Belmont Selections

re: Belmont Selections

JayJay — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 03:16:30 GMT

Ranagulzion : I've always been honest with my posts, I don't pretend to be an expert. I would never ever proclaim a triple crown winner before the kentucky derby, what happened to IHA proved it's ridiculous to make those kinds of prediction or guarantee in your case. I'm just trying to keep YOU honest :) Yes, I'm hoping Matz sends him to the Haskell as well. At least we'll know if Belmont was a fluke or not. We will have to wait for the Travers to see if I'm right about his pedigree and distance limitation.

re: Belmont Selections

trackjack — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 03:16:17 GMT

First chance to read comments after getting back from the Belmont. Congrats to all who stuck with Union Rags. Had the ex but Atigun knocked me out of the tri. Hit the tri in the last race to get back near even but wound up down for the day but had a great time at Belmont Park.

Was able to get down to the paddock before the 10th race and get a good postion to view. Seeing I'll Have Another come in and spend so much time walking the paddock to the cheers of the fans was a special moment.

Paynter and Union Rags both looked super in the paddock. Union Rags looked washed and jumpy before the Florida Derby but Saturday he looked well in control of himself and ran that way. As others have pointed out, Union Rags ran to his form with the 96, kept out of traffic trouble and almost miraculously had the hole open up just enough for him to power through. I agree with those who say he's still has a long way to go to be even in a conversation of three year old champion. Maybe Michael Matz, after that disaster in the KD, is just bringing him along at his own pace.

Dullahan, my pick, needed a fast pace to run into and didn't get it. I hope they stick to the turf with him with a prep at Keeneland.

Pure speculation on my part but I'll Have Another, assuming a clean trip, would have dominated this field.

A great Belmont with a great stretch run and a great day of racing. Win, lose or dead heat, it was great to be there.

re: Belmont Selections

Ranagulzion — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 20:02:29 GMT

JAY JAY,

I'm easy Bro. Just keeping you honest. Lets wait and see. I hope Matz sends U/Rags to the Haskell to take care of Bodemeister and company (including you LOL).

Geronimo2123,

I have great respect for your posts. Very solid arguments buddy. Keep them coming my friend.

re: Belmont Selections

Geronimo2123 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 06:50:15 GMT

"Why does the final time and/or speed figure matter? Well, it doesn't change the result but they are important when handicapping the next race for Union Rags and Paynter(and I guess Atigun as well since he was right there). Given Union Rags has still not run a Beyer over 96, it is perfectly reasonable to question how he is going to be able to keep up with a horse like Bodemeister who has run a Beyer of 99 or higher in all 5 of his last races and twice run faster than 107."

Great posts, GunBow. However, Paynter had twice run over a 100 BSF prior to the Belmont Stakes. BSFs are relatively meaningless. Look at the SA Derby this year. Low 90s. How did the horse that won the SA Derby at 90 something do against the horse that had run a 108 in the Ark Derby?

So, rely on BSFs all you want. I use them as an angle to bet against. For instance, the SA Derby was a good 7 BSF points low because of the 3rd place finisher had never run over an 80 something.

re: Belmont Selections

JayJay — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 05:00:00 GMT

Ranagulzion : Dude, chill out man. You're too sensitive when it comes to this horse. UR has NOT and I repeat has not proven anything ... YET. The horses you mentioned all WON after they won the Belmont, that's all I'm saying. UR winning 1 G2, got 3rd in his first G1 race of the year, unplaced in his next 2 G1 races does not make him the superstar horse that you claim him to be. I explained he has a good chance at the championship now that IHA is retired. The Belmont field had one G1 winner after IHA scratched. You're using Paynter to say that this is a stellar field ?? What about the other 9 horses ?? You didn't even mention Dullahan who was the only G1 winner in the race. Paynter could turn out to be a monster horse having lost a 12F race with only 2 races under his belt this year. I didn't think he was seasoned enough to run in the Belmont yet he only lost by a nose. I ended up picking him because of his pedigree and the quality of the field. You have this knack of turning my posts about UR as being negative. I'm not sold on his abilities yet, that doesn't mean I'm berating him. Unless I guarantee that he's the HOTY, I don't think you'll be satisfied lol. Be honest now, are you really Michael Matz ?? Tell the truth.

