Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 13:37:19 GMT

Jay Jay, I feel your pain.

1971 was the first year I was able to follow a Derby candidate from its 2yo year into the spring - I went to university in a town with a major league track and the DRF on sale. My 'baby' was Jim French, who seemed to race every weekend and thrived on it. The only reason he didn't run in the Travers (in which he would have been favored) was some suspicious circumstances about his ownership, not any physical ill. A shame he was sent to France for stud; his hickory constitution would have been a real plus for US dirt bloodlines. (And he had great bloodlines, from the first crop of Graustark out of Dinner Partner, by Tom Fool, second dam Bluehaze by Blue Larkpur, she a full sister to Derby second Blue Swords. Family of Native Partner, Arazi, Exchange Rate, plus a bunch of Euro SWs and classic Japanese runners.)

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Matthew W — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 12:17:59 GMT

Saratoga--today!--race seven: #6 Princess Malia (6-1), it seems lately I've been hung up on these 6-1 shots--oh well, 6-1 is good enough for me!

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

JayJay — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 06:03:25 GMT

Pedigree Ann : I guess you're right. I became a full on fan of IHA after the Preakness and was so ready for a TC winner as in my mind, I was guaranteeing a win by IHA in the Belmont and winning it easily. It was very frustrating to learn of his injury. I guess in some way I wanted the 3 yr old championship to be a US horse, not a horse from Japan. Yeah I know, he raced here but it's still nagging me lol.

Pete : Yeah, I guess Paynter would have to beat older horses twice to take it away from IHA.

Paynter spiked a fever, it doesn't surprise me anymore. It's like these colts has 1 or 2 good races in them and then they fall apart. I was questioning Hansen not running in the Jim Dandy but now I'm happy if they just run lol, if Hansen only runs in G3 races just so they can keep him healthy, I'd take it. I just want to see them race past their 4 yr old season, get some bottom on these colts before they start breeding.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Pete Denk — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 16:13:14 GMT

Paynter would need to sweep the rest of the year, including the BC Classic, to have nay shot at 3yo champion.

I'll Have Another pretty much has that award on lockdown.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 13:03:29 GMT

Jay Jay, useless to speculate about a championship. Heard the same sort of thing in 1971 after Bold Reason won the Hollywood Derby (10f dirt, getting 13 lbs from the second), American Derby, and another race in the summer of 1971. He did win the Travers but couldn't land a blow against his elders. And he had been comprehensively defeated by many of the top spring colts who were no longer racing, so double classic winner Canonero II received the very first Eclipse award for his age-group.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

JayJay — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 05:44:10 GMT

GunBow : If Paynter wins the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, would that be enough to challenge IHA for the 3 yr old championship ? I think it should be enough, but wondering what your opinion is on that. I'm not sure when Bode will run, but he also has one G1 win in the Arkansas Derby, which I think was a tougher race than the Haskell with regards to the field. I guess the same question applies to Bode, if he wins the Travers and the JCGC, would it be enough to "eclipse" IHA ?

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

GunBow — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 01:49:55 GMT

Good start on the racing side for Del Mar. And it's been good for the old timers.

Two Eclipse champion Cal-bred 6-year olds(Acclamation, Amazombie) win the first 2 grade 1s of the meet, Richard's Kid, a 7 year old, takes the gr.3 Cougar II, and Rail Trip, another 7 year old, wins the gr.2 San Diego.

From the younger set, 4-time Argentine gr.1 winner and gr.1 Shoemaker Mile runner-up, Suggestive Boy, wins the restricted Whickerr, and last year's Haskell winner, Coil, won an allowance impressively.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

GunBow — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 01:44:54 GMT

Age of Reason:

Because the Pacific Classic is over a synth surface, a turf-synth surface, it has attracted Acclamation and Suggestive Boy. Acclamation won it last year, then there's Richard's Kid the winner in 09' and 10'. Maybe Rail Trip, a grade 1 winner, and Take Control from the San Diego go. Then there's the best maintrack older horse in California, Game on Dude.

