up in class is a meaningful challenge for Tank, but if he shakes loose up front and posts splits of :24, :49, and 1:14, he may prove impossible to catch. At 12-1, I'm willing to beat Tank can spring the upset.

#5 Test Score (4-1), winner of the Transylvania (G3) and runner-up in the American Turf (G1), has a bit more tactical speed than some of the other Belmont Derby entrants and may find himself in the best position to challenge Tank down the Saratoga homestretch. But he finished only a nose better than deep-closing #4 New Century (3-1) over a rain-dampened turf course in the American Turf, and the latter colt—who won the Summer (G1) at Woodbine last year—may step forward if he encounters firm turf at Saratoga.

#3 Luther (6-1) is making his North American debut after a couple of tries against top-tier competition in France. He was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Henri Matisse when fourth in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (G1) and shouldn't be excluded from Belmont Derby trifecta tickets.

Saturday: Belmont Oaks (G1)

Compared to some years, the Belmont Oaks has come up a bit light. The 1 1/8-mile race has drawn only seven entrants, none of them Grade 1 winners and none of them European shippers. This means there's a clear path for #7 Nitrogen (4-5) to prevail as a short-priced favorite.

Although Nitrogen failed to win in three starts as a juvenile, she finished third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and Natalma (G1), demonstrating her ability to compete at a high level.

Nitrogen has since developed into an unbeatable sophomore. She's 5-for-5 in 2025, rattling off victories in the Ginger Brew S., Florida Oaks (G3), Appalachian (G2), Edgewood (G2), and Wonder Again (G3). She's prevailed by increasingly large margins, and her Edgewood triumph came by a decisive 3 1/2 lengths over Lush Lips, who dominated the Tepin S. in her next start.

Nitrogen has some tactical speed and figures to work out a favorable trip in the Belmont Oaks, possibly settling behind #2 Opulent Restraint (10-1) and #3 Totally Justified (6-1) in third place. From there, I anticipate she'll pounce to the lead when called upon and never look back.

For second place, I prefer the chances of longshot #6 May Day Ready (10-1). Her form has been muddied by distant defeats in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) in Japan and the Wonder Again on dirt. But she opened her career with three straight wins, including a triumph in the Jessamine (G2), and she finished one length ahead of Nitrogen when second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Returning to grass for her second start of the season should help May Day Ready bounce back with a big effort.

#5 Fionn (5-1) is my third choice. She's won four of her last five starts on grass, most recently launching a big rally to take the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs. Her lone defeat this year came when third to Nitrogen in the Appalachian.

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks?

*****

Will Mission Finish First in the Stephen Foster?

-Keelerman — Thu, 26 Jun 2025 21:59:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

A stellar field has turned out to contest Saturday's $1 million Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs. It might be the best group of horses assembled for any U.S. horse race so far this year.

Six of the seven entrants are millionaires. The total earnings of the entire field stands at a spectacular $26,006,361. Four of the entrants are Grade 1 winners, one is a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, and one is a champion.

That said, some of the most accomplished entrants have possible chinks in their armor.

#4 Sierra Leone (5-2) is the morning line favorite. The champion three-year-old male of 2024 finished second by a nose to #5 Mystik Dan (3-1) in the Kentucky Derby, but rebounded at the end of the year to beat a strong field in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

The challenge for Sierra Leone is the fact he's a deep closer. Through much of his sophomore season, he settled for minor awards when facing top-tier competition. When he rallied from 11th place to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, he benefited from closing into intense fractions of :22.43, :44.96, and 1:09.43 that compromised runner-up Fierceness and third-place finisher Forever Young, who were racing about a dozen lengths closer to the pace after half a mile.

Sierra Leone has only run once this year. While trying to close from last place against a decent, but hardly destructive pace in the New Orleans Classic (G2), he settled for third place. Since the Stephen Foster field isn't stuffed with speed on paper, I'm concerned Sierra Leone will find himself at a tactical disadvantage and again settle for second or third place.

Some bettors will opt to support Mystik Dan, whose 3-for-4 record at Churchill Downs includes his above-mentioned triumph over Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby. But in the Derby, Mystik Dan benefited from a perfect ground-saving trip that gave him an advantage over the wide-rallying Sierra Leone and also third-place finisher Forever Young.

Following a five-race losing streak, Mystik Dan bounced back to form in the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs last month, winning by 1 1/4 lengths. But he wasn't facing the toughest field, and he again benefited from a ground-saving trip. He may need another picture-perfect journey to come out on top while returning to the Grade 1 ranks in the Stephen Foster.

#2 Mindframe (7-2) could potentially challenge for favoritism after opening his 2025 campaign with triumphs in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G1). But those were one-turn races, and it's worth noting Mindframe is unbeaten in three starts around one turn. Going two turns, he's 1-for-3, with his lone victory coming in a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer in which he set extremely slow pace fractions.

Granted, Mindframe has run well against tough competition around two turns. He finished second (ahead of Sierra Leone) in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont (G1) and second again in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell (G1). But in both those races, he flattened out after leading in mistretch. While it's too early to say for certain, I wonder if—perhaps—Mindframe is a one-turn horse at heart.

#6 Hit Show (9-2) exits a career-best win in the Dubai World Cup (G1), but his task was made easier by the fact heavy favorite and Saudi Cup (G1) winner Forever Young ran below form. Hit Show prevailed by half a length over Mixto, the 11th-place finisher from the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic. In the U.S., Hit Show has proven to be a better fit for the Grade 2/Grade 3 level than Grade 1 company, so he may find the Stephen Foster to be a tougher spot than the Dubai World Cup.

Thus, I'm left with #1 First Mission (4-1) as my choice to upset the Stephen Foster. There's some risk here since First Mission hasn't cracked the trifecta in three Grade 1 tries, but on his best day the five-year-old Godolphin homebred is fast enough to compete at this level.

Consistency isn't a strong suit for First Mission. He's misfired on some high-profile occasions. Last year, he finished ninth at 5-2 odds in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and fourth as an odds-on favorite in the Stephen Foster. But in between those defeats, he trounced the Essex H. (G3) by five lengths and the Alysheba (G2) by four lengths, with the latter victory coming at Churchill Downs.

First Mission couldn't quite get the job done in his 2025 debut, finishing third by a neck against Alexander Helios and Banishing in the Razorback H. (G3). But then he turned around and thrashed those rivals in the Oaklawn H. (G2), rating in fourth place before taking over to score by two lengths with a powerful 109 Beyer Speed Figure.

Historically, when First Mission gets hot, he strings multiple victories together. I view the Oaklawn H. as a sign that First Mission is back to his best and ready for another peak performance. He's been freshened for two months and enters off a sharp series of five-furlong workouts at Churchill Downs, so I don't see an obvious reason to think he'll misfire.

Since there isn't much pace in this Stephen Foster field, I believe First Mission is poised to work out a perfect trip stalking a modest tempo. If Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) winner #3 Skippylongstocking (6-1) bids for the lead (he's perhaps the likeliest pacesetter), First Mission can take up the chase in second place and perhaps even shift outside for a clear run. From there, he'll have every chance to repeat his 109 Beyer and hold off more heralded rivals in the Churchill Downs homestretch.

Selections

1st: First Mission
2nd: Sierra Leone
3rd: Mindframe
4th: Mystik Dan

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Stephen Foster?

*****

Will Clever Again Rebound in the Ohio Derby?

-Keelerman — Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:23:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

One of my favorite races in between the Triple Crown and summer racing at Saratoga and Del Mar is the $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown.

The 1 1/8-mile race typically draws a quality field with at least one Triple Crown veteran in the entries, and Saturday's renewal is no exception. The 10-horse field for the 2025 Ohio Derby includes two horses who competed in the spring classics: Kentucky Derby (G1) ninth-place finisher #2 Chunk of Gold (7-2) and Preakness (G1) ninth-place runner #6 Clever Again (9-5).

Let's start with Chunk of Gold, who seems likely to finish in the top three. He opened his career with a couple of promising efforts on Tapeta at Turfway Park, tracking the pace to win a six-furlong maiden special weight before rallying to finish second in the one-mile Leonatus S.

Chunk of Gold has continued with rallying tactics since switching to dirt. In the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2), he outran expectations as a 43-1 longshot, closing for second place against runaway winner Magnitude. Even in defeat, Chunk of Gold earned a respectable 92 Beyer Speed Figure, a number he repeated when finishing second in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2).

Then came the Kentucky Derby, in which Chunk of Gold raced in the front half of the field throughout. He advanced to fifth place with half a mile remaining and was only 2 1/4 lengths from the front at the top of the stretch, but then he weakened to finish 15 3/4 lengths behind the victorious Sovereignty.

Dropping down in class and distance for the Ohio Derby should help Chunk of Gold rebound. But his stretch-running style could potentially leave him at a tactical disadvantage against Clever Again, a pure pacesetter who brings promising form lines into the Ohio Derby.