I'm the one that lost money by not betting him, you probably won enough to buy an island you can name after UR so I'm confused why you're all upset. Yes, let's have UR "argue" with me on the track, that's all I'm asking.

Mary : I don't know much about pedigree, but I'm glad you agree that Hyperion most likely does not have any influence on UR's ability to get 12Fs. That's all I've been trying to tell him but he refuse to listen lol.

Rusty : I guess I confused everyone with my apology to Pete. It was an apology to him and the bloggers for having such a long post. Not in any way related to his bets.

Billy : I'm not surprised... lol

Pete : THANKS for sticking to this blog. I'm looking forward to your picks and analysis.

re: Belmont Selections

Ranagulzion — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 18:33:05 GMT

Mary,

My analysis of Union Rags' pedigree show that perhaps 90% of his stamina is flowing from Hyperion's pervasive presence in his pedigree matrix, top and bottom. His dam Tempo is also loaded with the blood of the patriarchal sire but analysts who just skim the 5-cross pedigree mostly came to the conclusion that the colt could'nt stay. My reading of the pedigree, bolstered by the horse's phenotype and running style suggested that he could relish up to 14 furlongs. His Belmont Stakes performance proved it.

re: Belmont Selections

Ranagulzion — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 18:24:24 GMT

Jay Jay

I quote you: "UR will now have to show this is not a fluke." (jay jay 10 Jun 2012 3:51 AM)

So you don't call that berating the 2011 2YO Champagne Stakes winner that, like others before him (Seattle Slew,Easy Goer and Birdstone) came back as 3YOs and won the Belmont Stakes?

I'll let U/Rags argue with you on the track buddy. Peace.

Aaron Mac,

I only pointed out their regard for Paynter to debunk jay jay's attempt to suggest that the Belmont field was suddenly of a low standard because I'll Have Another was scratched. I don't necessarily agree with the opinion of the connections but they should've seen more of these colts than either of us at training. Its true that Paynter has some catching up to do but he just might if Bodemeister turns out to be only a miler.

re: Belmont Selections

Mary — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 17:58:59 GMT

Jay, Jay, you have forgotten that Baffert said that he thought of the two, that Paynter was a better horse than Bodemeister. In this race, Union Rags was simply a man running against boys.

Here is a simple analysis of URs' pedigree, which you may feel is rudimentary at best, but it works for me.

On the sire side of the female line, Union Rags' dam Tempo was by Gone West. Gone West was out of the Secretariat mare, Secrettame. Secretariat was out of the Princequillo mare Somethingroyal. As you know, Secretariat won the triple crown. What you may not know is that Princequillo was one of the greatest long distance runners in the history of the sport. So Union Rags got his stamina through daughters of great sires.

On the other hand, Union Rags also got his stamina through his dam's female line. Tempo is out of the Nijinsky mare, Terpsichorist. We all know that Nijinsky won the English triple crown.

I'm not sure if Hyperion played much of a part in Union Rags pedigree.

re: Belmont Selections

Pete Denk — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 17:55:01 GMT

JayJay-

To answer your question about the blog...I will be sticking with this blog all year, and the focus will be on handicapping.

Claire Novak is taking over Jason's old blogs (this weekend). The difference being Claire is not a handicapper, so I would expect a more feature oriented approach over there.

re: Belmont Selections

Pete Denk — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 17:48:23 GMT

Rusty-

My win/place bets produced minor profit (Race 2 winner Love to Run was one of my keys on the day), but I missed my next three win bets.

I put $132 into the pick 4s and hit the late one for $234. So I had an ok day.

If Paynter wins, I hit for $1,000, as I had him in the late p4 for $1, plus a prime win bet.

So close...

re: Belmont Selections

Karen in Texas — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 15:49:35 GMT

GunBow----Thanks for addressing the Belmont Beyer number and pace factor in your post.

