Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

LAZMANICK — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 16:42:51 GMT

I agree with you Billy. I'm not a fan of having it at Gulfstream because quite often there is too much bias on the main track, but I would sure love to see it at Belmont.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Weekend — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 15:53:24 GMT

well, I guess if only 3 sites apply for the BC, monmouth, CD, and Santa Anita, that limits the opportunity.... Damn California

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Weekend — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 13:35:06 GMT

I just want to say that the Breeders Cup people are a bunch of friggin idiots for keeping the race there again in 2013. What happened to rotating sites? They need to go back to Gulfstream IMO. I understand certain sites have bad weather and it may be cold, but the Europeans love it. The horses love it. The fans love it. Nothing a little bourbon can't fix... lets keep the BC inclusive, not exclusive to Santa Anita and CD, and I am saying this and I live 10 minutes from CD...

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

THE KEYMASTER — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 16:43:13 GMT

Good stuff Pedigree Ann... thanks for this!

I didn't notice that the names of the dams in Fort Larned's pedigree were being recycled, but I looked up the pedigree and you are indeed correct. I don't think I have ever seen this done before. It is interesting that Fort Larned's dam and third dam are both named Arlucea. At least they can't recycle the name Bayakoa, right?

I noticed that Janis Whitham is the owner/breeder of Fort Larned and that she was also the owner of Bayakoa, along with her late husband.

I don't remember Izarra (the 1/2 sister to Fort Larned, not the 3rd dam of Fort Larned) as a race horse, but I see she is G1 placed and multiple graded stakes placed. It appears that Izarra had her first registered foal in 2011, who is a colt by Stroll. She had colt this year by Sky Mesa. Good stallions, but not elite stallions. I always like a strong female family that can produce runners no matter who they are bred to, and maybe Izarra will fall into this category.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 15:38:39 GMT

P.S. on Fort Larned.

Do you notice that he has a half-sister named Izarra? Their dam is named Arlucea, out of Bayakoa. Well, Bayakoa was out of a Group winner in Argentina named Arlucea, whose dam was named Izarra. Someone is having fun with name symmetry, up and down the generations.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 15:35:35 GMT

Bill, the thing I remember most about Bayakoa is that she ran with the tip of her tongue hanging out of the right side of her mouth. And that quote from Andy Beyer before the Gulfstream BC Distaff - there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run as fast on the lead as she needed to and still hold off a quality filly like Gorgeous. Famous last words.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

THE KEYMASTER — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 13:29:10 GMT

Sorry a little late getting back to posting... Played the East coast tracks then Del Mar all day Saturday, then went out Saturday night, then played the played the East coast tracks and Del Mar again on Sunday, then went to The Red Mile last night for opening night. That was a solid 48 hours or of so of racing.

I tried to look smart by calling the exacta in the Whitney cold with Flat Out in second, but fortunately I wasn't greedy enough to play it this way and I liked Fort Larned enough in the win spot to key him there and use multiple horses underneath... I would have been a fool not to use both Motts underneath.

GunBow, interesting stuff on Bayaoka. You have one more year of experience on me... 1990 was my first year of going to the races, so I didn't see Bayakoa in 1989, but I do recall her Breeders Cup distaff all too familiarly, as this was the first Breeders Cup I ever watched and wagered on. I have done some reading on Bayakoa since then, but it is always interesting in getting a first person narrative about their experiences, so thanks for this.

Let's hope to get it right again next weekend and cash some more tickets! Have a great week all!

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 12:01:40 GMT

While Shack can not run on the pace in a sprint with true class speed for graded stakes,I dont think his connections expected him to.He was probably going to save ground from the 1 several lengths off the pace and run them down in the stretch for at least a piece of the purse,(he has more stamina)this was announced as a prep for him(I didnt expect him to win)After the race the jockey and trainer said they didnt think he handled the sloppy track and would not run anymore on a similar track.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

GunBow — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 01:15:14 GMT

The Vanderbilt showed what a difference 6 furlongs is from 7 or 8 furlongs.

