Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

CarolMcE — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 22:19:24 GMT

Attending the BC races is on my bucket list and I have tickets! I check the "Contenders" page every day and it changes every day. Game On Dude is the only fish left in the Classic pond now, unless Royal Delta moves over from the Ladies'. Personally, I would love to see it. Too bad Chantal isn't still riding 'Dude!

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

GunBow — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 07:34:18 GMT

Ranagulzion:

If anyone is still reading this posting:::

Your response was very well articulated and well reasoned. Much respect. It will be interesting the rest of the year.

Should Hansen go in the Haskell, Bodemeister's walk in the park becomes a scramble. And Union Rags could be the horse to benefit.

I've come to call Union Rags the Tim Tebow of horse racing. The supporters think Union Rgas is up to all challenges while the doubters think he can't win a grade 3. As it concerns football, I lean towards Tebow more than against, and as for Union Rags I do lean slightly more towards the supporters than the doubters. But to believe he's a champion, I'll need to see more. But I'm not someone who claims that Union Rgas can't win another big race.

Opinions aside, hopefully all the questions will be answered on the track.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

JayJay — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 05:45:41 GMT

Thanks for that info Footlick, I kinda figured that it would be hard for American horses to try EU since the races there are mostly stamina races. I was playing on xpressbet the other night and played this one track in UK, forgot the name of the track, it started with a W. They showed a head on shot of the track and it was rolling hills. I was like what the heck !? I wonder if that becomes part of handicapping there in the UK. SA has the downhill turf but nothing like a rolling hill.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

Footlick — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:12:46 GMT

robinm-Excellebration is the second co-highweight on the Timeform list this year. He is running against the best that can face him unless Cirrus des Aigles drops down to a mile.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

JayJay — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 16:50:50 GMT

robinm : I really really would not like to turn this into a Zen blog but I think her connections did the right things with her campaigns of the last 3 years. I think people wanted to see her potential but I think she already showed it. I don't think it's fair that she be asked to constantly run against the boys to prove how good she is. I don't think it's natural for a female horse to run against the boys (at least here in america). Other than Goldikova and BC, there's really not that many ForM that runs against the boys all the time. Both also runs on turf which makes a big difference.

BACK TO FRANKEL Chat :)

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

robinm — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 16:35:04 GMT

I was pleased to see the exploits of Frankel are being discussed on this blog. Count me as one of the sceptics. How can we know how great this horse is when he continues to race at the same distance against the same horses? Yes, he wins impressively, but his race times have not been impressive, at least not by American grass mile standards. I suppose this may be attributed to the slower European tracks which seem usually to be rated "good" rather than "fast".

I would love to see Frankel reach his potential, but fear that his connections are mapping a tepid campaign, similar to that employed by the connections of Zenyatta.

I was critical of her campaign as well and would dearly have loved to have seen her put her considerable talents up against the best in the country on a regular basis. Instead, we had the pleasure of seeing the best of her on only a few occations because the majority of her races were run against less than stellar competition.

Frankel appears to be a horse that can stretch his speed, but it sounds as though rather than risk his perfect record, he will continue to beat up on the same bunch of milers in England unless they can find a 10-furlong race in a field with no significant competition. Likewise, it sounds as though they will not bring him to America to meet the best milers in the world. I am bummed.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

Footlick — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 09:09:30 GMT

JayJay- I think Whittingham summed it up best when asked about sending a horse to the Arc. He said if he was going to do that he would transfer the horse to Europe and let him/her have a full season there. Racing is so different there than here. The courses are different, the pace and dynamics are different. Even though Euros win a lot here, they really are at a disadvantage with the size of the tracks and the pace dynamics. And not all of them adapt well to our style of racing. Maybe some our horses who are being trained at farms could adapt better, but it still would be a stretch, IMO.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

JayJay — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 04:28:57 GMT

Minnesota Kid : I tried, but I think it's a jinx for me. I've pick longshots in my P4 and my natural instinct is to load up on that if I'm really feeling good about that horse's chance but every time I play WIN, PLACE or SHOW, the horse doesn't hit the board so I stopped betting them on those types of wager. I don't even play exacta on it, I just leave the ticket alone and let it play. When I go to the track, I set a goal of winning 500 or more, if I get lucky to do that, then I go home. I use to have to really really bad habit where I would chase my loses until I have 20.00 left in my pocket. I'm learning that if I give up, I hit more the next day.

