Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 19:25:41 GMT

Hello friends,

Enjoying the posts and education! IMO...Any "serious" Derby selections have little value until we know the post positions. I'm looking forward to posting my Superfecta selection the day before the OAKS. Shall I be so bold as to act like I have it cold, or can I get approval for a four house super box? With the assumption that the following four get post positions from 4-16, here's what I'm thinking based on odds and hopefully hitting a BIG one!

(BOXED) ORB-JAVA'S WAR-OVERANALYZE-NORMANDY INVASION (ALTERNATE FOR ODDS=REVOLUTIONARY) Regardless....this should be so MUCH FUN!!!! What a day!!!!!!! Good luck all. I hope one of you hits the BIG one!!

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 11:40:23 GMT

PLAGIARISM ALERT

That's all right.

It's okay.

You'll all work

For us some day.

A Yale cheer.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Pete Denk — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 17:45:18 GMT

You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.

New blog is up for weekend picks.

Feel free to repost from here for documentation/discussion...

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Age of Reason — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 17:42:23 GMT

Congratulations, Pete--with a whopping 721 comments I'll bet this has proved to be the most popular blog in a long time. The infamous "She lost get over it" article garnered a little over 1,000 comments if memory serves correctly, but of course that's water under the bridge.

Unlike others no doubt far more passionate that I who try to keep track of every single promising colt (if I tried that I'd never get any sleep, burn out my short-term memory and probably go crazy), I tend to try and have a little more fun at it; so, right now I've been thinking about recent trends of Derby winners and how those trends should be applied to prognosticating this year's race so far out. First off, recent Derby winners have had more Classic-oriented pedigrees (shocker): Big Brown by a Danzig son out of a Nureyev mare, Mine That Bird with 3 consecutive Classic winners in his sire line, Super Saver by Maria's Mon who already had one Derby winner, Animal Kingdom who's by was a Grade 1 winner at nine furlongs and out of Dalicia (whom I believe was a group stakes winner at 12 furlongs) by Deutsches Derby winner Acatenango, and I'll Have Another by Travers winner Flower Alley out of an Arch mare. Further, with the exception of Chip Wooley (Mine That Bird), the winning trainers have been veterans--Dutrow, Pletcher, Motion, O'Neill. And third, while some of the recent Derby winners were more frequently raced than others, all were managed with the Derby seemingly in mind and not allowed to peak in their 2yo year. With that in mind, here's a few newly-turned 3yos which have caught my fancy, in addition to meeting all the above requirements that I think will help to identify legit Derby contenders:

Mountain Eagle (Birdstone-Gulch Legacy, by Gulch; Nick Zito); Footbridge (Street Cry-Thousand Island, by Dubai Millenium; Eoin Harty); Mentor Cane (Mizzen Mast-Vixana, by Gone West; John Shirreffs); Belvin (Empire Maker-Midway Squall, by Storm Bird; Bob Baffert); and Declan's Warrior (Majestic Warrior-Commanche Star, by Saint Ballado; Nick Zito). The past performances for each can easily be found on HRN, and replays here on BloodHorse. Best of luck to all!

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 16:55:24 GMT

Kevin,

I like it when people dope out picks and post their thinking. I'm going to check in later to see how you did. Good luck!

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 16:47:13 GMT

Despite the ML I think Long River will wind up the favorite at 2-1 or lower.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 16:09:42 GMT

JayJay,

No shame betting Amerigo V. at these odds, and I like this angle of two runner-up finishes to W: betting Amerigo V. amounts to making a bet on the potential of the other horse. I also like the odds on Vegas No Show, a respectable known quantity with a lot of appearances under his belt. Long River has the obvious upside, and McLaughlin took Alpha this route last year, but he doesn't have enticing odds. I think I'd take Long River with either of these in an exacta. I'm not betting, though, so glad I don't have to decide.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Karen in Texas — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 15:59:56 GMT

I agree that it will be good for the sport to see Gary Stevens riding again, even on a selective basis. He was always one of my favorites. I was sure he would be the next Triple Crown jockey--maybe there is still a chance...

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 15:33:13 GMT

The sport needs a boost from a professional and classy guy like Gary Stevens. He is clearly on my top 5 riders of all time list. I'd love to see him pick up a KY Derby mount or possibly head to Dubai and take home some oil money.

Uncle Mo is by far the most hyped horse in my lifetime and i've been watching races for a touch over 30 years. But hey, he did beat the immortal Boys At Tosconova. He's bad for racing when he got so cranked up at 2 and then his career went bust after that. I must keep in mind that some folks love that type of training, use them up early and off to stud!