Clever Again opened 2025 on a strong note. The stoutly bred son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park by 3 1/4 lengths. Then in the one-mile Hot Springs S. over the same track, he led all the way to trounce Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Gaming by four lengths with a 101 Beyer.

The form of the Hot Springs has held up well. Gaming has since finished third in the Pat Day Mile (G2) and first in the Affirmed S., while fourth-place finisher Max Got Excited came back to win the Bachelor S. and fifth-place runner Hola Joey won the Golden Circle S. in his next start.

Unfortunately, Clever Again ran into trouble when stepping up in class for the Preakness. After carving out fast fractions of :22.81, :46.23, and 1:10.78 (which earned flashy Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings of 100 and 112), Clever Again appeared to be growing leg-weary. He was probably heading for an off-the-board finish, but his eventual 30 1/2-length margin of defeat was exaggerated by the fact Clever Again got caught up in a severe bumping incident at the top of the stretch. Clever Again had to take up sharply, and after that jockey Jose Ortiz let the colt just cruise to the finish line.

I'm optimistic Clever Again will rebound in the Ohio Derby. While he could potentially face pace pressure from $100,000 maiden claiming winner #9 Master Controller (20-1) and Bay Shore S. conqueror #10 Mo Plex (6-1), those two are sprinters stretching out in distance, and they're not pure need-the-lead types. There's a chance they'll be ridden conservatively while tackling a longer distance; Mo Plex, for example, rated in midfield when finishing third in the one-mile Champagne (G1) last year.

If this proves to be the case, then Clever Again will have every chance to secure an uncontested lead and rebound to the form of his Hot Springs performance. A repeat of that 101 Beyer will make Clever Again tough to catch, so I'll side with him as my top choice over Chunk of Gold.

The other horse with a big chance to factor is #4 McAfee (3-1), a slowly improving half-sibling to 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. McAfee didn't have much luck in two forays on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth in both the Gotham (G3) and the Wood Memorial (G2). However, the Wood Memorial was a fast race, and when McAfee dropped back down in class for the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan (G3), he tracked the pace on his way to finishing second by three-quarters of a length.

In the Peter Pan, McAfee came home half a length ahead of Withers S. winner Captain Cook while earning a 93 Beyer higher than Chunk of Gold's career-best numbers. He has the credentials to finish in the top three on Saturday and may even land a spot in the top two.

Selections

1st: Clever Again
2nd: Chunk of Gold
3rd: McAfee

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Ohio Derby?

*****

Picking a Promising Filly in the Monomoy Girl Stakes

-Keelerman — Fri, 13 Jun 2025 05:22:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Although it's not a graded stakes, Saturday's $175,000 Monomoy Girl S. at Churchill Downs might just be the best race of the weekend.

The six-horse field is packed with talent. The entrants include:

#1 Princess Aliyah (15-1), winner of the Valley Of The Vapors S. at Oaklawn Park.
#2 Immersive (4-5), the champion two-year-old filly of 2024.
#3 Anna's Promise (4-1), a graded stakes-placed Kentucky Oaks (G1) participant.
#4 Minnesota Munny (20-1), an allowance optional claiming winner.
#5 Running Away (9-2), a two-time stakes winner.
#6 Take Charge Milady (7-2), runner-up in the Ashland (G1) and a Kentucky Oaks starter.

Many bettors figure to focus their attention on Immersive, who compiled a perfect 4-for-4 record last year. The Godolphin homebred won her debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, then rattled off victories in the seven-furlong Spinaway (G1), 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades (G1), and 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1, showcasing the ability to handle a variety of distances.

But I'm not sure Immersive is unbeatable at a short price while making her belated three-year-old debut in the Monomoy Girl. There are a few possible chinks in her armor:

Immersive has yet to run especially fast on the Beyer Speed Figure scale. Her career-best number, earned in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, is only an 84.
She's returning from an unexpectedly long layoff. Immersive missed the winter and spring due to bone bruising.
Immersive rejoined the work tab in early May and has posted only half a dozen timed workouts in preparation for the Monomoy Girl. Only one was longer than half a mile. Saturday's race looks more like a prep for Saratoga prizes like the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1) than a goal in and of itself, so it's possible Immersive will be short of peak fitness for her comeback.

With these question marks surrounding Immersive, I'm going to try to beat her with Anna's Promise, who has run a bit faster on the Beyer scale.

Anna's Promise failed to win in five starts as a juvenile, but she's improved by leaps and bounds this year. During the winter at Gulfstream Park, she won a $50,000 maiden optional claimer and a $75,000 allowance optional claimer, showing pace-pressing speed in both races. Then she ran a good second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), pulling 10 1/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher and next-out winner Cassiar.

Most recently, Anna's Promise started as a 29-1 longshot in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She outran her odds, chasing a quick pace in third place before tiring down the homestretch to finish fifth in a 13-horse field.

The Kentucky Oaks was contested over a sealed, wet-fast track, and closers swept the trifecta. Anna's Promise held on well given her proximity to the early pace, and take note, pacesetter La Cara (who tired to finish ninth) subsequently bounced back to wire the Acorn (G1).

Anna's Promise figures to enjoy a more favorable setup in the Monomoy Girl. There's isn't a ton of speed in this small field; indeed, only Running Away is a true frontrunner. Anna's Promise should be able to press a modest pace in second place, leaving her with plenty left for the homestretch drive. If Immersive does prove short of her best off the long layoff, Anna's Promise can turn back the favorite and secure her first stakes win.

Another filly well worth supporting is #6 Take Charge Milady (7-2). She never fired when finishing 12th in the Kentucky Oaks, but she'd dealt with a quarter crack leading up to the race, and that may have compromised her chances.

Take Charge Milady had previously shown flashes of serious talent. In the Martha Washington S. at Oaklawn Park, she romped by 5 3/4 lengths over Quietside, who subsequently won the Honeybee (G3) and Fantasy (G2). And in the Ashland (G1), Take Charge Milady closed for second place against La Cara.

As a late runner, Take Charge Milady may find herself compromised by a modest pace in the Monomoy Girl. But a spot in the trifecta is surely within reach.

Running Away, who boasts wins in the Busanda S. and Horseshoe Indianapolis H. on her record this year, can round out the superfecta. She finished far behind Take Charge Milady when eighth in the Ashland, but she was beaten to the lead that day, the only time in six starts that Running Away hasn't made the lead. As the lone frontrunner in the Monomoy Girl field, Running Away shouldn't have any difficulty securing her preferred pacesetting position.

Selections

1st: Anna's Promise
2nd: Immersive
3rd: Take Charge Milady
4th: Running Away

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Monomoy Girl?

*****

Keeler Johnson’s Belmont Stakes 157 Selections

-Keelerman — Thu, 05 Jun 2025 19:03:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

A stellar renewal of the Belmont Stakes (G1) is taking place over a shortened 1 1/4-mile distance at Saratoga this Saturday.

The final leg of the Triple Crown features a rematch between the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby (G1): #2 Sovereignty (2-1), #7 Journalism (8-5), and #6 Baeza (4-1). There's a strong chance they'll run 1-2-3 again in the Belmont, though not necessarily in the same order.

The Kentucky Derby unfolded with fast fractions of :22.81, :46.23, and 1:10.78 over a sloppy track. The pace was beneficial to late runners, and indeed, the top four finishers were racing in the back half of the field after the opening six furlongs.

Of the top four, Journalism stayed closest to the pace. Even though he got boxed in along the rail early on and didn't appear entirely comfortably racing in sloppy kickback for the first time, he was never more than 8 1/4 lengths off the pace, whereas Baeza dropped as many as 11 1/2 lengths behind and Sovereignty had 13 1/2 lengths to make up at one point.

Despite receiving a less-than-perfect setup, Journalism launched a sweeping rally around the final turn to lead in early stretch. However, Sovereignty had closely followed Journalism's move and rolled past in the final furlong prevail by 1 1/2 lengths.

Since then, they've gone their separate ways. Sovereignty opted to skip the Preakness (G1), the second leg of the Triple Crown, and target the Belmont. Journalism, in contrast, took aim at the Preakness and enhanced his reputation with a tremendous performance.

In the Preakness, Journalism seemed a little sluggish early on. Jockey Umberto Rispoli guided the colt inside around the final turn, and Journalism responded with a fresh burst of speed. Unfortunately, a narrow opening between rivals began to close, and Journalism found himself in the middle of an intense bumping match with rivals to his inside and outside.

Somehow, Journalism battled his way through the pack, shrugged off the bumping, and gained five lengths through the final furlong on runaway leader Gosger to win the Preakness by half a length. Many horses would have given up after the bumping incident; for Journalism to find another gear and chase down a looser leader was spectacular.

It appears Journalism is none the worse for wear. On Sunday, he worked a quick half-mile at Saratoga in :47.54, which included a strong six-furlong gallop out in 1:12 4/5.

