Breaking down the Arlington Million

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Todos — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 01:37:27 GMT

Sadly your readers didn't seem to know about my Todos giveaway which was announced Thurs. preceding on Twitter - they would have had a good day -> summary of results:

http://todosstat.com

Todos is the only tool in N.A. that rates Euros and N.Americans on a standard scale - hence we picked up the 3 Euros that won 4 of the major races ... along with 5 other winners on the card including the $80 winner in the last race.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Weekend — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 20:25:47 GMT

just want to give you all a horse to look out for, Top Priority. He is a full brother to Tiz Miz Sue, A tiznow out of Sue's Good News. Tiz Miz Sue just lost to Royal Delta by a head. He is training well at Monmouth for Hobby, they hope to get him on the track soon. put him in your virtual stable.

Secondly, Jaycito at 12-1 is a great price. Yeah, GOD and RK are deserving favorites, buy Jaycito will be closing. This is not Santa Anita...

Ever So Lucky in the Kings Bishop should be rolling as well. 3rd off a layoff, cutting back in distance

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

JayJay — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 16:33:57 GMT

Mary : Yeah, totally agree. It's why I like this blog. I get to see other people's picks and post my losing picks hehe.

What about that run by Frankel eh ? I think that's a pretty good group he destroyed. If he runs in the Breeder's Cup, I'm going. I haven't seen the race but the BH article made it sound like it was an easy and very impressive win, drawing off with one furlong to go and winning by 7 ? I'm officially a fan, wanted to see how he'll do at 10F... now I want to see him run outside of UK :)

It's funny that during the prep races for the Derby, there were too many things going with Alpha that I thought he wasn't even going to make the Derby. Now he's pretty much the only one left from the top contenders, the rest are injured or retired or both.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Criminal Type — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 12:08:25 GMT

Matthew, I too think that about Spectacular Bid. I saw him win his Preakness in person while sitting on top of the infield fence screaming GO BID ! I saw him years later when he had turned nearly white. He was indeed Spectacular and only got better at 4.I can't remember another walkover winner in my lifetime. He was quite dark gray, as were Unbridleds Song, Holy Bull, Monarchos, Skip Away and Native Dancer in their youth. Look at Silver Charm, he is nearly white as snow. Look for Old Fashioned, Paddy O'Prado and Macho Again to do the same thing. Even horses of other color, with at least one gray parent will lighten up as they age, case in point, Medaglia D'Oro..His dapples are becoming more pronounced as he ages.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Criminal Type — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 11:52:52 GMT

Pete, Can you please give your analysis on the Ballston Spa and your opinion of Summer Soiree. I really like her but given her long layoff, she might need a race before she regains her form from last season. Her Bourbonette Oaks score was spectacular but I don't know how she measures up against this group (tapitsfly, heavenly landing, hungry island and zagora)but she was closing when she finished second in the Matriach. I like Acting Happy as a longshot. This is a good group of turf fillies and will be hard to handicap.

I could care less about the Travers as I am disgusted by the retirements of 4 of our top 3 yr olds and the illness of another. IHA was probably the most ligitimate of those retirements based on his conformation. Union Rag's and Bodemeisters retirements were suspect in the fact that the horses could have rehabbed and returned at 4 to lay it down, but noooo, the owners jumped right on those stud fee's. For the record, I think both of those horses could have been spectacular 4 yr olds and had not seen the best of either. Paynter has been ill, not sure if he is recovered or not, but dissapointing he won't be in the race off of his Haskell win. Then we have Hansen..and I say this in the horses best interest in mind. I have always thought that the owners were racing this horse beyond his limitations. Yes, he was brilliant as a 2 yr old but not so much as a 3 yr old and as the year progressed it was clear to me, that he wasn't going to be a classic distance horse. I think this is a case where the owner's wishes and ego overrode the trainers advise like a mack truck, and while I will miss the excitement of watching him fly in front of everyone else, but not the trepidation of knowing he was going to hit a wall at about 8 to 9 furlongs. I will be glad that the horse retires with only a tendon injury and nothing more serious. He would have been unbeatable in the King's Bishop ala Hard Spun.

I'll take Neck N Neck in the Travers.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Matthew W — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 00:57:17 GMT

Tiz The Route hopped and lost seven lengths, then rushed up, then almost won the final race, only to be dq'd to third--a tough beat for me, as I had him, bigtime across the board, but that is horse racing! It could have been much (much!) worse for me, as I had an all/7,11/7,11 tri and the 11, who he impeded, could've finished 4th, thus negating ANY winnings whatsoever--so I'll take what luck comes my way, and live to fight another day!

