Executiveprivilege returns

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 16:29:01 GMT

Pedigree Ann

Boxing is OK unless you don't win overall. It's just that wheels are more affordable and you can even bet more for a bigger payoff. It's really all about what works for the individual bankroll and psyche and winning technique. Wheels take a lot of confidence in one or two horses on top. Boxes are easier but if you don't hit them you'll waste more money normally that you could use later for a more confident pick.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 16:11:09 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

Remember Draynay, who used to bray about boxing superfectas in seven-horse races?

That's the kind of boxing we're talking about, the kind where the person can't take a stab at who is actually going to win but is desperate for the juice of a winning ticket.

Me, personally, I'd lose more money if I boxed more than I single. From both the perspective of both pyschology and bankroll, I feel I still have to "pick a winner" if I bet an exotic. If I key the "1" in a 1-2-3 trifecta and it comes up 2-1-3 I can live with losing, because I was wrong; if I don't have a feeling about who I think the WINNER is I feel I shouldn't bet the race. Betting $2 on a 1-2-3 keyed trifecta is just a better proposition for me than $6 1-2-3 box (my winning bet my first time ever at the track, incidentally). Also, for my part, I feel like there's just too much randomness in exotics, unless I feel I really can visualize the race (as in something like the Preakness or Belmont). Afer all, how do you pick who's going to be third?

As far as multi-race bets go, you're right, of course. But I play them for a couple reasons and with a condition. First, I keep a rule of singling one race on a ticket, and it can be chalk, as long as it's not too chalky (less than even money). In the races I can't figure, I pick as many horses as I think can WIN, as opposed to hit the board. The multi-race bet also gives you a chance to account for the race you can't figure out -- it makes sense to pick a lot of horses in the races that are iscrutable (or, better, not play at all), but is an especially good angle where there is a vulnerable, chalky favorite. For me, personally, betting a few potential winners is more doable than figuring out who is going to come in third, but others will differ, and some of those others are probably a lot better at handicapping and betting. There can also be another reason for multi-race betting a lot of people won't admit to, an insidious one that's crept into my betting the past couple losing campaigns: a multi-race bet usually delays pain: you can stay "alive". When you're winning this can serve as a nice incidental money-management function, but when you're losing, it amounts to playing with scared money.

All this reminds me: when I did win consistently it was more because I was good bettor than because I was a good handicapper (I also enjoyed a long spell where my track regularly carded a MSpW in its Pick 4).

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 14:30:47 GMT

Dr. D - Patience is a virtue in general, but for me, it is a vice. I have lost more potential winning bets by chickening out of betting a horse I liked than I can count. Good paying bets, too. Not enough confidence in my own analysis. And even when I do bet, I will often cheap out - only $2 across the board on Calidoscopio, which I was praising to the skies as the obvious horse. I'm a child of folks who were young adults during The Real Depression and they taught me well.

But so long as I don't have to refill my betting account too often, I'm okay with having regrets. Sure, I like to win money - who doesn't? - but to have one's judgment vindicated is a win, too, even if I backed off putting money on it.

P.S. Lot of dissing of boxing horses in here. Make 8 bets to win 1. But don't folks who make multi-race bets do the same thing? If you don't single every race, you are going to have plenty of losing tickets along with any winner you might have. Why is it okay for horizontal bets and not vertical ones? Am puzzled.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

JayJay — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 05:27:09 GMT

Dr. Drunkimbum : Yeah, to me personally, betting small and winning big is much more rewarding, and not just the money but being able to pick a longshot, beating the favorite is what gives me the thrill. It's easy to bet the favorite and people do make money betting big on 2-1 or even 9-5 but I don't like bringing that much budget to play that way. If I bet small, I lose less throughout the day. The hardest part for me is picking the races to bet but I try to pick the tracks that has good payouts. Woodbine, Mohawk, Tampa Bay, Gulfstream, and night races at Remington , Delaware and Retama. Sometime back, I got lucky at Mohawk with a .20 super bet that paid over 2Gs. I spent less than $5. The biggest hit I had this year was a Tampa Bay .50 P5 back in January. I singled a 60-1 to start with and I did that handicapping the jockey, Angel Serpa, paid 15Gs for .50 cent. I was in pain knowing I hit that much with an $8 investment, in pain because it took all my energy and brain power trying not to wet myself and the walk to the restroom was like 1000 miles and I was going 2 MPH.