It's hard to put a line through the Remsen for Vegas No Show. He showed nothing and then finished like a turtle. Why is he going to run big tomorrow?

Alpha might be better off in Dubai, he shipped out with Fortify and Emcee after the Breeders Cup. I'd like to see Alpha try a turf race, he might love the green. And the same goes for Emcee, he might be a lawnmower. I think Emcee is pointed towards the Golden Shaheen dragstrip race.

I can not see any horse beating Ultimate Eagle or Goldencents. They are both most likely favorites that can be keyed in any exotics.

And i'd take a win bet on Long River at 3-1, he should run the speed down late.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Louisville Native — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:50:52 GMT

May be Gary Stevens will be developing one of Pete's horses. That's why he says he's returning to riding: to develop horses while riding selectively and remaining in his role as an HRTV and NBC racing analyst, but not to ride $25,000 Maiden Claimers on a daily basis. That will be an interesting prospect to have an active rider as an HRTV analyst especially if he's riding Graded races again and involving himself in the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup contests. I was wondering why I had not seen Gary recently on HRTV with Lafit. Now I know why. He's been in the gym and working horses. His weight is down, but will his knees hold up after 13 knee surgeries ? He says he's good for awhile. We'll see.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Coldfacts — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:48:46 GMT

I am not a great student of the English language but I try to write with clarity to avoid ambiguity.

“number of 3 yr olds fast enough to win the derby...........ZERO!!!!! Which means someone will improve ”

The above quote suggests that 3YOs need to run fast or attain certain Beyer/BRIS ratings to win the Derby. This is not the case. There are many factors that determine a Derby winner and speed is just one of them. Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Charismatic and many other long priced Derby winners did not run great times as 3YOs prior to the Derby.

Algorithms was probably the best 2012, 3YO on the east coast. He recorded a time of 1:36.17 in winning the Holy Bull. Give a second for track conditions and adjust his time to 1:35.17. Algorithm was undoubtedly a top Derby contender with his HB time and potential winner. Quality Road won the Fountain Of Youth in 1:35.01 and his time was considered fast enough to be a potential win the Derby.

Itmyluckuday recorded a time of 1:34.39 in the Gulfstream Park Derby. How can it be concluded that no 3YO has run fast enough to win the Derby with a comparison of the times recorded by Derby contenders Algorithms & Quality Road? When is 1:34.39 considered not fast enough to be a potential Derby winner? The average mile split the last 10 Derbies is 1:36 and a bit.

We are all entitled to formulate opinions but I do recommend that they be based on cold facts.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 13:25:58 GMT

Karen TY for the links,I wasnt implying that you were going to argue who was most hyped between UM and UR.I thought someone would argue that they disagreed with my opinion that UM was the better between those two.I still believe in the US, because of the hard dirt tracks,training methods, and the sheer amount of colts that are on the KY Derby trail,most of the good tyos will not make the starting gate in the Derby.If they make it in the gate they will enter as a colt that has already peaked at this stage in his career.Last year 9 colts entered the gate that were in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile the ONLY one to crack the top three was Dullahan in 3rd.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Kevin — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 11:38:47 GMT

My race of the day, GP Race 5.

Maiden 35,000 Turf 7 1/2 furlongs.

#8 Here Comes DRZ and #9 Full Cry are the ML favorites in what looks like will be wide open race.

Here Comes DRZ has average Beyers and 9 races over turf without a win; against similar company. #9 Full Cry is dropping from MSW, but was claimed by a trainer with a worse win percentage and stats, an angle I never play. Also taking blinkers off after showing no early speed last race....not sure of that intent.

I'm going with #5 Dr Goldfarb. Up in class after good 3d at 1 1/8th. Tired at 7 1/2 furlongs earlier in Dec, but maybe the recent stretch out gives him more in the lane. Comparable beyer figures and good tomlinson numbers. 6-1 morning line.

Will bet WP at odds of 4-1 or higher. The 3 and the 12 are the other horses I'd play in rolling exotics.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

El Kabong — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 11:33:17 GMT

Mary Zinke,

I'm with you on Notacatbutallama in the Jerome. Mudflats and Long River to complete the tri.

It's Manando's coming out party at SA. Very talented son of Bluegrass Cat that should get better with more distance. Although he is cutting back a bit here, I still think he will hit that gear in the lane to carry him past Goldencents.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Mary Zinke — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 04:50:40 GMT

San Pasqual: Ultimate Eagle, Coil, Tres Borrachos, John Scott. I think Hoorayforhollywood is in this to take out UE, but UE can beat him to the lead.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

KY VET — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 03:52:32 GMT

yes...i think mary zenkie got it right...goldencents...manando....look like only 2 in race....and yes i missed coldfacts posting of long river....might be hard to beat vijack....longriver will run well...san pasqual hella tough..cant fault eagle..cant fault much....except jacito is gonna run bad......alot of speed in there, cant help your eagle....

