Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

JayJay — Wed, 14 Nov 2012 03:42:50 GMT

Ranagulzion : Excellent point! I totally forgot about the new points system. I think it'll work itself out though, it's still a work in progress in my opinion. I remember checking the field that actually ran in the Derby this year against the horses that would have qualified based on the new points system and it didn't really changed much. Hopefully things will work itself out and that the best horses do make it and we'll end up with a legitimate derby field next year.

KiT : I remember him well because I lost a lot of money on him on his biggest prep race where I believe he injured himself. Thanks for the update!

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Karen in Texas — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 23:48:40 GMT

Of course this has nothing to do with the current promising 2y/o's, but I see that one colt several of us were watching last spring, Spring Hill Farm, is back on the work schedule at Palm Meadows. I did not know if he was going to be brought back after his injury.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Ranagulzion — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 19:35:37 GMT

jay jay,

The radar isn't picking up much this year that'll help to forcast next season's classics and the newly introduced points system to qualify for a place in the Kentucky Derby is going to throw a lot of handicappers off. Somehow I think that next season is likely to deliver some major upsets in the Triple Crown races especially the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 19:10:25 GMT

PlodBoyPhil,

Boy, that struck me, too. He was 20-1 ML and won at 6-1, I think.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

JayJay — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 05:12:04 GMT

I'll go ahead and start it off, maybe it'll get me off this funk lol. I'm still waiting to hear about Palace Malice, hopefully he'll be back next year. Haven't given up on Know More, pretty sure they went with the turf because of how he performed on synthetic at DelMar but I hope that they put him back on dirt and give him a chance to get used to it. I'll be watching him closely next year.

I wasn't a fan of Shanghai Bobby as I thought he's an 8F horse at best. I was pretty impressed with his run winning the BC juvenile though, having run with first time off lasix and hanging on to win, on the other hand, he barely beat a horse that hasn't really done much this year. HHE might be just getting better and learning how to run so I'll keep an eye on him too. I remember a horse that didn't do too much as a 2 yr. old last year that's owned by the same connections as HHE but won 4 races this year.

I'm sure there'll be loads of new players starting next year, looking forward to seeing who starts making noise early but finding those that stays under the radar is the fun part.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Pete Denk — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 20:38:39 GMT

I am looking forward to seeing Scarlet Strike run today in the Sharp Cat. She is a promising filly I have blogged about a couple times.

Back next week with a new blog. Been busy at the NOV sale plus the Herd Whisperer is in town.

Maybe we can talk about promising two-year-olds next week. Will see what the stakes schedule has...

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

JayJay — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 20:37:59 GMT

Hit the exacta in the first race at HP, going to use that for the P6. I had the 1,7 with 1,7,3 with 1,7,3 trifecta and the 4 just killed it !! I'm happy with the exacta though. Good luck to all playing the P6 today, should be a nice pool.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 20:08:45 GMT

Pedigree Ann

That's for sure, and it can be quite detrimental to latch onto or fall in love with horses early. I try to keep an open mind and try to be flexible but I just found that I really enjoy looking at the pedigrees, and following them and tinkering with the Derby Dozen. Last year I got lucky and had I'll Have Another number two on my September list but that was pure luck. I just happened to like his pedigree. The futures bet is pretty much a scam. I only played it once and lost. I'll save my money for the preps and Triple Crown races. I love the preps starting in January.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 14:01:46 GMT

Dr. D - as in many years, we may not even have heard of most the horses who will be the major Derby contenders. Last year was not typical of the recent trend. Colts who are working on their maiden wins and first condition at SA & Aqu & CD, or are running in minor stakes races at Philly & CRC at the moment will blossom during the winter and surprise us all.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 02:48:18 GMT

Jayjay

Just get Derby fever and you'll be just fine. Uncaptured is number two but could be number one, and Shanghai Bobby is number three. I wanted to wait longer this year but it's just too much fun. Derby Fever already. At least I waited longer than last year. Last year in Sep I had a top ten. Today I just have a top three. Progress but it's all over now, I'm feverish, and drinking plenty of fluids.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

JayJay — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 01:12:56 GMT

Dr D : Maybe but I just don't think Fort Larned is that good. It's one of those debates that will never be resolved unfortunately. I'm not mad that Fort Larned won, I'm mad cause I didn't have him lol. Before Friday, I already tossed him out as the "rabbit" of the field that would go head to head with GoD but forgot about him on Saturday when the track ended up playing speed. I just had GoD and MMM.