I expect Journalism to reproduce his best form in the Belmont, even while running for the third time in five weeks. Actually, I think there's a chance he'll run a career-best race. After getting tricky inside trips in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Journalism has drawn an outside post for the Belmont and should have no trouble working out a clean, unencumbered trip. That might be all he needs to turn the tables on Sovereignty and win his second U.S. classic.

I respect the chances of Sovereignty in the Belmont and expect him to run a strong race. He's thrived since stretching out around two turns last fall, launching late rallies to win the Street Sense (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2) before prepping for the Kentucky Derby with a game runner-up finish in the Florida Derby (G1).

If there's one concern for Sovereignty's chances, it's the fact only two obvious speed horses—#3 Rodriguez (6-1) and #5 Crudo (15-1)—have entered the Belmont, and the pace may be more relaxed than in the Kentucky Derby. This could lend an advantage to horses with more tactical speed (like Journalism and Baeza) and complicate Sovereignty's path to the winner's circle.

In fact, the Belmont pace scenario may allow Baeza to reverse the Kentucky Derby outcome and finish ahead of Sovereignty. The heralded half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch may have closed from far back in the Kentucky Derby, but he doesn't have to be a late runner.

To the contrary, Baeza pressed a sharp pace on his way to winning a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by 4 3/4 lengths, and in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he raced within a length of the lead for much of the journey before settling for second place by three-quarters of a length to Journalism.

Baeza is improving by leaps and bounds. In the Kentucky Derby, he was rallying as well as Sovereignty around the far turn, but ran up behind horses and had to briefly steady in traffic. This caused him to lose ground against Sovereignty. Once Baeza got clear, he closed better than anyone to finish third, 1 3/4 lengths behind Sovereignty and only a neck behind Journalism.

Since there isn't a ton of pace in the Belmont field, I expect Baeza to secure a cozy trip rating in third or fourth place during the early stages. From there, he looms as perhaps the main threat to upset Journalism.

Rodriguez, gate-to-wire winner of the Wood Memorial (G2), does his best work racing on the lead. When employing pace-pressing tactics in the San Felipe (G2), he faltered to finish 11 1/4 lengths behind Journalism in third place. If Rodriguez can shake loose on an easy lead, he's a danger to take this field a long way on the front end—maybe even all the way. But the presence of Crudo, a gate-to-wire winner of the Sir Barton S. three weeks ago, could potentially compromise Rodriguez's chances.

Stretch-running #1 Hill Road (10-1) took a nice step forward in the Peter Pan (G3), overcoming an illness-induced two-month layoff to rally and win by three-quarters of a length. He'll need another step forward to challenge the top three favorites in the Belmont, but he has every chance to come running for a top-four finish.

Selections

1st: Journalism
2nd: Baeza
3rd: Sovereignty
4th: Rodriguez

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Belmont Stakes?

*****

Wanting a Winner in the Blame Stakes

-Keelerman — Fri, 30 May 2025 00:56:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

If the quality of horses entered in Saturday's $275,000 Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs is any indication, the 1 1/8-mile dirt race for older horses will soon be upgraded to Grade 2 status. Frankly, there have been Grade 1 races with lesser fields than the stellar group slated to contest this year's Blame.

You know it's a deep race when 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner #4 Mystik Dan (4-1) is the third choice on the morning line. The son of Goldencents has gone winless in five starts since beating future champion Sierra Leone and eventual Saudi Cup (G1) winner Forever Young in a thrilling Run for the Roses, but he showed signs of returning to form in the 1 1/16-mile Lake Ouachita S. at Oaklawn Park last month, finishing second by a nose to 2023 Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Saudi Crown while pulling eight lengths clear of the rest.

Mystik Dan has scored two of his three career wins at Churchill Downs and should appreciate returning to Louisville's famous oval for the Blame. He exits a fast half-mile workout over this track last Saturday and warrants respect. But he hasn't run quite as fast on the Beyer Speed Figure scale as #7 Most Wanted (7-2), the second choice on the morning line and the horse to beat in my opinion.

Conditioned by two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, Most Wanted started his career on a hot streak last June. He won his first four starts in succession, including the Ellis Park Derby and Oklahoma Derby (G3). Then he ended his three-year-old year with a game runner-up finish in the Clark (G2), beaten less than one length by Grade 1 winner Rattle N Roll while pulling 3 1/4 lengths clear of future Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show.

Most Wanted is 0-for-2 this year, but he's been running better than ever. In the 1 1/16-mile Challenger (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, he finished second by 1 1/4 lengths against Skippylongstocking, who won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) last week. Most Wanted pulled 14 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure higher than Mystik Dan's career-best 101.

Then in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs, Most Wanted carved out the pace before staying on to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths against 2023 champion two-year-old male Fierceness. Most Wanted finished 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Mineshaft (G3) winner #6 Hall of Fame (8-1), who is back for the Blame, and he earned a career-best 105 Beyer.

Most Wanted's Alysheba performance was excellent. After setting fractions of :24.39 and :48.31, he blazed his third quarter-mile in :22.80 and his final five-sixteenths of a mile in :29.79 per the Equibase GPS result chart. In order to chase down Most Wanted, Fierceness had to clock 1 1/16 miles in the track-record time of 1:40.66.

In all six of his route races, Most Wanted has either set the pace or pressed the tempo in second place, so early speed is one of his biggest assets. That should be an advantage since his primary pace rival in the Blame, #5 Best Actor (30-1), is expected to scratch and run in a Sunday allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs per Marcus Hersh of the Daily Racing Form.

Most Wanted is also entered in the Sunday allowance optional claimer, and according to Hersh, trainer Brad Cox is uncertain whether Most Wanted will run there or in the Blame. If Most Wanted opts for Sunday's easier spot, I'll view him as practically a lock to win. But I'm optimistic he'll stay in Saturday's graded stakes instead and conquer all comers.

My second choice is Hall of Fame, who finished 2 3/4 lengths behind Most Wanted in the Alysheba. He didn't appear entirely comfortable racing in a pocket along the inside, but nevertheless churned on to hold third place by 2 1/2 lengths over Santa Anita H. (G1) winner Locked.

Hall of Fame's previous form was even better. Two starts back he utilized a clear pace-tracking trip to finish second in the New Orleans Classic (G2), coming home two lengths ahead of Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone while earning a 106 Beyer. And three starts back, he won the Mineshaft (G3) by a head over Komorebino Omoide, who has since won the Steve Sexton Mile (G3).

If Hall of Fame can avoid getting buried in traffic again in the Blame, I think he'll produce an effort more in line with his New Orleans try and take home second place in the Blame.

I'm a little less keen to support #9 Post Time (3-1), the morning-line favorite in the Blame. While he's performed admirably at the Grade 1 level, finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), second in the Metropolitan H. (G1), and third in the Whitney (G1), all five of his stakes wins have come in one-turn races over one mile or less, including a quartet of seven-furlong sprints. I wonder if 1 1/8 miles is bit farther than Post Time really wants to run.

Selections

1st: Most Wanted
2nd: Hall of Fame
3rd: Mystik Dan

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Blame?

*****

Looking for a Longshot in the Hollywood Gold Cup

-Keelerman — Fri, 23 May 2025 04:45:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Every year, California hosts a trio of major 1 1/4-mile dirt races: the Santa Anita H. (G1), the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2), and the Pacific Classic (G1). They're hard races to win, but trainer John Sadler makes the task look easy.

Sadler's recent record in these three races is impressive. Since 2015, he's won the Santa Anita H. three times with Accelerate (2018), Gift Box (2019), and Combatant (2020), the Hollywood Gold Cup twice with Hard Aces (2015) and Accelerate (2018), and the Pacific Classic four times with Accelerate (2018), Higher Power (2019), Tripoli (2021), and Flightline (2022).

Also, in the last five years Sadler has recorded runner-up finishes in the Pacific Classic with Full Serrano (2024), the Hollywood Gold Cup with Higher Power (2020), and the Santa Anita H. with Subsanador (2024). During the same timeframe, according to DRF Formulator, Sadler has compiled an excellent 4-for-15 (27%) record in all 1 1/4-mile dirt races.

With all of these statistics in mind, I believe Sadler's #2 Packs a Wahlop is worth betting in Monday's running of the $200,000 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita.

Seven horses have turned out for the historic race, which carried Grade 1 status as recently as 2023. The expected favorite is #5 Skippylongstocking, an East Coast raider who has earned over $3.5 million despite the fact he's never won a Grade 1 race. He's placed several times at the highest level—including in such prestigious prizes as the Belmont (G1), Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), and Pegasus World Cup (G1)—but Grade 2 and Grade 3 stakes have proven more manageable for Skippylongstocking, and he's won eight of them through the years.

I believe Skippylongstocking will run a competitive race in the Hollywood Gold Cup. He's meeting a relatively easy field and should be able to work out his preferred trip racing on or near the lead. But he exits a subpar third-place finish in the Oaklawn H. (G2), and it's worth wondering if 1 1/4 miles is a bit beyond Skippylongstocking's best distance. It's been nearly three years since Skippylongstocking finished a tiring third in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (his most recent start beyond 1 1/8 miles), and he often loses ground from the eighth pole to the finish line.

