Taking a shot at the NHC

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Mary Zinke — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 23:30:14 GMT

The one guy's username is likely in reference to 11/6/10. Who holds such deep-seated feelings and thinks of some people as playthings? Rather narrows the field. Most people would just try saying,"hello".

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

JayJay — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 18:38:23 GMT

LOL tcc, I find it hilarious these types that posts such comments and they forget that they actually posted much worse handicapping. KY Vet is a great example.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

tcc — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 06:22:02 GMT

Pete: That was an embarrassing job of handicapping on your part. Are you sure you're in the right profession?

By a long nose 06 Dec 2012 11:15 PM.

Maybe Pete would be asking you this same question after seeing this previous pick. Travers Weekend. Liaison. Easy play in a bad field.

By a long nose 24 Aug 2012 7:46 PM.

The Travers had an 11 horse field, and Liaison finished in 9th place!!!

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

By a long nose — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 04:15:00 GMT

Pete: That was an embarrassing job of handicapping on your part. Are you sure you're in the right profession?

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 05:23:57 GMT

JayJay -

Our best model are in turf routes, then dirt routes.

When I first heard about Pete and Kerry Thomas while listening to Trackfacts LIVE (Albany, NY), a show we have been regular contributors on since 2009, I was intrigued by Pete's comment that they too are best best in turf routes.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 05:16:41 GMT

JayJay -

Since I do not want to make Pete's Blog a billboard for Racing Flow anymore than he's already allowed, I urge you to check us out at www.racingflow.com. My e-mail can be found at the top of the 'Upgrades and Anlysis' page. The articles referenced above may be found on the 'About Racing Flow' page.

Send me an e-mail and I'll be happy to provide you more info and answers, as well as some free data and the weekend Grades.

-Phil

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 04:53:28 GMT

Pete -

If I may, one final comment regarding Bias and I'll lay it to rest and await your next topic.

The concept of using 'projected pace' goes hand in hand with the belief that one can use visual observations to establish accurate Bias data.

The viusal observation approach is undeniably swayed by subjectivity developed during the handicapping process. If a day's results do not go as expected, the handicapper must then attribute it to a Bias (or a series of bad rides...lol). Such a methodogy may be possible for a very, very small minority. That number is even smaller than the number of handicappers actually have a life time positive ROI. The approach would be slightly more sucessful if races were watched without ever looking at PPs or the odds board.

The same can be said of 'projected pace', which uses previous race splits to predict today's pace. With countless variables impacting any race, using such to determine a Bias makes no sense. Many believe in the reasonable notion that merely opening the gate at a different time could change any result.

We use statistically sound methods, none of which rely the notion that the future is predictable.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

JayJay — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 04:40:02 GMT

Plod Boy Phil : I'm intrigued as to how you apply this as a handicapping tool. It seems to me that you'll have to determine what the track condition is ahead of time to determine how to play a horse (based on your analysis of the horse' last race) ? For example, if it rains the night before, track could end up sloppy or muddy or wet fast. Is your model based on fast track ? Also, does this apply to turf races?

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 01:46:36 GMT

Correction to above:

Zip - favors Closers. Based on Tom Durkins race calls....'they zipped the opening quarter'

Plod- favors Speed. Based loosely on Tom Durkins race calls.... 'a pedestrian half mile'

Thanks.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 01:27:04 GMT

P Man -

1) Let me get this straight. The projected pace (aka 'make believe') is more important than the actual pace of a race. Interesing.

2) If you read anything posted above, our Bias figures are driven by the actual pace scenario. 'Flow' (hence the name Racing Flow) is our measurement of the relationship between the actual fractional times of a race and how they work together (for lack of a better term) to produce a scenario that either favors Speed (a Zip), Closers (a Plod), or is Neutral.

Using these Flow figures, we measure the difference between the expected amount of closing (based on our track and distance specific models) and the actual amount of closing (thus the weighted importance of the 1-2-3 finishers) to determine the Bias figure for the day. To simplify, if more closing occured than expected, a Closer Bias existed (the magnitude of which is driven by the size of the delta). If less closing occured than expected, a Speed Bias is recorded (the magnitude....)

2) You can read more on our web site, including DRF feature articles on Racing Flow (us) in 2009 by long time user and supporter Dave Litfin. Additionally, the most recent of three feature articles on Racing Flow in Horseplayer Magazine is available.