I also like playing the big races, but unfortunately, I have not been lucky with hitting the big payouts. I'll definitely keep trying, but my goal/challenge next year is to focus on winning A pick 6, doesn't matter which track. I just want to be able to hit one lol.

Keelerman : Thanks for the info on Zen's sister. I wonder what happened to her other half sister who was a vertigeneux/Henrythenavigator bred. Foaled in May of 2010. Last I read was that she was offered at the 2011 November Keeneland sale, maybe Pete knows about her. Heck, maybe Pete owns her :)

re: Executiveprivilege returns

THE KEYMASTER — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 05:01:42 GMT

Great stuff Keelerman.

I hope for the sake of the horse, that Mentor Cane improves by 10+ lengths on the turf, making the decision easy for Shirreffs.

I have grown very tired of the Kentucky Derby and even more so, Churchill Downs. The point system that CD has incorporated this year is even more flawed than graded stakes earning system in the past. Now only 36 races get you into the KY Derby. CD should be burned to the ground for trying to cut Hawthorne's throat by not awarding the Illinois Derby any points on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

In my opinion, the Kentucky Derby is the most over rated race on the planet. It has never been the best horses in the country anyway. Just a bunch of 3-year-olds, most of which have been rushed into trying to get 10F on the dirt in May. It is only going to be worse now that CD has decided that a 7F turf race at Newmarket for juveniles has more creedence in producing a Derby contender than the IL Derby. CD has acted tyrannical yet again in pursuit of higher dividends for their shareholders while sacrificing what is best for racing.

In every other major racing jurisdiction in the world, turf racing is the prominent surface. I wish racing in the USA would get with the program and focus more on turf racing and attracting matchups with what are really the best horses in the world.

So I guess by now, you probably know my answer to your question... I wouldn't even think about pointing a horse to the Kentucky Derby unless the horse took me there.

So in the case of Mentor Cane, the only way I would consider pointing him to the KY Derby is if he doesn't show any form on the turf and then he freaks when switched back to the dirt.

It is indeed very interesting that Mentor Cane does not have any inbreeding in the first 5 generations, especially with some very prominent sire lines throughout his pedigree. Thanks for pointing that out.

There is some significant inbreeding deep in the dam's side of Mentor Cane's pedigree. It is interesting to see the great influence of Nearco in her pedigree through Bold Ruler, Nashua, and Northern Dancer.

Also, it is interesting to notice that Mentor Cane is inbred 5S x 6D to Princquillio, the sire of Prince John and sire of the dam of Secretariat.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Kevin — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 01:45:15 GMT

Great comments Dr Drunkinbum and Rusty.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 23:29:49 GMT

Rusty Weisner

Patience is a virtue that I don't have enough of to wait and pounce. I've tried it. Personality traits are a definite factor in how one plays and wins at the races. I'm going to stick to the JayJay School of Handicapping for the most part- bet a little to win a lot, and have fun. Someday I'd like to go to the track more like I used to to. 1986 to about 1999 I went quite often and had the time of my life. This century has been almost all online. I've come very close to The Derby superfecta, and will keep trying. That is definitely a good race to play the super. I hope you have continued success with your patience and pounce on some big scores. Betting within ones financial comfort zone is another good way to win. Getting out of the zone with much bigger than usual bets can sometimes effect the decision making process. It's a tricky business, so many variables involved.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

-Keelerman — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 21:36:56 GMT

For those who are interested, Zenyatta's half-sister Eblouissante is entered to race in Saturday's fourth race at Betfair Hollywood Park. It is a 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race, and she will be facing just four rivals.

Here are the entries:

PP/Horse/Jockey/Trainer

1 Glowing Spirit/Edwin Maldonado/A. C. Avila

2 The Only Key/Victor Espinoza/Dean Greenman

3 Eblouissante/Corey Nakatani/John Shirreffs

4 Include the Cat/Garrett Gomez/Julio Canani

5 Toomanytomatoes/Rafael Bejarano/Dean Pederson

-Keelerman

re: Executiveprivilege returns

LAZMANICK — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 21:27:16 GMT

Rusty

Nice post. I know I can relate to a lot of what you stated, not all, but probably most of it.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

-Keelerman — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 21:17:20 GMT

(I submitted this earlier today, but it never came up . . . so here it is again!)

