Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 21:01:13 GMT

Hedonemewrongsong not good enough to overcome wide trip on the class rise....bombs away as #4 Moonwalk (36-1)may have just set up a double carryover in the p5. Will see...

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 20:28:35 GMT

Hedonemewrongsong is currently 7-1 in the Jessamine S. Betting WIN/PLACE.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 19:57:46 GMT

I'm gonna do HAW...

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 18:09:02 GMT

QEII or Hawthorne Derby for race of the week?

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

JayJay — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 04:38:31 GMT

Pete : Thanks for that link on UR's herd dynamic analysis. The reason I asked about UR was because I noticed during the TC chase that UR seemed to be the type that didn't like to be crowded and when he does, he shuts down or stops running. The current discussion made me curious as to what your analysis was on him. This is a very interesting discussion and I'm learning a lot. Thanks again!

KY VET : You see how KEYMASTER responded to Pete with his disagreement? It wasn't that hard to post a mature comment, you don't need to be doing any name calling just to prove your point.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 21:47:17 GMT

Thanks KY VET.

Keenland is certainly enigmatic. I didn't have a very good start to the meet last week. Things will turn around.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

KY VET — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 20:24:11 GMT

By the way.......Keymaster acually knows alot about this game........1 of not many on here..........

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

KY VET — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 20:22:57 GMT

HEY! What the heck? 2 straight eased! 0-2 big bets down the drain....keenland is so strange.....

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 19:30:16 GMT

Yeah, I'm not very good at making clear and concise points...

Typically blogging while at work, so switching back and forth between thoughts. I am not a very good multi-tasker :)

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Mary Zinke — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 19:11:53 GMT

Thanks for the speculation. I get your point now.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:48:18 GMT

Yes, horses can improve or go backwards from a herd dynamic standpoint. But Union Rags never lost his herd dynamic. He ran to his profile every race of his life.

He failed to get PHYSICALLY faster at age three.

The Belmont was a much slower race than the Derby and Preakness, and that gave him a chance. I thought he acquitted himself quite well coming up the rail and reeling in Paynter for the win.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:40:03 GMT

Mary Z. -

Sorry I didn't take the time to fully explain in previous point, as you completely missed the point...

It was not nature that caused Paynter's downfall, it was likely the TRAINER and more specifically, the AMOUNT OF DRUGS given to these horses.

When horses are pumped full of antibiotics and other drugs, this weakens their natural immune systems, making them more suspectible to colitis and other life threatening diseases that they can no longer fight off. Had the horse's immune system not already been deteriorated by being pumped full of antibiotics, then maybe his system would now be responding to the antibiotics being given to him. Rather, the veterinarians have been switching around antibiotics to try to find one that will now work.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

KY VET — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:07:18 GMT

SO they LOSE the HERD DYNAMIC? HMMMMM?

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

KY VET — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:03:50 GMT

KEENLAND PRIME BETS FOR WED.

ALL BETS 160w 140p

RACE 5- #11 PHYCHADELLIC

RACE 6- #5 MISS RUUD

RACE 8- #13 OFF LIMITS

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 17:57:26 GMT

Agree that Bodemeister was simply faster than Union Rags, who did not develop any further at age three.

But we were very well rewarded for our position on I'll Have Another.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Mary Zinke — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 17:55:42 GMT

Paynter was trained into having an infected lesion?? I can't buy that. And, KY, no idea, unless that is something about linear algebra. I can't decipher your comment, and it's what I do, so congrats on stumping the sleuth.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

KY VET — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 17:21:31 GMT

HOW WAS ZENYATTAS HERD DYNAMIC?

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

KY VET — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 17:20:37 GMT

UNION RAGS wasnt even in the same league as BODEMEISTER! And i wasnt even bodes big fan. IF best herd dynamic means "hanger" then i guess RAGS is that....How fast did RAGS EVER RUN? NEVER EVEN A 100 beyer! ALW horses run that....BODE could beat most every 3 yr old from behind if they wanted to.....the horse i own, has 15 wins....so if he ran against stks horses, he would have a bad herd dynamic? ITS BAD SCIENCE!