That entire 3:13 A.M. post would be really helpful over on Steve's current blog as well....

re: Belmont Selections

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 14:15:30 GMT

JayJay,

Pete probably didn't lose on the day. He hit the late Pick 4, at least.

re: Belmont Selections

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 13:44:53 GMT

Wiped out, by a neck.

I ended up playing the last six races, six 50-cent pick 4 tickets on the two late Pick 4s, each with a different single:

Winter Memories

Trinniberg

Boisterous

Paynter

Deerslayer/Count Catamount (2 horses here)

AlarmedNDangerous

Had Paynter won I would have won on three tickets.

re: Belmont Selections

Aaron McC — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 13:33:19 GMT

Great, gutsy Belmont. Almost as good as the Preakness.

But I think I'm on the side of those that feel Union Rags has a lot to prove before he can come close to an Eclipse this year.

What I'm wondering is if Bodemeister goes on to win the summer classics, does that give I'll Have Another the eclipse? I think the placement of Bode in the next few races could be a huge determining factor in evaluating the creme of this crop. One of them may have to win the Classic to beat out I'll Have Another.

Ranagulzion: I know that Zayat and Baffert know a lot more than I ever will about evaluating a thoroughbred, but Paynter's resume is not nearly as impressive as Bodemeister's right now and owner and trainer public evaluations of horses are best taken as advertising for their future stud careers, to my mind. I will look forward to seeing both of these lightly raced colts develop through the fall, however.

re: Belmont Selections

Weekend — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 12:55:12 GMT

HUH?? I am really confused now....

re: Belmont Selections

JayJay — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 09:22:45 GMT

GunBow : That was a great post (the long one hehe) and I agree with most of it specially your thoughts on how IHA would've run. You're right that things could happen that would have prevent IHA from winning. I never considered it because Super Mario has displayed smart riding in all of IHA's races. I got spoiled and maybe overconfident that Mario can overcome any trouble by riding IHA smart, and keep him out of trouble and that's why I said that IHA would've won by a large margin and UR would've been a distant 2nd.

I (respectfully) do not agree with your comment that if a horse wins the Belmont that they can get the Classic distance. Any horse can get 12fs, but it's a question of whether they can win against other horses who can stay the distance. I've used the term "they stopped running" but let me clarify that what I mean is that the horse stops being competitive, they'll still run because their jockey will keep them running until the finish line. Your concern about UR running against the likes of Bodemeister who has a sick natural speed pretty much explains my point. If Bode stays sound and healthy, he will run UR and a lot of his competition to the ground. If UR and Trinniberg faces each other in a mile race, I have no question in my mind that I'll be betting on Trinniberg to win the race. But you're right, It is a moot point and it's now time to think about the summer races.

I honestly doubt that Matz will face Trinniberg or Bode in UR's future races. I think Matz will spot him at 8.5 / 9f races. There will be no Trinniberg and he'll pick the races where Bode isn't in the lineup. That's what I would do. Get as many G1s as I can without having to use my horse too much. If my owner's goal is to win the Championship, I'll take my horse to the easiest route as possible. Unlike in the past, it's not how much the purse is or taking the easy route, it's about beating the best of the best, the money is just the icing. Sadly, I feel that this is now the name of the game, more emphasis on the breeding fees. G1 wins, add media hype and you will get your horse a higher fee, regardless of who they beat. I still don't get why Quality Road has the same (or probably higher) fee as Blame. Blame beat him twice, both G1s. Media hype? or was it that he set track records at Gulfstream, or maybe his met mile run. Blame won against the best of the best that year. I bet the media stops talking about IHA in a week or two until it's time to vote for the Championship. It'll all be about UR and his greatness because he won the Belmont.

Lastly, I want to thank you for your posts about our cali horses, I enjoy reading the details of each cali horses that you comment on.

Geez, my posts are long as well...sorry Pete and everyone else lol.

re: Belmont Selections

GunBow — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 07:47:20 GMT

JayJay:

With all respect, I think that if a horse wins the Belmont it can get a classic distance. If Union Rags didn't want to run beyond 8.5 furlongs he would have thrown in the towel on the far turn of the Belmont, slow pace or not.