For these reasons, Packs a Wahlop is an intriguing alternative. The son of Creative Cause has spent the vast majority of his career competing on turf, most notably winning the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) and Zuma Beach (G3) as a two-year-old in 2022.

Packs a Wahlop hasn't won since the Zuma Beach, and he enters the Hollywood Gold Cup off 16 straight defeats. But he's improved since being claimed in December by Sadler. Last time out, he tracked a runaway leader in the 1 1/4-mile Charles Whittingham (G2) before battling down the homestretch to finish second by a head. It doesn't appear 1 1/4 miles is an obstacle for Packs a Wahlop, and his early speed should allow him to secure a forward trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and avoid dirt kickback.

Now granted, Packs a Wahlop was soundly beaten in his lone dirt start to date, finishing fourth by 24 lengths in the 2023 Sham (G3) at Santa Anita. But there are two points worth noting. One, Packs a Wahlop was interfered with when a rival pulled up, and since he had no chance at a better finish he was basically eased to the finish line, exaggerating his margin of defeat. Two, Packs a Wahlop's turf form before and after the Sham wasn't much better, so it's hard to attribute his Sham defeat to a disdain for dirt.

Sadler has already demonstrated he can win a major 1 1/4-mile dirt race with an unheralded turf runner. Higher Power's 2019 Pacific Classic triumph followed a win in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer and a runner-up effort in the Wickerr S., both racing one mile on turf. Take note, Brisnet statistics indicate Sadler wins at a lofty 26% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt.

It helps that Packs a Wahlop's sire, Creative Cause, was a versatile runner who won the Norfolk (G1) on dirt and the Best Pal (G2) on synthetic. Some of Creative Cause's most accomplished progeny have shown similar surface versatility; King Cause and Hush of a Storm have won stakes on turf and synthetic, while My Boy Jack—the fifth-place finisher in the 2018 Kentucky Derby—won stakes on dirt and turf. And for what it's worth, Creative Cause is best known for siring the tried-and-true dirt horse Pavel, winner of the Stephen Foster H. (G1) and a top-three finisher in the Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) racing 1 1/4 miles on dirt.

For all these reasons, Packs a Wahlop is my choice to upset the Hollywood Gold Cup. Skippylongstocking can take second place over #4 Extensive, an improving son of City of Light who enters off back-to-back maiden special weight and $50,000 allowance optional claiming wins at Santa Anita.

2025 Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) selections:

1st: #2 Packs a Wahlop
2nd: #5 Skippylongstocking
3rd: #4 Extensive

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Hollywood Gold Cup?

*****

Keeler Johnson’s Preakness Stakes 150 Selections

-Keelerman — Tue, 13 May 2025 17:04:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Although Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sovereignty is skipping Saturday's 150th running of the $2 million Preakness (G1) at Pimlico, the second leg of the Triple Crown has nevertheless drawn a quality field.

A couple of proven Grade 1 winners have joined the nine-horse lineup, along with a bevy of promising up-and-comers. You can make a case for anyone to challenge for a top-three finish, but as far as win potential goes, I'm confident #2 Journalism (8-5) ranks a cut above the rest.

Granted, I had equal confidence in Journalism's ability to win the Kentucky Derby, and that proved misplaced since he was beaten to second place at Churchill Downs. But I believe Journalism ran an admirable race under challenging circumstances in the Kentucky Derby.

Making his first start over a sloppy track, Journalism ran into plenty of trouble during the opening three furlongs. He was bumped at the start, and continued to bump with rivals down the stretch and into the first turn. He was forced into a tight spot along the inside and started tossing his head at one point, perhaps in reaction to kickback or perhaps because of the tight quarters—it's difficult to tell watching the replay.

In any case, Journalism didn't give up. Heading down the backstretch, he found himself racing alone and was able to steer outside for room. He launched a menacing rally around the far turn and briefly took over the lead in the homestretch before Sovereignty ran him down by 1 1/2 lengths.

This was an excellent effort considering Journalism raced as many as 5 1/4 lengths closer to hot pace fractions of :22.81, :46.23, and 1:10.78 than Sovereignty did. Even in defeat, he earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure matching the number he received for his Santa Anita Derby (G1) triumph.

Facing a much smaller field in the Preakness, Journalism figures to receive a cleaner trip. He remains one of the best three-year-olds in training, and with Sovereignty skipping the Preakness, Journalism has a perfect opportunity to secure a classic win of his own. He's my choice to win.

For second place, I'm keen to support #8 Clever Again (5-1). The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has gone 2-for-2 since returning from a long layoff and stretching out around two turns. First he wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park by 3 1/4 lengths, and then he led all the way to take Oaklawn's one-mile Hot Springs S. by four lengths.

Clever Again's Hot Springs performance was excellent. He set a sharp pace and kicked clear down the homestretch to defeat Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up Gaming by four lengths. Gaming then flattered that form by returning to finish third by 3 1/2 lengths in a deep renewal of the Pat Day Mile (G2) on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs.

Clever Again posted a flashy 101 Beyer in the Hot Springs, and his pedigree suggests there's a chance he'll relish stretching out over 1 3/16 miles in the Preakness. He'll have to reckon with a few other pace players at Pimlico, but Clever Again strikes me as a talented colt with plenty of upside for improvement. If anyone can upset Journalism, it might be Clever Again.

#1 Goal Oriented (6-1) is another horse who figures to race forwardly, especially after drawing the rail. He's gone 2-for-2 under the care of eight-time Preakness-winning trainer Bob Baffert, most recently wiring a 1 1/6-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The question is, can he handle stepping up sharply in class and distance while running back in just two weeks?

I actually prefer the chances of #6 River Thames (9-2) to crack the top three. He has tactical speed, but has thus far proven more tractable than Goal Oriented and Clever Again, so he ought to work out a cozy trip tracking the pace in third or fourth position.

River Thames dominated his first two starts before performing well in a couple of tough Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers. In the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2), he led in midstretch before settling for second place by a neck against Sovereignty. Then in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass (G1), he fought gallantly between rivals down the homestretch to finish third by three-quarters of a length. The top two finishers, Burnham Square and East Avenue, performed decently when finishing sixth and eighth in the Kentucky Derby.

I do question whether 1 3/16 miles is a suitable distance for River Thames; his pedigree suggests shorter trips might be preferable. But his talent may compensate sufficiently to land a spot in the Preakness trifecta.

#7 Sandman (4-1) started as the second choice in the Kentucky Derby, but after dropping back to 18th place for the first six furlongs, he rallied only mildly to finish seventh by 12 1/2 lengths. It's a little surprising that he didn't close with more interest, since the quick pace resulted in late runners sweeping the Kentucky Derby superfecta. Perhaps Sandman didn't care for racing over a sloppy track, but if that's the case, he could be in trouble at Pimlico—there's rain in the forecast for Baltimore this week, so there's a chance he'll encounter sloppy footing again.

Sloppy or not, I'm inclined to lean against Sandman since his rallying triumph in the Arkansas Derby (G1) two starts back was aided by a pace meltdown. I don't anticipate the Preakness unfolding at a blazing tempo, so Sandman will have to avoid falling too far off the pace if he wants to close for better than third or fourth place.

#9 Gosger (20-1) is an improving longshot fresh off a two-length win in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, but Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings suggest a spot in the superfecta may be the ceiling for his potential. The same can be said of #5 Pay Billy (20-1), winner of the Federico Tesio S. and Private Terms S. at Laurel Park. And I question whether the form of UAE Derby (G2) runner-up #4 Heart of Honor (12-1) will stack up well at Pimlico, since UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona finished last in the Kentucky Derby.

Rounding out the Preakness field is #3 American Promise (15-1), an intriguing longshot conditioned by seven-time Preakness-winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas. American Promise raced close to the hot pace in the Kentucky Derby and made a bid between rivals before tiring to finish 16th.

Two starts back, American Promise faced easier competition in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby and employed pace-pressing tactics to obliterate his rivals by 7 3/4 lengths. He's not the most consistent horse in training, but every now and then American Promise steps up and fires a big shot—usually when he finds a comfortable position on or near the lead. He may not get the right setup while facing Goal Oriented and Clever Again in the Preakness, but I wouldn't dismiss American Promise as a superfecta contender. His best effort is good enough to factor here.

Selections

1st: Journalism
2nd: Clever Again
3rd: River Thames
4th: Sandman

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Preakness?

*****

Congratulations to Arliss II on winning the 2025 Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge! Check out the final results here.

Picking a Speed Horse in the Peter Pan

-Keelerman — Fri, 09 May 2025 05:18:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The Saturday in between the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) presents an opportunity for possible Belmont (G1) contenders to shine in the $200,000 Peter Pan (G3) at Aqueduct's "Belmont at the Big A" meeting.

The 1 1/8-mile race for three-year-olds turns out a Belmont winner every once in a while. Examples from the last dozen years include Tonalist (2014), Sir Winston (2019), and Arcangelo (2023).

