Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Ranagulzion — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 21:21:33 GMT

jay jay,

Now I get your kind of logic ...by your own admission, genes you inherited from sub-species of homo sapiens, Neanderthals. If only I knew I wouldn't have given you such a hard time on here. Good luck with your Boston marathon, friend.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

JayJay — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 07:05:45 GMT

I've decided I'm going to run the Boston marathon, I've been inspired by Ranagulzion's excellent pedigree analysis, he's like the Oracle when it comes to pedigree analysis. I have no doubt I can apply his analysis to my "pedigree" and after reading his last post, I am very confident that I will win the Boston marathon, I have genes from african descendants, and even better, from the neanderthals who roamed the world on foot. Now THAT'S stamina!!!

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Ranagulzion — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 02:01:32 GMT

Karen in Texas,

Thanks for the link to Allan Porter's post Belmont "spin gig" on Union Rags. His pedigree expertise took a major hit in my view because of the misleading conclusion that his opinion gave rise to, about the stamina of Union Rags since prior to the Kentucky Derby. He should have given a more indepth analysis of U/Rags pedigree and noted the strong posibility that the colt would stay a distance of ground based upon the factors which he is now eloquently pointing out after the fact (including Union Rags' relation to previous Belmont Stakes winner Colonial Affair). He failed many fans that were relying on his expertise to guide their opinion of the colt's stamina. I give him a thumbs down for that.

Interestingly, he now mentions High Hat (son of Hyperion), the broodmare sire of Terpsichorist, as a stamina influence. Terpsichorist, the grand dam of Union Rags is inbred 5X3 to Hyperion via Nijinsky and Glad Rags respectively. Also Dixieland Band (sire of Dixie Union) is inbred 4X5X6X5 to Hyperion via Northern Dancer and Mississippi Mud respectively. Any pedigree rookie can see the stamina influence of Terpsichorist but, where is that stamina coming from in the pedigree ...what is the main source and what were the potential limits of Union Rags' stamina?

I'll play 'little boy blue' here and blow my own horn: I spotted the pervasiveness of Hyperion and his English Triple Crown winning sire Gainsborough in the pedigree of Union Rags and concluded that this colt could possibly stay as far as 14 Furlongs at the top level of competition. Porter has not even commented on the Hyperion factor which most novice analysts would not regard as significant, being further back in the pedigree chart, but I think he knows that it is significant ...but perhaps its too late for him to admit.

I appreciate very much your alertness and sourcing of interesting information on here. Blessings.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Karen in Texas — Sat, 16 Jun 2012 19:49:33 GMT

Ranagul----You wanted to see Alan Porter's "spin" on the Belmont outcome. I found his analysis while researching something else, and will link it here. He essentially gives credit to Nijinsky through Terpsichorist, saying (as is infinitely true) that genetic shuffling can give diverse results even in full siblings.

www.bloodhorse.com/Thoroughbred-Pedigree-Weekly

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 18:42:20 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I don't think you're completely right there. WthDW would get in by virtue of winning the Spiral.

Here's the table of the points this year's starters would have had:

www.bloodhorse.com/.../horsemen-react-to-new-derby-qualifying-system

Aside from the blatant injustice of excluding the Illinois Derby (War Emblem, Ten Most Wanted, Musket Man), what are fillies supposed to do in this system?

I'm not sure it's good that it favors the big final prep races to 2-yo races. Does this mean we'll see Derby prospects racing less at two?

At least it would have eliminated Trinniberg.

I'm the exception in being glad they didn't reduce the field size!

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Ranagulzion — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 17:18:55 GMT

I think that it will prove a tall order for this new system to better the Graded stakes system. I'd wager that in a few years people will be calling for a return to the one just abandoned.

Think about it: they paid scant respect to recent history in that Animal Kingdom 2011 Derby winner), Mine That Bird (2009 Derby winner), Went The Day Well (2012 Derby 4th place) and Eight Belles (2008 Derby runner-up) would not qualify. Also, as Carl Naftzer commented they are using the system to manipulate trainers in planning the development of their charges.

In comparing this new system with the previous one it helps to look at who benefits the most, who suffers and whether the notion that fan support and new fans will increase is based upon any scientific survey or is just some ones "bright idea".

Pete,

It might be a good idea to have a blog column dedicated to discussion of this matter. What do you think?