- Regards.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

plodderman — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 21:55:39 GMT

Plod Boy...... Your theory is sound, but your reasoning is faulty. JUST BECAUSE the 1-2-3 horses go w-w in every race has ZERO reasoning as to the track being speed favoring. You have to take into account the projected OACE of each race. What if all those horse figured to have a pace that suited them going w-w??? PACE is much more important that the "grain of the track" Incorporate pace into your reasoning and you might just have something to write home about. plodderman@gmail.com to discuss.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 23:34:34 GMT

Hollywood Park Notes for the week of November 29

- Racing Flow recorded an Important Speed Bias on Thursday, 11/29.

- The remainder of the week was as fair a track as there can be. It is our opinion that there is no statistical correlation between a slower than normal track and a closer bias, just as there is no statistical correlation between a faster than normal track and a speed bias.

- Hollywood's 7th race on Sunday, a race in which we upgraded the 10 Money Makin' Sam, had a Race Flow that was only slightly favorable to closers. Considering his 'vs Bias' upgrade comng in (as stated on this Blog beforehand) we'll carry the grade and give 'MMS' another try when next seen.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

plodderman — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 22:10:21 GMT

Peter....Forget odds. Just pick winners. Lookng for odds is crazy. you went 1 for 15 with a 2nd. If you took your 15 best bets, regardless of odds, you should have had 6 winners and 3 more 2nds.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

JayJay — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 01:02:38 GMT

KY VET : For someone who reads the form, your ability to pick winners is nothing to brag about, you're not even close to 10% hit rate. And all you play are the favorites. All you've said about these horses are they are not sound because they drift, lug, whatever. Easy to say "they're hurt, off form", but the truth is, you're just guessing.

A pro doesn't play every track and bet every race, they pick and choose a race and makes money off of it. You bet EVERY race ALL week.

MONEY MAKIN' SAM - LOST

FAST BULLET - Scratched - maybe he's off form

CAJUN MARKET - LOST

Last 3 bets, you're down $1200.... Pro

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

KY VET — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 00:32:16 GMT

TIME FOR BEST BET OF DAY.....9th race...#13 bwanadada has 2 outs....aug29 3rd against way better....but look, 2 months off for a reason...bad bet getting 4th ...brisnet 83 and 84 will win...but dropping to m20000. problems! ill take the 1 best bet CAJUN MARKET...ran77 and 76 brisnet, but is improving.....today he fires!!!!500w300p coming up to race perfect

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

KY VET — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 23:57:35 GMT

correction...smash in the 8th hol....upset race! fast bullet scr.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

KY VET — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 23:53:10 GMT

yes , look for off form both commatothetop and capital acct.....FAST BULLET 200wp

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

KY VET — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 23:50:54 GMT

heres another one for ya.....some unsound horses can run good for a while......COMMA TO THE TOP has problems too......

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

KY VET — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 23:47:54 GMT

jay jay......renee ran way worse than cup day.....pretty obvious....she was 1/2 won by head...slow race. slow brisnet beyer rating...pretty obvious.....and jacito, if you cant tell, is a very dissapointing horse....people liked him for the best in his division....why? he lugs, drifts, bolts.....all bad signs....he is not sound......duh! look at his record.....this good race will just mean he is closer to leaving the racing game sooner.....its really like chatting with someone who doesnt even look at a form.......you just guess.......keep up the critic.....

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

KY VET — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 23:35:23 GMT

sun race 7 hol #10..MONEY MAKIN SAM!!!!! 300w200p 5 to 1!!!!!

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 22:19:46 GMT

GP players -

Our GP upgrades in the P6 sequence today looked like this:

4) 7

5) 3

6) 7

7) 6

8) 3,9

9) none

Take a good look at the 10 Money Makin Sam in the 7th at Hollywood. Upgrade the return race off an extended layoff when pressing the pace against the grain of an important Closer Bias.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Kevin — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 21:13:19 GMT

Horrible day; haven't cashed a single ticket. Watching the replay of the 7th at Gulfstream, still amazed at how the 7 closed. Mid way thru the stretch thought my 6 was home free.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

JayJay — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 19:44:29 GMT

This is awesome, I'm 2 for 2!! Glad it's only dime lol.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

Kevin — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 19:37:43 GMT

And that is why I don't bet Pick 6s. Too much investment and I would have been out in the first race.

re: Taking a shot at the NHC

JayJay — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 19:02:45 GMT

Pedigree Ann : Yeah maybe, more stalkers ran well yesterday. Even Renees, who normally gets the lead had to settle for 2nd and won by class. GoD won on the lead but he wasn't going blazingly fast either, he should've won easily if Bejarano had put away the iPad at the top of the stretch and reminded GoD to keep running, instead he had to work on him when his neighbor Mike came knocking.

GP .10 P6 - might as well take a stab at it :)

7, 5

2, 5

1, 2, 6

7, 8

2, 3, 6, 7