Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 05 Jul 2012 15:21:35 GMT

JayJay,

You handicapped the 8th race well. I got schooled on that, relearning a lesson I had learned, and forgot, years ago: don't take three year olds in this type of claiming race.

They should call this blog "Unlocking my bank account".

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

JayJay — Thu, 05 Jul 2012 04:26:47 GMT

I hit the late .50 P4 at BHP and won a whopping $53!!!! Now I can get a full tank of gas :(

I swear, I think someone at Belmont monitors the bets I make and makes sure it doesn't win. Belmont's P4 is hardest one for me to hit to the point where it's really getting frustrating... I'm gonna boycott it tomorrow and try again on Friday lol.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Mary Zinke — Thu, 05 Jul 2012 02:09:39 GMT

Congratulations to anyone who had the speed as their win pick in the Swaps. I added him in the my p3, but very disappointed that my duo was not getting a dead-heat photo made. I wound up not playing Belmont.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 17:08:43 GMT

I don't like the 9 as much in the Poker after those scratches. I still won't bet the 5, the lone speed now, but I think the 1's chances are better now.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 16:57:06 GMT

.50 Cent Pick $ at Belmont:

7th – 1,2,4

8th – 1,8,10

9th – 1,4,7,9

10th- 1,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12

Total $162. If some one wanted to book this they would get a guaranteed $162.

Good Luck All!!

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Mary Zinke — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 16:43:12 GMT

Poker, after scratches: 1,9,7,2 If it goes off turf, forget it, but I might be stuck w/these.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 12:42:55 GMT

JayJay,

I'm going to single Right One in the 9th, based on class, what he showed last year at G1, and the fact that it's second back. He and Leparoux should have a better chance in this 10-horse field than last out in a short field, and the 5 and the 8 will hopefully heat up the pace. The 1 will get first jump, but it's been running against that same bunch of NY horses over and over again and I'm going to cross my fingers that the 9 catches him and the others. The others I wouldn't throw out if I weren't singling are 3, 10, and (long odds) 2.

I have a suspicion they'll take the last race off the turf if there's a downpour during the day.

Anyway, in the 7th I don't like the 5; I don't generally like horses to repeat at this weak level -- except the 6, which really dominated last out. The 4, 6, 8 are my picks, with 4 (jockey, stretchout, slight class drop, lightly raced) at attractive odds. I don't consider 1, 7, 9 throwouts but don't think I can afford to take them.

In the 8th will take 1 (whichever one), 2,5 (longshot off what I'll take a "workout" turf route), 7. Don't like the 4 here (will not repeat what he did last time) or 8 (seems to prefer turf to dirt). Like 2 best off turf-dirt switch, claim by new trainer.

In 10th I was tempted to single 6, but too iffy off layoff. I think the 11 is beatable, while I don't like 12 because of the post. I like 5 as a longshot; showed something last time out of 10 post. Same for 9.

Probable picks:

R7: 4,6,8

R8: 1,2,5,7

R9: 9

R10: 5,6,9,10,11

I don't bet multiple tracks anymore. The adrenaline is not worth the money. I used to play Saratoga and Monmouth all summer. I did really well at the former, but poorly at the latter. And vice-versa.

Good luck!

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

GunBow — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 09:42:52 GMT

Take Control's 99 Beyer validated what I saw.

Take Control's race and the Triple Bend are cases in which Beyer speed figures are very useful.

A cursory analysis of both races, using final time as the key variable, would suggest neither Take Control nor Camp Victory ran that well. 1:22 and 3 for Camp Victory does not appear to be elite, and Take Control's 145 and change is about 2 seconds slower than Potesta ran last weekend and a second slower than what John Scott(97 Beyer) ran 2 days before.

But what those final times don't tell you is that the surface changed noticeably from Thursday afternoon to Friday night; for whatever reason, the Cushion Track started producing extremely slow times Firday night, and this continued on into Saturday afternoon.

By taking into account the track variant(or basically the variance in the speed/deadness of the track), Beyer speed figures in these cases are illuminating. Contrary to the final times, the Beyers indicate that Camp Victory ran one of the fastest synth sprint races ever and that Take Control has the ability to jump right into grade 3 level stakes.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Mary Zinke — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 07:22:37 GMT

I'd like the Hollendorfer colts to run 1-2, so here's my completely biased Swaps picks: 1,6,5,7.

If the Poker remains on turf and it's yielding: 1,9,4,8.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

JayJay — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 06:59:37 GMT

Pete : any thoughts on the big day of racing tomorrow ?

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 02:52:36 GMT

Age of Reason

My pleasure. A pretty good number for a horse that is essentially a frist time starter.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

JayJay — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 23:04:44 GMT

Rusty : I'm playing a lot of different track's P4 lol. Took a quick look at Belmont and BHP, will probably play this. Wrote it down already so I don't forget lol. Used equibase for the lineup, looks to be the right program numbers. Who do you like ?