Of those, I'll take Richard's Kid. Del Mar is his track, he is just as sharp as he was during his highly productive 2010 season, and the type of move he made in the Hollywood Gold Cup wins Pacific Classics. Acclamation is going to have plenty of pace company, and he may not be quite as good as last year.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Age of Reason — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 22:41:10 GMT

Gun Bow, on the strength of Cali's 3 year old crop: I share in your delight. Now you know why we haven't seen most of the East Coast Bias hacks in a while. (Sylvester, are you listening? Love ya, buddy--all due respect, of course.)

While I'm on the subject of California racing, surely I'm not the only one who's really looking forward to the Pacific Classic? Talk about a strong field if all the hopefuls make it, and one that includes the winners of the last 3 editions of the race! Also, I've been impressed by the fact that there's at least one coast with the guts to keep their major races at 10 furlongs year after year.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 11:22:35 GMT

GunBow:

I am really looking forward to your Breeder's Cup analysis this year, it being at SA, and I hope you get a guest post or two.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

GunBow — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 08:04:32 GMT

Matthew W:

I made it out to Los Al Saturday night for races 9-13. Terrific Synergy was by far the horse of the night. It's hard to win big races by 2 lengths. He knocked on the door is some big futurities last year, but he seems to have put it all together at 3. He might already be ready for El Aquila Real in the battle for best horse on the grounds.

By the way, what has happened to the times at Los Al? Just about every stakes race is about 4/10ths slower than the previous couple of year. Terrific Synergy wins the Governor's Cup Derby off by himself in 19.48. Top older males go 19.68 in the Spencer Childers, and top older females go 19.97 in the Matron. Last year, a horse much less talented wins the Derby in 19.40, the Mtron goes in 19.37, and Chivalry wins the Childers in 19.067.

Is it a coincidence that during the past 12 months there have been a number, a large number of notable stakes disqualifications for medication violations? That a number of the leading tainers have been suspended for medication violations, and the leading trainer the past few years was basically asked to get out of town after a number of medication violations? Is it possible that we are simply seeing how fast these horses really are when not juiced? Are the years 2008-2011 at Los Al going to be looked upon like the steroid era in baseball? Or is the maintanence crew doing something different to the track?

I wish the answer was the latter, but I doubt it. And all the medication violations occrred as a number of prominent trainers and owners were allegedly doing business with the cartels.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

GunBow — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 07:49:56 GMT

The Bing Crosby added further evidence to what I've been claiming for a while, Amazombie is the #1 pure sprinter(6 furlongs) on the continent and The Factor is ill-suited for the BC Sprint.

Going back to last year's Sunshine Millions Sprint, Amazombie's first stakes win, he has now crossed the wire 1st in 7 of his 8 races at 6 and 6.5 furlongs(he was dq'd from one of those wins, a bogus dq in my opinion). The one legit loss was in last year's Bing Crosby when Amazombie was likely tailing off a bit from sustained campaigning( after a brief freshening he won back-to-back grade 1s to seal championship honors).

What makes Amazombie so special is his consistency, durability, and his ability to run over multiple surfaces, in California and away from home. He possesses enough tactical speed to keep the leaders in range early, and has a solid mid-late kick. And he's tough.

I recognize that on any given day there are a number of sprinters out there that can beat Amazombie. However, if you line all these horses up 10 times, with a good number of the races producing legit paces, and I believe Amazombie wins the plurality.

And even when Amazombie does meet a top sprinter on that horse's best day, or gets an unfavorable pace set-up, or has to run a little further than preferred(7 furlongs), he still tries and still runs in the money. He's just a true pro.

What many seem not to recognize about Amazombie's loss to Shackleford in the Churchill Downs Cap' is that Amazombie was spotting that horse 5 pounds. He was also running a 7 furlong distance that isn't his best, and was forced to race closer to the pace than normal. With the BC at a track Amazombie has done very well over, I rate him the early horse to beat.