Breaking from the rail certainly didn't help Shackleford, but he just couldn't keep up with grade 1, 6 furlong speed.

The Vanderbilt was also an interesting lesson in pace. Before the race, had I told people that Shackleford would have trouble keeping up with the early leaders, most wouldn't have been too surprised. However, I speculate that many would have then assumed that Shackleford would have been able to make up ground on the field in the stretch, given his superior endurance.

However, Shackleford can get 8 and 9 furlongs running early fractions of 23, 46, 110. Going at that good clip, Shackleford can just keep rolling, running other speed into the ground. The ability to maintain what is for middle distances a quick yet steady pace is what makes Shackleford so tough.

However, the fractions Shackleford runs at middle distances are insufficient at 6 furlongs. Thus, Shackleford struggled to keep up early. And, because the pace was so much more demanding than he's used to, this failed early effort zapped him of energy and left him with little for the stretch.

One of the great surprises for me was when Acclamation made his first start going over 10 furlongs in the 2010 Jim Murray. At middle distances, Acclamation was a hard trying speed horse, but he continually lost ground through the stretch. He, therefore, seemed an unlikely candidate to relish 12 furlongs.

However, the reason Acclamation faded at middle distances is that, as a pace horse, he simply got tired running fractions of 23, 46, 110. At 12 furlongs, Acclamation found himself running alone going 25, 49, 113. What was discovered is that while Acclamtion tired running half miles in 46, he could gallop along at steady 24s for as long as needed. And that's something that few horses can do.

So, it should be back to middle distances, with a focus on the BC Dirt Mile, for Shackleford. And as I've been saying for a while, the best sprinter in North America just happens to be the defending BC and Eclipse champ, Amazombie. Not Shackleford, not The Factor, not Jackson Bend.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

LAZMANICK — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 21:42:42 GMT

Criminal Type it was three million. That was one exciting race. All the talk was Slew O’ Gold who came into the raced undefeated that year (5 for 5) and after having won the JCGC for the second year in a row, this time by just under ten lengths. Precisionist, then three, was in the beaten field and Gate Dancer, who was third, won the Preakness that year and came into the race after beating Precisionist in the 10F Louisiana Derby (he would finish second to Proud Truth in the ’85 BCC). Lots of bumping in the stretch run and one of the most exciting BCC’s ever.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Criminal Type — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 20:48:55 GMT

Laz, I loved Wild Again, I will never forget jumping up and down watching him win that race. Yes, 360K was I think the largest supplemental fee ever paid to get a horse in a race. I don't even recall what the purse for the race was. Was it a million then, the first one?

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Mary Zinke — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 19:48:24 GMT

Hard to tell with babies; the 2 looks good in the Best Pal, too.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Mary Zinke — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 19:26:55 GMT

Vanderbilt: 1,3/1,3,4,7/1,2,3,4,5,7/1,2,3,4,5,7

wps 3, s 5

Best Pal: I like the filly, Heir Kitty, best. Tough for a filly to beat the boys though. 5,4,8,7

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Kevin — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 18:31:37 GMT

Forget all of those picks. 30% chanc of isolated storms has turned into a monsoon and most of my horses are scratched.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

LAZMANICK — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 17:50:01 GMT

Talking about supplementing a horse to the Breeders Cup, the very first BC Classic winner, Wild Again, was supplemented at a cost of $360K. He came into the race after winning the G1 Meadowlands Cup at 10F defeating Canadian Factor in 2.00 3/5. However his race immediately preceding the BCC was a one mile allowance on the turf at Golden Gate and the best he could do was finish third. Was it any wonder that he was 30-1 in the BCC and won after a determined head-to-head battle throughout the stretch with Gate Dancer and Slew o’ Gold. That $360K gamble took a lot of guts.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Kevin — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 16:07:29 GMT

I thought there was a speed bias at Saratoga yesterday, not surprised RTG came up a little short. Agree he will move forward off of that, and maybe have better odds because of it.

