Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Dennis — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 16:37:44 GMT

I do believe that Joel rosario will be good, in the Nyra Circuit!

he is a good rider, and the only problem is for his agent to find the good horses for him to ride and win with!! the problem with that is, the New york horsemen do have their favorites.. and they do play that, he will not get the push button horses like ramon dominguez, he have to really ride, and establish himself, from scratch,,but it's all up to the trainers and owners, if they like him, then he's got it made, however over the years, i have seen great riders come here, and they keep them out, and then they just gets fed up, and bolts, but if he is a smart kid, which I think he is, then he just have to compete, and beat Dominguez, and all of them, and who knows they will start noticing him, he can do it!!because I have seen over the years, this happens to many Jockeys, they come here,and wins a race,and they upset the applecart, and then the word gets out, and then they all gang up against him , and dont ride him!! so this in New york racing is not really racing at it's best but a who knows who, and a buddy buddy system

so then again, some Jockey never get the chance to exhibit their true talents, as they have to ride to instructions, and if they dont then simply "they are out of here"

everything is dirty Politics,just like the Salix/lasix issues..either they use it or ban it, no in between.....sometimes they all make me sick.I might need

salix/lasix...

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

c/rock — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 16:34:28 GMT

Regarding Edgar Prado, there was an incident in New York that I think has really hurt his career. He was riding a filly for Anthony Dutrow and tried to come up inside another horse on the rail. They didn't make it through the hole, the filly was injured (I remember it as career-ending), and Dutrow said afterward that Prado would never get on one of his horses again. It doesn't matter how good a rider you are, you've got to have the horses. As Allen Jerkins once said, "they don't call it jockey racing".

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

nickie — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 16:23:33 GMT

rusty, when considering a wager in the 8th Saturday, I would think about Darley bred #3, and #8 who Raviv stays with and pedigree and barn would seem to be worth a 2nd look

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Pete Denk — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 04:10:14 GMT

Good post by the New York Railbird.

I think Rosario is a talented jockey, and if he does the things you say (works hard, rides out highs and lows, stays mentally sharp, etc...) he will do fine.

But I also think he is going to realize that he had it REALLY good in that SoCal colony.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

RailBirdNY — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 03:38:58 GMT

There are some very valid comments here. However, I think there is another aspect which has barely been touched upon. Sure, other jocks have come to NY to try the big stage. We are not talking about the leading jock from here, or a top jock from there. We are talking about a top jock who has not only proven himself on a top circuit but nationally as well. Does that assure success in NY? Of course not. Each jock is case specific. Rosario is strong, is a very good strategist on-track, is a student of the game off-track, has a good sense of pace and timing, and is good, and aggressive when need be, out of the gate. He has the skills. Assure success in NY? No, not always.

However, the one aspect which can be a major contributory factor in or toward or his success, and can give him an advantage is . . . and I have two letters for you... "EB"

His agent, Ronnie Ebanks is a top agent. A colorful, unique and personable guy, he is a top agent. He has succeeded all over -- East Coast, West Coast, FL, NY, KY, all over. He's always handled top jocks, and more important -- he's made many of them. When he's gotten a top jock, he got them to a higher level. EB is no dummy. He's very smart. He gives Rosario an edge over just simply coming to NY. Is it a good time to come to NY? Well, that can be debated, but it's certainly a tough time. He's catch on. Might not light the world on fire, but he has the staying power and skills. In the long run, if he stays, works hard, has a good attitude, rides out the highs and lows, he'll do just fine.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rondo — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 03:19:50 GMT

Speaking of Prado's decline. I taped the preakness where Barbaro was injured. Donna Barton was on horseback and went on and on about how hard he warmed the horse up. Right before the started for the gate Prado looked back at the back left leg and what I thought was a on track steward. I think they had at least some doubt of the horse's soundness before going in the gate. The whole incident gets swept under the rug and Prado gets blackballed in the industry. On a smaller scale see John Veitch and Life at Ten.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

nickie — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 00:18:12 GMT

being the contrarian that I am[see "Kinky Handicapping" by Mark Cramer...love that you guys seem to have written Prados' epitaph, the man can still put a horse in position to finish up. I love him on the lawn! Sweet prices. Very underated jock in NY is "Sixto" Lescano...another guy who excels on the weeds...good handicapping to all

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rolling Thundar — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 21:53:36 GMT

Oh and Rusty...…

I like when you keep your comments shorter, and not so long winded....

My attention span is of a Rookie...

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rolling Thundar — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 21:51:47 GMT

Hey Rusty...…

I like the insight you are giving out this week.......Will wager a few dollars on your Advice and Wisdom.........Make me some money Pal........

