30% takeout and the PA Derby

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Sid Halley #7 — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 22:24:36 GMT

I enjoy the racing at Parx but rarely bet because of the Takeouts. i used to play Parx on Monday and Tuesday but have switched to DEL and FL to avoid the takeout. Over time the 5% additional takeout on WP bets makes a big difference.

Parx also needs to clean up their backstretch. the percentage of cheaters is also higher.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Atdwya — Thu, 11 Jul 2013 17:04:37 GMT

Hasn't there been enough rhetoric about gouging takeout rates. The folks in horse racing who can make a difference need to do just that. Stop betting on these tracks that hijack you without a weapon. If you don't like what they're doing, don't bet it. We keep going round-and-round with this issue and in 2013 it's still business as usual and these tracks are flourishing. No more whining!

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

JayJay — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 16:58:40 GMT

Keelerman : Yeah, thanks to Rusty's tip of the weather in NY this weekend, it'll be a doozy if it comes up wet. I'll probably post all my picks on Saturday morning just to make it simple. There are two races where it doesn't really matter to me how the track plays. I think RTG is going to dominate the JCGC, With the field all carrying 126, I think the greek just has the advantage with his typical sustained run in the stretch. I don't think Fort Larned will get the lead to himself, if there's an upset, I'm looking at Fast Falcon to do it.

The other race is the FrontRunner, Know More is just getting better and his switch to dirt will be something to watch but I think he's the best in this field.

I also want to mention that Point Of Entry will have a televised paid workout this weekend.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

-Keelerman — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 14:01:44 GMT

JayJay;

Personally, I don't think anyone will mind if you post your picks one by one, but that's up to Pete. I myself am going to wait until the early races on the cards are run, to see how the track is playing.

-Keelerman

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

THE KEYMASTER — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 13:57:27 GMT

I welcome any challengers, but I will not relinquish the key to anyone but The Gatekeeper.

Seems like PipeDope must write for the NY Times since Quarter Horse racing is being used to make comparisons regarding Thoroughbred racing.

I suspect had Hialeah been offering 12% takeout in all pools on Thoroughbreds, handle would have likely been the highest in the country.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

JayJay — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 05:40:41 GMT

PipeDope : Do you bet the races at Hialeah ? Before Pete wrote this blog, I had no idea about the takeouts, now I know more about it. I've been educated by this particular blog.

How do you propose educating the new fans and make them come back ? I'll tell you, if you tell the new fans "Hey, before you start betting these horses, you will be required to attend a 3 day course of how the whole horse racing industry works, how much money the tracks take out of the pool, how this.. how that... " , they'll probably leave even before they make their first bet and never come back. I'm not sure what your whole point is really...

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

JayJay — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 05:10:50 GMT

Keelerman : Just an FYI, I don't funble, I may hit the wall or walk off a cliff but I don't fumble! :) How late can one post their picks to be counted in the challenge ? Can I post my picks for each race 15 minutes before the race or do I need to have them posted before the first G1 runs ? I'm better if I can see the odds hehe.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

PipeDope — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 00:32:34 GMT

Keymaster, "trying to educate people" isn't killing horse racing:

NOT EDUCATING (newcomers) is what IS killing horse racing!!!

Can you people not get it through your thick skulls that, in 1981, there was win, place, show, and not much else.

Mere guessing gave you a 1-in-10 chance of matching the high roller's win/rate-of-return on a win bet, and a 3-in-10 chance of matching his rate of return on a show bet.

NOW, the high-rollers OPT (as in "CHOOSE") TO go for the HIGHER TAKEOUT wagers, suddenly leaving the newcomer with a microscopic chance of duplicating the high-roller's winning bet with a mere guess.

Horse racing is evolving only in the direction of its death, and NONE OF YOU can even see the arm (of racing's own) which you are collectively chewing off!!!

As for Hialeah, it was the measure of EVERYTHING a couple of years ago when it floated the MORONIC experiment that was 12% takeout in every pool. These same people here who are now crowing about "takeout" being too high, didn't make any effort at all to wager at Hialeah when they had the lowest takeout on the continent. It was a FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAILURE (as most anybody with any true understanding knew it would be).