Keymaster;

Excellent points regarding Gone West, Dynaformer, and Pleasant Colony! Let me expound on your thoughts by adding that Mentor Cane's dam, Vixana, was campaigned entirely on turf and synthetic tracks with moderate success, further supporting the idea that Mentor Cane will be best suited to turf in the end.

I find it interesting that you should mention the downhill turf as a possibility for Mentor Cane this winter. The thought had crossed my mind as well, for Shirreffs campaigned Mr. Commons in a similar fashion during the winter of 2010/2011. After starting the colt off in a 6-1/2 furlong Cushion Track sprint, he switched Mr. Commons to the downhill turf, where he excelled and won by 5 1/2 lengths.

So it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Shirrefs campaigns Mentor Cane much like he did Mr. Commons two years ago. The question now is this: If you were the trainer of Mentor Cane, and in his second start he romped to victory in a downhill sprint at Santa Anita, would you give him a shot at dirt in hopes that he would take to it and emerge as a Triple Crown contender? Or would you keep him on the turf and hope to have a good Breeders' Cup Mile/Turf/Turf Sprint candidate later in the year, depending upon how much stamina he displayed during the summer?

Lastly, I would like to make note of the fact that Mentor Cane has absolutely no inbreeding within the first five generations of his pedigree. Any thoughts on that?

I've really enjoyed talking with you!

-Keelerman

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 20:33:04 GMT

Dr. Drunkinbum,

I had two winning years a decade ago. The difference? I went twice a week to live racing at the track (I even carried binoculars), whereas I now do maybe a half a dozen marquee dates and sometimes a few Saratoga weekends in a row. I could "sit" on horses back then, and I had a good sense particularly of which winners were the ones to bet to win again (my nom de blog is an amalgam of the two horses that won me the most money). Just as importantly, I bet less when I won more.

Nowadays the game is different for me -- I really am, alas, that "losing hobbyist". A lot of things will keep me playing the rest of my life: love of the arcana of handicapping, the pageantry of the sport, the argot, the culture, the other bettors, and, above all, the action. But I'm not going to kid myself: the only thing that matters is winning in the end. For now I have the patience to wait between shots, not do crazy boxing, stake my few days at the track on picking a single winner or two, lay off the game for a couple months at a time, keep a budget. Even if I'm not a winner for the time being, I still have the confidence that I'll be ready when the heavens align and the sky opens up, and I hit that Kentucky Derby or Breeder's Cup Pick-4 (white whales I've been chasing for three years now) or, intriguing me since last year: the Kentucky Derby superfecta.

I agree about Pete and his picks. His first comment on his Ron the Greek post last month reminded me about one of the hardest things there is to do, psychologically speaking, in handicapping: change your bet or lay off a horse you like in the face of a track bias or some other circumstance.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:12:23 GMT

Rusty Weisner

Horse racing is the most complicated form of gambling, and I believe that is one reason we love it, for the challenge of it. I've had some sucessful years and have tried different approaches. Everyone's mind works differently, and a single mind works differently on a given day. Unless you have a boring fixed formula it is all about making betting decisions under pressure especially if you incorporate physicality much of the time as I do. Sometimes I'm hot and sometimes I'm not and it usually has to do with how my brain is working, although at times it is just good or bad racing luck. 99% of bettors can't master the betting game on a consistent basis because of a variety of factors but usually because of over confidence, under confidence or the inability to be flexible or to adapt to changing conditions of the horses, tracks, trainers or the individual betting mind. Public horse racing handicappers have very difficult jobs especially when trying to make picks well ahead of time when conditions may change in the meantime. Mst go safely with favorites tto attempt to keep thier percentage high while failing miserably at it. I only admire the public handicappers that take risks with longshots and incorporate physicality into their game. I think Pete is good and I would wager that many of his early picks are not his late picks and wager of choice. As Kevin said, you can win at 40% and still lose money. My best years were when I had a number of exotic scores at a win % of 20% or less overall. Some of my worst years were winning around 40%. I also think I win more when I am more reckless and don't take it serious and go for the good exotic scores. Good luck. Play what you win at but keep in mind that what you win at could change. How common is this: "If only I had played the super instead of the WPS, or I should have played the WPS on my longshot instead of the tri." A lot of decisions and money management to deal with in this wild ride. Sometimes it's all about knowing the race or the track and getting in touch with your instincts as to what is the right decision, and that takes the brain working on an optimal trajectory as Forbidden Apple does when he is hot.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 17:15:45 GMT

Wow, Maragh finally woke up and won 4 races over the weekend. He's still ice cold and scared, a liablity for my account.