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

LAZMANICK — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 21:46:03 GMT

Edger Prado is now 45 and has had some long hard years. More than 5000 career victories including a 536 WIN season in ’97. Has gone down steadily the past three years, but when he was in his prime he was right there with the best.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

LAZMANICK — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 21:42:12 GMT

Turallure in the Firecracker. Time to put it all together and proceed down that road to the BC Turf Mile.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Karen in Texas — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 21:08:59 GMT

Bill Two----I also agree that Prado has been changed by the Barbaro experience. "More mindful" is a very thoughtful way to express it.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Pete Denk — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:56:23 GMT

Rusty-

As much as I find Unstoppable U an interesting horse, who knows where the failed Belmont try has left him.

I like Zetterholm quite a bit in the Dwyer. Much better spacing between efforts (6 weeks) and love those 6f drills. Zetterholm was underrated going into the Preakness, and despite a solid run that day I think he still could be undervalued.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Pete Denk — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:53:43 GMT

Totally agree Bill. "More mindful" is a good way to put it.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Bill Two — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:37:38 GMT

Prado hasn't been the same since Barbaro. His experience aboard that horse changed him for better or worse. My theory is that he is now much more mindful of the horse's welfare than he used to be; not saying that he was oblivious before though. He just doesn't finish on a horse like he used to and seems more tentative.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Pete Denk — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:32:04 GMT

Rusty-

My only quick insight into Belmont 8 is that the 10 Native Wave ran pretty well last time despite a choppy ride from Espinoza. Castellano up today. Bigtime jock switch.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:30:38 GMT

Will also take a stab at exactas, trifectas in the 7th with the 1 on top and 2, 7, 10 underneath.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:22:08 GMT

I like Unstoppable U in the Dwyer but am afraid Morgan's Guerilla might create a pace Zetterholm or Teeth of the Dog will close into.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:03:34 GMT

Pete,

Thanks. Looks suspect just because he was dumped, and blinkers don't necessarily mean anything in the hands of a mediocre trainer; the post on that dog-leg chute is definitely a severe disadvantage, though (see longshot I will include in the 11th, East Indies).

Any thoughts on the first time starters in the 8th (though I keep away from 1st timers in turf routes)?

Lastly, do you like Aruna or Banimpire? I am debating whether to include Mystical Star here, who broke thru and reared so badly, yet finished with interest.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Pete Denk — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 19:40:28 GMT

Karen-

I agree with you that Rosie is still young and has room to grow. I've seen her give some really good rides here and there.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Pete Denk — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 19:38:26 GMT

Hey Rusty-

Longwood Lane looked like he had a big class edge last time, but I remember from my video review that there was something I didn't like about him.

He ran vs some good horses last year, but he has really delayed release points. What I mean by that is ... he doesn't know how to efficiently run away from horses.

I see they are going blinkers on today. Maybe that will help him(?). He has physical ability.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 18:29:38 GMT

Rosario is on a horse I'm thinking of betting in the 8th, Longwood Lane, who looked like a classy prospect last year. Had a bad post (at 1 1/16 on the inner turf) and a wide trip in his return. Prefer him at 6-1 to the ML favorite 10.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

steve from st louis — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 17:35:01 GMT

Pete D.: I used to cover the Chicago tracks for DRF from 1977-82. John Brown, Joe Bollero's son-in-law, was our trackman,Don Grisham was our track correspondent and John McEvoy was our editor.

That was when trainer Bert Sonnier once guaranteed me one of his first-timers couldn't lose. He was right as Meadowlake won his first out by 22 lengths. We also had a young ex-rodeo rider who was just making it as a thoroughbred

trainer. Carl Nafzger was finding success before he saddled a young crack named Unbridled for Mrs. Frances Genter and John Henry got his nose on the wire just ahead of The Bart in the very first Arlington Million. Ah, those were great times.

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 17:33:28 GMT

I'm playing the last five races or so at Belmont Saturday. Anyone else?

re: Handicapping jockeys: How will Joel Rosario do in New York?

Karen in Texas — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 17:22:11 GMT

Pete Denk----With respect to your comment that Rosie Napravnik "has not proven to be any better than riders like Jose Lezcano, Eddie Castro, Rajiv Maragh, etc."; are you saying that she is not better than they were at earlier stages in their careers? Or are you saying she is not better than they are currently? Either way, Rosie only became licensed in 2005; the three you named were riding between 2002-2004 (as far as I can tell from quick referencing). Of course she's getting a lot of respect because she's earned it rather quickly in my opinion. In two to three more years let's see where she is compared to those three and almost any other rider in the U.S.