Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

JayJay — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 04:23:04 GMT

WoW Footlick, congrats on the exacta on Solemia. That was a weird run by Orfevre but I have to agree that he was the best horse in the race. I still can't believe he took the lead by that much and still got beat. That's a very long stretch. About maybe 200 yards from the wire, I keep thinking, this must be the wrong race because the Orferve was too far ahead lol.

I'm adding Longchamp to my bucket list, that track looks really nice. I have to go there before I kick the bucket.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 17:17:56 GMT

Wow. Molly Malone won the Cadran. 4 yr old fillies won the two top distance races over colts.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 16:57:24 GMT

Orfevre certainly proved to me that at 12f he is brilliant. He didn't move as early as Allez France did when she won the Arc, and Solemia is not Comtesse de Loir, but it was a very brave run from him. It would have been quite a race if Frankel, Orfevre and Cirrus des Aigles all square off. But he may be at a slight disadvantage at 10f. I had a decent day with winning the Boussac, Abbaye and Opera also. The Opera was really no surprise, but the pther two were horses I thought might do well at longer odds. Back to the Arc, Peslier gets some knocks sometimes, but is one of the top jocks in the world. But, give it up to Solemia also as she was not going to be denied. She just kept coming. The wide trip maybe took it's toll on Orfevre, but it wasn't like he was stopping either. They separated themselves from the rest of the field. Masterstroke probably ran the race of his life, as many Fabre 3 yr olds do in the Arc. Could you imagine how much more success Godolphin would have if they just kept their horses with Fabre? I'm sure he gets a great retainer from them, though, to develop horses to transfer to lesser trainers.

On another note, even though I think Moonlight Cloud will be my pick for the BC Mile, Wise Dan is a huge threat to the Europeans. This horse is a quality animal and maybe our best miler since Lure. He is an exciting horse.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

THE KEYMASTER — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 16:24:14 GMT

Congratulations on a very nice exacta Footlick. I did not cash anything, as I only played Orfevre to win and both ways with Great Heavens. I didn't play much though, because of the unenticing odds, the heavy ground, the post draw.

Orferve was one of the favorites, so I cannot take much credit for focusing on him, especially since he was beat, but I still believe Orfevre is the best 12f horse on the planet.

It would be such a great race to see Frankel and Orfevre square off at 10f, but sadly racing will miss another matchup between superstars that the game so desperately needs.

Laffon-Parias should take the accolades for the victory, as he is the trainer of record for Solemia. The Fabre runner Masterstroke ran a decent race for 3rd.

Also, Peslier gave Solemia an ideal trip saving all the ground and stalking the pacesetters.

Well onto Keeneland and the other afternoon races in the US.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 15:24:12 GMT

THE KEYMASTER- it was a brilliant run by Orfevre. Soumillon would not have moved when he did if he didn;t think he had the horse. I only had Solemia becaue I always put a small win bet on fillies on the Arc, but not due to my handicapping skills so I can;t claim the win. Same with my exacta box i=with the fillies and Orfevre and otheres. My hats off to Orfevre. A brilliant run. And to Fabre who once again gets a lesser 3 yr old of his to run well in the Arc. Good pick THE KEYMASTER!

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

THE KEYMASTER — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 14:52:45 GMT

Soumillion made the lead too early with Orfevre, which allowed Solemia come back on him. It was still an impressive effort by Orfevre, given the amount of ground he gave up and the testing conditions of the course.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

JayJay — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 04:05:44 GMT

Footlick : I'm also checking out Sea Moon after reading the article here on Bloodhorse. They mentioned Sea Moon should like the soft turf. I didn't get to watch the races this morning so I don't know what the course looks like. Hopefully I'll get up really early tomorrow to be able to make my bets lol.

Good luck !

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Sat, 06 Oct 2012 23:48:15 GMT

Seeing the condition of the course at Longchamp, I would key Great Heavens, Saonois, Bayir and Sea Moon. At the moment I think the ground will not be suitable for Shareta. Orfevre would be included in some as well as SNA. I'll firm up tomorrow before the race but not sure I'll get to post my actual bets before. The first four are certain choices for me with win bets on both Great Heavens and Saonois. But, Bayir was put i specifically in case of testing conditions and the trainer said he feels the horse can come on alot from his last run. On the fence about Fabre's horses. They really have to find much better form, but he has done it with 3 yr olds before. Should be a great race, or a disaster-lol.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 19:48:53 GMT

He did have a weird couple of races, THE KEYMASTER, but otherwise has been pretty consistent. I'm going to study some more tonight and narrow things down. You're welcome about Great Heavens but you would have found her anyway, I'm sure. I do feel she is a legit threat.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

JayJay — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 19:38:49 GMT

Footlick / KEYMASTER : Yeah, I've always gone with my instinct ever since I stopped using the form but I do look at others opinion and their angle specially at tracks I'm not familiar with. I'm set on Saonois, it's my first Arc bet, hopefully it'll be a good one. I wish you both good luck and looking forward to your posts on Sunday.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

THE KEYMASTER — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 18:29:41 GMT

Oh, not to keep going on about Orfevre, but I feel that he is the type of horse that is either going to win by a length or more, or he is going to finish midpack.

I'm certainly only going to wager more than I can afford to lose on Orferve and still have plenty of ammo left for the afternoon's races, because it is possible that he does not show up.

However, Orfevre has shown flashes of brilliance and if he can put it all together in the Arc, we may be in for a spectacular performance.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

THE KEYMASTER — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 18:18:26 GMT

Footlick-

Agreed that Zarkava's win was the stronger of the two, but I used Sea The Stars as an example because he was as upset as any horse I've ever seen in a race and he still won anyway.

However, not only did Zarkava win it in dazzling fashion, she also gets extra credit for being a 3-year-old filly and winning the Arc.