This year's Peter Pan has drawn a 10-horse field containing quite a bit of talent and potential. Five of the entrants are Road to the Kentucky Derby alumni, including #8 Captain Cook (2-1), the slight morning-line favorite and the horse to beat in my opinion.

Captain Cook first caught eyes when he employed pace-pressing tactics to smash a seven-furlong maiden special weight over a sloppy track at Aqueduct by 9 1/4 lengths. He subsequently demonstrated strong form over a dry track when stretching out over 1 1/8 miles in Aqueduct's Withers S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, tracking the pace in third place before taking over to score by 2 1/4 lengths.

That effort yielded a 94 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest number in the Peter Pan field. And guess who owns the second-highest number? It's also Captain Cook. In the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, his most recent start, Captain Cook pressed the pace in second place before weakening in the final furlong to finish fourth by 6 3/4 lengths against high-profile Preakness (G1) contender Rodriguez. The Wood Memorial elapsed in the fast time of 1:48.15, and even in defeat Captain Cook earned a 91 Beyer.

There isn't much pace entered in the Peter Pan field, so Captain Cook has every chance to work out a picture-perfect trip setting a slow tempo. Securing an uncontested lead should leave Captain Cook with plenty in the tank to kick on down the homestretch and win comfortably. He's my choice to win.

#4 Hill Road (5-2) is another logical contender. Formerly based in Ireland, the son of Quality Road made his dirt and U.S. debut in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall. After settling at the back of a 10-horse field, Hill Road closed ground to finish third by 4 3/4 lengths against champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull.

Hill Road likely wasn't cranked for a peak performance when making his 2025 debut in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but even still he rallied into strong closing fractions to finish third by 6 1/4 lengths against future Kentucky Derby fifth-place finisher Owen Almighty.

Unfortunately, a fever caused Hill Road to miss an intended start in the Wood Memorial. He went three weeks between workouts, and while he's posted trio of timed workouts since getting back on the work tab, the Peter Pan may prove to be more of a prep race for the Belmont than a goal in and of itself.

That's one reason why I believe #6 Uncaged (8-1) can get involved for a top-two finish at more enticing odds. The beautifully bred son of Curlin out of the Pioneerof the Nile mare Dark Nile caught my attention when he rallied to win his debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga last summer. The fact Uncaged won sprinting as a juvenile is noteworthy since he's bred top and bottom to shine running long at ages three and older.

Uncaged went to the sidelines after his debut and started 2025 with a fourth-place finish in a six-furlong $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. But he improved when stretching over one mile for his second start of the season. In a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct, Uncaged closed from the back of a six-horse field to score by 1 3/4 lengths.

Uncaged has yet to run especially fast on the Beyer scale, but he's also yet to race around two turns. The Peter Pan affords him an opportunity to stretch out around two turns for the first time, and his pedigree suggests he'll relish the change in configuration. Even if a slow pace unfolds in the Peter Pan, I expect Uncaged to make his presence felt down the homestretch.

Candidates to finish in the Peter Pan superfecta include #1 Vassimo (5-1), who finished fourth in the Risen Star (G2) and sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby; #3 Surfside Moon (8-1), runner-up to Captain Cook in the Withers; #5 McAfee (8-1), the fifth-place finisher from the Wood Memorial; and #10 Lordship (12-1), a stoutly bred debut winner racing one mile and 40 yards at Tampa Bay Downs.

Selections

1st: Captain Cook
2nd: Uncaged
3rd: Hill Road
4th: Vassimo

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Peter Pan?

*****

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Keeler Johnson’s Kentucky Derby 151 Selections

-Keelerman — Thu, 01 May 2025 15:43:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs is almost here. Months of prep races have produced a strong field for Saturday's 151st edition of the "Run for the Roses."

This is my 12th year handicapping the Kentucky Derby on Unlocking Winners. My Derby record stands at 11-4-1-0 (36%); I would have had a fifth winner if Maximum Security hadn't been disqualified for causing interference in 2019.

I'm optimistic I'll catch my fifth winner in 2025:

Top Choice

#8 Journalism (3-1)

I find it difficult to make a case against Journalism as the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby. The beautifully bred son of Curlin out of Mopotism has gone 4-for-4 since stretching out around two turns (earning triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings in all four of those starts), and along the way he's conquered tough competition in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1).

In the San Felipe, Journalism ran fast on the clock, earning a powerful 108 Beyer Speed Figure that tops the Kentucky Derby field. In the Santa Anita Derby, he was bumped and forced to steady at a pivotal moment around the far turn, but shrugged off the incident to re-rally and prevail by three-quarters of a length with a 102 Beyer.

Journalism is the fastest horse on paper and has drawn well in post 8, which should allow him to settle into a perfect midfield position behind the early speed horses while saving some ground. From there, Journalism can wind up his relentless drive around the final turn and down the homestretch to win convincingly. It's been years since I've felt this confident that a horse will win the Kentucky Derby.

Secondary Contenders

In rough order of preference, the following seven horses are ones I intend to play underneath Journalism in vertical exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta:

#18 Sovereignty (5-1)

Sovereignty first emerged as a serious Kentucky Derby contender in October 2024, when he dominated the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs by five lengths over Tiztastic and Sandman. He kicked off 2025 with a rallying triumph in the Fountain of Youth (G2), then finished second in the Florida Derby (G1) off a relatively light workout regimen. Sovereignty closed the final three furlongs of the Florida Derby in a sharp :37.21 to finish only 1 1/4 lengths behind the victorious Tappan Street, and he's trained sharply since then, suggesting he's sitting on a big performance in the Kentucky Derby.

#7 Luxor Cafe (15-1)

Luxor Cafe could be any sort of star after rattling off four straight wins in Japan. He finished fast over a slow track to dominate the Fukuryu S. by five lengths, and his acceleration in that 1,800-meter contest was visually spectacular. Luxor Cafe is one of few horses I can envision upsetting Journalism in this Kentucky Derby, because we don't yet know how he stacks up against the best American three-year-olds, and there's a chance this son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah will stack up quite well.

#4 Rodriguez (12-1)

Rodriguez is dangerous when allowed to set the pace. Racing without blinkers for the first time in the Wood Memorial (G2), he set a comfortable pace before rocketing his final three furlongs in :36.95 to draw clear and win by 3 1/2 lengths. There's plenty of talent here, but consistency isn't necessarily a strong suit for Rodriguez-two starts back, he was beaten to the lead in the San Felipe (G2) and tired to finish third, 11 1/4 lengths behind Journalism. The break will be key for Rodriguez-if he's able to find a comfortable position on or near the lead, I think he'll be formidable in the Churchill Downs homestretch.

#3 Final Gambit (30-1)

Final Gambit has never run on dirt, and that's a little concerning since he's drawn an inside post and is bound to encounter some dirt kickback early on. But this deep-closing colt has a serious finishing kick, as he demonstrated when sprinting the final three furlongs of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in a blazing :36.21 to romp by 3 1/2 lengths. He's trained well on dirt at Churchill Downs, and I expect him to be closing ground down the Kentucky Derby homestretch. It's just a question of whether he'll drop too far back early on to catch up late.

#21 Baeza (12-1)

The rapidly improving Baeza finished second by three-quarters of a length to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby despite racing greenly. This half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage has lots of talent and potential, but he feels like a work in progress whose best efforts will come sometime down the road. That doesn't mean Baeza can't vie for a top-four finish in the Kentucky Derby, though doing so from post 20 (if he draws in off the also-eligible list) could be tricky.

#1 Citizen Bull (20-1)

Six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert felt Citizen Bull was short of peak fitness when finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, so Baffert has sent out the son of Into Mischief to record four fast workouts leading up to the Kentucky Derby, including seven furlongs in 1:24 1/5 at Santa Anita and five furlongs in a bullet :58 2/5 at Churchill Downs. Two starts back, Citizen Bull led all the way to beat Rodriguez by 3 3/4 lengths in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), and a return to that level of form could make the reigning champion two-year-old male a dangerous Kentucky Derby longshot. If Citizen Bull is able to make the lead from post 1 (a task easier said than done), he may take this field a surprisingly long way on the front end.

#10 Grande (20-1)

Grande put up a gallant fight against Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial. Despite racing wide around both turns, he closed his final three furlongs in a sharp :37.24 to finish second by 3 1/2 lengths. The son of Curlin is progressing in the right direction and has the pedigree to relish stretching out over 1 1/4 miles, so he's eligible to vie for a top-four finish if he can save some ground under three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez.

Possible Contenders

In order of post positions, these six horses are ones I will consider including in deep vertical exotic wagers. However, for various reasons I'm less confident in these horses and I don't anticipate betting on outcomes where more than one of them finishes in the top four:

#9 Burnham Square (12-1)

Burnham Square has beaten some quality horses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, including Florida Derby (G1) winner Tappan Street, but he benefited from a sharply decelerating pace when rallying to win the Blue Grass (G1) by a nose over a compact field.