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

El Kabong — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 03:07:43 GMT

Jay Jay,

LOL!!!!

"You don't need to pop a vein on your forehead....."

Well said. :)

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Karen in Texas — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 02:25:03 GMT

Here's the Lane's End fee roster.

www.lanesend.com/.../roster-fees.html

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Karen in Texas — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 02:16:35 GMT

Chief---I'm not arguing which colt was more hyped. It's just that their respective stud fees aren't really a secret. I'll find a couple of links for you.

www.coolmore.com/.../uncle-mo

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

JayJay — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 02:12:50 GMT

Rusty : Forgot about Alpha, but yeah, Alpha didn't really show much during the preps, I'm still not sure how good Alpha is. I'm just wondering if there's something about this track that works well for some horses. I don't know what kind of track it is at all. I'm betting Amerigo purely on instinct that he'll like the added distance. I don't necessarily want Amerigo to tear it up during the preps, just want to see him progress and move forward in each race.

Coldfacts : I have no doubt WR would be on everyone's list if he were trained by either of those two but that's the beauty of finding the hidden gems. I like Amerigo because I think he'll do better going long, the end goal is the derby but finding the horses that will win the prep race is part of the fun. There's only one Derby winner and there's a whole lot of prep races. I'd like to find the blooming 3 yr olds that has value to win the prep races. Spotting the winner of the Derby this early is almost impossible. Take pride that you found WR first, he might turn out to be a really good one (or prepare for Ranag's wrath if he turns out to be a dud.) I'm tracking quite a few myself, mostly still maidens.

KY Vet : Now that you "proved" you're a professional handicapper... what now ? I asked you this before, do you need everyone to acknowledge you're a pro ? I mean, I don't get it why someone would spend all the energy and money to prove they're a pro... in a BLOG.

Also, can you promise you won't bet Den's Legacy ? You won't change your mind and dump thousands on him at the last minute ? Da' Tara won the Belmont in 2:29, UR in 2:30. UR wasn't a longshot.

Lastly, people talk about pedigree because at this time of the year, there's not enough races to see how good these colts are. While it's "boring" to you, I like reading peoples insights and opinions about them. You don't need to pop a vein on your forehead reading these comments, you can just ignore them.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 01:42:09 GMT

Coldfacts UKM was hyped more than UR but he was undefeated as a tyo and UR wasnt.UM was defintely better and Karen if they stand for the same price I am very surprised because Mo was a lot better.It could possibly be beacause of his health issues.Remember Mo had health issues but even with that he accomplised more than UR. Part of URs appeal was his trainer,but UR doesent come close to Matzs Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro.Thats my opinion and anyone can argue it but it wont change what I think.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Ranagulzion — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 01:35:39 GMT

I expect that a 3YO colt is going to wake up and show up in the Jerome ...he's a son of Hard Spun and a half brother to 2009 Whitney winner, Bullbay, called Vegas No Show. He is bred to stay and if he wins this he'll make everybody's top ten or Derby Dozen because he should be at a stage of rapid improvement. Draw a line through his Remsen no show.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Coldfacts — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 00:09:23 GMT

Based on Long River’s last performance it appears he has turned the corner. VyJack is fast and will have to be caught but I will gladly take 5-2 on Long River at his expense.

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 23:57:44 GMT

KY Whatever,

Not cheating, I was only pointing out that it does no good to post a few minutes before post time. How could anyone possibly get on bored with your expert picks with such a short notice? How do you find time to post 20 times per day?

The best bred distance horse in the Jerome is Long River. The problem is accepting the 5/2 morning line on an unproven horse.

What is your expert opinion of Ultimate Eagle in the San Pasqual on saturday?

And your expert opinion on Goldencents in the Sham?

re: Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20

Coldfacts — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 23:50:36 GMT

JayJay,

You are correct regarding the suspect level of competition Whiskey Romeo has faced. The same could have been said about Smarty Jones when he started. If he were either a Todd Pletcher or Speedy Bob colt he would be highly regarded. Despite the lack of competition there is something about this colt that appear to me. He is one of many on my list. His natural speed and the way he cover ground just reflects class. He could very well turn out to be a pretender when he faces quality opponents. I would be disappointed as I think I know a good horse when I see one. The Hutchinson will be his first serious class test.