Belmont Late .50 P4 ($9.00) :

I'm playing David Cohen on the 1st and 2nd leg, then closing my eyes and praying I get it right the last 2 legs.

7th : 5

8th : 1, 4, 8

9th : 3,11

10th : 6,11,12

BHP Late .50 P4 ($16.00) :

Liking Baffert's 2nd horse here at 5-1 to beat the heavy favorite. I'll most likely have a separate ticket on Baffert's other horse. Race 7 is very intriguing to me, lots of potential upsetter here. I'm specially intrigued by All Squared Away (of course, 2nd longest shot in the field hehe). I'll probably play a P4 singling Bejarano in the 1st leg and this horse in the 3rd leg and have 3 or 4 in the other two legs.

5th : 2,5

6th : 2,5

7th : 1,5

8th : 8,2,1,7

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Age of Reason — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 22:19:02 GMT

Thanks for the info, Laz! Not a bad number given the aforementioned dead track, plus the 2 1/2 year layoff, etc. Very little will surprise me from this horse throughout the rest of the year!

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 21:33:44 GMT

Age of Reason

Take Control received a 99 Beyer for his race on Saturday.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 21:22:49 GMT

I'm going to take a stab at the Belmont Pick4 tomorrow. Anyone else?

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 20:08:12 GMT

Hay Rusty I guess I just agreed with you.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 19:55:43 GMT

Jay

Actually what I am saying about the differences in track surfaces even though they are labeled the same is probably the basic principle in Beyer’s speed par logic. Trying to equalize all races so that they are run under the exact same conditions.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 19:45:54 GMT

LAZMANICK,

...Hence the invention of Beyer figures, which propose to account for all that. I think everyone here knows they're not a substitute for handicapping, and are often misleading or wrong, but the concept of the "Beyer figure" is a pretty durable one, and some contributors here even devise their own.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 19:26:53 GMT

Jay

I've seen that too for Australian racing but I've never seen it in a DRF PP. I have seen it occaisionally on a race chart explanation and that's about it.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

JayJay — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 18:54:00 GMT

Laz : I've seen those types of notations in Australia racing where the track's condition is listed in the program. I'm not sure if it's the same thing but they use terms such as dead, slow etc. Their programs shows each horses record in each type of the track.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Age of Reason — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 17:52:51 GMT

Thanks for the link, Mary Z! As I was watching Take Control's race I also remembered to watch the 4th at Hollywood from 23 June (you can find it from the same page), in which Stanwyck--an Empire Maker 1/2 to Giacomo and Tiago--finished second at 6.5f. She ran with the same typical style of her two older brothers, coming from 16 lengths back at the second call to finish a good second (the announcer noted she "ran on nicely") for second, beaten 4 lenths while galloping out with the winner and well clear of the rest. It would be great to her and Eblouissante become major forces as they develop!

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 17:49:22 GMT

Rusty:

I get what you say about wet-fast and all that and that fast is a standard terminology for a fast track. What I mean is that when you look at a form and see where two horses of equal class and ability are running against each other and one horse ran it’s last race at 6F in 1.11.4 and the other ran its last race at 6F in 1.13, and both tracks are labeled fast, it’s natural to assume (and many people do) that the horse with the 1.11.4 time actually ran a better race than the horse that ran 1.13. The question really should be, did he? On both days the track was listed as fast, but it’s possible that on one day the fast track really was fast (1.11.4) and the other day the fast track was dead (1.13).

I agree there are many factors that might contribute to how a track plays like weather, humidity, wind velocity, the harrowing of the track so that the dirt might be at a different depth, and the amount of moisture actually contained in it, etc., but the fact is that on certain days a track really is dead fast. There is no notation of this in the PP’s and the only way to determine whether it is playing fast or slow is pay attention to the Beyer (abnormally high or low for a fast or slow race) or go back and review other races on the particular day a horse ran and see if its time was an anomaly or if the track was playing fast or slow that day.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 16:25:03 GMT

LAZMANICK,

"Fast" is just the standard terminology and refers to weather conditions, not how "fast" the track is. There's no "deep and tiring", for example, but there are "wet-fast", "sloppy", "muddy".

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

GunBow — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 04:35:02 GMT

I will take a stab that Take Control's Beyer is somewhere in the low to mid 90s.

The key is that the 3rd place runner was beaten over 6 lengths, or 10 Beyer points. If we assume the rest of the horses in this field ran in the low to mid 80s, then that puts Take Control in the 90-96 range.

re: Weekend handicapping 6/29-6/31

LAZMANICK — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 03:39:24 GMT

Gunbow

I missed a closing paragraph in my last post and that is that this is one area when I believe that Beyers are extremely useful and that is in determining just how fast is a track when it is listed as fast. I guess we can use the term dead track and I think that this terminology should be captured somewhere in each individual race’s analogy.