Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Alysheba4ever — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 19:41:33 GMT

Wow how did things get so nasty so fast. People putting down Zenyatta, blasting poor Union Rags for having had bad racing luck with his third in Florida (he was pinned on the rail by another jockey) and bummed and pushed back in the Derby. Union Rags is a very good horse though I myself question whether he can hold on for a win at the mile and ahalf distance but he could. Back when Bold Forbes won the Belmont Stakes many questioned whether he could win at that distance but he was trained brilliantly and ridden even better and I liked him enough to stay with him for that Belmont win. If people think and like the horse well enough then so be it let them choose who they want to choose and hope for the best. Some question Dullahan but I like this horse and believe he can win so that's my choice but I still look at other possibilities so my next 2 picks will be Street Life and My Adonis. Lets see tomorrow who the racing gods bestow the favors on. And in regards to Zenyatta well she truly showed how great she was by losing by not quite a head. She made up I believe almost 20 lengths to come that close to beating Blame who was a very good horse. If Mike Smith would have ridden her better that day she would have retired unbeaten. You know it and I know it. And so does Mike Smith.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

JayJay — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 07:31:34 GMT

Found this very first blog from Pete (already posted my first post Jason blog era) in the 3rd blog.

Anyway, all I can says is "WoW". LOL @ rout by UR. I don't know what happened to Ranagulzion, he's the only one left that still believes UR can get the distance.

Look, I'm not a pedigree expert by any means but if someone comes up to me and tells me UR will win the Belmont by a rout, I'd give him a quarter and tell him to give it to someone else who would listen.

IF UR is the great horse you claim, how come he only has a G2 win this year ? one 3rd in a G1 race and unplaced in his other races. You call that a great horse ?? You think UR has a shot at winning the Championship this year ? You're desperate, I mean truly desperate. When it comes to UR, you're worse than Draynay and no offense but your posts proves it. I can't believe you're still talking about Hyperion, geez man, what the heck happened to you ??

Paynter will be on the lead at the top of the stretch (if he runs his race), IHA will be a close second and Street Life will be rolling from midpack.

Thanks Pete!

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Alysheba4ever — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 21:54:35 GMT

Mary, you say that IHA does not have the pedigree for this distance and yet if you look overall at the Classics then you must have noticed that the Mr. Prospector/Raise a Native line has produced the most Classic winners. You tell others not to be so nasty and yet question my ability to read pedigrees. I am nearly 54 years old and have been a pedigree junky since I was ten years old. I know thats young but it was something that truly fascinated me. But remember one thing, the horses don't know their pedigrees and sometimes like John Henry outrun their ancestors.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

trackjack — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 12:10:55 GMT

Pete, welcome to the blog, Good Luck with your new assignment AND Goold Luck with your Belmont selections.

Jersey Tom: thanks for a breath of fresh air.

Preliminary thoughts: as usually happens when a horse is gunning for a Triple Crown, the rest of the riders are going to do their best to keep him from it. The pace will be moderate with a bunched up field. Watch Javier closely on Dullahan. With that workout, Dale and Javier will put him in the mix early, as will JV with Union Rags. I hope Super Mario is taking his lessons well. The other riders will give him no quarter. I'll have Another is the best in this field and will become the next Triple Crown winner, only the other jocks or racing luck will stop him.

Will be leaving early Friday for the Belmont. Will you be there, Pete?

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 11:36:11 GMT

UncleStosh,

I'll look forward to your pick, as I agree with your points here. My main wagers will reflect that: My trifectas and exactas look like IHA-Paynter-Dullahan, with Paynter favored over Dullahan underneath in more bets and IHA on top in most. I'll hedge against IHA in some boxes, but I don't anticipate going beyond these three. If I can find a single elsewhere in the Pick 4 I might play all three in the Belmont leg as a hedge against IHA, too.

