Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Scidney — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 19:57:07 GMT

I love when an "unknown/underdog" wins. Good going to the connections of V.E. Day! And on that note, I truly enjoyed your article on 'Dark Secret'. Let's champion him for inclusion to the Hall of Fame. Let me know what to do , how to start, etc. I'm certain he'll get in.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

JayJay — Fri, 31 Aug 2012 07:33:57 GMT

I've decided to follow Know More and Palace Malice, I like Know More's only win in the Best Pal. That was a nice grinding run. Reminded me of IHA, same connections as well.

I haven't seen any of Palace Malice's race(s) but I like his pedigree...

Spurious Precision is another Dixie Union horse, never thought his babies can get the 10F and I still believe it. I think this horse will probably be another miler that will run in the TC crown because he'll win a bunch of 2 yr old races.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Ranagulzion — Fri, 31 Aug 2012 02:40:17 GMT

Lazmanick,

Based upon your comment "one thing that I’ve always been leery about with early season two-year old sensations is that in their early races they blast out of the gate and run as fast as they can" it seems you should be quite impressed with Todd Pletcher's 2YO Archwarrior, in his winning debut. I thought that it was a good winning effort for a 2YO son of Arch but I dont see him as a sensation at this stage. I will concur with DRF's Mike Watchmaker that Spurious Precsion is top dog among the 2YO ranks and if he stretches out successfully in the Champgne the sky's the limit.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

LAZMANICK — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 20:22:21 GMT

Ranagulzion:

Mike Watchmaker really likes Spurious Precision. He has him rated at the top of his two year-old listing. So far his immediate sire and dam show sprint. His dam, Scarlet Combo, won 4 of 7, but with no stakes wins; and her sire, Scarlet Ibis, was a four time stakes winner, but three were in sprints and in the New York Stakes program. His sire, High Cotton, is a G3 at winner at 8.5F and is a relatively young sire. So far his best has been Currency Swap (G1), also a sprinter. There is lots of stamina in his pedigree and his DI and CD suggest that he will be able to stretch out, but the one thing that I’ve always been leery about with early season two-year old sensations is that in their early races they blast out of the gate and run as fast as they can. No rating tactics are applied at a time when a horse should be taught how to rate properly to conserve his speed and energy. Consequently most of them don’t reach the same level when they stretch out at three.

Spurious Precision might have some of the same qualities as Union Rags, but if you go back and check Rag’s first three races you’ll see that in the first he came from 7th place and in the Champagne he came from 5th, no 44 halves or 109 three quarters.

JMHO.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Ranagulzion — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 18:20:23 GMT

Keleerman, Lazmannick & jay jay,

I like the discussion on 2YOs. Archwarrior is all the rage among railbirds but so far he'll have to be the real deal to win me over from the Saratoga Special winner, Spurious Precision. This colt has lots of qualities that I like and saw in Union Rags last. SP has incredible speed, lots of stamina in his broodmare's family and multiple crosses of Hyperion top and bottom. Keep watching this colt because his schedule takes him to the Champagne next and then the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

LAZMANICK — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 17:23:01 GMT

Kellerman

O’Prado Again’s time in the Remsen wasn’t all that fast, 1.52.07 for 9F, especially when compared to other stakes on the card: To Honor and Serve winning the Cigar in 1.33.89 and Awesome Feather the Gazelle in 1.50.01. But we can’t forget that these were older G1 winners and O’Prado Again was just starting his stakes career. Even so his Remsen was better than a second faster than Disposable Please in the Demoiselle, and he won rather easily. His DRF caption states that he was three wide around both turns (which I remember from watching the race) and that he was bumped hard at the start and that he drew away with his final individual 8th in 12.26 and final 3/8ths in 36.72. What does this suggest? To me it suggests that he is going to be very good on dirt and with all his recorded works going back to July 7 (8 works) at Churchill I think that his connections realize what his best surface is. Even so, he appears to have the talent to be good on multi surfaces and if their long range plans are a Dubai World Cup then we can expect to see him on Poly at Keeneland.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

-Keelerman — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 16:34:00 GMT

Lazmanick;

I think that O'Prado Again could prove fairly versatile in regards to preferred racing surface, given that his sire is El Prado. This is a stallion that has sired major dirt stars Medaglia d'Oro and Borrego, as well as turf champion Kitten's Joy and Breeders' Cup Mile winner Artie Schiller.