I thought Assateague ran a huge race on sunday at 20-1 while showing off a new closing kick. I only wish that Rocco would have placed her on the outside. If she gets a clean run next time, look for her in the winner's circle.

In the Soviet Problem Unusual Way beat another 2/5 favorite, but was no match for the winner on a closer friendly highway at Hollywood. I had a nice double going with Deacon Speakin'/Unusual Way, the track bias beat me. I can't complain since Pure Fun roared past the other 2/5 no show on saturday. Gomez has mastered Hollywood Park at the moment with well timed rides in abundance.

Keymaster,

I agree with Dr. Drunkinbum, bet on races in which you often win money on. For me I love handicapping Stakes races and almost any turf race beyond 6f. I focus on 2 or 3 tracks and watch races daily, even when I don't bet on them. It helps me keep track of the hot trainers/jockeys and how each surface is playing. Having a horses to watch for list is also helpful for me.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 16:09:20 GMT

Off topic -- for those who like to mock Andy Beyer (not usually me, by the way), I had to offer something, but held off on posting it until after the recent elections, not wanting to taint this blog, which is an oasis from politics for me.

In October the Washington Post asked twenty of its columnists, from all walks, what their predictions were for the winner of the Presidential contest and the electoral tally. Only two picked the loser. One of them was Beyer.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 15:44:38 GMT

Dr. Drunkinbum,

I had to smile when I read this:

"It's more fun betting the races as a losing hobby with some fun wins along the way than trying to make a living at it on a consistant basis."

I often comfort myself this way. Were it so!

But one day, and it will be soon -- May, in fact -- I'll stop being a "losing hobbyist" and with a stroke become a winning horseplayer.

Before then, I hope to make some forays starting in February.

Until then, I'm really enjoying the thread, everyone. Congratulations on this weekend to Forbidden Apple and THE KEYMASTER on a lucrative pick. That will go into my mental file of which commenters comments here merit the most attention.

For those with Derby fever, a couple of the columnists at ESPN had Derby watch lists up already.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Kevin — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 13:50:01 GMT

Ploy Boy Phil: Nice try at the psychology lesson. But rest assured that I do not come to a blog to get reassurance from people I don't know. If I post a "I can't believe I did that" its to get insight from others who might have done the same thing and how they reacted to or changed their approaches to improve next time.

My blog about the handicapping contest was true to point supporting Pete's comment that in a contest format, every long shot will be covered and you only have to get lucky once to win. Some are good handicappers and picked true winners. Others are just taking stabs....case in point the national handicapping challenge where 1/5 of the entries finish with no money at the end of the event. Some are just taking stabs and not handicapping.

There is also a major flaw in this book. Intent is to change mentality (which I got) so people wouldn't be part of the 98% losers. But in a para mutuel system the majority is the loser. So if enough people change, they become a new set of losers.

My wife always tells me if you don't run, they can't chase you. So I will leave out all the "right back at you" criticism you tried throwing at me from incomplete information.

I'll just leave it good luck to you as well.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 05:20:48 GMT

Keelerman-

You know your bloodlines very well.

I agree with your thoughts on Tapit, very useful sire on any surface, especially going a route on dirt.

Mizzen Mast is certainly on fire. I think he has too much turf in his pedigree to think that he would be a better dirt sire. Sometimes horses can freak in unexplicable ways and I guess Mizzen Mast's affinity for the dirt was the case. Also, being a Juddmonte homebred, he has access to one of the best turf broodmare bands in the world. So I assume Mizzen Mast's offspring will continue to excel on the turf and synthetics.

Speaking of broodmares, it is interesting to note that the dam of Flashback is by Mr. Greely who is by Gone West and the dam of Mentor Cane is by Gone West. Both good multi-purpose sires, but I think both are slightly better on turf.

