Holy Bull Stakes

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:49:31 GMT

This blog is so old. Is it possible to get a new unlocking winners blog every week?

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 15:47:07 GMT

Again, Itsmyluckyday has already proven that he can win outside of Gulfstream Park. He won races at Monmouth and Calder on dirt. He also ran okay on turf, I have no concerns about him getting more distance. Zero 3 y/o colts will have 1 1/4 mile experience before the KY Derby.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Coldfacts — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 15:00:04 GMT

Mary Zinke,

“Did any of the Smarty Jones first three make your list?”

Interesting question! Are you aware that Will Take Charge and Texas Bling were both sired by stallions that are grandsons of the influential Fappiano i. e., Unbridled’s Song and Too Much Bling.

The fact that Will Take Charge is a half-brother of the 2012 Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy he should at least be an interesting colt. His sire Unbridled’s Song was sire of Derby runner up Eight Bells.

Texas Bling appears to be tough little guy that get no respect. After lighting up the board in the Remington Springboard Mile at 99-1 as a 2YO, he was sent from the gates in the Smarty Jones at 18-1. His dam was lightly raced and earned only $4200 from her 4 starts. She belongs to a category of mares that have an affinity with champions. His dam sire, the rarely seen Country Pine is son of His Majesty sire of Derby winner Pleasant Colony and dam sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star.

Any horse from the Mr. Prospector sire line that shows ability should not be ignored and are always dangerous in the Derby.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

El Kabong — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 02:44:21 GMT

Forbidden,

I will take it under advisement on itsmyluckyday, my big concern for him is his running style, and breeding for the distance. Horses do outrun that dilemma but I would be more convinced of that if he ran somewhere else which I am sure he will not. Still, his performance will count. I just don't like the scenarios that bring us to his attention. It screems of 9F and no more.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 19:31:56 GMT

El Kabong,

Verrazano just ran a 105 beyer, that had to be a taxing race early in the year. I am not a hater, I just don't fall in love with every Pletcher horse like Ranagulzion and some others on this blog. I don't know why, but I have a strong feeling that Itsmyluckyday is a quality animal. To so easily dismiss his chances in the future because of 2 good races would be foolish on my part. I like the way he pulled away at the end of the Holy Bull, he still has plenty of upside to him.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Mike Relva — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 04:18:29 GMT

El Kabong

Got news for you, if there's a "team hate Todd" he put himself there. Guess Life at Ten is a loyal fan. Right.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Coldfacts — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 01:53:14 GMT

Mary Zinke,

The coat of a horse has nothing to do with its ability. However, the majority of Storm Cat's best performers have been chestnuts and he is a bay. His dam was sired by Secretariat who was a chestnut. Could the Secretariat influence be the reason? Your guess it as good as mine.

Smart Strike is the sire of English Channel and Curlin who won the 2007 Breeders Cup Turf and Breeders Cup Classic. Both are chestnuts and this could be the reason for your friend conclusion.

While the coat of a horse has nothing to do with its ability, if I were in the market for Storm Cat or Giants Causeway horse, a chestnut would be my preference.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

JayJay — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 17:35:14 GMT

Pete : Is this blog still active ? or did you move the blog somewhere else ? :)

re: Holy Bull Stakes

JayJay — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 16:27:55 GMT

AQU Late .50 P4 ($12.00)

06 : 7

07 : 2,3,4

08 : 7,8

09 : 3,4,5,8

re: Holy Bull Stakes

El Kabong — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 00:37:49 GMT

Mike Relva,

Where did I say Shanghai Bobbly could get 10F's? You read into that one pal. He is not on my list of Horses who can win the Derby. I expect him to do well next out but I don't hold any hope for him or Itsmyluckyday to get 10F's, and by get I mean win or be close to the winner. You missed my whole point that if Itsmyluckyday was trained by Pletcher, team hate todd would be blasting him for using up his colt in the prep races with no regard for the Derby. A double standard that only applies to Mr. Pletcher. It's a tired old song with no basis in reality.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

ROBBIEJOE25 — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 23:55:33 GMT

Charlestown race 5: A GRUMPY LION, His mother Roberta grump has produced a runner or too and i dont think this will be any different. His brothers and sisters all had cheap West Virginia Sires while his daddy is Lion Hearted, dont know if it makes a difference but i am headed to the window, Runco has a nice homebred on the outside by readys image so we shall see.

