Unlocking Winners : betting

New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Pete Denk — Wed, 14 Nov 2012 17:32:00 GMT

Evaluating young sires is one of my favorite studies, both for my bloodstock work with Thomas Herding Technique (THT) and my handicapping.

Recognizing trends early is a path to value. The earlier you make an accurate read, the better. As evidence mounts, the public gradually catches on.

One of this year's more interesting first-crop sires is Curlin. A two-time Horse of the Year, Curlin won 11 of 16 starts, including the Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic, and Dubai World Cup.

All of Curlin's wins came on dirt. He finished second to Breeders' Cup Turf winner Red Rocks (Ire) in his only grass race - the 1 3/8-mile Man O'War Stakes - and ahead of another Breeders' Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now and subsequent multiple Grade 1 turf winner Grand Couturier (GB). It was a very good performance considering it was his first turf start and only his second start back from a two-race campaign in Dubai.

In his only start on a synthetic track, Curling finished 4th behind Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator, and Tiago in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Classic. It was the final race of his career and clearly below his best form. How much Santa Anita's synthetic track contributed to his off effort is debatable. Many dirt horses struggled on that surface, but Curlin also may have been slowing down in the latter half of his ambitious four-year-old campaign.

Curlin was so talented and gritty he probably could have been trained to run on anything, but his stride, tracking speed and powerful, sustained pace played out best on dirt. He won at distances from 7 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. In addition to a very respectable run at 1 3/8 miles on turf, Curlin also ran admirably at 1 1/2 miles when he lost a head decision to the great filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes. Curlin (who was carrying five more pounds than the filly) ran his final quarter mile in the Belmont in about 23-4, one of the fastest in recent history.

When evaluating his progeny, keep in mind that Curlin won his debut in February of his three-year-old season. His peak performances came midway through his three-year-old year through the first half of his four-year-old campaign. Curlin's progeny should not be expected to show their best form at age two.

As of today, Curlin has 12 winners from 37 two-year-old starters. Two of those winners came in Russia.

Here are my notes on his 10 two-year-old winners from America and England:

Savanna La Mar: Filly broke her maiden going 7 furlongs on the turf at Chester. She also finished second in a stake at Sandown and 4th in a Group 3 at Newmarket.

Palace Malice: Probably Curlin's highest regarded colt, Palace Malice ran a pair of quick races last summer in New York. In his debut he finished second to Carried Interest, who came back to finish second in the G2 Futurity Stakes. When Palace Malice broke his maiden in his second start, he beat subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Hightail back to third. No published works since the win, and I read that sore shins ended Palace Malice's juvenile campaign. He is a talented, gritty colt with a potential classic distance aptitude.

Watrugonnadorosie: Broke her maiden in her second career start going 1 1/16 miles over a sloppy sealed surface at Belmont. Note that Curlin was 2-for-2 in the slop, including his powerful 4 1/2-length win in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic at Monmouth.

Liberated: Debuted with a nice run going 6 1/2 furlongs in the mud at Ellis Park, then third at the same distance in a strong maiden race on Keeneland's Polytrack. I thought it looked like she didn't relish the Poly that day, although perhaps she just ran into a tough field (2nd-place finisher Flashy Gray came back to win by 10 at Churchill) Switched back to dirt and stretched out to a mile, Liberated broke her maiden nicely at Churchill Downs in her third start.

Flash Forward: Following a pair of poor performances on the turf in New York, they dropped her in for a $50,000 tag and she responded with a gutsy 3/4-length win going 7 furlongs in the slop.

Moulin de Mougin: Finished 8th in her debut on Del Mar's Polytrack, then broke her maiden going 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf. She then faced males when finishing 5th (of 10) in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview. I am interested to see what she can do on dirt and/or going longer.

Lady of Luck: Won her debut at Ellis Park going 5 ½ furlongs on dirt despite looking like a route horse. Under a hustling ride from the start, she settled in between horses, then produced a strong, sustained rally to win going away by 2 ½ lengths. In her second start she ran third in a nW1X going 1 1/16 miles on Keeneland's Polytrack. This was the second time at the Keeneland meet I thought a Curlin struggled a bit with the synthetic surface. Lady of Luck has some quality and she could be a bet next time on dirt.

Evolutionary: Finished a troubled, distant third sprinting 5f on Arlington's Polytrack in her debut. She came back and won going 6f on the dirt at Remington Park.

Stopshoppingdebbie: Broke her maiden by 7 lengths in her debut at Emerald Downs. Not sure if she beat anything, but she looked great. Although she won here going 5 1/2 furlongs, she didn't look like a sprinter to me. Looked like she can handle much more distance. I wouldn't be surprised if she got privately purchased off this impressive debut.

