Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Mary Zinke — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 17:35:24 GMT

Hey, wait, B.E., what happened to Royal Delta's neck win? lol.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 16:02:22 GMT

Aleine-

Hopefully we can see Silver Max vs Summer Front in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Arlington Park on August 18.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Aleine — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:19:36 GMT

O.K.,...Summer Front won at Saratoga this weekend, I saw the race. Remember the reason "given" for the switch to Saratoga:Rain predicted at Colonial. (whining)

The rain held off and it was just under 80 degrees that evening at Colonial. So...great watching Silver Max win but hey fans were deprived of watching Silver Max and Summer Front in the same race, same surface by switching tracks. And the purse was bigger at Colonial. So much for the trainer's wisdom. Let's do a match race.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Weekend — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 14:03:05 GMT

Recap

VA DERBY: Summer Front (re-route, won)

DEL CAP: Tiz MiZ Sue (2nd by Nose)

CCAO: Funny Proposition (5th?)

Willard Straight: Great Mills (scratch)

Sanford: Onetwentyeight/Handsome Jack (2nd and third, Fav won)

Eddie Read: Casino Host (3rd)

not too bad, I cashed in almost all of the races with WPS show bets of 20 across.... the chalk won all of the races except questing...

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 02:11:59 GMT

Wow -- I guess those two crosses of Roberto and three of Princequillo contributed some trickle-down stamina to Silver Max.

Write out 100 times: speed and lack of stamina are not the same thing.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Mary Zinke — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 01:45:03 GMT

In that p6, winners in race 5 and 8, favs. My other sure things didn't work out(didn't hit the board), except for Norvsky, more chalk, in the California Dreamin'. Just wait 'til the next carryover though. LOL

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

JayJay — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 00:33:50 GMT

So far, I'm 3 out of 4 on my P6 ticket. My picks did NOT hit the board on 3 out of the first 4 legs. I'd be 4 for 4 if Peacenik had only faded. I'd be really pissed if my picks don't hit the board on the last 2 legs and Peacenik ruins my perfect ticket.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 22:23:50 GMT

Was a good run Kev. The powerful combo of Rudy Rodriguez off the claim and Ramon Dominguez beat u.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 22:08:53 GMT

I hate that. Looked strong at the top of the stretch and flattened out after going 8 wide. Got my heart beating though.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 21:38:19 GMT

Good luck Kev.

Brave Dave looked dangerous for a while but kinda blew the turn.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 21:34:36 GMT

Alive to the 14 in the Saratogo Pick 4.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 21:00:48 GMT

Great ride by Dominguez to get Reach for a Peach going in the clear in Saratoga 8.

I like this filly a lot. Will look to bet her back on next step up the class ladder.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 21:00:21 GMT

Pete, thanks for the hint on the #5 in the 8th. I put him in my Pick 4 and am still alive. My 6 ran well too though.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 20:53:16 GMT

Matt on TVG is on fire at Saratoga. He picked the 8 in the 8th. I"ve been ignoring him most of the day, lets see if this comes back to bite me (AGAIN).

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

JayJay — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 19:52:39 GMT

Pete : I think your Sanford picks in the P4 is the superfecta play - box the 4 horses for .50 cent ($12.00 investment). The only horse I can see ruining it is the 1 horse, I never ignore Ward's 2 YOs.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

JayJay — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 19:49:05 GMT

Saratoga Late P4 :

2,6,10

5,8

2,7.11.14

Delmar P6 :

1,5

1,5,10

3,5

5,9

The first 2 legs are a freakin' nightmare to me. I wanted to get the 10 in the first leg as well but it's getting too expensive. Race 8 is not easy either, I want to put the 1 horse in my ticket as well. Oh well, you can't bet them all.

Good luck to everyone playing today!

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 19:25:54 GMT

Will play the Saratoga Late Pick 4 as follows:

6,8

2,5

2,3,5,8

7,9,11,12

($32)

Plus I'll bet Brave Dave to finish 1st or 2nd in the Sanford.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 19:12:34 GMT

Not betting Saratoga Pick 6 but it would be

1, 11

2, 6, 8

2, 5, 6

3, 5

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 19:09:46 GMT

In the Sanford, I think the Calder shipper Brave Dave warrants a look at a price. Was looking at the fractions on the card, and he was very fast to the 4f mark (45-1) and had a good final time.

There were a pair of 2yo stakes later on the card, and they hit the 4f mark in 46-1 and 46-2. Hmmmm....

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 18:42:27 GMT

No closers today at Saratoga on the main track.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 18:01:32 GMT

Kev-

In Saratoga 8 I see u r going with Ladywell Court. I liked her maiden win too. She can win, but I'd be a little concerned with the 7-week gap between the win and the next work. And this is a good field.

My pick is 2 Strike Accord, who has taken a nice step forward on the turf at age 3. Her last race was her first vs. winners and was a very nice effort. Fast final time and 23-flat final quarter. I think she has enough early speed to take advantage of the inside post, and her late speed is very steady. Good horse.

The other one i like is 5 Reach for a Peach, who should improve second off the layoff for Chad Brown. She got an unenthusiastic ride from AE Smith last time and gets Ramon D today. My only concern with her is that it can be difficult to close from way back on this course. But this is a filly to watch in the NY-bred ranks. She has a very nice distance profile and good herd dynamic.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 17:40:00 GMT

I had 6/1/4,7/3, 4, 7 in the Super. Almost.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 17:37:50 GMT

Summer Front just won rather impressively going a mile on turf in the listed stake at Saratoga.

As previously mentioned, he scratched out of the Va Derby.

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Kevin — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 16:45:37 GMT

Pete, ignore him. I enjoy your insight. What do you like at Saratoga today? Haven't decided on my bets yet but like the following horses

1) 5

2) 6

3) 5

4) 6, 8

5) 5, 11

6) 3

7) 7

8) 6

9) 3, 5

10) 9

re: Weekend handicapping 7-20 to 7-23

Pete Denk — Sun, 22 Jul 2012 16:32:32 GMT

Long Nose-

I was having a fairly rough day yesterday before I hit the late double at Saratoga pretty well. It paid $186 for $2.

Cozy App, the 13-1 winner of the last, was dropping from statebred MSW into maiden claimers. Her form fit the profile I wrote about last week in my column about finding value in maiden claiming races by de-emphasizing finishing position and final time speed figures in favor of well-meant class drops.

I also piggy-backed on my friend and Las Vegas handicapper James Zygmunt's selection of Shadow Runner in Del Mar 5. Shadow Runner paid $20 to win, and was one of the selections on our weekly Saturday Locksmith Analysis. That comes out on Fridays.

It's not so easy picking winners 24 hours in advance, but James and I have been doing a pretty good job of finding value. (Note that the daily free locksmith analysis is provided by BRIS. James and I do not contribute to the daily free picks)

If you continue to take shots without any substance to your criticism, I will delete your comments.

I encourage you to contribute your handicapping theories and selections.