My picks for Sunday at Saratoga.

Race 2 Pick 4: 1,9/2,5/6,7/8,10,11

Race 5 Pick 3: 8,10,11/2,4,6,8/3,9

Race 7: 9 WPS

Race 8 PIck 4: 6/8/2,4/2,11,13

Race 9 Pick 3: 8/2,4/2,11,13

Race 9: 8 WPS

Race 10: Tri Box 1,2,4 (I've bet against Shackelford since I lost a ton on him in the Derby; hasn't worked out for me betting on him or against him).

My best bets today are the 9 in the 7th and the 8 in the 9th. Both will be about 2-1.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Criminal Type — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 15:34:01 GMT

Pete, I was thinking the same thing about RTG. I've always had a soft spot for this horse because Ron was my sons name. He died of an athsma attack on Thanksgiving 09. I followed RTG at 3 and hoped he would have done better, but damn he has exploded into a top Handicap horse at 5. He is a perfect example of what we should be seeing at the track, horses racing beyond 3 and much better for it.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Criminal Type — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 15:24:07 GMT

I know I've said this before but Hansen should be pointing toward the King's Bishop not The Travers. He is a typical Tapit. Can't go long. Seven furlongs is a virtual lock for him, in my opinion anything more and it's iffy. His precocity is the only thing that got him the win in the 2011 BC juvi. Has he put together back to back wins in 2012? I don't think so, but I didn't look. I wasn't surprised he was 4th. Dr. Hansen, if your reading this (I know sometimes you do) Please, The greatest service you could do for your horse is to keep him at a mile or less. The field that beat him was average and your horse is better then that if you run him at his prefered distance. I was very happy to see Macho Macho win, I really like those grandsons of Holy Bull.

The Whitney was a shocker for me. I thought Ron the Greek would take it for sure, Kudos to Ft Larned and the connections on a nice win. Pete, nice analysis. I had Ron the Greek, Flat Out & Hymn Book, but se la vie. Never expected Ft Larned to get up for the win. I was screaming at the TV, get him Ron..haha

Ranagulzion, Just thought I would let you know, I've got an official invite to Fair Hill on Thursday this week. I will see Union Rag's and hopefully Teeth of the Dog, Lentenor, Margano and the Motion horses as well. I'm suppossed to get there early, 600-630 am and go directly to the clockers tower. Will have camara in hand...I am very excited to see Union Rag's before he ships out to Kentucky for his stud career. I love that horse and I still don't think we got to see his best race.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Saratoga AJ — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 15:23:48 GMT

Another good Whitney.

But let's face it, the highlight of yesterdays card was the Saratoga co-feature, the Prioress, where the great Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens did it again...another G-1 for the Chief. Very emotional scene in the winner's circle.

At the age of 21 he won his first race on July 4, 1950 at the Big A, and here we are 62 years later, and the man is still winning races, and G-1's to boot, despite his downsized stable. A true living legend.

And as the Chief said, he'll have that painted jockey by the Clubhouse gate next Summer, just like old times.

I had Emma last month at 39-1, and again yesterday even though I didn't think the pace scenario was in her favor after the late scratch of Jamaican Smoke. But never doubt the Chief.

Great ride by Alvarado. And of course a great training job by the master, who picked her up in February after she lost her first 3 career starts by a combined 26 lengths under her previous trainers. What else can you say?

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Pete Denk — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 15:02:36 GMT

He didn't hit the wire first, but Ron The Greek will be elevated to #1 on my BC Classic rankings.

I wouldn't mind if he runs well but loses his final prep too.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 14:31:15 GMT

Good call on the Whitney, Gun Bow. I would just like to point out (again) that Ron the Greek was giving weight to the field, 3 lbs. to the winner.