The one wager I'm still trying to hit is the P6 and P9, if I can hit those, I'll die happy lol. Those are expensive bets though so I rarely play them. I don't know if anyone knows this but at Monmouth, they have this wager of Place P6 with a minimum of .50 bet starting with the 4th race. I tried it twice and the closest I got was 3 out of 6 lol.

Nice read on the Frankel discussion. I'm wondering how our american turf horses would do in EU races. I think we've done well with the Dubai races but I'm intrigued to see if our turf horses can win in EU's turf.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

LAZMANICK — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 01:50:47 GMT

If we go back to Brigadier Gerard we have a similar situation to Frankel. Many people still consider Brigadier Gerard a miler especially after he only went as far as 6F when a two year old and of his 6 races (all wins) at 3, 5 were at 8F and one, the Champion Stakes, at 10F. At 4 he won two races at a mile giving him 7 lifetime victories at the distance; but he also won 4 races at 10F making him 5 for 5 lifetime at the distance, and won his only start at 12F. His only loss was when 2nd at 10 1/2F to Roberto in a race where he broke the track record.

I can see Frankel getting 10F no problem and I hope they let him try more than once at that distance. He has the demeanor and the stride and the patience to go along with the breeding. His full brother, Noble Mission, won a 10F stakes this year and was recently a close 2nd in the G2 King George at 12F. His half-brother, Bullet Train, only won only 2 career races but one of his wins was a G3 at 11F.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

Ranagulzion — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 01:06:08 GMT

Age of Reason,

I'm a bit disappointed with the apparent timidity of Sir Henry Cecil in planning Frankel's 4YO campaign. I thought that he was quite a brave sport when in 1994 he brought Eltish to run a game and enterprising runner-up to Timber Country in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and returned with the colt for the Kentucky Derby, won by Thunder Gulch the following year. Now he seems to be shying out of a confrontation with So You Think in the Coral eclipse and casting doubt over a trek accros the pond for the Breeder's Cup. If Goldikova could do it successfully multiple times, why can't arguably the most talented European thoroughbred since Sea Bird (according to Timeform) do it once?

Frankel is a beast, no doubt but it would convince many who are skeptical out of due deference to the past greats, if he would be allowed to strut his stuff against the likes of So You Think going 10 panels or make a trip out of his comfort zone to humble all comers at the Breeder's Cup.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

Footlick — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 21:50:28 GMT

Age of Reason-Cecil actually did not commit to the Coral-Eclipse. After the Queen Anne he said that he would let the horse tell him which race he would go in. In regards to which horse has the best chance at 10f, I might disagree with you and pick Cirrus des Aigles. But, Frankel has proved a tough customer to pull up after his races, and his internal fractions can be wicked, so it may not matter which horse he runs against. Cecil has always maintained that his reluctance to run Frankel 10f has to do with his mental maturity, not ability. He needs to see that he is ready to rate kindly enough and be patient, as that usually spells success for a distance event in Europe. Anyway, that is my opinion.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

Age of Reason — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 20:48:03 GMT