HHE surprised me, I bet him in his previous race and didn't see anything special but maybe he likes SA but he ran very very well and I actually thought he was going to get up.

I'm with Predict, I'm kind of going through some kind of Post BC withdrawal... it's like nothing more to look forward to until the first big TC prep race... and that's too far away.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 00:36:29 GMT

Jayjay

No chance of Fort Larned being toast or folding on that day. He would have dueled for another 200 yards at least and still won. If Game On did get the lead Fort Larned would have sat behind him and toasted Game On in the stretch. I think that maybe Game On missed Chantal but in any case Fort Larned was a monster on Sat. and would have been tough to beat in any scenario. He's Had Enough is number one at the moment on my Derby list.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

JayJay — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 07:56:44 GMT

Pete : Any chance you can do a blog on how 2 yr olds carry their form to 3 ? What's your take on the topic ? We've seen many that never transformed their 2 yr old form to 3, and ones that picks up where they left off and then there are the late bloomers.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

JayJay — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 07:35:19 GMT

Dr D : I don't know if GoD would've won but my point was more of how he ran. He never had a chance, he doesn't know how to run behind horses, he's never had to. I thought it would've been a loss that's easier to take if he was allowed to run his race. It also affected the outcome in my opinion, if he went to the lead, Fort Larned would've been toasted at the top of the stretch and MMM probably would've won IMHO.

I'm still following Know More for the Triple Crown, I'm guessing his connections thought he did well on synthetic and tried to transfer that form to turf. I still think that he would've done better in the Juvenile. As I do every year, I'm going to wait and see who of the 2 year olds get to keep their form when they turn 3. Hopefully Palace Malice comes back soon, not that many juvies were impressive this year so let's see what happens next year.

tcc : Agreed with the others, would be nice to see the stats of the percentage of horses who bled vs. who didn't. Thanks for posting the info.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Footlick — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 03:33:19 GMT

-Keelerman, I never knew that. That is extremely interesting.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

-Keelerman — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 02:44:16 GMT

Thanks for the congratulations, Rusty. I'll be looking forward to your thoughts on the Triple Crown!

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

-Keelerman — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 02:34:34 GMT

Tcc;

I find that very interesting . . . watching the Juvenile, I was struck by the fact that Capo Bastone fizzled in the homestretch after making what appeared to be a winning move on the final turn. Perhaps this is the explanation. Thanks!

Footlick;

It's interesting that you should mention Northern Dancer. As odd as this may seem, he did race on Lasix -- the famous veterinarian Alex Harthill used it on the colt for the Kentucky Derby, back before the medication was recognized or legal.

-Keelerman

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 01:29:41 GMT

Plod Boy Phil

I was going to bet Gabriel Charles myself but forgot to. He had Talamo who has been excellent down the hill, a good turf pedigree, a good prime power number, Mullins 21% first on grass, and he had an excellent A minus workout report on the turf, which I think swayed some bettors. He's a lightly raced 160k horse too, and I think they wanted a winning spot. He wasn't facing any monsters. Obviously it was a good spot, he took to the turf, and he was peaked for a top performance. I suspect the owners and their friends bet also.

