Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 04:08:18 GMT

Chief Pic-

I'll leave with the following point to consider.

We're all familiar with a popular definition of insanity. It goes something along the lines of 'repeating the same actions over and over with the expectation of a getting a different result'.

This description fits the losing horseplayer to a T.

Each year, the same methods, the same routine, and the same flawed thinking will lead to the exact same result, yet most will persevere, or as you put it, 'keep playing the way I do'.

Thanks for the good wishes.

Best of racing luck to you in 2013. I hope your methods leave you inspired, invigorated and within easy striking distance of a year in the black at any moment.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 02:10:52 GMT

Plod Boy Phil good luck with your business and your pics,if I missed the point then we dont think alike so I guess I will keep playing the way I do.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 23:58:09 GMT

Chief Pica -

You are missed the point - what a surprise.

I am not looking for credibility here or anywhere else - Racing Flow already has it.

When I do post my next horse here, it will be minutes before the race, especially if it is an upgrade that is part of the subscribers' Graded Report.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 23:03:18 GMT

Plod Boy Phil since you know the methodology best,I am patient, and can wait until you get a play that in your mind is a standout, at a good price and post it before the race on this blog.IMO that will provide you with the most credibility on this blog,then any after the fact scores.I myself rarely post any picks unless I think they are my best ideas.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Pete Denk — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 20:04:00 GMT

PlodBoy-

Considering the above column that talked about Lady Banks (and the previous column touting her before her debut), I was clearly on the record with my selection.

I posted who I had in the last leg of the P4 (before the race), as a matter of interest and to show the mechanics of how I pressed an opinion on an even money shot. The p4 play was a single on Lady Banks and to cover all the logical contenders in the other legs.

I got lucky that some of the longer priced horses on my ticket popped in the "spread" legs.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

JayJay — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 19:20:38 GMT

I tried posting my picks last night but it's either I clicked refresh before the submit button or it went to the internet blackhole :)

Keelerman : Nice list, going to keep an eye out of some of your not so well known picks. My derby watch list keeps growing, lots of good prospects out there that have yet to be seen. Here's my first stab on a derby dozen. Of course, this is subject to change. I'm one of those that waits until I see the horses run after turning 3. I liked the way these horses ran their races and that's how I ranked them. I can't say they'll all be there on derby day but these are the horses I'll be watching closely.

Overanalyze : Horse looks to still learning how to race, although he could be a monster in the making and was just toying with Normandy in the Remsen after putting away Delhomme.

Shanghai Bobby : Was really impressed with his BCJ run, mainly due to the change of not using lasix for the first time and still managed to grind out a win. Let's see how he does in the major preps. I don't know if the TP curse is on him.

Violence : His freight train run was totally impressive. He was my 2nd pick in the Cashcall, behind Den's Legacy but his run just blew me away.

Pure Fun (f) : I think at this time, this filly is at the same level as the top boys this year. I hope they go to the Oaks instead of the derby though. She seems special and would not want to see her ruined for the glory of the derby.

Bern Identity : I liked his Delta race a lot, his jockey put him in a tough position and had to make him work hard swinging outside (maybe 4 or 5 wide). That's the kind of run I like to see in the Derby.

Tesseron : I'm not sure if they'll travel with him but is my pick over River Seven in a synthetic major prep.

Mylute (Needs a jockey change) : I think he moved way too early in the Delta and didn't really have that much left in the stretch. I hope they put Jose Lezcano on him. I'm looking forward to seeing him run in the major preps. Anyone want to bet he ends up with Baffert come derby time ?

Normandy Invasion : I'm still not sure how he lost to Overanalyze with his sustained run in the Remsen. He looked really good gobbling up grounds.

Uncaptured : Have to draw a line in his Grey race in Woodbine. I don't think he liked the surface. I'll see how he does in his next race.

Palace Malice : I like the fact that he's got one race as a 2 yr old, and working on his comeback slowly. I'd like to see him in a minor stakes for his next race.

Absolute Beauty (f) : Nice maiden win, like the breeding.

Value Trap : Another nice maiden win and breeding. I don't if he's got the distance in him but I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a prep race next year.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 19:19:48 GMT

Pete -

Any thoughts on your post of Dec 14 - 2:07pm, in which you 'crow' about a successful, yet unposted, 3rd leg of a Pick 4. While I have no doubt that the ticket was legit - it does seem to fall outside the 'rules'.

Rusty -

I'm a bit disappointed that you did not provide any support for your opinion about the BC Sprint. We do have an modest opinion about the race, but posting it here would likely be consider tautological in nature.

Chief Picawinna -

Details to obtain free Graded Reports and Flow figures have been made available on this thread, twice. A sign up form may be found at the bottom of the home page.

The important thing to note is our large subscriber base that has been with us for two years or more. There is a reason these players and a growing number like them spend between $600-$720/yr.

Racing Flow subscribers are intelligent, pace and bias driven handicappers with the requisite understanding of the difference between long term productivity and short term results.

