New Sire Analysis: Curlin

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Lynx — Sun, 28 Jul 2013 09:19:45 GMT

How good it feels when you are right!!!! I have NEVER been wrong in predicting the outcome of a stallion's future. Palace Malice proves Curlin as a 2nd-to-none top-class stallion. Wait for his progeny in 3-4 years when more classy mares will be bred to him. The best is yet to come... An advice to breeders: if all these breeding/nicking experts were more correct than you, they would breed for themselves. Breed only based on your opinion. Your experience and 'eye' for the good horse beats any software or 'experts' paid opinion.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Sat, 24 Nov 2012 15:06:53 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“you were never impressed with Derby winner Super Saver”

You are not entirely correct. I was impressed with Super Saver's win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His final time of 1:42.83 was the fastest of those recorded in the preceding 20 years. His Derby victory could be considered as by default was. Ice Box the runner up has got to be considered the most unfortunate finisher in that position.

“It’s not that I'm rooting for Pletcher, two of the colts that I like just happened to be his trainees”

My friend it will not harm your reputation if you are candid and own up to the fact that you worship at the altar of Pletcher. Your initial 2012 Derby top 10, were loaded with Pletcher’s charges. This was consistent with your annual trend. Neither the Delta Jackpot winner nor the impressive and expensive Giants Causeway debut winner trained by Speedy Bob made your top three. They are certainly better than Darwin and Overanalyzed.

Shakin It Up: I must correct part of the information provided in previous post. He is owned by a partnership including Mr. Pegram. It appears he sold a percentage. Another example of my providing misinformation to the vulnerable less informed. Kindly accept my apology.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

JayJay — Sat, 24 Nov 2012 08:50:10 GMT

Betting at the casino sportsbook sucks, no machines to make my own bets. CD is my card tomorrow, all 2 yr old races and to me that means a lot of potential value plays. It's the best races to try and beat the favorites.

CHURCHILL DOWNS :

$.50 P4 ( $12.00 )

01 : 2, 4

02 : 1. 4, 6

03 : 1

04 : 1, 6, 11, 5

$.50 P4 ( $18.00 )

09 : 4, 9

10 : 5, 11, 9

11 : 4, 10

12 : 6, 11, 8

HOLLYWOOD PARK :

$.50 P5 ( $10.00 )

01 : 2

02 : 4

03 : 4, 6

04 : 7, 3

05 : 9, 2, 6, 8, 4

$.50 P4 ( $10.00 )

02 : 4

03 : 4, 6

04 : 7, 3

05 : 9, 2, 6, 8, 4

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Ranagulzion — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 18:52:46 GMT

Coldfacts,

If I remember correctly, you were never impressed with Derby winner Super Saver (Todd Pletcher) at any point. Its not that I'm rooting for Pletcher, two of the colts that I like just happened to be his trainees. I believe that Mike Pegram will regret that he let Shakin it Up get away.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 18:42:53 GMT

To quote Mr. Coldfacts: "[Affirmed] was a flop a stallion."

Affirmed did not sire a son who became a leading sire (except in Canada), but his sire record is far from being that of a flop.

Top runners by Affirmed:

Flawlessly, 2-times Eclipse winner

Bint Pasha, Prix Vermeille, etc.

Trusted Partner, Irish 1000 Guineas

Zoman, Washington, DC, International, etc.

Charley Barley, Summer S, etc.

Peteski, champion and sire, Queen's Plate,etc.

Affluent, QEII at Kee, etc.

Affirmed Success, Vosburgh H, etc.

The Tin Man, American H, etc.

Buy the Firm, Top Flight H, etc.

Other group/graded winners include - Easy to Copy, One from Heaven, Tibullo, Claude Monet, Regal State, Persevered, Medi Flash, Isle of Glass, Abigailthewife, All Firmed Up, Firm Dancer, Viva Zapata, Barbed Wire, Mossflower.

His son Argosy, listed winner in Ireland, became a sire of group winners in South Africa.

You may notice a tendency for turf runners among Affirmed's get, which was weird, since he himself always ran on dirt. All over the country. From 2 to 4, 5f to 12f. Champion at 2, 3, and 4. The epitome of the ideal American-style TB of the 20th Century.