Jayjay

Game On Dude wasn't going to beat the top two Saturday anyway even with the lead. Game On has won from off the pace before anyway. The Big Cap 2011 is a good example where he and Chantal pin ball wizarded themselves to the lead from off the pace.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 00:38:51 GMT

Despite popular opinion, the Plod Boys at Racing Flow did not register a Speed Bias of any consequence at Santa Anita on Saturday. We'll rate Shanghai Bobby's performance as the best of the day on the dirt considering his fast and pressured 6f and his determination and stamina to win despite a Flow that was very favorable to Closers. While we were aboard Capo Bastone and Fortify going in, neither interests us coming out until proven otherwise - blled or no bleed.

The Friday card was modestly favorable to Speed, but not enough to recommend blindly playing back all failed or successful closers, with the exception of those types in the Juv Sprint (Hightail and SSM).

The Turf Mile played out moderately favorable to Speed, thus bringing Wise Dan's performance a bit back to earth in our opinion. We were impressed enough by Animal Kingdom's lone turf race last February to make him the selection on Saturday. The performance, considering the unfavorably Flow for closers and the tight quarters he was in through much of the stretch, has done nothing to change that view.

Finally, our best bet over the two days at SA was Gabriel Charles based purely on his PPs and Racing Flow figures. Is anyone aware of the information that was out, beside ours, that inspired such heavy action?

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Footlick — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 23:17:57 GMT

tcc-thanks. I read the article after you mentioned it. I can only say that no raceday medication works everywhere else in the world. I also feel if a horse cannot perform on raceday without medication, it should not be allowed to go to the breeding shed, male or female. I know that is severe, but the horses who overcome are the ones we want in the shed. That being said, didn't John Nerud blame Northern Dancer for passing on the bleeding trait? And he didn't run on meds. He overcame, and seemingly passed it on still. I'm not sure if racing in this country can survive without Lasix anymore, but it is used way too much, imo.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

tcc — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 22:19:46 GMT

Foorlick;

Here is some more parts of the article.

Casse said that Dynamic Sky, who ran sixth in the Juvenile, did not bleed.

Todd Pletcher, who won the Juvenile with Shanghai Bobby, had all of his horses scoped and said none of his 2-year-olds bled.

“It doesn’t change my position on being pro-Lasix,” Pletcher said.

Bob Baffert said none of the 2-year-olds he ran in the Breeders’ Cup bled, but he remains against a ban of the medication. He believes by banning Lasix in all Breeders’ Cup races next year, “you’ll see field sizes shrink.” There are a lot of owners that are going to get out of the business,” Baffert said. “I have some clients that think it’s inhumane to allow a horse to bleed.”

Fortify, who ran fourth in the Juvenile, did not bleed, according to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Fortify was the only horse in the Juvenile field to have never raced on Lasix.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Footlick — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 21:47:29 GMT

tcc- do you have any stats on how many other 2 yr olds bled and how many did not? In championships like this, you will always have horses who bleed because it is stress-induced. But, if most of the horses did not bleed significantly, it will tell you how overused the drug actually is.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

tcc — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 19:08:09 GMT

Kellerman,Footlick;

A little part of an article in DRF about some 2 year olds in the Breeder's Cup.

Trainer John Sadler said both Capo Bastone and Monument, third and last, respectively, in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, bled. Trainer Mark Casse said that Spring in the Air, who finished fifth in Friday’s Juvenile Fillies, also bled.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

predict — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 23:30:26 GMT

I think I'm suffering from PBCD today after the Breeder's Cup. I get all worked up trying to solve all the races, and when it's over I feel Post Breeder's Cup Depression. Anyway it was great fun while it lasted, I seemed to pick horses that ran second all day. That wasn't really all that bad, can't wait till next year for some more fun. Thanks to Pete and all the bloggers here, you make it that much more enjoyable.

re: Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 22:40:57 GMT

Pete Denk,

Thanks, but no. Included Fort Larned & Mucho Macho Man after your helpful call about the track conditions, but didn't get a single all day. George Vancouver's win gave me confidence enough to stick with Shareta and Excelebration in the late Pick 4's. I'm glad next year will be at Santa Anita.

Bad day, bad year.

Congratulations, winners (JayJay, Keelerman, Ranagulzion?).

Talk to you all again in the runup to the Derby.