While we have subscribers spread out over 18 states and Canada, it is no coincidence that the market in which we've had the longest and most regular exposure, upstate NY via Capital OTB, has produced the most users.

Best of racing luck to all.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

-Keelerman — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 18:44:25 GMT

Pete -- when will you be posting your initial top twenty? I look forward to hearing your thoughts!

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

-Keelerman — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 15:02:32 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Sorry I didn't reply to you sooner than this -- I had written a rather lengthy reply, but accidently erased it . . .

Regarding Dewey Square, I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch, but seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all. And as Coldfacts mentioned above, he is training very well at Gulfstream.

As for Frac Daddy, he certainly could be in my top dozen -- there are just so many other colts that I like just as well or better! I'm sure he'll work his way on to my list before too long, as I continuously shift things around and around . . . :)

-Keelerman

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Pete Denk — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:54:33 GMT

ColdFActs-

I agree that Dewey Square was ridden too conservatively early in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. Nice moving horse. He will be on my initial top 20.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:42:23 GMT

Coldfacts,

Thanks for the detailed response. I really enjoy your comments at this early stage of the trail, when pedigree is the big subject of discussion. Sorry to make you relive a losing pick, though, even if it's one you shouldn't regret.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

tcc — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:36:37 GMT

Don't let Derby Fever get you in December. El Kabong 19 Dec 2012 2:09 PM.

Sometimes it can happen, as I was able to find Smarty Jones and Big Brown in December before their Kentucky Derby wins.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:31:46 GMT

By the way, since Keelerman's shown himself for a long time here to be a good handicapper and picker, and since he follows the rules of the site Pete mentions above, I thought I'd mention that he has his own site. You can google him.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Coldfacts — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:14:53 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

The extract from a previous post might provide some insight into why Keelerman is high on Dewey Square:-

Ranagulzion,

“It is well known that you have labeled horses from the A P Indy sire line as being affected by Late Development Syndrome (LDS). After consuming portions of the rather large bird that is featured on the tables of each household on TG day. Try to digest the fact that a Bernardini colt will romp in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and in so doing will remain undefeated in 3 starts.

Dewey Square did not meet his reserve in the Select 2YO sale in which he was entered. His breeders refused $575K suggesting he is considered to be something special. Bernardini’s stud fee is $140K and therefore $435K should have been sufficient to all costs with plenty left for a significant profit.

His connections should have been charged with a crime for his 11 3/4L thrashing of the 1-2 favorite in his debut at Hoosier Park. He was then entered in an Optional Claiming race at CD and won under minimum urging.

This colt covers ground effortlessly just like his sire. I am aware the Uncaptured will be the overwhelming favorite but I suspect Dewey Square will be asked to run on Saturday and I am looking forward to an impressive performance that will launch him as one watch on the Derby trail.

NB: 3-1 or 4-1 will not be available on this colt after Saturday.”

Needless to say when I saw 6-1 in the KJC Stakes I went in for the kill and lost a ton. I was not pleased with the ride he received as he was no allowed to engage the leaders as he did in his previous two starts. The pace was moderate and there was no way he was going to make up sufficient ground on the leaders in the stretch to win. He recently worked 59 effortlessly in Florida and his trainer commented after that he has turned the corner. He was a physically imposing Select Sale yearling

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 08:28:49 GMT

Plod Boy Phil as per the previous post by blogmaster Pete Denk since you dont post the picks on here before the race I personally dont think your advertising will be effective.If Im not mistaken I read that your site has been operational for four years,if you are so confident in the method what about a free trial?

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Pete Denk — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 05:48:10 GMT

Anyone, including Plod Boy Phil, is welcome to post picks and handicapping logic whenever they want.

But one rule: if u r on here representing your own website or "system," don't crow about selections that were not posted on this blog. It amounts to unsubstantiated advertising. I am going to delete those posts if I see them, especially from repeat offenders.

So post your plays, share your logic, accept plaudits or defeat, and we can all form our own opinions and learn.

I appreciate all the posts on this blog. It is even entertaining at times.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Pete Denk — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 05:01:51 GMT

Good discussion folks.

There are no graded stakes this Saturday, so Tom and I will talk 2yos on That Handicapping Show tomorrow.

Save your lists to post on the new blog tomorrow.

Keelerman, I like a couple of your's.

Dewey Square is interesting. Perhaps a slight reach at #1, but I really liked how he looked physically in the Ky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Footlick — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 03:59:51 GMT

Plod Boy Phil- been away from BH for a few days. Thanks for the offer, but I really only concentrate on Euro racing anymore. I follow racing in the US, but rarely bet unless I am at Arlington Park, and then I bet to support the track. I usually break even once beer and food are included without being too serious about it. And the people are good people there so when it is open I =like to go on Sundays and just relax and have a nice time. I will drop by your site soon though and have a look around. I'll drop you an e-mail there to say hi!

Thanks again.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 21:22:49 GMT

Keelerman,

I'm game for any list.

