Finding value in maiden claiming races

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Pete Denk — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 04:56:05 GMT

Thanks for the comments Cassandra. With debuting maiden claimers, I generally don't include the purse in the calculation, and here's why:

1) The cost-of-horse estimates I'm using are low. They do not come close to including all the costs of ownership, so that cancels out the purse value in most cases.

2) Most owners aren't going to assume the full winner's purse on debut. Too much can happen.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 02:02:00 GMT

Oh, btw, the risk/benefit calculation in running a horse below its cost is not based on the claiming price but on the claiming price plus the first place money.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 01:50:14 GMT

I always thought this was a one-off and you've groomed it into a system.

My lifetime best long shot (with TBs) was a maiden claiming filly who had had two outs and finished 12th and last in both of them. She was running at 4.5 f at Greenwood, which is a U-shaped sprint around a very sharp bend. First time with a shiny new bug boy she was left and showed speed just to catch her field. Next time with a journeyman she broke first from post 12, was immediately 12-wide into the bend and fell back. Third time she paid 63 to 1.

Pro gambler I hung out with sometimes gave her to me as a good thing; he'd paid $50 for the tip. Smile: I showed him my tickets.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

JayJay — Wed, 18 Jul 2012 04:02:13 GMT

Man, I get good news about Gemologist and now the bad news about WTDW...

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

JayJay — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 06:57:20 GMT

plodderman : How do I get a sure exacta again, is that keying the 3-1 to all ? Also, why play a $2 win bet on a 3-1 or 4-1 or even 5-1 ? I guess if you like to win just for the sake of winning then yeah, I guess you can play that. I just don't see the value of playing $2 win money on anything lower than 10-1, Also a $2 place bet on a 3-1 ?? How much do you get back from that bet?. I don't know anyone at all who has patience and good money management. I set limit on my weekend playing to $500, the only thing I "manage" to do is learn not to chase my loses, that's the only way I "manage" (not losing more of) my money lol.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 20:12:47 GMT

plodderman,

It's the kind of nonchalant and at the same time greedy bet someone who's losing makes.

On that note, as of last 7/4 I exceeded my budget for a while and will have to forego the pleasure of playing Saratoga. I'll be back for the Breeder's Cup, though. Good luck to everyone in the meantime!

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 19:54:08 GMT

plodderman,

You are right.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

plodderman — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 18:32:36 GMT

Note to Rusty Weisner: Here is a handicapping tip BETTER than anything Mr Denk said. If you plsy ANYTHING that is 3-1 or higher, your first bet should be a WIN BET!!! No excuse..... Short cash. Sure exacta. A note from God. The best part of any good handicapper is patience and good money management. In your situation there were only 3 ways to bet that race. Two $1 exactas and a $2 win bet. a $4 win bet or a $2wp bet. Anything other than that makes the "real" handicappers more money in the long run.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Pete Denk — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 17:33:43 GMT

Thanks Kevin and Gunbow.

Good job hitting those pick 3s, Kevin.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

JayJay — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 03:26:31 GMT

Just read that Gemologist is a possible starter in the Haskell. Looking forward to seeing him run again. Neck N neck is also a possible starter. Can't wait!

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Kevin — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 22:55:43 GMT

Used some of the tips in the blog to hit 2 pick 3s at Belmont on Saturday; Races 6-8, Races 8-10. Wish I had played the Pick 4 as it paid $17K. But happy with my $30 investment returning $345. Thanks for the tips.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Morpheus — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 19:20:02 GMT

Hey Rusty you have hit the nail on the head regarding maiden races especially at Belmont.

I saw that race on July 4th with Pletcher at 4-5.

I did some research and found that in Maiden Special Weight races this year on the dirt the morning line favorite that was (1-5, 2-5,...,9-5) has really struggled in these situations. They have only won 10 out of 22 times which is

45%. A $44 investment yielded a loss of -$10.20 giving a negative return.

You can probably beat the favorite in these situations especially if it was a morning line favorite such as (1-5, 2-5,...,9-5).

Check out www.insidethenumbers.net/Horse_Cents and use drop downs & select All/5 for ml odds, select Maiden Special Weight races, all dirt from 4-27-12 to 7-14-12.