#11 Flying Mohawk (30-1)

Flying Mohawk showed nice finishing speed in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, finishing second to Final Gambit while clocking his final three-eighths of a mile in :37.22. There's at least an outside chance Flying Mohawk will run a giant race while switching to dirt, but his pedigree is geared strongly toward success on dirt and synthetic, so the surface switch is a question mark for this son of Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner Karakontie.

#14 Tiztastic (20-1)

Tiztastic stormed home from off the pace to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) by 2 1/4 lengths, but much like Burnham Square in the Blue Grass, he benefited from a fast early/slow late race shape. The Louisiana Derby unfolded at a blazing tempo favorable to late runners, and I'm not sure how much room Tiztastic has for improvement in the Kentucky Derby.

#16 Coal Battle (30-1)

Coal Battle defeated future Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman (see below) and Tiztastic when taking the Rebel (G2) two starts back, so we know he has serious talent. But he moved too soon into a thoroughly destructive pace in the Arkansas Derby, ultimately tiring to finish third by seven lengths against Sandman. A more patient trip in the Kentucky Derby should help Coal Battle maximize his performance, but I wonder if 1 1/4 miles is little too far for this speedily bred son of Coal Front.

#17 Sandman (6-1)

After recording top-three finishers in the Street Sense (G3), Southwest (G3), and Rebel (G2), Sandman broke through with a deep-closing 2 1/2-length triumph in the Arkansas Derby. But the blazing early pace gave Sandman a perfect setup, and he raced greenly in response to the whip down the homestretch. A 20-horse Kentucky Derby field isn't easy to navigate for deep closers, and I wonder if Sandman will leave himself with too much to do in the final quarter-mile of the Kentucky Derby.

#19 Chunk of Gold (30-1)

Chunk of Gold raced significantly closer to the blazing Louisiana Derby pace than eventual winner Tiztastic, but even still he was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths in a solid performance. He previously ran second in a lightning fast edition of the Risen Star (G2), so I can envision a scenario in which Chunk of Gold settles midfield or so in the Kentucky Derby before closing for a spot in the superfecta. But he may need a favorite or two to misfire.

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2025 Kentucky Derby: 3 Longshots to Consider

-Keelerman — Fri, 25 Apr 2025 01:29:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) is barely more than one week away. Post positions will be drawn on Saturday, after which we can start finalizing our betting strategies.

Journalism is expected to start as a clear favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and I'm confident he'll prevail on the first Saturday in May. But three double-digit longshots have also caught my eye, and I intend to use them in exotic wagers.

1. Citizen Bull

If you draw a line through Citizen Bull's disappointing fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), it's hard to knock his credentials.

The champion two-year-old male of 2024 posted gate-to-wire wins in the American Pharoah (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, counting Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Gaming and future Sunland Park Derby hero Getaway Car among his beaten rivals. And Citizen Bull started 2025 on a winning note, wiring the Robert B. Lewis (G3) by 3 3/4 lengths over future Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez.

Now granted, the Santa Anita Derby was a big step backward for Citizen Bull. He led with three furlongs remaining, but gave way steadily down the homestretch to finish 9 3/4 lengths behind the winner.

But perhaps we can look at Citizen Bull's performance in a different light:

The Santa Anita Derby was a tough race. The winner, Journalism, posted a 102 Beyer Speed Figure (the highest number from any of the final-round preps) and is the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
Citizen Bull entered the Santa Anita Derby off a two-month layoff. Trainer Bob Baffert has been saying since last year that Citizen Bull is a heavy horse who benefits from racing, and Citizen Bull may have been short of peak fitness for the Santa Anita Derby.

Fitness shouldn't be an issue for the Kentucky Derby. Citizen Bull got back on the work tab just eight days after the Santa Anita Derby and has worked every five days since then, going half a mile in :47 3/5, six furlongs in 1:11 4/5, and seven furlongs in 1:24 1/5.

Furthermore, the Daily Racing Form reports Citizen Bull will race without blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, a change that could help Citizen Bull work out a favorable trip settling behind the expected fast pace at Churchill Downs.

There's a good chance Citizen Bull will start around 20-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, so if you're willing to forgive his Santa Anita Derby misfire, you'll get a good price on a talented horse with many positives in his corner.

2. Final Gambit

Some bettors may hesitate to support Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Final Gambit because he's never run on dirt. In my opinion, Final Gambit's lack of dirt experience makes him more intriguing as a longshot because switching surfaces gives him a clearer path to significant improvement than other longshots in the Derby field.

I liked Final Gambit's performance in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. The early pace wasn't overly slow—22.97, :47.91, and 1:12.84—yet Final Gambit blazed his final three furlongs in :36.21 and his final furlong in :11.91 to close from 8 3/4 lengths back and win by 3 1/2 lengths.

In the years since Turfway Park switched from Polytrack to Tapeta in time for the 2021 Jeff Ruby, the race has had better luck producing serious Kentucky Derby contenders. In 2022, Rich Strike clocked the final three furlongs of the Jeff Ruby in :36.89 before upsetting the Kentucky Derby at 80-1. In 2023, Two Phil's finished the Jeff Ruby in :36.93 before running a game second in the Kentucky Derby.

As a son of Not This Time out of a mare by Tapit, Final Gambit has the pedigree to shine while switching to dirt. Don't leave this improving colt off your tickets.

3. Grande

Rodriguez is receiving well-deserved acclaim for his gate-to-wire, 3 1/2-length romp in a fast edition of the Wood Memorial. But runner-up Grande also deserves respect for a strong showing.

Coming off maiden and allowance victories running long at Gulfstream Park, Grande performed well with a tricky trip in the Wood Memorial. He was caught very wide around the first turn, but steadily advanced through the middle of the race, drawing within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead with three furlongs remaining. In doing so, he ran his second and third quarter-miles in :23.85 and :23.98.

Even after making this big middle move, Grande managed to run his final three furlongs in a sharp :37.24 to finish second, 3 1/2 lengths behind Rodriguez. He lost ground to Rodriguez at the top of the stretch, but gained back half a length through the final furlong. Considering Grande raced wide around the second turn as well, this was an admirable performance.

Grande pressed the early pace in both of his victories, but in the Wood Memorial he showed he can be effective as a closer. If he gets a faster pace to work with in the Kentucky Derby, I can envision Grande passing a lot of horses down the homestretch to snatch a top-four finish at 15-1 or even 20-1 odds.

Now it's your turn! Which longshots do you like in the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

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2025 Kentucky Derby: How Fast a Pace Will Unfold?

-Keelerman — Thu, 17 Apr 2025 15:58:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The Road to the Kentucky Derby is complete, and the field is coming into focus for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). It's time to ponder an annual handicapping question: how fast a pace will unfold in the Run for the Roses?

As the old saying goes, pace makes the race, and that's certainly the case in the Kentucky Derby. A fast pace often leads to a stretch-running winner (like 80-1 longshot Rich Strike in 2022), while a modest or slow tempo can favor horses racing up front.

Judging from the prospective entries for this year's Kentucky Derby, the pace is going to be blazing.

There are plenty of speed horses and proven pacesetters taking aim at the Derby, and here's the problem: many have run well below form when beaten to the early lead.

Need examples? Here you go:

East Avenue is brilliant when racing on the lead. He won his debut by eight lengths, smashed the Breeders' Futurity (G1) by 5 1/4 lengths, and finished second by a nose in the Blue Grass (G1). But when he was beaten to the lead in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Risen Star (G2), he finished ninth and tenth by double-digit margins.
Rodriguez clocked a fast final time when wiring the Wood Memorial (G2) by 3 1/2 lengths. He earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, slightly better than the 100 he posted when wiring a Santa Anita maiden special weight by seven lengths. In between, Rodriguez was beaten to the front when second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and third in the San Felipe (G2), races in which he earned far lower Beyers of 91 and 90.
Citizen Bull earned champion two-year-old male honors after wiring the American Pharoah (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He kicked off 2025 with a gate-to-wire score over Rodriguez in the Robert B. Lewis. But he was beaten to the lead in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and although he later got to the front via a midrace duel, Citizen Bull tired in the homestretch to finish fourth by 9 3/4 lengths.
Owen Almighty has crossed the wire first in two stakes: the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and the Pasco S. In both races, he led at every call. The rating tactics he employed when second in the Sam F. Davis S. and sixth in the Blue Grass weren't as successful.
American Promise runs best when allowed to set or press the pace. Four starts back, he wired a fast Oaklawn Park maiden special weight over future Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up Publisher, earning a 95 Beyer. He then regressed to Beyers in the 80s when rating during the early stages of the Southwest (G3) and Risen Star (G2), two races in which he finished off the board. Returning to forwardly placed tactics for the Virginia Derby worked wonders—he pressed the pace on his way to victory by 7 3/4 lengths with a 95 Beyer.
Madaket Road isn't necessarily a need-the-lead type; he placed in the Bob Hope (G3) and Robert B. Lewis after rating off the pace in small fields. But he's dashed to the lead in his last two starts, finishing second in the Rebel (G2) and fourth in the Florida Derby (G1), so Madaket Road is another with enough speed to influence the Kentucky Derby pace.
Admire Daytona set the pace or vied for the lead throughout the UAE Derby (G2), refusing to give up his position along the inside. He also broke his maiden in Japan with forwardly placed tactics. He wasn't nearly as effective after falling off the pace in the Hyacinth S. on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby; he could only rally mildly to finish fourth.
Neoequos isn't in the Kentucky Derby field yet, but if defections allow him to start, he's yet another prospective pace player. Both of his wins have come while setting or pressing the pace, and he also ran well with pacesetting tactics to finish third in the Fountain of Youth (G2).