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Karen in Texas — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 14:51:35 GMT

I read on DRF that Darren Rogers of Churchill said 40 points should guarantee a spot in the field, with even 20-30 points okay at the low end. He estimated high point horses at 120-150 I think. Everyone is going to have to ponder this for a while. I do believe the Illinois Derby should be given consideration over the synthetic race in Dubai though.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

JayJay — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 14:04:40 GMT

I see where you got confused. What I meant was that a 2 yr old can win the BC juvenile which gives him way more than enough earnings that even if they don't transition their form turning 3, they are still in. They can lose all their prep races and not even win a G1 and they still have a spot.

A late blooming 3 yr old will have to earn enough to get in during their 3 yr old preps, getting a 2nd in one of the major big purse G1 preps may not be enough to get them in the derby. Is that clear enough for you?

I'm not referring to any horses, I"m not sure where you got that from. I was talking about the new system.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Weekend — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 12:57:46 GMT

Jayjay, stop contradicting yourself. Which is it, they cant get in unless they win a Grade 1 race, or they get in if they place in a grade 1 race. Which horse's are you referring to anyway?

Giacomo was not a grade 1 winner, Mine that Bird was not a grade 1 winner, Super Saver was not a grade 1 winner, yet they all won the derby. In this system, Giacaomo would of only had 36 points. Barbaro only 110.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

JayJay — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 03:12:14 GMT

It's interesting to see that the field under the new qualifying system didn't differ much from the field that ran in the Derby as shown in this article :

www.bloodhorse.com/.../horsemen-react-to-new-derby-qualifying-system

I say limit the field to 14 or even 16, don't count 2 yr old earnings and we have a better system :). Limiting to 14 gives the 1 hole at least a chance to get into the race and lesser horses allows for more maneuvering and tactical rides from the jockeys instead of them focusing on not tripping or falling down. The 2 yr old earnings should not count because not all 2 yr olds transition their forms to 3. The Kentucky Derby is suppose to be the BEST 3 yr olds in the country, if you were great at 2, you'd have to be great at 3 to be in the Derby. Otherwise, it affects the late bloomers who are just getting better at 3 and since the Derby is for 3 yr olds, they should have a better chance to get in than the 2 yr olds who never showed any improvements turning 3 or even worse, never wins a G1 race prior to the Derby. A placing in any one of the top G1 preps should be enough. A 2 yr old can win the BC juvenile by luck and earn enough to qualify but doesn't mean they belong.

R.I.P Giant Ryan.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

ksweatman9 — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 19:56:59 GMT

Bodemeister IS the horse to beat now. I'll bet Baffert couldn't contain himself after hearing the news that IHA was done racing, not to imply that he would ever wish any harm to come the colt's way. I don't believe that. However, he did get a lucky break, because Bode is a powerhouse and will probably dominate the crop without IHA to stop him. I hope this isn't misconstrued, but if I'll Have Another had to succumb to injury, why couldn't it have been before the Derby? Bode would've never sat out the Belmont after winning the first 2 jewels of the crown, and I think he could've won the mile and a half judging by the way it unfolded, no disrespect to Rags ofcoarse. Hell may freeze over before we come this close to a triple crown sweep again. A triple crown curse? Sure looks like it from where I sit.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

JayJay — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 19:02:11 GMT

From the standpoint of the Kentucky Derby, I can't blame Churchill Downs for making their own rules. The Illinois Derby, for some reason does not attract top caliber horses as much even though it's a big purse and a G2. Sunland seems to be gettting more attention than the ID. I think that's because the better 3 yr olds are now coming from California and Sunland is much closer. At least Baffert loves going there for preps it seems.

As for CD trying to put Hawthorne out of business, that's really lame but it is business. I don't agree that they get all the tracks plus I like Hawthorne, they have .50 trifectas lol. Their P4 are so hard to hit though, I always play it and can't get past the 2nd leg (at times when I actually manage to get the 1st leg right).

Rusty : I agree about Pletcher, he gets the spotlight for having the "best" horses at the start of the preps but doesn't seem to get the spotlight when his horse(s) gets injured. 5 top caliber horses sidelined seems a lot to me. Just to clarify, I'm not a Pletcher hater, I'm just saying.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Pete Denk — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 15:00:30 GMT

The exclusion of the Illinois Derby from the Ky Derby qualifier system is CDI's latest shot aimed at hurting Hawthorne.