My biggest concern with Union Rags now is if he has the speed to stay anywhere close to a horse like Bodemesiter and then still kick well enough to win, especially if Bode isn't being pushed.

Maybe it was the distance, but in the Belmont Union Rags took a long time to get going, and then had to really grind away at Paynter. For a while on the backstretch it seemed like those long legs were just kind of running in motion. But he did get going, pushing through any supposed pedigree barriers.

re: Belmont Selections

GunBow — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 07:24:54 GMT

Just wanted to bring attention to the fact that last year's Champion Older Male, Acclamation, made his first start since early October a winning one in the grade 1 Whittingham.

This was notable for a number of reasons. First, it gave Acclamation 3 consecutive wins in the Whittingham. Any time a horse can win a grade 1 for 3 consecutive years it is worthy or praise.

Second, the win was Acclamation's 6th overall win in a row, with all of the wins coming in graded stakes(4 grade 1s and 2 grade 2s).

Third, the Whittingham gave Acclamation a total of 5 career grade 1 wins. The most grade 1 wins by a North American male horse since 2000 is 7, shared by Curlin, Lava Man, and Gio Ponti.

Fourth, of the last 24 graded stakes turf marathons run in southern California, 15 have been won by Acclamation(6), Bourbon Bay(6), or Champ Pegasus(3).

Acclamation is the only one of the 3 to have beaten the other 2.

re: Belmont Selections

GunBow — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 07:13:57 GMT

1. The 2012 Belmont Stakes could have been an empty affair, but thoroughbred racing went on and Union Rags, Paynter, and Atigun ran their hearts out. It was thrilling theater, and showed the world the wonders of the thoroughbred just a day after darkness.

2. And it was great to see 85,000 folks still make it to Belmont, and to see the TV ratings up 13%. The thoroughbred world didn't fall into a hole without I'll Have Another.

3. Union Rags is a classy colt, and he delivered the type of gutsy performance I wasn't sure he had in him. I was on the fence about his pedigree, but a number of people I know and respect were certain he couldn't get 10 furlongs let alone 12. But Matz did and in the end the trainer knew the horse best.

4. The best horse won the Belmont. Had Smith closed the door, it would have prevented Union Rags from winning, and we now know he was the best horse.

5. However, Mike Smith absolutely HAD to close up the rail. It was an inexcusable mistake by any jockey, especially a veteran. Smith placed undue blame on himself for Zenyatta's 10' Classic loss, but the Belmont truly was his fault. And I didn't have any money on Paynter.

6. Another Baffert horse turns in a remarkable performance in a Triple Crown runner-up effort. Paynter was remarkable not because he ran fast, because he really didn't. No, what's remarkable is that the horse was a nose away from winning the Belmont after having one start to his name at the beginning of April, a 5.5 furlong race at that! Think about that for a while.

7. The Belmont was great theater, but it was not a fast race. The Beyer came back 96, Union Rags' typical race. Atigun, a horse that had never run faster than an 89 Beyer and who had been blown out by Secret Circle and Bodemeister, was beaten less than 2. That simply doesn't speak to great performances by the top 2. The top 3 were game, just not fast.

8. And the final time WAS NOT solely the result of a slow early pace. They went MODERATE EARLY and MODERATE LATE. After a tepid 6 furlongs in 1:14.72, Paynter sped the field up the next quarter, putting in a 24.13 fraction for a mile in 1:38.85. That's respectable. And with that slow early pace and that 24 second quarter to give them momentum, you would have thought the field would have continued on or at least near this increased pace. Had they run the final half in even 50 seconds(two 25 second quarters), we're looking at a final time in 2:28 and 4.

And given the moderate early pace, the horses should have been able to finish with a solid final half.

But instead, the final half took 51.57. That's ok for 12 furlongs, but after 6 furlongs in 114 and 3, it all adds up to produce a moderate to slow final time and speed figure.