It will be exciting to see how the offspring of the two will turn out, but as with most high profile breedings, I am cautiously optimistic at best.

I appreciate you pointing out Great Heavens. Everything I read about her is positive, but I still need to find some time to watch some replays of her races.

JayJay-

Always go with your instincts. While there are some valid opinions here, always play what you think. For the few times you will cash on someone's opinion, you will do much better in the long run going with you instincts. If your insticts don't tell you something, it is best not to wager at all.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 17:24:15 GMT

THE KEYMASTER- Sea the Stars Arc win to me was his most impressive, as he had a rough trip and was in traffic, which caused his being rank, IMO. But it is rare, and The horse has to be proficient at 12f. But, to each his own. Zarkava's Arc was the stronger of the two, and she had a rough trip also. Anyway, I digress from what I wanted to comment about- lol. I am not overly concerned with Orfevre's post. He is one of the top choices and the post really doesn't change that. I do like Great Heavens also.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 17:03:01 GMT

JayJay- I know his last was at 12f but it is not the same as the Arc which is usually a more arduous, testing race. I do agree that his running style suggests he will not have a problem, but I have noted a few analysts who had reservations, which were their only reservations actually. Many like his chances. And do not change your mind because of my picks, please. Go with your instincts.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

THE KEYMASTER — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 15:53:08 GMT

I will have to disagree with prior comments that a rank horse CANNOT win going 12f.

I went back and watched Sea the Stars in the 2009 Arc and I had the same thoughts watching the replay as when I watched it the first time... If Sea the Stars would have been given his head early in the race, he probably would have lowered it between his knees and let out a buck!

Sea the Stars was fighting Kinane so much that he was throwing around his head, which got him shuffled back and pinned. However, as soon as Sea the Stars was asked the question, he responded with brilliance.

Also, Orfevre was rank early in the 12f Prix Foy, but went on to win after being wrangled back to last behind a slow pace.

Of course you would rather have a relaxed horse going 12f, but I certainly don't mind my jockey sitting tall with high hands. I think the best horses are those that can package their energy and explode when asked the question.

The 18 post certainly isn't ideal for Orfevre, but I think he may be the Japanese version of Sea the Stars and it won't matter. Also, this is a weak field for Arc standards.

I will jump on the Great Heavens bandwagon as the longshot to include, but I will only be using underneath Orfevre.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

JayJay — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 03:06:30 GMT

Footlick : His last race was at 12F (Prix Niel), I thought the Jockey Club was too but it's not, it was at 1 5/16. The way he runs in the stretch makes me feel confident he can go farther actually. Looking forward to your picks, don't be surprised if I change mine after seeing yours lol.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 00:55:36 GMT

Just glancing at the entries, there seem to be quite a few pacemakers, so I wouldn't worry about that. When I mentioned the trip, Jay Jay, I wasn't necessarily talking about that type of trip, but the distance of the race. In top company, there seems to be a question of whether he can legitimately get the 12f. An inside trip, or a bobbing and weaving trip, isn't ideal in the Arc. I do think he has a shot, but he will need luck. He is not a bad bet, Jay Jay. I will probably use the 3 yr olds with Orfevre, SNA and Sea Moon. But I'll firm up and post again before Sunday.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

JayJay — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 23:51:56 GMT

Footlick : I have no idea who his jockey is but from what I've seen in the Niel and Jockey Club, they can weave and zigzag through the field. I have a feeling he'll be again midpack and his jockey will find a way to burst through for the win :) Also, now that you've explained a little bit of detail on the weights, I'm even more excited with the weight break he's getting. The only really concern I have with him is how the course will be.

Who do you think will set the pace ?

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 23:09:15 GMT

JayJay- yes they did. My only worry with him is the trip. But he is getting attention, but not enough that you will see his odds plummet. He should be a decent price. As THE KEYMASTER. Predicted, Camelot is now the favorite, especially with Frankie in the saddle. But, there will be a lot of Japanese money coming in for Orfevre, so he still may be favored. Sea Moon is getting support as is Great Heavens. Shaping up to be a good race even without the big names.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

JayJay — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 20:07:46 GMT

Footlick : You're right, looks like they supplemented Saonois. Now I just hope to get a good price on him and even more important, I hope I wake up early enough to place my bets lol.

I'm going with :

Camelot / Saonois with

Orfevre / Shareta / Great Heavens / Masterstroke

and

Saonois with Camelot, Orfevre, Masterstroke, Shareta with Camelot, Orfevre, Masterstroke, Shareta

Good luck all !! There's a new blog but will come back here after this weekend to see everyone's thoughts of the Arc. Looking forward to it.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 19:11:08 GMT

jean thomas

There ya go. Sir Henry wasn't knighted for nothing. He's one of the greatest of all time and so is Frankel. To state anything else is just ridiculous. Great posts.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

Footlick — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 14:22:39 GMT

Jersey Boy- That is very interesting that the numbers are so different. Thanks for the link.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

JerseyBoy — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 13:46:30 GMT

Footlick:

Check link below. I believe one list is adjusted for age. Both are correct. I did a cut and paste job.

www.racingpost.com/.../card.sd

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

THE KEYMASTER — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 13:23:24 GMT

Cecil wasn't there when Frankel won the Sussex at Goodwood. Can they not send Frankel over with the head lad? I would say it is a safe assumption that there is someone in the yard that has spent more time with Frankel and had their hands on horse more than Cecil, especially since Cecil has been ill. Seems unfair to the horse to let one man's illness dictate where the horse runs.

re: Ten Grade 1s on tap Saturday

jean thomas — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 06:30:46 GMT

arc is now lackluster race anyway without snow fairy, nathaniel, danedream i hope great heavens runs in it i'll root for her