Curlamorous: Broke her maiden in her debut for a $20,000 tag at Delaware Park, then came back to run second by a nose for claiming $25,000. She was just a $14,000 purchase at the two-year-old sales, so maybe she has some issues, but she at least looks like a runner at her level, and she hasn't stretched out yet.

Conclusions: It is early, and Curlin is still developing as a sire, but several trends that mirror his profile as a racehorse already are apparent.

Curlin's progeny are winless in eight starts on synthetic surfaces. They have finished second once and third four times. There isn't enough data to stamp Curlin a negtaive influence on synthetic (or turf), but at this time I will stick with his default profile of being best on dirt.

Distance-wise, the Curlins already have won from 5 1/2 furlongs up to 1 1/16 miles. I will not hesitate to bet them going up in distance, and many times a little extra ground could be to their benefit. Curlin won with grit and sustained speed, and that profile is very apparent in his first crop. Curlin has classic distance potential as a sire.

I am viewing Curlin as a move-up sire in the slop, particularly on sloppy sealed tracks.

Considering that Curlin did not race at age two, there is a very good chance we haven't seen anything close to the best of his progeny. They should improve at age three.

Despite beginning his career with an exorbitant stud fee and the fanfare befitting of a two-time Horse of the Year, expectations have tempered from the standpoints of bloodstock and betting. Curlin's advertised stud fee will be down to $25,000 in 2013, and his yearling average dropped from $136,000 in 2011 to $78,000 in 2012. From a wagering standpoint, I don't sense people are betting his progeny on his name alone. At a minimum, Curlin will be a sire of solid rachorses. He may be approaching underrated territory.

I will close with Curlin's emotional conformation profile, which my boss at THT Kerry Thomas OK'd me to share here. For those unfamiliar with THT, think of this profile as a measurement of class, presence, temperament, and distance aptitude. Note that we have "recommended for breeding" less than 10% of the sires we have inspected.

Curlin: A very strong, well-rounded horse. Great stimulus interpretation. Reads intentions very well. Distance focus is very strong. He is in control of everything around him. Communicates with his environment very well. Slightly hotter females would be ok with him. He could stretch out more precocious mares. A mid-range focus female would be safe for him. He has a lot of overriding qualities that could pepper/strengthen his mares. Recommended for breeding.

Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Pete Denk — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 16:59:00 GMT

The retirement of Hansen earlier this week further gutted this crop of three-year-old males and left us with a largely paceless field of 11 in the Travers Stakes (G1).

The mid-summer Derby will be a far cry from the Kentucky Derby, where we had Bodemeister ripping along in 45-2 and 1:09-4, with a field of pursuers that included I'll Have Another, Went the Day Well, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Hansen, and others. It appears only sixth-place Liaison and 12th-place Alpha will make the gate in Louisville and Saratoga Springs, along with Derby 17th-place finisher Trinniberg, who goes in the King's Bishop Stakes (G1).

The Travers, a 1 1/4-mile dirt race for three-year-olds, is the highlight of Saratoga's 13-race Saturday card, which includes four graded races. The Ballston Spa (G2), Test (G1), King's Bishop and Travers were carded as races 9-12 and make up a competitive all-graded stakes pick four, which carries a $1-million guaranteed pool.

I see six of the 11 entrants in the Travers as win contenders: Street Life, Alpha, Atigun, Neck 'n Neck, Liaison, and Nonios. Alpha is the deserving morning line favorite, and the more I dug into the race, the more I pictured him hitting the exacta, and probably winning.

Alpha goes second off the layoff for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who wins 33% in this scenario with an ROI of $2.42, according to DRF stats. Alpha showed a new dimension when he went right to the lead and took control of the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) back on July 28. Neck 'n Neck had clear run at him, but Alpha finished with great energy, running his final three furlongs in 36-2 to draw off by two lengths. By Bernardini and out of an English grass stakes winner at 12 furlongs, Alpha is bred beautifully to handle 1 1/4 miles. A clean trip on or near a soft pace appears to be there for him again, as there is hardly any speed in this field. If Alpha moves forward even a little, he will be very tough for the other members of this field to handle.

From a figure standpoint, Neck 'n Neck regressed a bit in the Jim Dandy from his pair of sparkling wins at Churchill Downs. Possible excuses for that loss include a bounce or the sloppy track. Or maybe he just wasn't on Alpha's level.

Street Life finally stayed in touch with a field early, and the result was a nice 1 3/4-length win in the Curlin Stakes. Perhaps it just took him three races to learn how to run with blinkers on. He climbs back up the class ladder here and is playable off the confidence-building win, his first since March.