However, the bottom side of Flashback's dam is Pleasant Colony, who I prefer slightly on dirt. The bottom side of Mentor Cane's pedigree is Dynaformer, who I prefer slightly on the turf.

So it does indeed seem that Flashback has a more dirt oriented pedigree and Mentor Cane has a more turf oriented pedigree.

I do not foresee any problem for Flashback to transition to the dirt. His full sister Zazu had no problem with it and he has had many works at Santa Anita.

With the CA circuit transitioning to SA in a couple weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if we were to eventually see Mentor Cane go down the hill. He went in 22 and 45 on Cushion track in his first start, so he should be able to easily go sub 22 and sub 45 down the hill. I would also think that he should be able to carry his speed further on the turf and he could end up being a very good miler.

Will look forward to your thoughts.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 04:28:47 GMT

JayJay -

My intent was not to degrade Kevin, though clealy it came across that way. I will say that in my defense, I can guarantee that the next time he or anyone around him pulls out a losing ticket followed by the phrase, 'look what I just did', the content of my post will ring out.

My comments had nothing to do with being a 'pro' or betting style, or bet size - all irrelevant factors as far as I'm concerned.

Had Kevin written your words, "...I'm such a loser", I never would have responded as I did. While both are negative, the 'poor me' content of his posts seemed clear. It's worth noting that since I started reading this Blog, I recall just two two posts that fit the profile.

I haven't told anyone to read the book in a long time. I make a point of staying out of race tracks and simulcast centers despite betting horses five days a week. I can't speak to the mental state of our subscribers, other than to applaud them for understanding the value of what we do.

For what it's worth, I posted a pair for tomorrow on the site. Both are too slow and will be big prices.....just the way we like 'em.

I get Derby fever on the first Thursday in May.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 04:27:49 GMT

JayJay

I have 15 on my Derby Dozen list but am not feverish yet. Happy Holidays !!!! You're definitely a joy to follow on the blogs, fighting for truth, justice and the blogger's way. I never should have switched from scotch to martinis. My New Year's resolutions are to go back to scotch, bet more for fun so I can win more and to get to live racing.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

JayJay — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 03:47:22 GMT

Keelerman : Thanks for the update on Palace Malice, I'm really looking forward to seeing him again. I'm hoping he'll be ready to go. I'm starting to pay attention to the "maidens" coming out of the woodwork, been spending time in the Maiden Watch section of Bloodhorse. I swear, I see so many 2 yr olds that when I see the breeding, I go "this horse is going to be a superstar!!" then they run their maiden race and brings me back to reality. I'm really enjoying that site though.

Plod Boy Phil : Posting thoughts about losing a bet doesn't necessarily mean the person is whining or that person has a losers mindset. Remember, this is a blog. People can post "I can't believe I lost that LAST RACE, I'm such a loser!!" and you can read that as the person being depressed, or angry or gone postal but it's very possible that the person who posted it was actually laughing hard because they feel stupid for not having the right horse in the last leg. Just curious, how do you "talk" to your members if they "whine" to you about their bets ? Do you tell them to read that book ? I'm going to guess that it's not your intention to degrade Kevin but I think it's how you worded your posts that makes people think that you were.

Dr. Drunkinbum : You're the smartest blogger I know! Have you started your Derby Dozen yet ? I'm starting to get the feeeeeevahhhhhh!

re: Executiveprivilege returns

-Keelerman — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 03:27:03 GMT

Thanks for your reply, Keymaster! I enjoyed reading your thoughts!

Now, let's expound a bit on the original question and ponder this: On which surface will each colt excel on the most? Saturday's race was conducted on Cushion Track, considered to be the synthetic track most like dirt. Now, being a son of Tapit, I am inclined to think that Flashback will enjoy the transition to dirt -- Tapit's progeny have been successful on a variety of surfaces, but the majority of them have been best on dirt. They have also tended to be somewhat early-maturing, as the Breeders' Cup success of Stardom Bound (2008 Juvenile Fillies), Tapitsfly (2009 Juveniles Fillies Turf), and Hansen (2011 Juvenile) demonstrates.

