Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Weekend — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 12:52:40 GMT

EL Kabong, you still disagree with me? Dullahan was Dull. He did not run a good race at all. Johnny V was what Rags needed. I am a little mad I did not bet the Super, but that was an easy tri to hit. I wish it paid more...

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Ranagulzion — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 17:32:42 GMT

Criminal Type and Mary,

You both did great, sticking to your guns about Union Rags. Kudos to you. Now its on to the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder's Cup.

What a difference a great jockey change makes.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Pete Denk — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 12:47:18 GMT

Street Life can hit the board, Jay Jay. With IHA out, he's now the 4th fastest horse in the field.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

JayJay — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 06:44:06 GMT

Pete : I'm surprise to see your comments about Street Life, your last comments were he doesn't inspire getting 12F, does that mean he won't hit the board ? :)

KY Vet : How did you handicap the Belmont ?? Favorite / 2nd favorite ? Man, that takes a lot of knowledge. You sure are the pro.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Weekend — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 12:36:56 GMT

El Kabong, HA! You made me laugh a little before I went to try to sleep last night. I say try b/c I have a 3 week old!!

I am in a much more jovial friendly mood today, mostly b/c I went nuts and had 5 winners at CD yesterday. I will try to get on the live blog at noon! Peace

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

JayJay — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 07:44:51 GMT

LOL, he's still going on with UR. He even had Billy suckered to bet UR. Here's a tip about UR, WATCH HIS RACES, it should tell you what you need to know whether he can get the distance or not. This horse has not shown any signs that he can get 10F, let alone 12. I will let him beat me in the Belmont, but he will not take a dime out of me lol.

If he loses, there'll be a billion excuses both from Matz and Ranagulzion. I have a feeling this will be a repeat of the Derby, he'll be slow to get out of the gate... he'll get bumped and that will be the reason he didn't win by a rout.

I'm glad Pedigree Ann commented on Hyperion... this horse is 6 or 7 generations back.

As for the Belmont, I posted in the most recent blog who I like. I just wanted to comment on the first two blogs LOL.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 03:45:12 GMT

Hyperion was 15 hands when he went into training and 15 hands 1 1/2 inches at maturity (as a 5yo), with short legs and a long body. Remind you of anybody? Yes, great-grandson Northern Dancer had a build similar to Hyperion's. Now, does Union Rags resemble either of those two? I seem to recall everyone saying what a big horse Union Rags is, and he looks a long-legged fellow in his photos...,

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

zarvona — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 00:44:40 GMT

I imagine that few of us were alive in ’45 when it took a 2nd bomb to fall on Japan to convince the Japanese Emperor to submit, or that we even if alive remember in ’48 “Citation”. Many, I imagine also, weren’t heavy horse bettors in ’73 when “Big Red”, aka “Secretariat” won the coveted ‘Triple Crown’. Afterwards, all horse racing enthusiasts by then knew of ’73 “Seattle Slew” and ’78 “Affirmed”, where I imagine many were taken into the sport. More recently 11 have tried to retake the “Triple Crown”:-- in ’79 Spectacular Bid”; ’81 “Pleasant Colony”; ’87 “Alysheba”; ’89 Sunday Silence”; ’97 “silver Charm”; ’98 “Real Quiet; ’99 Charismatic”; ’02 “War Emblem”; ’09 “Funny Cide”; ’04 “Smarty Jones”; ’08 Big Brown”… --

Well its 2012, and in this the 12th try in 34 years of trying the stars seem right, so I predict, that we’ll have a new “Triple Crown Winner” in “I’ll Have Another”. If not, I for one will be pulling for that horse ‘with the swagger’ that has ‘the moves like Jaggar’ and that ‘5th gear kick like Curlin’.

YES SIR !!! Go baby Go baby GO !!!

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

El Kabong — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 00:22:04 GMT

Billy, Rusty

I know there was no name on that last Reply, but I think that part about the panties was directed at you Rusty. You got our pal Billy worked up and now he's got you in bunched panties on the eve of the big race.