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Matthew W — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 19:12:14 GMT

Ouch! Hanses was gonna soften things up for Liason this weekend! He wasn't a 1 1/4 horse--no way was he ever gonna win The Travers, but he was a nice horse, and I thought his tail looked just fine without the paint! He reminded me, in looks, of Vigors, the "White Tornado", I was present, right on the apron at the finish line, when he ran down Mr Redoy in the '78 Big Cap, what a come from behind performance that was! Something about a white horse, all greys turn white, the bestest horse I ever saw, Spectacular Bid, was an ordinary looking, leggy, steel grey, who turned white and anything but ordinary looking in his old age, he was a runnin' machine, and he knew who he was, too, "The Greatest Horse To Look Through a Bridle", to quote Bud Delp, and he was right!

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Matthew W — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 18:52:43 GMT

Winners HO: Saratoga: Race 8: #'s 2 Bluember (7-2) and 8 Just For Today (15-1) are both live shooters! Race 9 I LOVE the #3 Zivo (3-1), and race 10 #4 Krissy Kat (8-1), and I doubt I'll get the 8-1 on her--also I thinl the #5 horse, 1st timer Snookie Slew (15-1) is worth a small saver as I think she may be live, as well....over at Del Mar, there's less to love today, Race 2 #7 Half Dome Dude (8-1) is way too high at 8-1 and I will pounce if I get anything near that!...Race 5 #5 Jules Journey (6-1) I love on the pace...race 6 is wide open, but I fancy the #6 Suances Vixen (6-1), along with #1 Budinha, and do not sell Mr Arias short in here (#3 Pennies From Denny (20-1), the July 29th mdn 20k race was strong and he came right bace 12 days later to score, there is MUCH value in this horse and I have included her in my pick 4's and exactas...race 7 I like #4 Flashy Dame, 'think I';; get more than the 3-1 morning line and I think she may just wire the field, she loses Bejarano but to get Talamo on the speed is not a downgrade! Race 8 I like #7 Tiz The Route (8-1) and #11 Huntington Harbor (7-2), good luck to all, I feel fairly confident right now, and I hope I feel even better AFTER the races!

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Weekend — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 13:28:59 GMT

first bode, now hansen retired?? WTF

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Mary Zinke — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 05:24:31 GMT

Jay Jay, I just thought this was a blog in which picks are given with reasons for them from a handicapper's point of view based on PP's and other pertinent information and that any wagering is done at one's own risk. Also, that it's a place for the readers to post their pre-race picks and rejoice or commiserate over the results.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

JayJay — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 03:56:25 GMT

Mary Zinke : LOL at your last post.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Mary Zinke — Tue, 21 Aug 2012 17:25:54 GMT

Where are your picks, long nose? (Highly edited.)

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

By a long nose — Tue, 21 Aug 2012 14:52:11 GMT

Pete, are they paying you to hand out all these losing picks to the public?

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

JayJay — Tue, 21 Aug 2012 03:49:29 GMT

Matthew W : That was a nice price on the 5 horse - off at 9-1. As for that 12 horse, I actually looked at the horse but saw it was Arias riding, I was looking for a longshot on the first leg and thought Nak Nak has probably the best shot with the 13 horse (by Scrimshaw). If I hadn't noticed Arias, I probably would've taken the 12 and enjoying 2400.00 now since I would've had the 5 out of 6 on my 4 horses in the last leg.

I'll have a look at Hammer this Friday, don't bet too much though, I want some value hehe.

FYI : Richard's Kid was sold recently and no longer trained by Baffert. He's now in the Doug O'Neill barn, which really won't make a difference as Doug is a pretty good trainer. Just not sure how things go as far as changing barns just before the Pacific Classic. Super Mario will probably be on him.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Matthew W — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 21:22:14 GMT

Jay Jay I loved that Robanier colt in the last yesterday, (I Run For Fun), I pay close attention to the Robanier's, he had only run once, vs a strong winner, and he passed four in the stretch and galloped out real well--that horse is a playback who should really enjoy turf and distance! Halo Dolly cost me a huge double, as I had the neck loser Unusual Heatwave--I also looked closely at that #12 in the 4th race--jockey Arias also won on Friday ($76), and he was on a live 1st timer for Canani yesterday (3rd and showed bigtime speed)---alas, I, too didn't pull the trigger on the #12, I could tell early on that I was gonna be regretting that omission, as he was in the "MaCarron position", third on the outside! That "strong winner" who I Run For Fun faced in his debut race, Hammer The Bay, returns Friday, from the two hole with Garcia, so he'll be sent hard--if it's cooler I will hammer Hammer--but this excessive heat makes that track tougher to win on the pace, especially at 6 1/2....