And Pete merely "pointing out" the PA takeout has no effect on racing at all. The tiny sliver of all horseplayers who even know about takeout, already knew of PA's large cut.

On the other hand, Pete telling of "how much (he) wins" at the end of any given year assures that HE IS CENTRAL to racing's demise, based on Pete's personal impact on the newcomers' effective takeout rate and the result of their not wanting to stay around for very long.

As reported earlier this year, takeout in TURKEY is FIFTY-PERCENT and their wagering is INCREASING!!

Raw takeout rates as listed in North American track programs and the like HAVE NOTHING TO DO with why horse racing has been in freefall over the past couple of decades. They are effectively CONSTANTS, and not VARIABLES, so the sensible mind would be LOOKING ELSEWHERE for the culprits.

Racing's complete bungling of the then-new simulcast technology has been far, FAR more central to today's downfall than has anything related to takeout.

Now first GET OUT OF YOUR OWN WAY.

And then GET IT RIGHT.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

-Keelerman — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 17:41:04 GMT

JayJay;

You may try and steal the key from Keymaster if you wish . . . but I will be right behind you to snatch it away should you fumble! :)

Rusty Weisner;

Thanks for the tip regarding the weather at Belmont on Saturday. Assuming that rain drenches the turf course during the coming days, it will mark the fifth consecutive year that the Super Saturday turf races are held over a course labeled yielding or soft.

Perhaps that's one of the reasons why the winners of the Flower Bowl and the Joe Hirsch have not done well in recent Breeders' Cup races.

-Keelerman

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

JayJay — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 16:40:14 GMT

Thanks KEYMASTER, totally agree. I'm not sure what PipeDope was crowing about but his/her reasoning is just ridiculous.

Because of this blog, quite a few more people are now aware of the takeouts, I don't know how Pipe turned this around into a negative and then used it as a reason new fans are not coming back.

This weekend's racing is just absolutely awesome. Looking forward to my baby horse Know More, I think he'll win easily, maybe not much but he'll do it easily. RTG will dominate the JCGC in my opinion.

I'll join the handicapping party, sounds like fun. I'll try to steal the key from Bill hehe.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 16:00:53 GMT

Who is this guy and why should Hialeah be a measure of anything? Weren't they running quarter horses there for a two-week stretch or something? Moderator?

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

THE KEYMASTER — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 14:34:47 GMT

Darn Pete, I didn't know you were reponsible for the slow death of racing by pointing out the exuberant takeout charged by PA tracks in the tri pool.

Most people I meet that don't go back to the track say it is because that they feel they have little to no chance of winning... mainly because they feel that all racehorses are full of drugs (which unfortunately is somewhat true. These people are tired of losing bets to horses like those trained by Richard Dutrow that have form reversals out of nowhere.

The next most popular reason I hear from people who don't go back to the track is they don't understand the wagering and pools. I always explain to them on how the differnt pools work and how you are not playing against a house, just the other people (and computers) wagering on the races. I then explain takeout is the way the tracks make their money, not on losing wagers. Most people are comforted by this and don't mind paying a little into takeout.

However, 30% is exuberant and ridiculous. I think that is what Pete was pointing out in this post.

What is wrong with trying to educate people??? Educating the public is NOT what is killing horse racing. It is all the shady people in racing that want to hide the truth about racing from the general public. Eliminating race day medication, transparency, education, and terminating the shady people in the business that do not want to adhere to this are the only things that are going to save this great sport.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

PipeDope — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 12:35:37 GMT

Pete, as I suggested:

"Get off this takeout idiocy!"

"19%" is THE SAME in 2012 as it was in 1972, or 1988.

How about we focus instead on the reasons why brand new fans won't come back a 2nd and 3rd time? And "takeout" certainly isn't included among them (excepting venues where you can get better food from the take-out pizza place down the road).

The reasons brand new fans won't return to racing venues for a 2nd and 3rd visit ARE, by and large, THE VERY PEOPLE YOU SEE HERE COMPLAINING ABOUT 'TAKEOUT'!!!

Who ever bothered to need to complain about "takeout" in 1981? Racing was flush with fans all across the spectrum, the breeding business was on the upswing, as were the mutuels.