Look Billy, if Rusty and I were saying anything, it was that we both have a much higher regard for your namesake and I don't think either of us was half as emotional about it as you were. Now, I think you owe rusty an apology.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Your Only Friend — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 23:24:31 GMT

Ken is right...the barn issue is nothing....some just want too piss and moan......who is going to win and who is going to run last.....I do not know ....only thing I know for sure....Horses cannot read the tote board.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

KY VET — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 21:20:19 GMT

Look.......there isnt hardly any races at 1 1/2 miles....did seattle slew have the breeding? did all the other winners have it? what happens when a great horse comes around, wins the belmont with questionable breeding? answer.....it changes the breeding to distance breeding....it takes 1 or 2 good horses to skew the numbers.....of course no one ever mentions this do they?

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Weekend — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 21:03:14 GMT

I could of said the horse that beat Smarty Jones, but I forget his name, Birdstone? or the one that beat war Emblem. Or Da Tara, you get my point, the horse to beat the TC Contender. I was not comparing at all, and if I were to compare, Empire Maker was a freak. My 2 favorite colts in the TC races last decade were Empire Maker and Afleet Alex, b/c they both won my a lot of money, and they were monsters!!

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Weekend — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 20:56:44 GMT

I meant more of the fact that he will win the Belmont, and upset the triple crown bid, just like my namesake did to Funny Cide. Nothing more, nothing less. My biggest bet ever was on Empire Maker, I was that sure he would win. I am not betting a buttload on Rags, I just think he could pull it off, just like Empire Maker did. Get all of your panties out of a wad and chill.

Now, if Dullahan went out in 36, and came home in 22, that would impress me, but it was the other way around. Every horse can run fast for a furlong, look at the sales, they want those 2yo's running in 10, and anything under 9 is exceptional. Look where that got the green monkey. I am not doubting at all he is a good horse, but no wins on dirt, crazy fast work etc, I dont see him winning. If he does, good for Dale. He is a class act.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Wrensflight — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 19:01:16 GMT

I will say thanks, Minnesota Kid, and leave it at that.

Regarding Union Rags, whether or not he has potential to be a classic horse, Michael Matz, with his background as an Olympic rider, knows how to get a horse fit.

I would certainly, along with many other people, like to see I'll Have Another become the next Triple Crown winner. He seems to have been a "sleeper" for most of his career despite his successes. He also is obviously a fighter and likes to win. Other than the fact that the Belmont is an unknown at a new distance for 3-yr-olds, I think I'll Have Another is a reasonable choice for a win.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Minnesota Kid — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 18:21:52 GMT

KY Vet,

You seem to have no problem insulting people, over and over again. Maybe, just maybe, it's time for you to receive a big dose of your own medicine.

Where to begin? We probably should start with your ridiculous future wagers this year for the Derby. You picked three horses, I believe, wagering four or five hundred in total. Each respective payout was approx. 2k.

If you cannot understand why this is a stunningly bad wagering strategy, then you are truly hopeless. Believe me, I would say the same thing even if you hit on one of them. (You did not, of course.)

Now, you attempt to insult handicappers that use pedigree in their respective handicapping? Absolutely unbelievable.

Speaking of unbelievable, where did you develop that writing style? What is with all the CAPS and exclamation points?

I would say that you write like a nine-year-old girl, but that would be an insult to nine-year-old girls everywhere.

Anyone reading this blog knows you could not possibly be a professional player, so please stop insisting you are.

I could go on, but that would be risking a rejection by the mediator, so let me just say welcome to Pete Denk.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Ranagulzion — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 17:22:24 GMT

Paula,

I'm twice the man that Bob from Boston is ...and I don't know that he can sing (LOL).

Karen in Texas,

How can I not take advice from a true favourite ...IHA or U/Rags victorious and the Hallelujah corous will be good enough for me. Just keep a hankerchief handy. Okay?