Pete was on 5 of the 6 locksmith plays so close yet so far away..

Jay Jay I think the derby winner is running every week lol...

Coldfacts thanks for the info...

re: Holy Bull Stakes

JayJay — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 22:51:59 GMT

Pete : Looking forward to it...

Robert Lewis has 4 entries! Den's Legacy, HHE, Flashback and Little Jerry. What's up with that ? I'm not even thrilled at Den's Legacy in this race, Baffert said he'll be shipping him out of town after this race so he probably won't crank him up for this race at all. He's probably thinking Oaklawn all along for this horse.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 21:18:16 GMT

aqu race 9...unbeleivably hard, wide open race...ill go with #8 ice pilot wp.......7 to 1

re: Holy Bull Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:53:23 GMT

aqu 8th...3/5 wins...

re: Holy Bull Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:46:27 GMT

1/2 shots win sometimes.....you cant beat them all the time.....(see kaui katie)......aqu race 8..#2 zero yeild just beat #5traffic sister by almost 6 a month ago......#5 traffic sister wp. to turn tables

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Ranagulzion — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 19:51:39 GMT

KY Vet,

It seems that you're saying the Derby winner is still "incognito" ...well, you could be right in a year like this ...we'll see but I'm liking Itsmyluckyday more and more ...until I see Overanalyze make his 3YO debut.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 19:50:44 GMT

Freak of the week:

Friday @ Gulfstream Race 8

Midnight Watch

Stormy Atlantic-Trade Only-Unbridled

This filly can run, her works are fast. First timer that deserves a long look.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 19:17:42 GMT

COLDCUTS! what are you saying? YOU LIKE ITSMYLUCKYDAY? No you dont.....so why the post? you will do what you always do......knock the horses on top, then post 30 wacky horses with good breeding.....then when one of those 30 horses wakes up to run 3rd, youll post that you talked about him earlier than anyone on here........you will knock the top trainer in the game.....question why a horse that lost a mdn race in only start isnt in the top 20 of someones list........you are a contrarian

re: Holy Bull Stakes

THE KEYMASTER — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 17:13:58 GMT

The IL Derby now has a $750K purse and is run on 4/20/13. I hope the horses that run in the IL Derby end up the best in the crop and go on to trouce any horses that run in the KY Derby. Down with CD and the most overrated race on the planet, the KY Derby!

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Mary Zinke — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 16:11:21 GMT

Coldfacts, Thank you for your reply to my question about Winning Cause. I liked that he didn't rush up after his nose to the dirt stumble in the Jimmy Winkfield. Creative Cause was my favorite 3yo and Derby pick, so I'm not against Giant's Causeway as a Derby winner sire. I know you like Raise A Native line,statistically, though. Winning Cause is just one I'm watching, Coldfacts. No big favorite, yet. About the coat color, someone else told me to watch out for chestnut offspring of Smart Strike. How does coat color affect ability?

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Pete Denk — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 15:07:37 GMT

JayJAy-

New Derby rankings after this weekend.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Coldfacts — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 14:26:56 GMT

ROBBIEJOE25,

Kindly accept my apology for the late response.

I normally evaluate MSW races a couple days ahead. I review the entries to determine the horses that have made starts and then review their races to see how they performed irrespective of where they finished. I am always on the lookout for 3YOs that show ability and whose sires bred small books of mares. Oflee Wild the sire of Oflee Fast bred only 56 mares in 2009. In Oflee Fast debut race he was up with the leaders and then fell back. He then made mid race move and did not appear tired but rather green. His strides were not shortening but he just looked loss. When I got the Form and saw his trainer had at 40% win rate I though he was worth the gamble as he was the speed in the race.