Another thing, about pedigree. Only in the absence of speed and talent is pedigree determinative. In mediocre fields where the stars haven't shown up, horses like Drosselmeyer or Jazil are logical picks (I picked both). In this field, who cares if My Adonis or Optimizer have the pedigree, unless you're dead set on one of them in the bottom of exotics. Since the pedigrees of IHA, Paynter and Dullahan aren't disputed, the fact that they're just better than the rest makes them logical picks.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Mary — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 01:40:50 GMT

jamesb, mention of Zenyatta 11 times, one of the greatest horse's of our time, don't you get smart with me and tell me to get over it, you get over it. We are here to talk about the horses. Do you have any knowledge about this field of Belmont contenders that you would like to share with us? Whatever.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Mary — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 01:34:16 GMT

UncleStosh, that's why I look at the 5x pedigree. Union Rags does not have the body of a sprinter, and he is not a closer. Again, look at the 5x pedigree, i.e. within 5 generations. I give up.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

UncleStosh — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 01:20:36 GMT

I like to look at how they race to determine if they can get the distance in a fast enough time to win(after all, they will all get the distance and finish the race and almost any of the can win if the race is run in 2:30+). I don't consider 2:30 a Grade 1 winning time just an asterisk that there weren't any qualified runners that year so Belmont Stakes Grade 3 editions. I leave that pedigree stuff alone since all kinds can make any case they want in regards to pedigree if they go back far enough or latch onto the right relative. With that being said, I don't love UR. He runs like a sprint to middle distance closer to my eye. It;s a common mistake to think because a horse closes that he can get the next distance but its just not usually true, it's just their style. I also think he lacks any real speed. He gets out run at all the key points in the races he has run. He gets in trouble because he lacks the requisite talent to avoid it. I also can't like a closer like Dullahan who failed to catch a horse who handed him his dream pace and proceeded to walk in almost :27sec. If you can't catch that, what can you catch besides a cold? I'll post my bet closer to the race. It will be a large exotic wager that I will try to hit cold($100 trifecta, maybe a $20 super with 5x combo underneath for another $100)

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

jamesb — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 00:53:16 GMT

11 mentions of Zenyatta in this blog already? She lost people. Get over it.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Mary — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 22:59:54 GMT

There's really nothing left for me to say. I'm looking at the 5x pedigree of these horses. A colt's mare, and her sire's female line is very important in determining stamina, the ability to run long distances. Union Rags was the product of a carefully thought out breeding program. I'm just saying, he was bred, if you look at the tail side of his pedigree, for stamina.

I'm throwing out the Kentucky Derby, bad trip, jockey, not making excuses; this is the reality of what happened. I'm betting on Union Rags, I'll Have Another, and perhaps Dullahan for the trifecta.

I'm not trying to make Union Rags fit into my scenario; his pedigree has spoken. I will say this, if you don't look at a horse's pedigree, your betting on blind luck. This sport is all about pedigree, jockey, trainer, track conditions, and little bit of luck.

Zenyatta was purchased for $60,000 based for the most part on her pedigree. Read articles about it.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 18:29:19 GMT

jamesb,

I don't like him to beat IHA; I like him underneath, preferring him to Dullahan in the 2 spot.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

jamesb — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 17:12:43 GMT

Rusty,

I can grudgingly agree that Paynter has a small chance.

I just can't get past the fact that a horse who didn't start at 2, making only his 5th start, in his first G1, is ready to beat the Derby and Preakness winner and 1 1/2 miles.

But that's why they run the races.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Toro On Turf — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 16:01:24 GMT

Welcome Pete!

I began watching horses in the early 70's and went to the horse track (Del Mar) for the first time in 1976. Have watched them win triple crowns. And have watched many lose the Triple Crown.

And with the last eleven not winning - then you keep saying that and you continue to be right because no one can win the Triple Crown and hasn't until 1978.

Saw Steve Cauthen ride at Santa Anita for his first time. Rode 5 winners that day I believe. Beating Pincay, Cordero & Shoemaker & other greats. Phenom!