Ranagulzion, Footlick et al,

As others have pointed out, the fascination many seem to have with Frankel is less about what he has done (spectacular though that may be) and more about what he will or could do, since imagination and possibilities are endless. People are never satisfied, and even the greatest and most popular equine athletes are subjected to what-could-have-been speculation for decades after retirement. "If only Secretariat had raced at 4, if only Zenyatta had raced in the East, if only Spectacular Bid hadn't found the literal needle in a haystack", etc etc ad nauseum. Frankel's case is particularly intriguing for us American racing fans since Frankel's appearance at the Breeders Cup remains unlikely (why, I cannot fathom; never in the history of sport has a $2,000,000 purse i.e. the BC Mile looked more easy for the taking; but I digress). I find it particularly interesting that Frankel's trainer Henry Cecil publicly predicted his next start would be at ten furlongs, naming July's 10-furlong Coral-Eclipse (Eng-I) as a possibility; but after So You Think stormed home in the Prince of Wales' (Eng-I) and trainer Aiden O'Brien declared his next aim to be the Coral-Eclipse, Cecil insisted that Frankel would stick to a mile next time out. This would have been an extremely fascinating matchup, as no horse in the world has a better chance of beating Frankel at 10 furlongs than So You Think, in my opinion (at least on a European course). Though at this point Juddmonte surely has no great amount of fear for any one opponent of Frankel, it might do well to keep a healthy amount of respect for O'Brien's horses, since the rivalry between Coolmore and the Maktoum family runs deep. O'Brien isn't used to losing very often, or at least getting slaughtered as his charge Excelebration was in the Queen Anne, and has thrown all he can at Frankel before with Excelebration, Zoffany and others; he might not stop challenging Frankel until he beats him or is convinced he cannot. I've already read O'Brien is considering sending Camelot against Frankel in the Juddmonte International, so that seems to confirm my hypothesis. Agree or disagree on these points?

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

Minnesota Kid — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 20:40:27 GMT

Jay Jay,

Thank you for letting us in on your wagering menu.

Hypothetical ? about P4's:

If you get through the first two legs and have a 20-1 shot singled in the third, while only 2 or 3 deep in the finale, do you then play the single individually to win?

It seems to me that it couldn't get much worse than a longshot that you loved wins, pays $40+, but you go 3/4 in the P4 and end up - for the day.

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

robinm — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 16:42:45 GMT

Mary; you have stated over and over that UR would have benefited from a faster pace in the Belmont, but you have never said in what way would he have benefited. Usually when it is said that a horse would have benefited from a different pace (faster or slower)it's because the horse lost and someone is looking for an excuse. But UR won for Pete's sake, so in what way would he have benefited from a faster pace?

re: Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

Footlick — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 16:41:42 GMT

Ranagulzion- a Timeform rating is for one race. IMO, Brigadier Gerard on the whole is still a better horse, as was Ribot, Sea Bird, Dancing Brave and controversially Zarkava. I know I may get some flack for adding her, but she did it all and won all her races fairly easily without ever even seeing the whip. But, I do not consider myself as knowledgable as the Timeform people. I will not ever say that Frankel is the greatest of all time, but I will say I would have no problem ranking him among the best. You have to rank him within his category and he is an extremely dominant miler, possible the most dominant since Blushing Groom. As far as Excellebration, he is the co second high weight this year, tied with Cirrus des Aigles. I don't know what he has done to be treated like a second class horse. His only losses are basically ti Frankel.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

JayJay — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 06:11:30 GMT

Mary : You see it how you want to see it. I didn't see anything amazing or extraordinary in UR's win. There were two horses running and UR managed to nose Paynter who threw a shoe during the race. Regardless, the Belmont field is probably the weakest in its history, as I said to Ranagulzion, this year's Belmont wasn't the test of champions. We'll see how he does in the Haskell and Travers. I'm not a UR hater, I'm just realistic. I think UR can be a good horse, but not a superhorse with his record this year. If he wins the 3 races that Ranagulzion mentioned, then yes, he will probably the champ but we'll have to wait and see.

I did lose money in the Belmont but that has nothing to do with what you call "ranting". I'm sure you won some money with UR's 5-2 odds. I just hope you got your money back from betting UR's sure win in the Florida and Kentucky Derby.