I've stressed this for a while: if The Factor is challenged on the front end to run quick fractions, he just isn't the superstar he appears to be on other occassions. When The Factor has looked particularly good is when he was able to sit outside of horses through moderate fractions(22 and 2 or slower, 44 and 4 or slower); when he gets that scenario he can fly home in under 23. However, if he gets hooked in a duel and forced to run faster, he is made vulnerable in the stretch.

Sunday in the Crosby, the first quarter in 22 and 2 was fine, but because Comma to the Top didn't back off when Garcia moved up on The Factor asking for the lead, they went the next quarter in 22. And that did in The Factor.

What's telling is that it's not like the Crosby fractions were that fast. The track has played slower these first 2 weeks than last year, but 44 and 2 for 6 furlongs is still not THAT fast. But with another horse looking him in the eye, it was too fast for The Factor.

Maybe if The Factor could clear off in front of horses he could conserve more mental energy and have more fight for the stretch? The problem is that The Factor just doesn't have the type of early speed to be able to clear elite sprint fields. Think back to The Factor's sprint races-when was he able to clear a field? The answer is, he hasn't.

In the BC Sprint, I would think the field would include some horse, like Frumious, who is capable of going 21 and 43 early. Then, there will proably be a couple of others that can go 21 and 3, 44. Where will that leave The Factor? Most likely, in 5th struggling to keep up and being forced to do something he has never done, rally and win.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

GunBow — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 07:15:23 GMT

Even I, a fan living in California, continue to be impressed by just how much better the West Coast 3 year olds are.

And I can't claim before the Derby I knew this. I knew they were a heck of a lot better than last year's Cali 3 year olds, and I was impressed with the number of local horses that shipped and ran well throughout the country. I wrote before the Derby that I thought from top to bottom the Cali horses were better than any other single geographic contingent(separating New York, Florida, Louisiana, and Arakansas), but I didn't think they were this much better.

Honestly, just about everyone missed the boat on the clear superiority of the Cali based 3 year olds. Recent history in the Triple Crown certainly didn't inspire confidence for the Cali horses, but this year is not connected to last year or the year before. Many of the NY based writers at the drf hardly mentioned any of the Cali horses leading up to the Derby. Brad Free,a leader among drf's Cali handicappers, was among the few that recognized the talent out here. I saw the signs, but the recent struggles(Lookin at Lucky aside) tempered my enthusiasm. I hate to think how much money I could have made had I bet with confidence.

With all respect to Alpha, Paynter emerged this weekend as the CLEAR favorite for the Travers, unless his stablemate Bodemeister goes too. Alpha was able to walk in the Jim Dandy and then did what good horses do with such an advantage and finished the deal. Paynter, on the other hand, had to deal with much more legit fractions, yet still finished full of run while producing a time that compared very favorably with the other 2-turn stakes at Monmouth.

The fact Paynter was able to let Gemologist go early and still relax fully tells me the horse is putting it all together mentally. As others have mentioned, Paynter was the buzz horse in the Baffert barn all along.

Given an ability to rate, and with excellent distance breeding, I'm not sure that I would still keep Bodemeister #1 among the Baffert 3 year olds. In retropsect, I think the Belmont was a valuable learning experience for Paynter. He had to ration is speed an extremely demanding distance, was forced to deal with multiple challenges along the way, then had to go head-to-head late with a big, legit top-flight grade 1 horse. And given Paynter had one race, a 5.5 furlong maiden, to his name at the start of April, the 12 furlong Belmont was asking a ton of him. Paynter lost that day, but it might have been one of those "growing up" moments.

Nonios ran an encouraging 2nd in the Haskell given he was shipping out of Cali for the 1st time and running on dirt for the first time.