Don't get too excited about Amani in the BC Distaff; she's unlikely to run. Neither she nor her sire were likely to have been nominated and the supplementary fees are too high for all but the very wealthy. The BC was set up for the offspring of the upper and middle level US breeding concerns; foreigners, especially Southern Hemisphere types, and Cinderellas need not apply. Unless they can cough up mucho cash. I can name many a horse over the years who should have been in 'the' championship race for their division but weren't in the Breeders' Cup because of the supplemental fees.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

GunBow — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 08:10:05 GMT

Include Me out continues her excellent season out in California, affirming her place atop the Western older females with a win in the grade 1 Clement Hirsch. That's now 2 grade 1 wins on the year as well as 2 grade 2s. She might be the most accomplished horse few talk about.

However, I still don't know if she's a really an elite older female, whether from an historical perspective or compared with Eastern rivals like Royal Delta or Get Tricky.

First, I have serious concerns about Include Me Out at 9 furlongs(unless it's wet). The last sixteenth of the Vanity must certainly haunt Include Me Out's connections, because if it wasn't for that short bit of real estate their 4 year old is 5 for 5 on the year with 3 grade 1s.

For me, however, that final sixteenth of the Vanity was telling. Yes, Talamo moved too soon, which didn't help Include Me Out's chances in the stretch, but she went from moving extremely well on the turn to basically stopping; her last eighth approached 15 seconds and her 3 length lead turned into a 2.5 length defeat. And the filly that beat her, Love Theway Youare, is a grinder that has been smoked when facing the likes of Blind Luck.

Even in the Everett at 8.5 furlongs, Include Me Out was losing ground late to the equally distance challenged Ellafitz. And today, Include Me Out's apparently comfortable lead got real desperate late.

The best thing going for Include Me Out is that Santa Anita appears to be her favorite surface. Now a winner of graded stakes this year on dirt at Santa Anita, Cushion Track synth at Hollywood, and Polytrack synth at Del Mar, Include Me Out's easiest wins came at Santa Anita. Although likely aided by wet-fast conditions, Include Me Out easily beat Love Theway Youare at 9 furlongs in the Santa Margarita.

The other Hirsch top finishers should be heading separate ways. Star Billing should go back to turf, which is where she belongs once maintrack racing goes back to dirt. She should be a top contender to defend her title in the Matriarch. It's likely back to 7 furlongs for Switch, who once again came up short in a 2-turn grade 1.

With no disrespect to Include Me Out, the best Hirsch prospect for the BC Ladies Classic might be Amani. The Chilean star just wasn't quite cranked up enough to handle the speed of North American grade 1 horses. However, once she got rolling, she flew, and galloped out easily clear.

In Chile, Amani was a dirt filly, so the move to Santa Anita should suite her fine. And with wins going classic distances, the Hirsch was likely too short for her. The Lady's Secret, also at 8.5 furlongs, might again be a little short(Include Me Out should be a fairly solid favorite), but the 9 furlongs of the Ladies Classic will really play to her strengths. And as her 3rd start in North America, she should be ready for a peak effort.

After being lukewarm about the Hirsch and the West Coast older females in general, I'm genuinely excited about an Include Me Out-Amani matchup in the Lady's Secret.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

GunBow — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 07:22:45 GMT

Age of Reason:

Fort Larned had been so consistent except for the Foster. It's hard for horses, when they are dancing most of the dances, to run consistently well. And if one did throw the Foster, his Beyer figs, 108 in 3 races, were best in the field.

I also liked Fort Larned's speed and thought he could get a garden run sitting behind Trickmeister and Endorsement. Endorsement can't get 9 furlongs against gr.1 competition, and Trickmeister always finds a way to back up. That would leave Fort Larned on the lead, and with a win at 9.5 furlongs, I thought he could hold on well enough from there.

It's kind of musical chairs for the Eastern older horses. Fort Larned certainly moves up near the top of that group. His Beyers are so conistently good, and I expect at least a 108 for the Whitney. He now has a gr.1, 2 grade 3s, and a listed stakes win on the year.

However, I'm not sure he's the horse to watch from this race as it concerns the Breeder's Cup Classic. Although Fort Larned set the Gulfstream track record at 9.5 furlongs, I have doubts about him at 10 furlongs against other elite speed. While Fort Larned did win comfortably in the Whitney, it wasn't as comfortable as his jockey thought it was going to be at the sixteenth pole(read the chart notes for some unusual commentary).