O'Prado Again has already shown some versatility, having broken his maiden going nine furlongs on the Keeneland Polytrack before winning the Remsen on dirt. I think he will end up like Dullahan; brilliant on one surface, excellent on another, and good enough to handle some variations of a third. But which surface he likes best -- synthetic, turf, and dirt -- is open to question. What do you think?

JayJay;

Following the juveniles is a lot of fun, especially if you happen to witness the debut of a future grade I stakes winner.

You might want to take a look at today's third race at Saratoga, where Todd Pletcher has entered the highly-regarded Archwarrior. During this Saratoga meet, Pletcher has sent out a number of super-promising two-year-olds, but this one is supposedly the very best of his group. And being a son of Arch out of a Seeking the Gold mare, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see this colt's best until he gets older and the distances stretch out. If he stays sound, he could be a legitimate classic contender next year.

-Keelerman

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

JayJay — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 04:46:46 GMT

Thanks Keelerman! That's good to hear, looks like the rematch I've been waiting for might actually come to fruition. Alpha and Gemologist, I'm not counting the derby which is where they last met. Now I'm not so opposed to Alpha running in the Penn Derby if Gemologist will be there.

I don't recall O'Prado Again at all but then again, I normally don't pay much attention to the baby races other than betting them because we all know what happens. They start their 3 yr old season and someone declares them the TC winner before they even run one race, the horse doesn't perform and the excuses comes flooding.

I will challenge myself and will try and keep an eye on the baby races and see if I can pick the next IHA or even a Shackleford, a good solid horse.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Matthew W — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 02:25:12 GMT

Late pick 4 today at Del Mar---two favorites won and it still paid 63k!

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

LAZMANICK — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 18:55:49 GMT

Kellerman

It’s funny you mention O’Prado Again. I know all about this guy. I remember betting him in that Remsen. He was something like 12-1 in the morning line and immediately opened at 2-1 and stayed there for quite a while (the reason that I bet him) before finally going off at 7-1; and this with El Padrino, who was coming off a win, the favorite (Speightscity ran also). I remember when he made his move he ran right past El Padrino and won fairly easy, going away. And then, forever what reason, that was it. I think that he was on Haskins Derby Trail for a while, but then he was taken out of training. Like you, I’m waiting for his return. He was pretty impressive in that Remsen. His time wasn’t all that fast, but it was a full second faster than the Demoiselle run on the same day. The question now is, what is his best surface.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

-Keelerman — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 17:51:33 GMT

Lazmanick;

I'm afraid I don't know much about Discreet Dancer. He was officially taken off the Derby trail in late March and sent to Ocala for some rest, but I haven't heard anything about him since then.

Here is a link to a DRF.com article on the subject: www.drf.com/.../gulfstream-park-discreet-dancer-kentucky-derby-trail-getting-break

One colt that I do know something about is O'Prado Again, winner of last year's Remsen Stakes. He has been back in training for a while now, most recently breezing a half-mile in a bullet :59 4/5 at Churchill Downs on August 25th.

Trainer Dale Romans stated a while back that the long-term goal was to send O'Prado Again and Dullahan to Dubai for the Dubai World Cup. While this might seem like a bold plan for a colt that hasn't even raced since November, Romans also stated that he felt O'Prado Again was more talented than Dullahan. Only time will tell what kind of colt O'Prado Again turns out to be, but I am anxiously awaiting his return.

-Keelerman

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Pete Denk — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 17:37:09 GMT

Linda and Dr. Drunkinbum, thank you for the comments, I am glad you guys liked the link. It's a bit esoteric for some, but I think the horse's mind is so important to athletic performance.

Maybe I'll have Kerry on the blog sometime this fall. He is a mad genius for sure.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

LAZMANICK — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 17:24:49 GMT

Kellerman......good news about Gemologist in what has been a devastating year (health wise) for what was originally a pretty good three year old crop. He was always one of my favorites as was Discreet Dancer. Any news about him?