Pedigree Ann,

Your response regarding Hyperion and reference to Amazombie is very plausible. I guess that my conclusion may be somewhat subjective but it is bolstered by the fact that Union Rags is reliably reported to be very similar in temperament to the late great patriarchal sire (suggesting there's a lot more Hyperion qualities coming through to him) and he has the phenotype, strides and running style to match.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

El Kabong — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 16:48:17 GMT

BIlly E,

Disagree with that analysis of Dullahan's work. The last time he worked like that, he cooked Hansen going 9F's. Some very good horses leading up to the Belmont have done the same. It builds stamina and he has shown no tendency to run those fractions in any of his races if that's what you were thinking. There are many who believe that the best way to train for long distance running is to run much shorter distances as quickly as you can. You get the cardio stress, build the muscle mass, and do it without the damage to joints and tendons that can come from longer works. What you saw was a very fit horse. It's not too late bud, do not join the wagon of clowns on UR. I've seen Shriner scooters in parades move faster for events going over a mile and 1/16th.

UR and Empire Maker? hmmmm

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 16:18:53 GMT

Billy's Empire,

Mine will probably be the first of a hail of retorts after your comparison of UR to Empire Maker. Empire Maker had a real excuse in the Derby (sore foot) and still finished second. Meanwhile, no one questioned his pedigree going into the Belmont.

His trainer's confusing him with Barbaro while his fans are confusing him with Empire Maker. UR has run two bad races in a row. You will definitely get 6-1 on him.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Weekend — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 16:08:06 GMT

Dullhan ran a 22 second first quarter in his last work, not the way you want a horse prepping for the Belmont. Maybe they were trying to get some tactical speed into him, but I did not like the work.

IHA has done nothing wrong. He just wins, but I have to bet against the rookie jock and go with the man Johnny V. He thinks rags is working great and feels great, so he is my Empire Maker this year. My top two are going to be Rags and IHA, and then in third I will use Street Life, Atigun, Paynter and Dullahan. Dull is the only horse to really close on IHA, but again, I did not like that last work.

The races leading up to the Belmont are as usual top notch, and there is some money to be made playing the P4. I will try to get some picks in tomorrow. Good Luck to all, hope we can all cash some tickets.

Pete, thanks for taking over for our midget friend Jason.

get me 4-1 or better on Rags, I will be a happy camper

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 16:05:53 GMT

I don't know why my comment showed up three times.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 16:04:24 GMT

The fields are a little short, but I'm going to try the Pick 4 with IHA, Paynter and Dullahan in the last leg; hopefully I will thereby have a live hedge going into the Belmont and can bet IHA on top there to my heart's, and wallet's, content. I'll try three tickets, each with a different single.

Provisionally...

In the Just A Game I'm only throwing out the 2, 6 & 7 and I'll single Winter Memories on a ticket. It's her second start of her 4yo campaign and she should have room in this short field.

In the Woody Stephens I don't like Hierro; I think the slop flattered him, while the opposite is true of Bourbon Courage. I'll take the three speediest, Trinniberg, Il Villano and Bourbon Courage. I believe Parboo and think Trinniberg could just smoke the field, so he'll be one of my singles.

In the Manhattan I really like Boisterous and Brilliant Speed, but can't decide between the two, so they'll be my "single". I think they both want this distance. For Boisterous, it's his second back, while for Brilliant Speed you can throw out the last race, where he had no chance against Little Mike that day. For my other tickets I'll toss in Desert Blanc, Omayad and, reluctantly, Hudson Steele (maybe I'll have the guts to toss him; he's stretching out here and moving up in class).

I'll play a single, cheap late Pick 4 ticket where I single the favorite in the 12th, Deerslayer, hoping he just wires the field from the rail.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Pete Denk — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 15:52:57 GMT

KY VET-

Breeding is a small part of my handicapping, but I think it can be useful when horses are trying something for the first time, such as a new distance or surface.

Good luck with Dullahan. He sure looks good in his workout videos from Belmont. Maybe he can run a breakthrough race on Saturday.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 15:51:31 GMT

Is Bisnath Parboo allowed to say this?

“I’m very happy to see him go back to the (seven-furlong) distance,” Parboo told New York Racing Association media officials. “The plan going into the Derby was, when we made it to the quarter pole, if there was no horse left to just ease him up. If he couldn’t finish one-two-three-four, don’t push it. We went into the race hoping he could get the distance, and he could not.

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 15:51:26 GMT

Is Bisnath Parboo allowed to say this?

re: Handicapping the Belmont Pedigrees

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 15:51:22 GMT

Is Bisnath Parboo allowed to say this?