On July 4th, I had debated whether to make it out to Hollywood Park for the Swaps Stakes; without I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Paynter, or Creative Cause, the Swaps field didn't get my imagination going. But I reminded myself about how good the Cali 3 year olds have been and concluded that even these 2nd and 3rd tier runners could do damage if sent East for the big money pots. I'm glad I went because I was able to see Nonios for the first time(and the winner Blueskiesandrainbows could end up being a scary frontrunner).

Nonios just has a smart way of moving. He possesses tactical speed, can accelerate, and seems fine up to at least 9 furlongs(his breeding suggests 10 furlongs should be in his range). If it wasn't for Nonios, Paynter would have waltzed to the wire with absolutely no resistance.

I think it's back to the drawing board with Gemologist. Something had to have gone amiss because I don't think he's THAT bad. But I don't know about going forward to the Travers, Ranagulzion. That performance was just so bad that I'm not sure he got enough out of it to be ready for 10 furlongs and a deeper field. A more prudent path would seem to be giving the horse a little longer to sort things out in the mornings and then pick one of those softer, 2nd tier derbies.

The situation with Dullahan is simpler. But him back on turf or synth. There's the Pacific Classic on Poly, but I don't think he's ready for that level of older horse. So, maybe point for Keeneland or target the Jamaica and the Hollywood Derby, both grade 1s on turf againt his age group. The Secretariat in 3 weeks would appear to be too soon.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 02:16:01 GMT

Alpha crawled against a weak field, where his best competitor broke slow. He didn't win with speed, he won with class. I'd look to bet against him but won't be around to do it.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

JayJay — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 01:51:26 GMT

Laz : I agree, Baffert said Paynter was his best horse early in the TC trail. See what happens when you don't lose a shoe ? I think he would've won the Belmont easily had he kept them shoes on lol. He's pretty much the only real deal in the Belmont. Dullahan who was the only G1 winner in that race didn't really show up, like Rusty, I was never a believer of Dullahan. I think you had it nailed, he probably should be running in the turf and hopefully this is his last dirt race. Also, it seems the roles were reversed between Paynter and Gemologist today. I'm not sure why Javier gunned Gemologist to the lead today. Having said that, Paynter shows he's not all speed, and he looked natural stalking Gemo and put him away quite easily. If he continues to run like this, he's going to be exciting to watch.

Kevin : I did that with Dialed In, lost a bundle. Now I have a rule, if the horse doesn't win, bet him again, if he loses again, bet small on him AND only if he's 10-1 or higher lol. I'm starting to see this pattern with Gemologist so if he comes back in the Travers, I'll bet small on him. With Paynter, Alpha taking the favorite role, Gemologist might actually run at 10-1 or higher. Street Life will probably be the 3rd choice.

I have to say that I like the older horse division in that all the top horses are running against each other, so far, I'd have to say RTG should be the No 1 with his wins in the SA and SF (coast to coast).

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Ranagulzion — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 00:13:35 GMT

Got it mostly wrong this weekend (only Street Life obliged of my posted selections) ...anyway there were some quality performances from Paynter, Alpha and Currency Swap.

The Amsterdam might have come up too soon for Fort Loudon after his hard fought victory over Trinniberg at in the Carry Back Stakes at Calder, not to mention changing stables, moving to Nick Zito. The King's Bishop is shapping up to be very interesting ...especially if the red hot Baffert points Bodemeister to that 7 Furlongs contest and Hansen joins them there (Dr Hansen might now be scared to tackle Paynter and Alpha going the 10 Furlongs of the Travers). Trinniberg and a refreshed Fort Loudon should make it a very hot affair. Gemologist was disappointing in the Haskel but could've needed the race and deserves another shot in the Travers. Street Life looked impressive in the Curlin Stakes and now seems ready to be taken seriously amongst the elite 3YOs for the remainder of the season.