Now Personality, Horse of the Year in 1970 in some polls, that was a 'flop sire.' Had all of 1 NA/Euro group/graded winner from 2/3rds of a decade at stud in the US. Got a couple of G3 winners in Japan. Quickly dropped out of sight in US pedigrees, while Affirmed has become a darn good damsire, in particular of the stallions Harlan's Holiday and Bernstein.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 16:41:13 GMT

TCC,

The colt I like in the Remsen is Quinzieme Monarque. He caught a yielding turf in the Pilgrim and his rider at no time got over him. Why would Joel chose to stay on a colt that was beaten 12L? If he can perform favorably on dirt he is the one to beat.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

tcc — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 07:40:05 GMT

Should mention Remsen is on Saturday, 11-24.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

tcc — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 07:29:22 GMT

Ranagulzion,Coldfacts;

You both should be able to see two of the horses whom you mentioned, those being Overanalyze and Micromanage, as they are both entered in the Remsen S. (grade 2) Aqueduct, race #7, 1 1/8 miles. This is a Derby prep race where they can earn points in.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 03:59:03 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I have no quarrel with Karen in Texas. I do not expect every contributor to view me favorably. I thanked her for pointing out my error.

Why am I not surprised that two of the colts comprising your list are trained by the Todd Pletcher. In spite of my best efforts in trying to convince you that Mr. Pletcher and the Derby and sworn enemies, you continue to hope. Those that live in hope invariably die in despair. Of all the files containing historic data that I lost, the one containing Mr. Pletcher’s dismal Derby and Triple Crown record is the one I regret the most. Neither Darwin nor Overanalyzed will distinguish themselves on the Derby trail. Micromanage will turn out to be better than both.

Shakin it Up: This colt’s sire and grandsire were trained by Bob Baffert. If his dam had raced she would also have been trained by Mr. Baffert just like his second dam. They should have named him The Baffert Affair. The fact that he was bred by Mike Pegram a longtime client of Mr. Baffert and not retained for racing does not suggest the connections were impressed with him. Why should you?

If this Bernardini colt performs up to expectations you will change your tune.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

LAZMANICK — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 03:36:10 GMT

Chief I guess when you look at his birthday we're both right. Hope you had a great thnksgiving.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Ranagulzion — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 01:35:02 GMT

Coldfacts,

I believe that you are mistaken about Karen in Texas. She generally comes across as quite dignified, smart and an astute fact checker (she'll keep you honest seven days a week and twice on Sundays, like it or not).

I'll be keeing an eye on the Bernardini colt Dewey Square (remembering how promising another Bernardini progeny, Algorithms looked last year). I have to tell you though that no Bernardini colt is likely to be on my shot list for next year's Derby however. I am convinced that they are more suited to the Midsummer and Fall races.

The 2YOs so far have not impressed much but I am paying attenion to developments. I now have three on my watch list: Darwin, Overanalyzed and Shakin it Up. The latter, a Baffert trainee, is looking very good indeed for next year. Happy Thanksiving to you too Bro. More anon.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 23:45:56 GMT

Laz you are right as far as excepted ages for racehorses, all the two year olds turn three on January 1.Curlin was born March 25 so he got his first win at two technically.BTW I made a mistake while typing and you were the only one that caught it.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Lynx — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 20:46:36 GMT

Sceptre,Coldfacts: I will not argue with neither of you cause of my lack of knowledge on the subject. Trying to be brief i failed to state my point. Well here it is: I have only one mare. If i could i would breed her to Curlins' dad cause of Curlin. If i had 10 mares i would breed 2-3 of them to Curlin as a well calculated risk. And a prediction from an emotional young breeder who never followed the known path and was always right at the end: Bullet Train will be a better stallion than Frankel. See you in 3.5 years.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Karen in Texas — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 18:53:57 GMT

I posted an earlier comment this A.M.--not sure why it isn't here.

Coldfacts---I did not "applaud" Mr. Ervin's (Irwin's?) remarks to you. That was someone else. It can be checked/verified. Sorry, thanks.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

LAZMANICK — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 18:26:09 GMT

Chief

Curlin never raced at two. That better than 10 length win was early in his three year old year and was so impressive that he was then sold for $3.7M.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 16:16:22 GMT

Ranagulzion,

It is well known that you have labeled horses from the A P Indy sire line as being affected by Late Development Syndrome (LDS). After consuming portions of the rather large bird that is featured on the tables of each household on TG day. Try to digest the fact that a Bernardini colt will romp in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and in so doing will remain undefeated in 3 starts.

Dewey Square did not meet his reserve in the Select 2YO sale in which he was entered. His breeders refused $575K suggesting he is considered to be something special. Bernardini’s stud fee is $140K and therefore $435K should have been sufficient to all costs with plenty left for a significant profit.

His connections should have been charged with a crime for his 11 3/4L thrashing of the 1-2 favorite in his debut at Hoosier Park. He was then entered in an Optional Claiming race at CD and won under minimum urging.

This colt covers ground effortlessly just like his sire. I am aware the Uncaptured will be the overwhelming favorite but I suspect Dewey Square will be asked to run on Saturday and I am looking forward to an impressive performance that will launch him as one watch on the Derby trail.

NB: 3-1 or 4-1 will not be available on this colt after Saturday.