Any way you slice it, that's a lot of speed. In particular, horses like East Avenue, Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, Owen Almighty, and American Promise figure to ensure a fast pace since they've run meaningfully better when able to race up front, and rating in the Kentucky Derby could be risky. One or more figure to sprint hard in search of the early lead, and the result could be an opening quarter-mile in :22-and-change, a swift half-mile in :45-and-change, and six furlongs in 1:10-and-change.

A fast pace would suit the many talented closers taking aim at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism and Florida Derby (G1) victor Tappan Street figure to settle in behind the leaders and take first aim turning for home, since they have tactical speed combined with tractability. Then, down the homestretch, deep closers like Blue Grass winner Burnham Square, Arkansas Derby (G1) hero Sandman, Louisiana Derby (G2) conqueror Tiztastic, Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty, and even Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Final Gambit will aim to make their presence felt.

It's possible a talented speed horse—perhaps Rodriguez—will hang around for a top-three finish even after partaking in a fast pace. But overall, I expect I'll be favoring the chances of late runners in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Now it's your turn! How do you envision the Kentucky Derby pace unfolding?

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Backing an 8-1 Price Horse in the Lexington

-Keelerman — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 19:45:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Seven months after it began, the 2024-2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby concludes on Saturday with the running of the $400,000 Lexington (G3) at Keeneland.

The 1 1/16-mile race is unlikely to produce a Kentucky Derby (G1) starter, but we could certainly see a Preakness (G1) contender or two emerge from this promising field.

Two Lexington entrants—#4 Rolando (6-1) and #9 Touchy (8-1)—seem destined to scratch after competing in Keeneland's Lafayette S. on Monday. If that's the case, we'll be left with seven starters.

#7 Praetor (2-1) is the morning-line favorite, and it's hard to knock his credentials. He looked like a serious Kentucky Derby contender last fall, when he led all the way to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct by a neck over Sovereignty, who has since finished first in the Street Sense (G3), first in the Fountain of Youth (G2), and second in the Florida Derby (G1).

Unfortunately, Praetor went to the sidelines following that victory and didn't return to serious training until late January. He returned to the races on March 9 in a one-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park, in which he pressed a solid pace before drawing clear to win by 7 1/2 lengths.

I won't be surprised if Praetor wins the Lexington, but there may be some chinks in his armor. For one, his allowance win was a regression from a Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed rating standpoint. For another, the Lexington marks his two-turn debut.

Lastly, there's a chance Praetor will get caught up in an early speed duel with #6 Gosger (7-2). The latter withstood a sharp duel to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park last month, Both of Gosger's pace rivals faded to finish out of the trifecta, so Gosger seems unlikely to conceded the early Lexington lead to Praetor, especially since he's drawn inside of Praetor.

What I'm building toward is the notion that #8 Hypnus (6-1) can win the Lexington. Unlike many of the Lexington entrants, Hypnus is dropping in class out of tough Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers.

Two starts back, Hypnus rallied through some traffic to finish seventh in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park. That turned out to be a tough race; third-place finisher Sandman returned to win the Arkansas Derby (G1), while fifth-place runner Tiztastic came back to win the Louisiana Derby (G2).

Speaking of the Louisiana Derby, Hypnus took a shot at winning the 1 3/16-mile race at Fair Grounds, but failed to factor while finishing seventh by 8 1/2 lengths. But he's bounced back with a bullet half-mile over a muddy track at Churchill Downs in :47 1/5, suggesting he's ready to roll in the Lexington.

In both the Rebel and the Louisiana Derby, Hypnus dropped farther off the early pace than he did in his Jan. 18 debut racing 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park, in which he rallied from just shy of midfield to win by 2 1/2 lengths with a promising 85 Beyer Speed Figure. Hypnus is adding blinkers for the Lexington, and it's possible the addition of headgear will sharpen his early speed and leave him with less ground to close down the homestretch.

If that proves to be the case, I believe Hypnus will be perfectly positioned to chase down Gosger and Praetor in the Lexington, especially if those two set a quick pace. It wouldn't be the first time trainer Kenny McPeek has won the Lexington with a horse dropping in class off short rest. In 2017, McPeek sent out Senior Investment to nab the Lexington only two weeks after finishing sixth by 5 3/4 lengths in the Louisiana Derby. For all these reasons, Hypnus is my top choice to prevail this Saturday.

#3 Bullard (9-2) is bound to draw some support after rallying to finish first in the Bob Hope (G3) and second in the San Vicente (G2) sprinting seven furlongs. But he benefited from a blazing pace in the Bob Hope, and I think there's a chance Bullard is more of a stretch-running sprinter than a two-turn router.

One double-digit longshot I recommend considering is #2 Bracket Buster (20-1). While he's yet to run particularly fast on the Beyer Speed Figure or Brisnet Speed rating scales, he hasn't raced since October and is eligible to improve with maturity. He was last seen finishing fifth behind Sovereignty, Tiztastic, and Sandman in the Street Sense, and the Lexington looks like a more manageable assignment.

Selections

1st: Hypnus
2nd: Praetor
3rd: Gosger
4th: Bracket Buster

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Lexington?

*****

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Giving a Chance to McPatrick in the Blue Grass

-Keelerman — Wed, 02 Apr 2025 18:47:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Arguably the most wide-open Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier taking place this Saturday (barring a postponement due to heavy rain) is the $1.25 million Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.

The seven-horse field is small in size, but quality runs deep. Four of the entrants have won Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers, including two who have scored Grade 1 wins. The other three entrants have all earned Kentucky Derby qualification points.

Indicating the competitive nature of the Blue Grass, the five favorites are listed at odds between 5-2 and 9-2 on the morning line. I think a case can be made for any of them to visit the winner's circle.

I anticipate the Blue Grass will unfold at an honest pace. #5 East Avenue (3-1) dominated his first two starts when employing pacesetting tactics, most notably taking Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity (G1) while benefitting from a rail-biased track. He's since run poorly when stumbling at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and when beaten to the lead in a fast-paced Risen Star (G2), finishing off the board in both races.

East Avenue enters the Blue Grass off fast workouts and is slated to wear blinkers for the first time, so I expect he'll gun for early lead. That could put him at odds with #4 Owen Almighty (3-1), who exits a gate-to-wire 3 1/2-length romp in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). While Owen Almighty set a modest pace in the Tampa Bay Derby, three starts back he dueled through fractions of :21.92 and :44.53 on his way to crossing the wire first in the seven-furlong Pasco S., so we know he has serious early speed.

#1 River Thames (5-2) is another possible pace player after drawing the rail. He's been prominent early in all three of his starts, including when finishing a pace-pressing second against a tough field in the Fountain of Youth (G2). While I have my doubts whether River Thames will try to hold the rail against Owen Almighty and East Avenue, he'll likely be a presence in the middle of the race if he takes back and circles outside to track and press the leaders.

A quick pace could play to the strengths of two well-regarded closers: #3 Burnham Square (9-2) and #6 Chancer McPatrick (7-2). I'll side with Chancer McPatrick as my top choice.

Chancer McPatrick ranked among the best juveniles of 2024. He closed from out of the clouds to win his debut dashing 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, after which he unleashed similar deep-closing rallies to take the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1).

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile marked Chancer McPatrick's two-turn debut, and he ran below expectations, closing mildly to fish sixth. But he was beaten only 6 1/2 lengths against a tough field including champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull, Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Gaming, and future Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car.

I initially viewed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as evidence that Chancer McPatrick might be superior as a one-turn sprinter/miler rather than a two-turn route racer, and I suppose that's still a possibility. But I was encouraged by his 2025 debut in the two-turn Tampa Bay Derby. Chancer McPatrick showed improved tactical speed tracking the modest pace in third place before staying on to finish second. He was no match for Owen Almighty, but pulled 2 3/4 lengths clear of Breeders' Cup Juvenile third-place finisher Hill Road.

Chancer McPatrick entered the Tampa Bay Derby off only half a dozen timed workouts since the Breeders' Cup, so it's unlikely he was cranked for a peak performance. That's typical for highly regarded Kentucky Derby contenders trained by Chad Brown. Brown has done excellent working preparing accomplished juveniles to peak on Kentucky Derby day using a two-prep approach, but the strategy often results in a season-opening defeat.