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

KY VET — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 17:06:24 GMT

EE 1st vee one rotate

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 16:16:59 GMT

Thanks Pete, that clarifies things a bit. The entire nature/nurture debate is certainly intriguing.

I am glad that Kerry is putting more thought into pointing out that horses have different emotional confirmations. So many horses are thrown into a trainer's "system" and are not developed individually and appropriately.

I would say it is a very safe assumption that Zenyatta would not have been Zenyatta had she been trained by someone less patient than Sheriffs.

So many of these trainers that are given huge numbers of horses are like spoiled rich kids with toys... if they break them, they will just buy another.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 15:45:21 GMT

One of Kerry Thomas' favorite sayings is that "horses learn in motion."

In other words, what happens to them in races and in training can really stick with them, affecting a horse's psychology and emerging traits.

When we profiled Bodemeister in spring of his 3yo season, Kerry saw a horse that wanted to run away from herd chaos. He wanted to be in front.

Whether that was instilled in him by his jockeys and trainer, I can't say for sure. Perhaps he could have been a different horse if say, Carl Nafzger trained him.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 15:16:30 GMT

Pete

I will have to respectfully disagree about the reason Bodemeister did not rate. I believe it was the training of Bob Baffert and the ride by Mike Smith.

While I do believe that horses all have their own personalities and idosynncrasies, I also very strongly believe that they are also products of their environment. This all goes to the nature/nuture debate. I feel they are both important. However, if someone wants to screw a horse up a horse, it is not very hard to do so. Horses have a very good memory when it comes to traumatic events.

Neither Bodemeister or Paynter were rank, need the lead, type of horses. They both showed this early in their career before Baffert ruined them. Bode didn't look rank while sitting 3rd and 2nd in his debut, nor the San Felipe where he sat 2nd. Paynter came from last to win his debut. Both horses rated very high on talent, but were both very low on experience. Baffert knew this, so he figured he didn'ta want to get them caught in traffic, so he trained them to go to the front and hope that their god given talents were enough to carry them through the triple crown. I see very few Baffert horses that are not on or near the lead in their races.

Where is Bode and Paynter now anyway? Bode is a cripple and Paynter is still in the hospital fighting for his life. I do not think nature was responsible for this and that it is any coincidence that these horses were both trained by Baffert.

I do believe in emotional confirmation and nature; however, I think it is more important to think about the environment they have been in and what they have been trained or asked to do.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 14:55:55 GMT

KY VET-

There is no magic bullet, but herd dynamics are a piece of the puzzle. These are animals after all, not racecars. (That point shouldn't be lost on someone who works with horses as much as a vet)

Or do u mean vet as in veteran?

Anyway, feel free to disbelieve. The more people who do, the higher our odds.

BTW, we crushed the KY Derby with Animal Kingdom too.

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

Pete Denk — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 14:31:53 GMT

JayJay-

Union Rags was the #1 rated colt in last year's 2yo class on herd dynamics.

We updated the rankings right before this year's KY Derby and ranked Union Rags #1 and I'll Have Another #2. So our top two swept the Triple Crown, at very nice odds.

Here is a link to the IHA profile. There are links to all the Derby horses. Bodemeister's is a fascinating read for anyone who wants to dive into the psychology of a racehorse. His emotional conformation was the main reason he could not rate and was susceptible to a rabbit like Trinniberg or a monster group dynamic like IHA. Note this all was published 4/29/12, before the Derby of course.

kentuckyconfidential.com/.../profile-ill-have-another

re: Price hunting at Keeneland: the Breeders' Futurity

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 13:34:42 GMT

As long as the current medication rules are what they are, and KY Vet actually has a valid license to practice, then Ky Vet will be just fine losing $$$ on the ponies. KY Vet can pass the losses onto owners by giving horses unnecessary medication and the owners exuberant vet bills.