I think there is something special about I'll Have Another. And he can get this distance! I think Dullahan will run well too. And I think that Union Rags is the best of the rest. Wouldn't surprise me to see those three go 1-2-3. And I just have a feeling that IHA will not lose this race. Very chalky trifecta!! But I will definitely box em!

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

an ole railbird — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 15:36:04 GMT

i believe you will do a good job here. even tho jason is a " tough act to follow ". i would like to make a suggestion to all you sports (horse raceing writers). we need more history of the game. there should be 1 articule a week published,on the history of horse racing. if this is not done, the trend of the newbies so adamantly bent on rewritting the rules will continue to harm the industry itself. most of these people are have good intentions, but have been subjected to infortmation that was un true, un founded, un tested,&wa written by someone who was not well versed in this field. good luck pete, we need your contribution.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 14:55:08 GMT

jamesb,

I agree with you (good point about Street Life, who will be fifth in the betting -- Mark Valeski ran the same race off the pace and beat him handily, and Jones declared that one not good enough to put in the Belmont) --except on the subject of Paynter.

He was fourth in the SA Derby...in his second start! And in that race he bobbled at the start, ran off the pace (which I don't expect him to do in the Belmont). Improving, fast, fit, dangerous. He's a very good bet, as his odds hopefully will be longer than Dullahan's and UR's.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Age of Reason — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 14:53:06 GMT

Stop the presses! Did I just hear a Blood-Horse blogger mention Zenyatta without a certain phrase ending with "get over it"? Say no more, I like this guy already. Welcome aboard, Pete!

Mary, if I may be completely candid, methinks thou protesteth too much regarding Union Rags. It wasn't very long ago that you referred to me as a "loudmouthed eunuch" for kidding Draynay about his miserable Derby handicapping; and now you're lecturing others for being "terribly unclassy"? Let's not forget the old phrase about the pot calling the kettle black. With all due respect, it seems like you can give it out on the blog but suddenly lose your sense of humor when someone criticizes Union Rags, as if they've blasphemed the sacred. I also noticed you spoke of I'll Have Another's pedigree as being speed oriented. How? His sire Flower Alley was a Grade 1 winner at 10 furlongs and runner-up (by a length) in the Breeders Cup Classic that same year after a stretch-long duel; Flower Alley's sire Distorted Humor is both the sire and grandsire of a Kentucky Derby winner; the damsire, Arch (also a Grade 1 winner at 10 furlongs), is arguably the best son of Kris S at stud, Kris S being one of the best stamina influences in America--don't forget that Kris S is the grandsire of both Blame and Zenyatta, definitely two of the greatest distance runners of the century so far. This doesn't look like a "speed-oriented" pedigree to me. I can see why others perceive that you're not being very objective, falling in love with a horse and then trying to find reasons to support it, instead of the other way around. Enjoy the Belmont!

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 14:47:48 GMT

plodderman,

The track is also fast this meet. I've just seen a few races, but I've seen speed holding, winners widening their leads.

I don't like Ravelo's Boy, but I think my best chance of money might be an IHA-Paynter exacta. I agree that betting against Dullahan in the top two is a good angle.

Besides ability and talent, IHA has a couple things going for him. I don't think anyone will be able to get away from him and hold on to the wire, while I don't think he's going to move too soon. If anything, he moved too late in the Preakness.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Mary — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 14:20:49 GMT

plodderman, "Union Skag", what a nasty thing to post, not to mention terriby unclassy on your part.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

plodderman — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 13:13:01 GMT

Jamesb - Read a book on pace. There is NONE in this race. Unstoppable, IHA and Paynter.... THAT IS IT!!!! Paynter and IHA will be lengths in front when Unstoppable tires. And the lack of pace is right in Ravelo's Boy wheelhouse. These three with have the only "win" shot with Dullahan and Union Skag to complete the super.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

jamesb — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 12:02:31 GMT

Zenyatta is the most overrated horse ever.

That being said...Da Bears!!!!