9. Why does the final time and/or speed figure matter? Well, it doesn't change the result but they are important when handicapping the next race for Union Rags and Paynter(and I guess Atigun as well since he was right there). Given Union Rags has still not run a Beyer over 96, it is perfectly reasonable to question how he is going to be able to keep up with a horse like Bodemeister who has run a Beyer of 99 or higher in all 5 of his last races and twice run faster than 107.

10. Because the Belmont is at 12 furlongs and because few horses seem able to run 12 furlongs fast anymore, I'm not going to hold the mediocre final time over the field like a sword. Back in 2010 I was critical of that Belmont because of the time, and that race produced Drosselmeyer, Game on Dude, First Dude, and Fly Down. So, I'll assume Union Rags and Paynter will probably run faster at a more natural distance.

But even if you ignore the time of the race, class handicapping will also bring into question the quality of the race given Atigun's close proximity at the finish.

11. Union Rags has at least given himself some shot at the 3 year old Eclipse. But it's a long shot. Of the 11 horses since Affirmed to have won the first two legs of the Crown, all 11 went on to be named champion 3 year old.

Union Rags is still 2 grade 1 wins behind I'll Have Another, with I'll Have Another holding twice the number of classic wins. And since I'll Have Another won the big one(Derby) and beat Union Rags in that race, then Union Rags is most likely going to have to win one more grade 1 than I'll Have Another to compensate for this deficit in the head-to-head and in quality wins. That means the Travers, Haskell and/or Jockey Club Gold Cup, with the Breeder's Cup Classic a must win.

I suppose it's possible, but it is a tall, tall order and one I am not expecting.

12. It's absolutely fruitless to speculate how I'll Have Another would have done given what we know now about the race. First, the race likely would have been run differently with I'll Have Another in the field. Second, we don't know for sure whether I'll Have Another would have liked Belmont, or if he would have had traffic problems, or if Mario would have made a mistake. And given the horse came up lame, it's totally reasonable to assume that even a 100% I'll Have Another would have succumbed to the rigors of the Triple Crown.

However, if we do suspend reality, and imagine that I'll Have Another would have reproduced his Preakness performance, then he wins by 4-7 lengths. A repeat of his Derby would have resulted in a 2 length win.

In the end, it's moot because I'll Have Another sadly didn't have the constitution needed to be an immortal and sweep the Crown.

re: Belmont Selections

JayJay — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 06:50:47 GMT

Pete : First of all, thanks again for the blogs. Have a question though as far as the format. Jason switches blogs from Triple Crown Mania to Breeder's Cup, and I think they're different pages so I'm wondering if you'll stay on one section or if you'll continue to do it the old way. I personally vote for one location :) Easier to keep track of it and only have to bookmark one page lol.

I don't mind either way really, as long as the blog keeps going. Looking forward to the next blog.

re: Belmont Selections

JayJay — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 06:31:13 GMT

Ranagulzion: I seriously don't know what happened to you. You have lost all sense of logic when it comes to Union Rags. It's like unless I proclaim him the greatest horse in the history of thoroughbred racing, you won't be happy.

I've never berated this horse, you read what you want to read from my posts. Like I said, I know this horse more than you do. I'm not trying to save face. I call it what it is. I don't need to save face, because I know who ran in the Belmont. UR has a LOT to prove.

Now, if you can please post and quote me where you saw me berate this horse, I'd appreciate it. I'm not like you, i won't berate any horses or any other people's picks if they tell me why they pick the horse. My issue with your "adoration" of UR is that you posted nonsense like he'll win the Triple Crown and you guaranteed it. This even before the Kentucky Derby. I questioned it and you responded with even more nonsense wiht that Hyperion theory. You were wrong about the TC winner, and you got it barely right with the Belmont win.

I don't use the form for any handicapping, that's something that pretty much everyone knows so when I'm handicapping a big race, I rely on videos. I watched all of UR's races, and I'm comfortable in saying that I do know this horse more than you do. I said he will not win the Florida or the Kentucky derby, I was right. I said that Johnny V is the best jockey for this horse and I was right. I also said that this horse does not like getting crowded, I saw that in the Florida and Kentucky Derby. In the Belmont, Johnny V had him in a hole all by himself throughout the race, not one horse was close to him. I was wrong about the Belmont, I overestimated the field. We have to wait and see if I was wrong about UR's distance ability. just because he won the Belmont does not mean he has the ability to stay the classic distance.