What could be key to note about Fort Larned is that his two recent defeats, in the Alysheba and Foster, were similar not just because they were run over Churchill, but because they featured Nate's Mineshaft as a pace rival for Fort Larned. Nate's Mineshaft is a much more quality speed router than either Trickmeister or Endorsement. Fort Larned had a nice set up in the Whitney sitting behind speed that had no chance. While Nate's Mineshaft didn't run well in the Alysheba, that field also included the quality pace presser in Successful Dan. The Foster had Wise Dan as pace presser.

So, in both the Alysheba and Foster, Fort Larned had quality around him early and in the middle of the race, and it took something out of him in the stretch. In the Whitney, with Rule running poorly, the field was basically cheaper speed, Fort Larned as the only stalker, and then a bunch of closers. When the speed folded, Fort Larned was able to separate and get that mental breather he couldn't get in the Churchill races.

The problem for Fort Larned projecting forward to the Breeder's Cup is the potential presence of Game on Dude. Dude is classy early speed and middle speed/stalker rolled into one; he goes fast early and then just keeps going and going, doing to other speed and stalkers what the combo of Nate's Mineshaft and the Dans did in the Alysheba and Foster. Except for his races on turf-like synth, Game on Dude chews other speed up and spits them out. He did it to Gladding and Twirling Candy in last year's Big Cap, Tackleberry in the 11' Charlestown Classic, Twirling Candy again in the 11' Hollywood Gold Cup, Tres Borrachos in the Goodwood, Unlce Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Havre de Grace in the Breeder's Cup Classic, Uh Oh Bango in the San Antonio, and Morning Line in the Californian. Off hand, I can't think of a speed horse that's finished ahead of Game on Dude the last 2 years on dirt or Cushion Track.

However, Game on Dude's presence would be less critical if Fort Larned continues to relax as well as he did in the Whitney. However, the problem is that taken slightly off the pace or not, he will still have to get by Game on Dude, and that takes a lot of energy(both physical and mental). And if not Game on Dude, there's Bodemeister.

The Whitney horse I still like the most for the Classic is Ron the Greek. He ran another strong race in the Whitney, dropping far back before coming with a nice late run. He got a solid pace to run into, but he just didn't get the trip, being forced really wide, ironically be his stablemate. Ron is even more effective at 10 furlongs, and we know he likes Santa Anita.

Flat Out ran another encouraging race, but even though he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 10 furlongs, that race was at one-turn and I really don't know if Flat Out is a 2-turn 10 furlong horse. Also, while I think he's good enough to place in big races, there usually seems to be another horse that's just a little faster.

Hymnn Book is a weaker version of Ron, and I also have doubts about how effective his kick will be at 10 furlongs around 2-turns.

The problem with so many of these Eastern older horses is that so few have form at 10 furlongs around 2-turns.

Among the Eastern older horses:

1. Ron the Greek

2. Fort Larned

3. Mucho Macho Man

4. Wise Dan

5. Alternation

6. Nate's Mineshaft

7. Flat out

8. Hymn Book

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

JayJay — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 02:48:37 GMT

NIce picks Big Bux Bill and GunBow - if you put together your bets, you'd have the trifecta and superfecta lol but I'm quite sure you both hit the tri and super separately.

If that race was run again, I still wouldn't have Fort Larned in my tickets, and yes, I'd lose again lol. I still think RTG is the best horse in that race, 12 lengths back and fanned maybe 6 or 7 wide at the top of the stretch and kept coming. Not taking anything away from Fort Larned, he was the sharpest horse in the race, Brian rode him briliantly.

re: Ron the Greek should prove best in Whitney

Mary Zinke — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 01:37:13 GMT

Yeah, wps Include Me Out, show wager on Star Billing, exacta box of 1,3,7, .10 super. Small winnings, but I'm happy.