Atigun can be excused for his sixth-place finish in the Jim Dandy. He was hard held in traffic behind a slow pace and was covered in mud. If he can run back to his third-place finish in the Belmont, he can certainly compete in here.

Liaison also faced a tough pace scenario when he rallied for third in the Jim Dandy. He is in good form, but he is winless in seven starts at age three and will have to run the race of his life to get top honors.

With just six lifetime starts and an ascending speed figure pattern, Nonios could still have some upside. He finished a distant second in the Haskell behind Paynter, who might be the most gifted member of this crop still in training. Nonios gets a positive rider switch to John Velazquez, who won this race in 2005 aboard Flower Alley.

Del Mar has not drawn the full Pacific Classic card as of this writing, but Sunday should be a great betting day too.

Finding value in maiden claiming races

Pete Denk — Wed, 11 Jul 2012 23:33:00 GMT

Maiden claiming races are the lowest races on the class scale and arguably the least entertaining to watch. None of the entrants have won a single race, and all are for sale.

But are maiden claimers the worst betting proposition in racing? Personal handicapping style dictates your answer to that question.

I find plays in maiden claiming races with regularity. That's because a large portion of my approach is based on talent evaluation of young horses. Maiden claiming races are relatively devoid of talent, so even the smallest traces of ability can lead to the winner's circle. And those traces aren't always obvious to the betting public.

Here are a few ways I look for value in maiden claiming races:

First-time starters in maiden claiming races deserve special attention. Common sense says that if an owner has made the decision to sell a horse before it even has run its first race, that is a giant vote of No Confidence in that horse's abilities. For the most part, common sense is right. First-time starters, especially at the lower levels of maiden claiming ($10,000 or lower), are bad bets.

Taking things a little further, if the horse sold at public auction, the past performances will note the selling price (on BRIS and DRF PPs, the auction information appears directly above the pedigree.) If the auction price is higher than the debut maiden claiming price, throw the horse out. If an owner is willing to take a loss before the horse has raced, that is a sign of major physical problems and/or a complete lack of talent.

If a debuting maiden claimer does not have an auction record, look to the sire's stud fee (it appears directly after the sire's name). Add $10,000 to the stud fee and you will have a rudimentary, lowball estimate of what it cost to produce the horse. Now compare that number with today's claiming tag. Again, horses that are being offered for sale in their debut for less money than they cost to produce are bad bets. On the other hand, a horse produced on a low stud fee, say $7,500, that is debuting for maiden claiming $40,000, could be very well meant.

The next thing to do is identify which trainers in the race win on the debut with maiden claimers with regularity (10-15% of the time or more). Very few trainers will meet this criteria. If you are going to bet on a first-time starter in a maiden claiming event, try to focus on trainers that win with 15% or more of their starters in that scenario. Note that a debut win % is not the same as a debut maiden claiming % (For example, DRF Formulator has separate categories for debut MSW and debut MCL). Either through good statistics or by learning your circuit, it will pay to identify which trainers specialize in this spot. The list of debuting horses you should consider in the win pool will be short. The list of throwouts will be long.

Class drops are the best source of overlaid winners in the maiden claiming ranks. In addition to facing easier competition, the class droppers can be profitable plays because they often score lowly on two areas the public overbets: finishing position and final time speed figures.

What you should be looking for in the class dropper is the slightest shred of talent. It could come in the form of early pace, an even effort, or the ability to pass just a couple horses. Those mini-moves at the maiden special weight level become winning moves in maiden claiming. There is an old handicapping rule that says if the class dropper got within two lengths of the lead at any call of a higher class race, it could be a standout on the drop.

Troubled trips are a great source of angles in maiden claiming races, both for class droppers and second-timers (second-time starters, second-time maiden claiming, etc...) A couple examples...look for horses that broke last from an inside post and then put in even the slightest of runs. Those horses can improve dramatically next out. Severe checking incidents also can be cause to forgive an effort. Maiden claimers are rarely good enough to put in a second move and win a race. If you note a horse that showed multiple moves, that's handicpping gold in the maiden claiming ranks.

The next type of horse to look for is one that delivered an above-par effort but lost at the class level. Some maiden claiming race are dreadful. But the ones won by class droppers or impressive first-timers can turn into key races quickly, producing multiple next-out winners. Either by examining past charts or making your own notes, try to identify the 'live' maiden claiming heats before the public, and look for those also-rans when they return.

The last stop in my handicapping of maiden claimers are those horses that already have run well at the class level. The problem with these horses is that they rarely offer significant value. If you see a horse that has multiple in-the-money finishes at the class level at low odds, try to watch those races and investigate who they lost to. If the winners were ordinary and the favorite seems to find a way to lose, the horse may have unresolved psychological issues that are holding it back from winning. Look to bet against this type.