Examples include Good Magic, who finished third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) before winning the Blue Grass (G2) and finishing second in the Kentucky Derby; Zandon, third in the Risen Star (G2) before winning the Blue Grass (G1) and finishing third in the Kentucky Derby; Practical Joke, a distant second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) before finishing second by less than one length in the Blue Grass (G2) and fifth in the Kentucky Derby; and Normandy Invasion, fifth in the Risen Star (G2) before running a close second in the Wood Memorial (G1) and fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

The key here is that Brown trainees typically improve in their second and final prep for the Kentucky Derby. With the Tampa Bay Derby and two more workouts under his belt, I anticipate Chancer McPatrick will move forward in the Blue Grass. If East Avenue, Owen Almighty, and River Thames deliver a fast tempo, Chancer McPatrick can rate off the pace under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat before rallying to victory in the homestretch.

As for Burnham Square, he exits a subpar fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. The stretch-running gelding closed only a little ground down the homestretch to finish 2 3/4 lengths behind River Thames.

However, two starts back, Burnham Square unleashed an eye-catching finish to win the Holy Bull (G3) by 1 3/4 lengths over Tappan Street, who returned to win the Florida Derby (G1) in his next start.

Burnham Square has turned in a series of quick workouts since the Fountain of Youth, including five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs. His recent work tab is flashier than the one he compiled in between the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, and more akin to his pre-Holy Bull exercises. I believe Burnham Square is geared up for a peak performance in the Blue Grass, and a quick pace may allow him to close for a top-three finish.

Selections

1st: Chancer McPatrick
2nd: River Thames
3rd: Burnham Square

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Blue Grass?

*****

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Will Baffert Sweep the Arkansas and Florida Derbys?

-Keelerman — Wed, 26 Mar 2025 19:39:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Five weeks out from the Kentucky Derby (G1), two pivotal prep races are on the agenda.

The $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park and the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park have both drawn promising fields. We'll analyze both in this week's edition of Unlocking Winners.

Arkansas Derby (G1)

There's risk involved with betting a maiden winner stepping into the Grade 1 ranks while stretching out three furlongs in distance. But I'm optimistic the talent of #9 Cornucopian will trump his inexperience in the Arkansas Derby.

Sold for $1.1 million as a yearling, Cornucopian made a powerful impression when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Feb. 23 at Oaklawn. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Into Mischief broke on top, set fractions of :21.86 and :45.50, and then accelerated his final two furlongs in :11.91 and :11.61 to win by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:09.02.

Any way you slice it, this was a huge performance. Cornucopian earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, and the fact he accelerated down the homestretch bodes well for his chances of stretching out over 1 1/8 miles for the Arkansas Derby. Keeping in mind the example of Taiba—a Baffert-trained six-furlong maiden winner who won the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his second start—I believe Cornucopian can handle the step up in class and distance at Oaklawn. He's my choice to win.

#8 Coal Battle (7-2) and #6 Sandman (3-1) are other logical contenders. Coal Battle has won four straight stakes, including the 1 1/16-mile Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Sandman exits top-three finishes in the Rebel and Southwest (G3) over this track. Of the pair, I give an edge to the versatile Coal Battle, who moved sooner into a hot Rebel pace than Sandman and still finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of his rival.

But don't count the maiden #3 Publisher (6-1) out of the mix for a top-three finish. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who upset last week's Louisiana Derby (G2) with Rebel fifth-place finisher Tiztastic, Publisher rallied for fourth place in the Rebel despite getting squeezed badly between rivals in the homestretch. He fought gamely through that adversity to close ground and finish two lengths behind Sandman. Perhaps adding blinkers will sharp Publisher's speed and help him stay closer to the early pace, leaving him with less work to do down the homestretch.

Florida Derby (G1)

#10 Sovereignty (8-5) is doubtlessly the horse to beat in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby. An impressive winner over Tiztastic and Sandman in the Street Sense (G3) last fall, Sovereignty opened 2025 with a rallying triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream. In a race that ended at the sixteenth pole, Sovereignty overcame the shortened homestretch to prevail by a neck over the previously undefeated River Thames.

But I'm going to bet on Baffert to score a Grade 1 double this week. I believe #8 Madaket Road (7-2) can spring a mild upset.

Madaket Road has displayed promising form on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He finished third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) behind champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull, one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Then he ran second in the Rebel, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Coal Battle after setting intense fractions of :22.47, :45.72, and 1:10.94.

Madaket Road was the only speed horse to remotely survive the Rebel pace. His closest pursuers—Lecomte (G3) third-place finisher Innovator and two-time stakes winner Smoken Wicked—faded to finish 12th and 13th, beaten 20 3/4 lengths and 27 1/2 lengths. Furthermore, the horse who raced fourth in the early going—Southwest (G3) winner Speed King—gave way to finish 10th by 15 lengths.

Viewed from this perspective, Madaket Road ran a giant race in the Rebel, especially considering he'd never previously set the pace. Perhaps removing blinkers for the Florida Derby (a 33% winning move for trainer Bob Baffert per Brisnet statistics) will help Madaket Road return to rating tactics and settle behind a relaxed pace set by Fountain of Youth third-place finisher #1 Neoequos (10-1) and flashy Gulfstream maiden winner #4 Disruptor (4-1). From there, Madaket Road can take first run at the leaders and hold off Sovereignty down the homestretch.

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby?

*****

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Building a Case for Built in the Louisiana Derby

-Keelerman — Thu, 20 Mar 2025 17:11:00 GMT

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

A 10-horse field has assembled for Saturday's $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds. The 1 3/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier has churned out a bevy of top-three Kentucky Derby (G1) finishers over the past 15 years, including winners Country House and Mandaloun.

There are plenty of viable win contenders in this year's Louisiana Derby field. Ultimately, I favor the chances of #6 Built (9-2), who has competed with aplomb in the first three Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers at Fair Grounds this meet.

Throughout his career, Built has kept good company. In his debut at Ellis Park, he rallied to finish fourth (upgraded to third via disqualification) against next-out Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner East Avenue. Then in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, Built defeated future Virginia Derby runner-up Render Judgment by 1 1/2 lengths.

Built made his two-turn debut in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds. After leading all the way through slow fractions, he kicked away through fast closing splits to defeat future Risen Star (G2) winner Magnitude by 6 3/4 lengths, with Render Judgment another 2 3/4 lengths back in third place.

In the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, Built encountered a sloppy, sealed track. Jockey Jareth Loveberry felt Built didn't relish the conditions, but nevertheless the bay colt gobbled up ground late to finish second by a neck.

This led to a start in the Risen Star. On a day when the Fair Grounds main track played in favor of inside runners, Built raced outside. He advanced into the teeth of a hot pace set by ground-saving winner Magnitude, then flattened out in the drive as Magnitude kicked clear to win by 9 3/4 lengths with a massive 108 Beyer Speed Figure.

Built did stay on for third place, beaten only a head by ground-saving runner-up #2 Chunk of Gold (8-1), who is back for the Louisiana Derby. Among the horses Built defeated were American Promise and Render Judgment, who returned to run 1-2 in the Virginia Derby.

Since the Risen Star was a fast race, Built earned a respectable 92 Beyer even in defeat. He's adding blinkers for the Louisiana Derby, which may sharpen his tactical speed and yield an improved performance. The addition of jockey Jose Ortiz is also encouraging, since Ortiz has been far and away the dominant jockey at Fair Grounds this meet, winning at a 29% rate.

Assuming the Fair Grounds main track comes up fair on Saturday, I believe we'll see Built rebound with a victory in the Louisiana Derby.

For second place, I like #1 John Hancock (7-2), the undefeated winner of the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs last month. In the Sam F. Davis, John Hancock tenaciously led from the start to defeat next-out Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty by half a length, with last year's Remsen (G2) winner Poster another 2 1/4 lengths back in third place.

John Hancock campaigns for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Flavien Prat and Brad Cox, who teamed up to win the 2024 Louisiana Derby with Catching Freedom. From the rail post, I expect to see John Hancock come out running and take this field as far as he can on the front end.

John Hancock's stablemate #9 Instant Replay (6-1) is another logical contender after rallying to dominate a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds by five lengths with a 92 Beyer.

Also, don't leave longshot #7 Vassimo (12-1) out of your trifecta tickets. He may be one of the longest shots on the morning line, but this Todd Pletcher trainee won his first two starts in fine fashion before finishing a respectable fourth (ahead of American Promise and Render Judgment) in the Risen Star.

In the Risen Star, Vassimo found himself racing behind and in between horses, and I'm not sure he relished his position. He dropped back sharply around the final turn, but once steered to the far outside, he re-rallied with interest to finish fourth. Drawing post seven in the Risen Star should allow five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to keep Vassimo out of traffic and guide the son of Nyquist to a stronger finish.

Selections

1st: Built
2nd: John Hancock
3rd: Vassimo
4th: Instant Replay

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Louisiana Derby?

*****

The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.