JayJay I think that the World Cup is the long range plan for Dullahan. When you think about his prowess on synthetics, it’s actually pretty amazing. Here’s a horse that has never won a maiden race, allowance race or even a low level stakes race. He has three lifetime wins and they are all in G1 races. I see now that in spite of the fees paid BCC invitation they earned with their Pacific Classic win they’re contemplating trying him on turf and, if successful, maybe running him in a BC Turf race. I always maintained that he would be exceptional in route races on turf when he matured and I hope that they at least try him on it, if not to get it out of their system, at least to get it out of mine.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

-Keelerman — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 12:45:33 GMT

JayJay;

Gemologist came out of the Haskell Invitational with a lung infection, but he is already back in training and is pointing toward a potential start in the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) on September 22nd.

-Keelerman

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

JayJay — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 07:28:22 GMT

Laz : Yes, I too am looking forward to his return, I'm hoping he's all fine and continues to race next year. I was really excited when Gemologist came back but one big race, and seems he's MIA again. I'm still waiting for Went The Day Well, El Padrino and Creative Cause to come back. Hopefully we'll see them run next year. I'm excited at your horse Dullahan, if he stays on sythetics or grass, there's a good likelihood they'll run him as a 4 yr old to win the Dubai World Cup :)

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

LAZMANICK — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 06:01:59 GMT

JayJay Baffert seems to be having it particularly tough. Fed Biz, Bode and now Paynter. At least the Biz is coming back and maybe he can set things straight. Many think he was Baffert's best three year old this year until his injury. Looking forward to his return even if it is on synthetics.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

JayJay — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 05:03:09 GMT

Here we go again... it's like a broken record. He's been sent to the "clinic", who wants to make a bet that Paynter will be retired before Friday next week. What is up with these horses ?? They can't even survive one full year of racing.

They should all be gelded!!!! lol or a new rule that they can't breed unless they run 3 full season. That's not much to ask is it ?

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 23:29:55 GMT

Oh yeah, thanks Linda for reminding me. Forgot to thank Pete for that special link. Best new site I've seen in awhile. I have always been into the physicality and readiness to race even before I read Bonnie Ledbetter, and Joe Takach, two that I learned from. I am really looking forward to kentuckyconfidential for The Derby. Sorry I didn't know about it before. Thanks for the link Pete. I knew from the beginning that this blog would be special. Will have to get the Kerry Thomas book sometime. Linda- Check out joe-takach.com and read the physicality mini-course on the left.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

Linda in Texas — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 22:08:51 GMT

Pete i had no idea there was anything like you and Kerry Thomas are into. Thank you so much for the link. I feel like Alice in Wonderland, truly. Amazing. Here all along i thought i was peculiar.

It has opened another door for me to help clear some cob webs out of unused parts of my brain and fill them with new ways to study and parallel my admiration of and for horses.

To read some of Kerry's statements about I'll Have Another is like rehashing thoughts i have

often when observing horses. When i saw Lava Man and I'll Have Another together it was like watching two old friends walking side by side with a common understanding of what they are and what was expected of them and they never said a word to each other. It was just a given between them.

Thanks Pete. Awesome.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 17:14:04 GMT

The Woodward ok LUNAR SPOOKIE

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

lunar spook — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 16:06:56 GMT

in case anyone dosent know it yet KY VET is a pro handicapper and he knows horses if you dont believe it check out his last 50 posts, hes a legend ! ( eyes rolling )

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

lunar spook — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 15:24:29 GMT

CHIEF PICANOWINNAS- MY WOODWARD PICKS WILL BE POSTE BEFORE THE RACE ! WILL YOURS ?

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 00:11:49 GMT

BTW LUNAR SPOOKY YOU ARE THE REINCARNATION OF DRAYNAY.LIKE I SAID PICK YOUR RACE AND MAKE YOUR PICK.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 00:06:39 GMT

Lunar spooky I won the 9-7 exacta in the Preakness but I never posted that on here.The last pick I posted on here was on Locksmiths blog.If you like to compete I will have a contest with you.

re: Travers Weekend: Mid-Summer Derby bears little resemblance to Kentucky

KY VET — Mon, 27 Aug 2012 20:43:13 GMT

Dont run hurt horses? This is why i make money.....almost all of you on here dont even understand this game.........i said he came out of the race w a puffy ankle, didnt say he was hurt...this is the whole game people! you would have never seen ill have another win the derby , if you only ran horses with no problems....they almost all have problems...especially my 8 yr old.....this is the game! and yes, we are moving up in class because he is improving. I bet on 50 races a day, trust me.......i make a living at this game