Let me know what you think.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

JayJay — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 19:04:39 GMT

BHP : Going to try and beat Bejarano with the 1 and 6 in the first race :

$5 Double : 6 with 1, 6

$2 Double : 1 with 1,2,5,6,7

Belmont : Late .50 P4 ($12.00) :

3,8

3,7

4,5

7,10,12

Good luck to all playing today!

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

GunBow — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 00:06:20 GMT

Thanks Pete and others:

Those are angles I had thrown around in my head, but had never had it so well articulated.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Pete Denk — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 15:43:36 GMT

Billy I agree about that odds pattern. Early action then a drift up is good stuff. It means the public is not on the horse.

I might do a future blog on odds patterns.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Weekend — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 12:41:21 GMT

Thanks for the tips Pete. When I look at these types of races, I try to look at three things, 2 which you have mentioned, and 1 you have not. The two are horses dropping in class, and trying to find a horse that offer's good value b/c of a troubled trip. The third is course and distance, how these horses run at this particular track, and how they have run at the distance. This comes into play often on synthetic courses like Keeneland and Turfway, as well as quirky tracks like the inner at Aqueduct. Good luck to all. I hope you can cash some tickets this summer.

And to piggy back on what Laz said, the Smart money is also sometimes a great indicator of a horse ready to run big. M/L 10-1, drops to 4-1 at first glance at the tote board, then climbs back up to close to morning line price. Someone made a big bet on the backside...

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Kevin — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 12:34:03 GMT

Pete, can we start reviewing the Free PP races on DRF so we can see your handicapping insights more regularly? For instance, I'm reviewing the #9 from Monmouth today, looks like both the favorites are quite beatable; not liking to pass others in the lane. I'm going with the 6 for value.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 20:41:22 GMT

JayJay,

I was talking specifically about maiden claimers.

As for the first time, particularly those 2-year old ones, I hate those, particularly at Saratoga where Pletcher always has these 4-5 horses. I hate betting around these races. I have no idea how you predict when they're going to lose (one such horse lost on July 4 at Belmont). That would be another interesting subject for a blog this time of year.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

JayJay — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 19:56:58 GMT

Rusty: Not sure what you mean by the worktab doesn't pertain to maiden claimers because they've already started. I was talking about first time starters as those types of races are pretty much a guessing game, the workouts are the thing I can use to get an indication of what the horse can do (doesn't necessarily mean their workout reflects their abilities).

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

LAZMANICK — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 18:55:06 GMT

Betting maiden claimers is often a bad bet, but betting them can also be lucrative. Pete made a lot of good logical points and workouts I believe are important, especially if there are a few long ones like 6F. Several things that are most important to me are: (a), a trainer’s stats with first time starters; (b), failing in a MSW then dropping into a claimer; (c), good early speed for two calls or late closing gains for two calls in both cases against better; and (d), watching the odds board for unusual early money usually the first change or so, and for odds that are pretty well at the same level throughout. I also learned a long time ago that if you look for big odds your chance of winning drops tremendously. I’m never afraid to bet a maiden that is favorite or which might not be a favorite but is at relatively low odds if it figures to be there at the finish.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 16:35:00 GMT

JayJay,

The work tab doesn't usually pertain to a maiden claimer, where most or all have already started.

The trainer angle is unfortunately often baked into the odds, as his stats are right there on the form.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Pete Denk — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 16:16:41 GMT

Agreed Jayjay. A steady work tab is good and some semblance of speed is good.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

JayJay — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 16:07:30 GMT

Pete : One thing I didn't see you mention for first time starters are the workouts. If the field is mostly first time starters, I use the workout pattern, not necessarily how fast they worked but the spacing between the workouts. Horses that works out 6 to 7 days in between are the ones that I look at closely, meaning I check out how their odds move.

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

JayJay — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 16:00:37 GMT

Pete : Great great post, as Kevin said, this is the type of info I'm looking for as well. A lot of new information and handciapping angles. I sometimes hndicap maiden claimers base on the trainers. Wesley Ward was the best 2 yr old trainer when he was here on the west coast. Carla Gaines for MSWs, she also gets value morning line odds. THANKS!

re: Finding value in maiden claiming races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 14:57:40 GMT

Pete Denk,

To further illustrate one of your points, on the same day in R2 the two favorites were "bumped" and "turned sideways" at the break. Goes to show that the risks of betting the favorite are greater the worse the quality of the horses, as these mishaps are more of a factor. These races are by definition "value" races.