In 2012 it is precisely beCAUSE of today's regulars who are complaining about "takeout", that brand new people want NOTHING TO DO with horse racing.

You said it yourself - "takeout has a direct impact on how much money we win as bettors".

Each time you and others of your ilk WIN, (while keeping track of your bets for a year), THE EFFECTIVE TAKEOUT ON NEWCOMERS goes UP another notch!!!

In brief: YOU ARE the PROBLEM. Now a solution will never be found until you and others of your ilk get out of the way!!!

May I suggest a nice Hialeah vacation this winter as a start?? See if they'll bring back the 12% across-the-board takeout for you, just to have you around. They don't even do that anymore BECAUSE YOU WOULDN'T SUPPORT IT. You and others of your ilk continue to spout this NONSENSE and then you simply won't put your money where your mouths are.

On behalf of the rest of us:

Thanks for nothing!

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Pete Denk — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 02:07:49 GMT

Pipedope-

Takeout has a direct impact on how much money we win as bettors.

Keep track of your bets for a year, then calculate how much 19%Take vs 30%Take changes your churn and your bottom line.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

PipeDope — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 00:49:11 GMT

This collection of responses basically underscores the findings last year that "fewer than 2% of horse players even KNOW about takeout". These are the hard-core, industry types, and they don't have a clue fairly often, so who would believe that the run-of-the-mill fan would give a (you-know-what) about TAKEOUT??

Get off of this "takeout" idiocy... brought to you first by a collection of fools who got together under a four-letter word, and swore up and down they were going to completely boycott higher takeout tracks, and completely support lower takeout tracks.

Well, years later, the California takeout increase has been widely accepted with greater mutuels receipts to prove it. Hialeah's 12%-across-the-board takeout from every pool was rendered a complete disaster!! And in fact pool sizes went DOWN there WITH the 12% takeout, contrary to everything the pinheads at the 4-letter word assured.

Now stop crowing about TAKEOUT, which has been a CONSTANT forever, and start directing your attention to the common sense that will in time repair the racing industry.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 16:25:29 GMT

Not playing, not picking, but I thought I'd let everyone know they shouldn't expect nice weather in New York this weekend.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Joe Pettit — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 04:34:16 GMT

Thanks Pete, tell the state of PA to just make it 50% and we can turn this into a state Lotto game.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

-Keelerman — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 20:57:04 GMT

Thanks, Pete! That sounds exceptional! I can hardly wait until Saturday!

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

THE KEYMASTER — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 20:30:32 GMT

NOW I'm ready for victory!!!

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

THE KEYMASTER — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 20:26:10 GMT

Heck yeah! I can't wait to win those bragging rights...

I plan to crown myself "THE KEYMASTER" of the "Unlocking Winners" blog.

Heck, I'm going to go ahead and change my screen name now to "The Keymaster" in advance of my victory!

Anyone know where I can find The Gatekeeper?

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Pete Denk — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 18:03:06 GMT

Keelerman-

Sounds like a fun idea.

I will post my picks for the 10 G1 races on Saturday at Bel and SA, and blog commentators are urged to do the same.

The assumed bet will be $2 win/place. Winner gets bragging rights and online cred.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

LAZMANICK — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 05:44:41 GMT

Guys quit picking on the Vet. At least he lays it on the line every week. I can't wait for his weekend picks.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

Mary Zinke — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 04:10:30 GMT

What? I think he's sweet.

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

JayJay — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 04:01:58 GMT

KiT and Keelerman : Thanks for the info on Palace Malice. That's really unfortunate, I was really looking forward to seeing his next race. Hopefully we will get to see him race next year.

I'm not a fan of TCI nor DNB in the early part of the year, I don't think I bet either of them once but seeing as how they're ones of the very very very few that's still standing, I'm excited to see them run again. I really hope this year's juveniles lasts longer...if they have to space out their races to every 1 1/2 to 2 months, I'll take it as long as they keep racing. Looking forward to Know More's next race!

TEN G1 races this weekend ??? Holy Guacamole!! I need to buy a bigger dart board...

re: 30% takeout and the PA Derby

woodshade — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 03:39:14 GMT

KY Vet,

I agree with Kevin, You really stink at handicapping. And your taking up alot of unwanted space on the Blog. Keep your picks to yourself.