None of the new shooters should be considered. Paynter finished a non-threatening fourth to IHA in the SA Derby and now has a non-winners of one to go with a MSW victory. Now he is supposed to be close to IHA? Distance or not, I can't see it. Besides, the horse he lost the Derby Trial to, Hierro isn't exactly a world beater.

Atigun, in his stakes attempts has finished 5th, 11th and 5th.

Street Life's 3rd in the Peter Pan was because he had a decent pace to run at.

Optimizer is a complete toss.

Ravelo's Boy - a 4th and 5th in his stakes attempts.

Five Sixteen. This is only his second start against winners.

Guyana Star Dweej. Why is he here?

Neither of Unstoppable U's wins were fast.

No upsets this year. Just box IHA, UR, Dullahan and Paynter and hope for the best/worst.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

JerseyBoy — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 11:48:16 GMT

Welcome Pete. I love a guy who likes to deal with facts.

Fact or fiction?

There are stories in the press that have as their main point the line that the Triple Crown has not been won in recent years because horses are not being bred for distance. This is false.

The top sires in recent years included AP Indy, Dynaformer and Street Cry. The last two sired winners of the Melbourne Cup over 2 miles. AP Indy is a stamina influence.

Which of the following horses were not bred to stay? Point Given, Swale, Afleet Alex , Silver Charm, Charismatic, Sunday Silence or Pleasant Colony? They were all bred to stay. They did not win the Triple Crown either because of poor luck or because they were not good enough.

The last three Triple Crown winners won the Triple Crown because they were superior to their contemporaries and suffered no bad luck. There were questions raised about the stamina of all three. They won anyway.

Breeding has nothing to do with this because if there is a lack of stamina in the pedigrees it will affect all the horses and will in fact make it easier for the most brilliant to succeed. The issue is class and luck, not the way horses are bred.

Note, there has not been a Triple Crown winner in England since Nijinsky in 1970. Questions were raised about his stamina too. We know what happened.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Mike Monarchos — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 03:53:02 GMT

Welcome Pete,

I'm looking forward to your blogs. I'm sure I'll learn something from you.

I think I'll Have Another will win the Belmont and the Triple Crown. I don't care how well Union Rags is bred, he simply CAN'T stay out of trouble. Plus his top Beyer is still only a 95. He hasn't improved as a 3 year old.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Mary — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 03:47:42 GMT

predict, IHA does not have the pedigree to go the 1 1/2 mile. I do like the Mary, mary, quite contrary, though.

Actually, IHA was bred more for speed, which is all over his pedigree. The Wyeth's, owners of Union Rags, have for many years, been thoughtfully and carefully breeding horses more for strength and stamina, rather than speed. They run a prestine program, for the love of the horse.

With JV aboard, I can't see Union Rags losing the race. I didn't feel that way about Union Rags in the Kentucky Derby; issues with the jockey.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

predict — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 02:58:54 GMT

Mary, Mary, quite contrary,

How does your garden grow?

With silver bells, and cockle shells,

And pretty maids all in a row

Mary, UNION RAGS, has a nice pedigree, but it looks confused to me, which is how he runs, confused,with no consistancy. I like him from a visual standpoint, he is a gorgeous horse, but the winner of the Belmont, I think not.

For the best pedigree, I would give that to I'll Have Another. Even you, who so steadfastly wants everyone to look at the female side, can't deny that IHA's female side says Belmont winner all over it. Just look at his dam's dam side first five generations that traces directly back to Seabird, sire of Little Current, winner of the Belmont, and this is where I believe IHA's big heart comes from, directly from this lineage.

Mary, if you are a betting woman, save your money and don't bet Union Rags. This is good advice, believe me.

re: Intro and Early Belmont Thoughts

Paula Higgins — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 02:22:22 GMT

mz, the Queen is something else again. How many 84 year olds can do what she does and still enjoy a day at the races (although she never bets)? Only one and England has her. An amazing woman and a great Queen.