What do you like about Dewey Square so much to put him first? And why'd you leave off Frac Daddy?

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

-Keelerman — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:13:07 GMT

Coldfacts;

You needn't worry about providing me with too many details; I enjoy every last one!

Thank you for bringing Tulira Castle to my attention. He does look like a good one.

I am also intrigued by the runner-up in Tulira Castle's most recent start, that being the Michael Matz-trainee Fredericksburg. After spending the first four starts of his career on turf, the switch to dirt yielded a much-improved performance. Being of a son Speightstown out of a Dynaformer mare, I have the feeling that distance will not be an issue for Fredericksburg. Do you have any thoughts?

-Keelerman

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

El Kabong — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:09:34 GMT

Predict,

Whoa Nelly(belle)!!! It's still December and the talent of any of these possible contenders is subject to all the growth and maturity that will take place over the next 2-3 months. Violence is a very good two year old and 3-0 is a great record but even that is subject to the "who did he beat" question come April. I didn't exactly toot his horn, nor really anyone else in particular in CashCall, but I did put Violence in a group of 4 that I thought stood out and would take the tri of that race. Two very good races and the fact that Pletcher saw fit to ship him against a horse(HHE) he presumed would run as well as Shanghai was a pretty good clue this was a serious horse. My only question on Violence was the track surface but he handled it well. That time for 1 1/16th isn't bad at all for 2 year olds, in fact, I think it's a good one. Most of the AW times are typically slower than the fast dirt times. This guy is a player and should be followed but a derby shoe in call this soon is very bold my seasoned capper :0

Current Derby watch list:

Uncaptured, Normandy Invasion, Manando, Violence, Dewey Square, Overanalyze, Frac Daddy, Capo Bastone, He's Had Enough, Shanghai B, River Seven, Indiano Jones, Tesseron, Gulfport, Joha, Power Broker and of course, Hi-Hat. All have shown some talent(some in film) but even if you gave me a future win on them all, I wouldn't feel real confident about cashing at this point. Don't let Derby Fever get you in December. If your fever persists, Call Dr. Hugo Z.Hackenbush and have him prescribe you something. I swear by him. And stay away from the tutsi fruitsy ice-a-cream.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Coldfacts — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 18:01:44 GMT

Predict,

Do you remember a colt by the name Union Rags? He was produced from a Gone West mare like Violence. He was more impressive than Violence and was the early favorite for the Derby. It’s way too early to commit to any one horse.

Violence is trained by Todd Pletcher who has won one Derby from 39 starters. He holds the record for consecutive last place finishers in the great race. The colt might be talented but his trainer’s Derby program does not inspire confidence.

Here are 10 colts that are flying under the radar that you can evaluate. Tulira Castle, Little Distorted, Purple Egg, Mountain Eagle, Boundless Heart, Smooth Bert, Fear The Kitten, Orb, Transparent and Narvaez.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

predict — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 17:27:18 GMT

I have already seen the winner of next year's Kentucky Derby. His name is Violence, three for three now, and will be the choice come the first Saturday in May. This horse must be one of the best kept secrets ever or the connections are surprised like everyone else. I don't think anyone here was tooting his horn before the Cash

Cal, but you should be now. I don't care that the race was run in slow time, I don't care that he is a Medaglia D'Oro(never showed great 1 1/4 mile ability), but everything changed for the Kentucky Derby scene when he won this race. There was someone who was aware of his ability before the Cash Cal, because he or they dropped one hundred grand on him to win the race, which moved him from what I think was about 7 to 2 odds down to I think it was 6 to 5 at post time. If anyone has seen a better prospect for the Derby next year, I would love to hear about it.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 16:51:31 GMT

Rusty -

What about the BC Sprint made you believe it was the 'epitome' of the Biased track ?

Do you know the magnitude of a Bias that would have been required to merely offset the Flow of the BC Juvenile so that it would be fair to all, never mind to make it favorable to Speed ?

In retrospect, I should have written, 'subjective speculation and of little value', rather than 'meaningless', or stipulated (again) that it is meaningless to us.

Does the commonality of an opinion garnished using the same flawed methods somehow make it 'correct'? Everyone said so, so it must be true.

We're big fans of Groucho and Brothers. a truly funny racing video has been posted on the last page of our site for the btter part of a year now.

re: Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 15:44:34 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Let me go to two quotes of yours. First:

"HHE failed to go by the winner Shanghai Bobby despite the extremely favorable Closers Flow on a track that was not biased."

I interpreted that the same way everyone else here did. You didn't perceive a bias that prevailed all day. I cited the Sprint as the epitome of that bias -- again, everyone else here understood that.

One of your answers to that was this:

"Flow is the measurement WE assigned to a particluar race. Without knowledge of Flow ('race shape' to over simplify), any judgement of track Bias is purely subjective speculation and meaningless."

Does everyone here understand what a tautology is?

To quote Groucho Marx, "Who do you believe, me or your lying eyes?"

Pardon me! That should have been "...US or your lying eyes".