Smooth Bert who will likely make his next start in the Withers was sired by Smooth Jazz who bred only 19 mares in 2009. His dam sire Devil His Due hails from the Hail To Reason sire line that has been a very successful broodmare line. He is the type of colt that I like to take chance on as he fits into one of my categories of interest.r

The likes of Big Brown, Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, Mine That Bird etc., were all products of stallion with very small books.

Do not waste your time advising the K Vet he is beyond redemption.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Coldfacts — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 13:46:07 GMT

The manner in which Revolutionary dismissed Transparent who subsequently had jaw dropping performance, suggest he should be an easy winner of the Withers. Revolutionary is from the high octane barn of Mr. Todd Pletcher and is likely to go MIA at any time. In reviewing his impressive maiden victory it was noticeable that he changed his lead several times while under rap by Mr. Dominguez. Is it greenness or soundness issues? Who knows!

The Darley pair of Long River and Valid hail from a stable that is rounding into form and their chances should not be discounted. Long River in particular will relish 1 1/6M of the Withers.

I will be paying keen attention to Smooth Bert as I think he is a colt that will be seriously under bet and will represent good value for money. He is May foal who is sneakily good. His sire only bred 19 mares in 2009 and I respect good horses from small books.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Coldfacts — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 04:02:29 GMT

KY Vet,

Listed below is a post I made on 4th Jan 2013 in response to your statement below.

“number of 3 yr olds fast enough to win the derby...........ZERO!!!!! Which means someone will improve ”

The above quote suggests that 3YOs need to run fast or attain certain Beyer/BRIS ratings to win the Derby. This is not the case. There are many factors that determine a Derby winner and speed is just one of them. Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Charismatic and many other long priced Derby winners did not run great times as 3YOs prior to the Derby.

Algorithms was probably the best 2012, 3YO on the east coast. He recorded a time of 1:36.17 in winning the Holy Bull. Give a second for track conditions and adjust his time to 1:35.17. Algorithm was undoubtedly a top Derby contender with his HB time and potential winner. Quality Road won the Fountain Of Youth in 1:35.01 and his time was considered fast enough to be a potential win the Derby.

Itmyluckuday recorded a time of 1:34.39 in the Gulfstream Park Derby. How can it be concluded that no 3YO has run fast enough to win the Derby with a comparison of the times recorded by Derby contenders Algorithms & Quality Road? When is 1:34.39 considered not fast enough to be a potential Derby winner? The average mile split the last 10 Derbies is 1:36 and a bit.

We are all entitled to formulate opinions but I do recommend that they be based on cold facts.

re: Holy Bull Stakes

Coldfacts — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 03:39:46 GMT

Mary Zinke.

This colt was not previously known to me. I watched his 2nd place finish in the Jimmy Winkfield after stumbling at the start. The first thing that struck me about him was his absolutely beautiful head. He had to be ridden to get into contention and consequently he did not show a lot of stride extension in the last furlong.

His pedigree screams turf but he could be a colt that can perform on multiple surfaces. I have noted that his sole victory was achieved on a synthetic track and he was unplaced on turf in what appeared to be his debut race.

His sire Giants Causeway is easily the most overbred stallion in the last 9 years. Stallions that are bred to 150-200 mares each season have never been associated with a Derby winner. That said Creative Cause finished 5th in the 2013 Derby. If there is a major positive associated with Winning Cause it is the fact he is a chestnut. Interestingly, the chestnuts sired by Giants Cause have been by far his best performers. Fountain Of Youth/ Wood winner Eskendereya was probably of his best dirt runner. Giant Oak who won the Clarke & Don and Red Giant who Set NWR of 1:57.16 for 1-1/4 miles on turf in Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita are chestnuts as well.

His dam sire Kingmambo is primarily a turf sire. However, he was the sire of Belmont Lemon Drop Kid.

Winning Cause appears to be a nice colt with a stellar turf pedigree that loaded with stamina. Of his sire’s five Derby starters none have hit the board. If dirt is his preferred surface he should have a very long shot to win the Derby.