Minnesota Kid : My wagering menu is mostly P4s and P5s but only the .50 cent. I'm a longshot player, in that, I always play odds of 20-1 or longer on my P4s and I don't try to buy the wager. I stick to my longshots and would sometimes single them if I know there's a good chance the other race would be won by a favorite. It's all about taking chances on the odds for me. I just don't believe in going and spending hours at the track betting favorites to win. I look at the track as a chance to make money, not just to play.

I also play .50 trifectas and superfectas, again with longshots on top with the favorite. I've done well so far this year with my cheap bets.

Ranagulzion : I applaud your last post to GunBow. Glad to see you're back down to earth.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

LAZMANICK — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 05:43:21 GMT

Mary Z

There’s enough 10F races for Rags or any three year old whose connections might consider a HOY candidate to compete in. I think that the only one left strictly for three year olds is the Travers (colts that is), but there are others that three year olds have won in the past.

Came Home, General Challenge and Best Pal were three when they won the Pacific Classic.

Since 1976 ten three year olds have won the JCGC with the latest being Summer Bird.

The HGC is a little more difficult because it is earlier in the summer and I don’t believe a lot of three year olds are entered in it against older horses, but Island Whirl in 1983 and Quack in 1972 both won it at three.

The Hawthorne Gold Cup is also at 10F and is a prep for the BCC. Back in the day three year olds like Round Table, Kelso, Admiral Vic, a hard hitter, and Dr. Fager in 1967 won it, but none since Nodouble (1968) and I wonder just how many three year olds have actually been entered in it since that time. One reason is that it’s a G2 and I don’t think many want to run a horse in a 10F G2 that close to the BCC. If they enter a 10F race it will more than likely be a G1.

At last count, 9 of the 28 BCC’s have been won by three year olds.

It’s my feeling that dirt horses three and up that are HOY candidates should be entering a lot of these races and that includes Union Rags. You would think that breeders that wish to breed for stamina would be encouraging the owners to do so especially if these owners plan on selling their horses to breeding establishments when it is time for them to go to stud.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

Mary Zinke — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 04:32:14 GMT

Laz, there just aren't enough 10fs for 3yos or open company for UR to win several this year, if you meant he'd do that in 2012, for my favs to win their share at that distance. JPL, I agree w/Laz, good for you sticking with your fav if you really believe he's the best. You may have made some errors, but I've been reading the ganging up comments and that was getting dickish. Some of that may have been from the previous mistaken identity.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

LAZMANICK — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 04:09:17 GMT

Just Plain Mary

Union Rags still has half a year to prove himself. I for one hope that he wins several 10F races and then goes to stud and actually stays in America. That would be a treat for sure.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

LAZMANICK — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 04:07:57 GMT

Mary Z.

I'm not really bored. I like a good back and forth as long as it makes sense and we can all learn something form it. I like it when someone stands up for their favorite(s). I sure did enough of that when Zenyatta was racing and I'm sure a lot of people wished that I would pack it in and disappear.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

Mary Zinke — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 03:52:44 GMT

No way would I ever type "intellectually superior horse" or "man against boys". That's not me. I have my own overboard horse infatuations and worshiping.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

Mary Zinke — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 03:38:47 GMT

Hey to Laz. What,do the blogs need some huge controversy for spice? How bored are you? I'm thinking about just posting numbers only until there's a resurrection. LOL, I'm getting skilled at pulling teeth though.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

Mary Zinke — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 03:34:25 GMT

Oh yes they have, other Mary. The banana boys,soft banana and rotten banana; you know one of them, and just recently on this blog the trainer's daughter was mistaken. My favorite 3yo male Is CC. I did have your fav in a super though. He passed one of those screeners for the Belmont, so I had to include him, otherwise, I wouldn't have. whatever, too, OM. Thank you though, we all now know more about the bottom of UR's pedigree than we do about our own ancestries.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

LAZMANICK — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 03:22:07 GMT

Hey Mary Z.

re: Breeder's Cup Classic Rankings

Mary — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 03:17:27 GMT

Mary Z, ?? I don't think anyone mistakes me for you, whatever.