Happy TG

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Scott's Rail — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 16:02:18 GMT

I'll tread lightly here...Over the years from my modest observations of horses on the Classic campaign trail I'll take Raise a Native on top, Turn-to on dam sire line, Buckpasser on maternal bottom, and throw in a grass stayer for good measure. Sounds simple enough....Here's to a great TGiving and a bang-up 2013...

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

JayJay — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 15:58:39 GMT

Correction on my post... way too early for me to be betting and blogging I think. The 2nd race at CD is 2M, not 2F lol. I have 32 minutes before the 1st, going to go do this the proper way and drink my coffee first.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

JayJay — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 15:19:15 GMT

Anyone willing to share their singles for the massive Hollywood Park P6 today? I'm playing Churchill Downs early P4 right now and talk about tough. The 2nd race is a 2F race for 3 yr olds and up, then the 3rd is 5.5F for 2 yr olds and there's 16 of them! I'm thinking if I get lucky and got the these first 3 legs, I need to ALL the last leg, it would kill me to lose it again on the damn post time favorite.

Anyway, it's thanksgiving day. Let's all be thankful, first and foremost to Bloodhorse and to Pete for continuing to have this blog where we can ALL express our thougths and opinions whether we agree or disagree with them. For me, it's always a pleasure to read the posts.

Also thankful for my family, and my little girl who's the most precious person in the world to me.

Good luck to all betting the races today!

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 14:41:05 GMT

Curlin was a good two year old he won his FIRST RACE BY more than 10 lengths and was undeafeated heading into the Derby.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

JerseyBoy — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 13:20:00 GMT

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I take it for granted that everyone on this blog has the intellectual capacity to fend for himself or herself. That includes correcting their misstatements.

That is how I always treated my students.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 12:02:11 GMT

Lynx,

I see your post has been subjected to a critique by the self-appointed blog Tzar. I possess a less complicated brain and was able to identify the pertinent points in your post.

“As for Curlin, his achievements, pedigree, but most of all his presence are good enough to make him a very good bet.”

I agree that Curlin is an imposing horse with impressive achievements. He is also from the most dominant sire line in the world and appeared to have been sound throughout is racing career. Curlin like Affirmed hails from the Raise A Native sire line. Why mention Affirmed? He is the most impressive horse from this sire line to date. He was a Triple Crown winner and two times HOY. He was a flop a stallion. How does one explain the fact that the best horse from the most dominant sire line being such a big bust as a stallion? Your guess is as good as mine. I can only conclude that historically horses with those types of resumes do not turn out to be great stallions. Could it be that they spent too much time on the track i.e., over raced? Are they bred to too many top class mares? There will always be more questions than answers. I will remain guided by history and consequently remain convinced that Curlin will not be a great sire.

I have taken a lot of flak for my reliance of historic data. However, in the absence of any other means to measure potential success, I consider the stud success of past champions with similar resumes useful guide.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 09:24:21 GMT

Ranagulzion,

My dear colleague I must again express my gratitude for your defense of me. However, you are wasting your time. Both Sceptre and Karen in Texas detest me and eve of Thanks Giving will not influence a change.

Darwin is in fact a colt by Big Brown. I need to get back in the mix and fact check before I hit the submit button. To err is human to forgive is divine. You display of divinity is to be commended. Others can learn from your example.

Karen in Texas had the option to post a gentle correction but choose to do otherwise. It is not surprising as she was the first to applauded Mr. Ervin for the insults he directed at me. As for Sceptre, his superiority complex is now in a chronic state. He is a bright but tainted individual that only the elites amongst us should engage. Sadly I am a bottom feeder and clearly not qualified to engage learned contributor.

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 08:53:54 GMT

I have taken the liberty of using a capital 'S' at the start of your posting ID. In spite of my academic challenges I am aware that names and titles are proper nouns. I hope this does not offend as it takes very little to do same in your world.

I have repeatedly ascribed intellectual dominion to you. I am therefore puzzled as to the reason for your continued bashing of one held in such low regard. There are programs to correct the bully disorder that affects you. You are advised to register in one of these programs.

I have tried to establish a foundation for meaningful exchanges between us and you have rejected same. You have chosen instead to demean and disrespect. You have gone as far as requesting that my contributions not be displayed as they deemed provide misinformation of the less informed. It is unlikely that information coming from a misfit such as I can influence anyone. It is clear your dislike for me knows no bounds and you take immense pleasure in demeaning me. What exactly am I guilty of? Your superiority complex is clearly on display. It is indeed sad that one so bright is so tainted.

With regards to my BOW, I have certainly received more compliments for same than you have for your intellectual and thought-provoking submissions

Happy TG!

re: New Sire Analysis: Curlin

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 07:34:48 GMT

Karen in Texas,

You are correct. Too much Red Stripe before TG. Thanks.