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Matthew W — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 20:50:55 GMT

Pet Peeve # 2172: I played a pick three the other day at Del Mar....I went five horses/by one horse/bythree horses...my single in the middle leg was scratched, but because I did not hit leg #3, I wasn't awarded a refund--the track says "you would not have won"--I understand that, but, with the scratch of my ONLY horse in middle leg, I COULD not have won!

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Matthew W — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 20:45:33 GMT

I was pleasantly moonwalking to the cashier's window as Little Mike cantered down the Arlington backstretch! I hoped the same fate would befall the ultra-game Winning Machine in the Longacres Mile, but he needed one more stride to come bace on the rail--that was the slowest pace in recent memory, as far as the first 1/4 goes, in the 'Mile...Awesome Gem was unfortunate, he was certainly the best horse, but what a money rider is Mario Guitierez, he is the real deal! Questing ran lights out in the Alabama, she is the BC Favorite as of right now, for the Ladies Classic...and Winding Way, if she dirts, looks like any kind of sprinter, I had Sugarinthemorning, and I was counting my winnings at the head of the stretch! I know there are big races this upcoming weekend, just not sure the males will be able to match the performances I saw out of those two fillies, Questing and Winding Way, this past weekend! Baffert is loaded for the Pacific Classic, of his three I like Richard's Kid, who will (once again) fetch a pretty price--I had him both times he won the Pac Classic, (24-1 and 9-2), and I'll box him with my pick to win the race outright: Suggestive Boy, for Big Mac, who can bring a horse up to a big race as good as anybody who has ever saddled a thoroughbred--he "likes his chances"--that's enough for me! I like Baffert in the Travers, (Liason), and the Dorf, (Nonios), this is the year of the West Coast Three Year Olds! Despite being a West Coaster all the way, for me, The Travers remains the "Greatest Two Minutes" in horse racing, the Midsummer Derby, for my money, trumps the Kentucky Derby, you only need to compare the winners of both races to see that! My weekend betting highlight was another of my favorite races, the (underrated) Del Mar Oaks, and I hit the trifectta with my four horse box--I came in ist/2nd/3rd/4th, I loved Stormy Lucy, she is a top class turf filly, a former claimer, she can hold her vs any filly or mare at 1 1/4 over turf! It took the very best three year old turf filly to beat her, and she wasn't beaten by much. A nice debut at Del Mar for the two year old filly Madame Cactus for Peter Eurton, she looks like a future stakes winner, she didn't win, but she looked real nice finishing up, and she should win easy next out....

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

JayJay — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 04:16:41 GMT

Mary : Yeah, I was focused on Halo Dolly the whole race, saw her go wide, but I knew she would get there. Reminded me of the queen :)

Yes, I had the 6. I had 13-1-2-6,9-9 with 3,7,8,11...oh it still hurts lol.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Mary Zinke — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 02:28:09 GMT

Good thing the 5 was scratched in the 7th at Del Mar. The tip was on the 6 not the 5 and I guess you had her anyway, Jay Jay. Nice win by Halo Dolly in the Solana Beach. I loved the ride Joe Talamo gave her--so patient.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

JayJay — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 01:25:03 GMT

Dr. D : Yeah, saved some :)

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

JayJay — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 01:24:14 GMT

Well, had a good run for 5 out of 6. I had the 13 (24-1) in the first leg instead of the damn 12. I had the next 4 winners and had 4 horses on the last leg 3, 7, 8 and 11. All that for nothing! lol

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 01:19:11 GMT

JayJay

Remember: A penny saved is a penny earned.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Kevin — Sun, 19 Aug 2012 19:59:49 GMT

Jay Jay,

Thanks for the explanation. Guess I shouldn't have been yelling so hard for the 2. 8 finished 2d by a head. Would have paid more I guess.

Have 2d itus at Saratoga today. Haven't gotten a single leg of my rolling Pick 3s right.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Mary Zinke — Sun, 19 Aug 2012 17:29:02 GMT

The 7th is a baby race. Check out the 5(tip on her), 6(trainer 1st time starter stat), 8(dam's winners stat) and 9(fav, just beaten a head last time). 4 and 5, have good points, too. GL. Sorry, no singles for you, Jay Jay.

re: Breaking down the Arlington Million

Mary Zinke — Sun, 19 Aug 2012 17:04:39 GMT

Tough DM card for me today, Jay Jay. In the Rancho Bernardo, the 6th, I like Home Sweet Aspen, Sugarinthemorning, and Glamorista.

In the 5th:

Party With Brando ran better w/Maldonado; Collating Lady, and Ambitioness.