No way to justify a synthetic track race in Dubai or a turf race in England is more important than 9f on dirt in the USA. Ridiculous.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 14:44:43 GMT

JayJay,

Don't know if he's injured; all I know is he hasn't run since February. And how could I forget El Padrino. This is a terrible record.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

THE KEYMASTER — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 14:15:28 GMT

So the Illinois Derby was left off the list for the new points system to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Another case of Churchill screwing the industry in an attempt to benefit themselves in the future. So you can get points for winning a race at Newmarket as a juvenile, but you get nothing if you win a $500K graded stakes as a 3-year-old? Seems like Churchill trying to put Hawthorne out of business.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

THE KEYMASTER — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 14:09:14 GMT

Did anyone notice that the $500K Illinois Derby was left off in the races for the new KY Derby points series? Looks like Churchill is trying to screw Hawthorne. The problem I have with this system is giving Churchill too much control over what races matter. I guess they put on the race, so it is up to them though.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

JayJay — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 05:24:20 GMT

Pete : One more thing, need help with your value plays for the late P4 at Churchill Downs (at Dark) on Saturday. I'm singling Right To Vote on the 1st leg but trying to beat Royal Delta. :) Thanks!

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

JayJay — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 05:06:03 GMT

Rusty : Didn't hear about TM's injury but that's crazy.

Minnesota Kid : Trinniberg will eventually have to face older horses in the BC sprint so I'm hoping they start him now and for a bigger purse. He didn't seem to have any issues post KY Derby with his last win.

Paula Higgins for President!!

Pete : Thanks for the info on Secret Circle. I'll keep waiting, hopefully his injury isn't too bad that he'll be able to run again this year. I think WTDW will be this year's Summer Bird. Lost a lot of money on him in the KY Derby so he owes me lol.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Paula Higgins — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 22:17:12 GMT

Pete, so sorry to hear about your father. Hope he is doing much well. Modern medicine is so much better at dealing with M.I.'s now (stents etc.). Hopefully, he will do fine. C'mon people quit jumping all over Mike Smith. He did one thing wrong, he let Paynter off the rail. He isn't a robot. Stuff happens. Union Rags is probably the better horse anyway. As for Zenyatta, that was Quality Road's fault. He backed up and that was the ball game. She didn't like the surface either in the beginning. It took too long for her to get going so that if just one thing impeded her (Quality Road) that was it. She was the best horse there that day, but the best horse doesn't always win. It wasn't John Shirreff's fault either. The surface played differently that day and Kent Desormeaux said he hadn't seen it like that in 22 years. So racing on it more often probably wouldn't have made a huge difference.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

an ole railbird — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 21:08:49 GMT

talk about classic distances all you want to. the race i cant wait to see is trinniberg, bodemiester, shackelford, jackson bend, & calebs posse. when they lock those up in the same race going a flat mile, that will a horse race for the ages. classic distance or not. "an ole railbird".

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Minnesota Kid — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 20:03:12 GMT

Gun Bow and 2:24,

Thanks for the info and your opinions.

I agree that, even if Trinniberg could run the table on that schedule, he has no chance to win 3YO male. I just stated that, given other scenarios, he could be a finalist.

One last ? about Trinniberg for the two of you (and anyone else for that matter)--

This colt's connections could have another decision to make on or around July 7--put him in vs. older for the first time in the 400k Smile or keep him vs. 3YO's in the 150k Carry Back.

So, the ? becomes this--

As the owner, would you rather be 3-5 for 90k, or 5-1 for 240k?

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Pete Denk — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 18:27:48 GMT

Thank u everyone for the comments.

I see Howe Great is scratchiong tonight in favor of the Hill Prince at Belmont.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

Pete Denk — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 18:26:37 GMT

Snake-

I didn't think Atigun was fast enough going into the Belmont. He surprised me with that run.

With IHA out, I should have re-evaluated Atigun, as I did see some merit in his NW1 win Derby week (rallied vs. slow pace, ran good final 5/16th).

I missed him in the Belmont.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

genie918 — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 18:19:02 GMT

Paynter going to the front was certainly no surprise and it was the gameplan of his connections. Smith slowed down the pace to a crawl at the half. While Smith was aware of the challengers to his right, he apparently did not know that Union Rags was behind him. Gary Stevens and Donna Brothers made a similiar comment after the race that as a rider you can not hear if a horse is directly behind you, so when Smith went to the left-handed whip, the horse drifted just far enough out to allow Union Rags to come through. Paynter is a good horse who may improve with age, but on Saturday I believe the best horse in the race won regardless of Smith's ride or the trips of the other contenders.

re: Bemont Stakes review and looking ahead

mz — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 17:45:45 GMT

Pete: heart attacks are warnings but not endings.

Hope he's well.

(Don't worry .... we can carry on blathering without you)