Mentor Cane has a different sort of pedigree. His sire is Mizzen Mast, bred by Juddmonte Farms. As a racehorse, Mizzen Mast was moderately successful on turf, winning the group III Prix de Guiche at Longchamp and the ungraded Bien Bien Stakes at Santa Anita. But on dirt he was a different horse entirely, sweeping to decisive victories in the Malibu Stakes (gr. I) and the Strub Stakes (gr. II) before retiring undefeated over the surface.

However, Mizzen Mast's progeny have been vastly superior on turf and synthetic than dirt. His leading runners include Mast Track, winner of the 2008 Hollywood Gold Cup; Mizdirection, winner of the 2012 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint; Flotilla, winner of the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf; Midships, winner of the 2009 Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap; and Ultimate Eagle, winner of the 2011 Hollywood Derby.

So although Mizzen Mast himself seemed to be at his best racing on dirt, his progeny have lived up to their sire's pedigree and enjoyed great success on turf and synthetic tracks. Will Mentor Cane follow suit?

I think you're absolutely right in thinking that Flashback will be the better three-year-old, and Mentor Cane will be the better horse in the long run. I think their sire's records back up that thought.

So the question is, does Mentor Cane have a future on dirt? Or will his sire's tendency to produce good turf horses shine through? What about Flashback? Will he improve with the transition to dirt, or does the natural ability he showcased on Cushion Track signal that his future may be on the synthetics?

I look forward to your thoughts!

-Keelerman

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 02:42:43 GMT

Kevin -

I had an incling that you wouldn't, or didn't, get it.

My recommending the book had nothing to do with your picks - win or lose. Rather, it was an attempt to move you in the right direction to possibly eliminate a problem that befalls many - a losers mindset. For those with it, more is gaied by sharing stories of failure thnn by actually doing what it takes to be successful.

The public whining looking for strokes and reassurance is classic. First with the Tournament Format post in which you degraded the winners and elevated your own performance - right out of Sartin's work. Most recently, it was with the 'woe is me' story about the failed 192 combination P6 ticket in which you had 5 winners but your single lost. Text book 'poor me'.

Best of racing luck.

-PBP

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 02:35:07 GMT

Kevin

Excellent response to an opinion about you that was wrong. I enjoy your posts and in your last post you brought up some very important points. Yes, it is all about the personal mindset and personal betting goals. Some people have the patience to make certain types of bets, some don't. To some people it is important to make money, to others it is more important to have fun and to have a shot at a good score while not betting that much. There certainly is nothing wrong with a Pk6 stab, and your chances are probably as good betting $10 as $100 of hitting it. It's more fun betting the races as a losing hobby with some fun wins along the way than trying to make a living at it on a consistant basis. Most people need a fairly big score in a race to win over the long haul. I am a little bit shocked at how many people here are telling others how they should bet. If someone wins playing boxes than that is probably how they should play. However someone wins is how they should play. I definitely enjoyed the bet less to win more approach that JayJay has over the betting more for smaller gains approach. For most people in the exotics it is more cost effective to key a horse or two on top if they win. The key is what you win at but that can change from year to year. I had one year where I won a lot playing trifecta boxes, but haven't won anything playing them since. Have fun and good luck.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 02:06:34 GMT

Correction:

Howard Sartin: The Psychologoy of Winning.

re: Executiveprivilege returns

Kevin — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 02:04:08 GMT

Plod Boy Phil: I read your recommendation. Little inight into me. I cash about 40% of my tickets but like 98% of handicappers, I lose money. Obvious I bet too many favorites and/or don't bet right.

I "studied" under a great handicapper at Fairmount Park in Illinois for a year. He was in it for the money, could watch a full days of races and not bet if he didn't get the odds he wanted. But when he bet, he bet nothing but $100 (or more) to win and never accepted less than 2-1 odds.

I learned after a few months that I'm not that patient. I love the excitement of the race when I have money on it. Same excitement if I have $2 to show or $20 to win. I never bet more than $20 on a race unless its the Derby or Breeders Cup.

To me its a hobby more than a money making adventure. Sure, I want to be good at it and win more than I lose, but I'm not upset if I lose $100 a week (what it would cost to play golf or hit the clubs or whatever other hobby you can think of).

So good book, but didn't really apply.

I'll continue posting my picks and learning from others who do the same.