I never claimed to be a pedigree expert, I searched articles on UR's pedigree and found Alan Porter's. I also asked the pedigree experts in this blog and got my answers from Footlick (about how much influence does 7th generations back have on today's horses) and Pedigree Ann about his pedigree from 3 generations back.

You're the one that has questioned IHA and his abilities even after winning the Kentucky and Preakness and refuse to give him any kind of respect.

I've always said, I like Union Rags but not for the Classic distance races. If he was raced as a miler, he'll probably be unbeaten right now and pretty much have the BC Mile won and if that was the case, I would be comfortable proclaiming him the BC Mile winner, months in advance.

Geronimo2123 : I never thought you were a fan of UR until after the Belmont. I don't remember you talking about his pedigree at all so I'm a little confused about your comment regarding people who "kept carping" about his pedigree. If that was something you knew before the Belmont, I would think that you would have bet UR in the Florida and Kentucky derbies but maybe I missed your posts on how you like UR in those 3 races. If so, I apologize for this quirp :)

I guess you all can tell I finished my 3 bowls of crow o'noodles :)

re: Belmont Selections

Ranagulzion — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 01:39:15 GMT

jay jay,

Your speculation about IHA in the Belmont is what it is, pure speculation and denial of sound pace analysis presented by Geronimo2123.

You continue to berate the Classic winner Union Rags and the field which also included another Grade one winner Dullahan to save face ...I get you. You should be aware that both Bob Baffert and Zayat regard Paynter as better than Bodemeister.

re: Belmont Selections

El Kabong — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 00:43:06 GMT

Jay Jay,

The first thing out of my mouth after I saw that time, was IHA would have waltzed home even with a sore tendon. Error on the side of caution and I know O'Neil and Reddam were giving each other the damn it all to hell look, but they are classy horsemen for doing what they did. End of story. UR is the Belmont champ and lets see how he does in the summer series. Jury is out. I've got reservations for the BC in November and I want talent! Let'em run.

re: Belmont Selections

JayJay — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 21:27:22 GMT

Ranagulzion : I'm good with sophistication and learning posture. I learn things from Footlick and Pedigree Ann's posts. I think I'll stick to my story that your theory of Hyperion being the key to UR's ability to stay 12f is ridiculous. I think Footlick already informed you how much influence genes from 7 generations back has on today's horses. You had UR right in the Belmont but any of your "analysis" about this horse was wrong IMO and I think it was all out of your obsession about trying to be the one to pick a TC winner which didn't pan out. :)

I was the one that said Johnny V was the right jockey for this, I said that Matz should've bribed JV to ride him in the Derby and he would've had a chance. You wanted Prado, and that Hyperion thingamajig.

I also said that UR's chance of winning the championship will be if IHA never wins a race again this year. He has a good chance now specially that they'll probably shorten him back to 9F or less. Like I said, if they go to the Travers and win, I'll back him up in the BC Classic. Unless of course the Travers field becomes an allowance field again.

Geronimo2123 : I think you missed IHA's previous races, this horse can adapt, he's a smart horse. I don't think pace matters to this horse. It doesn't matter who he races, and that's already a fact as he's already proven it in the KDerby and Preakness. I still believe that he would've blown away this field. UR would've been a distant 2nd. It's all speculation now anyway and I'm not trying to take anything away from UR but seriously, tell me what you think of the Belmont field without having to listen to Ranagulzion who thinks this is the best of the best.

re: Belmont Selections

Ranagulzion — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 20:30:25 GMT

jay jay,

I encourage you to read Geronimo2123's post : 10 Jun 2012 8:50 AM. It is an excellent analysis of the final quarter splits, comparing Union Rags' to I'll Have Another's in the Derby. As in your pedigree conclusion, you need a bit more sophistication or more of a learning posture before hardening your positions.