The much maligned Belmont Stakes quality has been somewhat vindicated by the performances of Paynter and Street Life. Atigun in the Jim Dandy did not seem to relish the underfoot conditions and deserves another shot in the Travers. This crop of 3YOs deserve a passing grade.

Looking ahead to the Breeder's Cup, Bob Baffert is certainly shaping up to have a grand time at Santa Anita this year. So far his hand is looking strong in the Classic, The Dirt Mile and the Sprint and we have to take for granted that he'll be in the juvenile mix once his 2YOs start to come out (very good for him).

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Kevin — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 23:19:25 GMT

Does anyone fall in love with a horse and keep expecting more, only to continue burning money as the horse underperforms? I saw the Unusual One's first race, he had trouble, I put him on my stable alert. I've bet him bigger and bigger each race and he has yet to cash. Took my weekend bankroll today.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 22:32:08 GMT

Was rooting for Paynter, especially after he lost me a lot of money by a neck in the Belmont. Petty of me, but I don't like Pletcher and had some Schadenfreude seeing another of his horses unprepared. By the same token, I'm ever more impressed by Baffert. A great year, so far, and wouldn't have really been something if he hadn't run into that other horse that was so good. I guess Paynter was obvious off the rest.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

LAZMANICK — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 22:25:13 GMT

Paynter, I'm really beginning to believe. This guy is good. Gemologist looks like a miler at best and please Dale put Dullahan on the turf where he belongs.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

LAZMANICK — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 22:05:41 GMT

Terrible stumble at the start for Gun Boat. Spotted them 8 or 9 at the gate. Nice win for Currency Swap.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 21:50:07 GMT

Ooh, that's a shame. I had that 3 at 25-1 on those losing tickets. I liked it that he was competitive in the turf sprint two back, then ran a half race in the route last out, as if for a tuneup.

I'll watch the Haskell, disinterestedly, no bets. If anyone still likes Dullahan (I never have), this is the race to bet him. Everyone thinks the shorter distance is to his disadvantage. No idea how I'd bet this race. What do you do with Gemologist?

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 21:34:41 GMT

Quit while ahead. Good night.

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 21:04:26 GMT

I'll play the Pick 3 the other way, too. $40 for two tickets. Gives me an excuse to sit through a few races before my fare-thee-well. Didn't get to play Saratoga, which is just as well. There was some kind of $24,000 Pick 3 yesterday I think, which would have broken up all my tickets.

R11: 1,2,3,6

R12: 1,3,5,7

R13: Paynter

I'm really signing off now. Next chance I'll get to play before the Breeder's Cup will be Maryland Millions Day in October, which I will attend in person.

Good luck!

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 20:54:01 GMT

Hey, I just hit the 50-cent Pick 4, R7-10 at Monmouth, for $657. I singled Royal Currier in the 9th, who won by a nose. Would have won $2500 if the 1 had caught the winner in the 10th, but I'll take it. It was a $56 bet, as there was a Uruguayan horse in the 7th who was an even money favorite in the 7th, and I've never seen a South American do anything his first race in the U.S. (I took ALL).

I had one last chance to play this summer, and took it. I've got a soft spot for the Haskell, having been there twice (War Emblem, Peace Rules). Didn't feel real confident about the Haskell Pick 4. Every time I've ever played Monmouth the bias to speed has been obvious, but I don't see it today, so I don't feel strongly about Paynter.

I'll play that Pick 3 for some spare change, though. I'll try singling Afleeting Lady in the 11th, with 1,3(longshot),5,7 in the 12th and not yet sure who to eliminate in the Haskell.

Good luck, everyone!

re: Curlin, Jim Dandy and Haskell

Matthew W — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 19:58:22 GMT

I think Ft Louden runs big today---Love that sixpac in The Haskel--anyone remember King Glorious, in 1989? He looked like the 2nd coming of Precisionist....like Dorf today, Nonios....this is a banner crop, there are more three year olds--the Travers this year, with no Classic Winners---will be Classic!