Denk's Derby Index

re: Denk's Derby Index

Coldfacts — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 15:28:07 GMT

JayJay,

“I don't care if he went 1:50 in his last race”

Oxbow recorded a time of 1:43.30 for the distance en route to an 11 1/2L victory. He was beaten comfortably by Violence in the Cash Call in a time of 1:43.50 on a much faster surface.

Proud Strike was under the whip in deep stretch to break his maiden in 1:46.18 and you are considering him to be competitive in Risen Star against a colt that is running 3 seconds faster. I am aware it’s a horse race and massive upset can be recorded. Who can forget the 99-1 winner Hero Of Order in the 2012 LA Derby?

The winning time for the 2012 Risen Star was 1:42.96. This time is 3 seconds faster than Proud Strike’s 1:46. Golden Soul won a 1 1/6M race at the FG and he got beat by Oxbow by 11L. The slowest winning time for the stakes is 1:45.11 recoded by the19th place finished in the Derby Friesan Fire.

You are very brave! However, go for it as anything can happen as he is from the powerful Mr. Prospector sire line.

NB: Pulpit with Lord At War (Arg) mares: 8 fls, 8 strs (100%), 6 wnrs (75%), 2 SWs (25%).

re: Denk's Derby Index

JerseyBoy — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 14:02:11 GMT

It is always amusing to read opinions about which horse cannot win the Kentucky Derby. The amusement is higher when reasons are given for the conclusion.

After the race is run most people can then say-I told you so. Why? Because even if each horse gives his lifetime best, when the race is over there will be 1 winner and 19 losers.

So I will give my reason why horse X will not win the Kentucky derby. It is because a horse will finish ahead of him.

Who will win? This takes courage. My current choice is Itsmyluckyday. Why? Because he is an improving horse who has run faster than the rest to date. I have already put my money on him.

re: Denk's Derby Index

KY VET — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 03:30:52 GMT

PETE...........exactly right....how i got 10 to 1 after that juv.performance, i'll never know..........horses like itsmyluckyday just dont win.....some might ask "how about verrazzano or Flashback?" why not throw them out? Well, they were good from the beginning....itsmyluckyday and oxbow, improved alot..........HUGE DIFFERENCE......those big impr. races DO things to horses...........Thats why its a huge mistake having him #1........he ran better than any horse yes, but NO CHANCE!!!!

re: Denk's Derby Index

JayJay — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 02:34:05 GMT

Coldfacts : Yes, what Steve Haskin posted about this colt which I'm assuming you already saw. He's interesting to me in this race, none are proven so i'm looking at Proud Strike as possible value play. I never ever use split times to handicap a horse, I don't care if he went 1:50 in his last race, this is a new race, and horses improves (or not) but I'm most likely going to gamble on him. So when I say interesting, it always mean I'm looking at the horse to be in my bets. It doesn't mean I'm looking at him to become a monster from here on forward, just that for this race, he's interesting. He may not even survive this race if he's not that good and never see him run again but on the flipside, he could be one to watch as Haskin pointed out.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Pete Denk — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 02:21:01 GMT

New blog is up for the weekend.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Pete Denk — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 02:20:38 GMT

And Street Sense, the horse that broke the Juvenile curse, was a special case.

His Juvenile win was smoking fast, actually fast enough to win the Derby from a speed figure standpoint.

That means he didn't have to take any major forward steps at 3. Trainer Carl Nafzger, a master at getting horses to peak at the right time, knew this.

Nafzger designed a campaign that allowed Street Sense to move forward mentally while peaking again physically on Derby day.

This messed-up Derby points system will probably lead to more than a few horses peaking in their final prep instead of Derby day, as trainers feel the pressure to qualify.

As important as the these early big performances are, the next start is just as important because it tells you if the horse has the fortitude for the Triple Crown.

re: Denk's Derby Index

KY VET — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 02:10:14 GMT

YES.....ive won more money in the kentucky derby, than any other race.....ive always had a good eye for talent......but, it takes more than talent........every year, there is a really good early fav. for the derby...every year! But how many 2yr old champions have won in the last 20 yrs? one? two?.....why is this? You breeding people always think its the distance thing.....the reason is, racing super sharp, for that long, is very, very, rare........horses just cant stay sharp that long! When will you learn? The biggest payoff ive had, on the early wager,was 500 w on champ street sense....why did i bet him? He ran much the best in the juv..yes...but i knew the trainer....he gave him only 2 preps...that were just avg. races...thats the key! YOU CANNOT BE ON TOP OF YOUR GAME IN JAN>!!! Which leads us to the HUGE MISTAKE people are making.....ITSMYLUCKYDAY....AND OXBOW.....are two examples.........THEY HAVE NO CHANCE! NONE!........they got too good too fast.........go back, and name the derby winners, that improved and fired such big improvements in jan. ...and won the derby!........keep lookin......last year was close.....ill have another was sharp, but really not too sharp....the beauty was the long layoff by the trainer........absolutely. great, smart training job.......once a horse is sharp,like itsmyluckyday, he has to run 2 maybe 3 more great races....too many to pull off! ASK YOURSELF...why no triple crown winners! SAme reason.....its too hard to stay sharp that long......RANAG! you like both itsmyluckyday, and OXBOW!!!!!OMG!......RETHINK!!!!! Everybody!!!!!!!!!!

re: Denk's Derby Index

Little Bill — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 21:58:37 GMT

Proud Strike- The breeding is the most interesting part. 1:46 is a concern. All the times out of FG are slow. Granted it's not a strong venue, but.....

re: Denk's Derby Index

Coldfacts — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 17:12:43 GMT

JayJay,

“Proud Strike is interesting “

Proud Strike PP:

10/28/2012 - CD, 7F (TIME: 1:23.84 TRACK: Fast); Finished 3rd beaten 19L.

11/24/2012 – CD 1 1/6F (TIME: 1:44.56 TRACK: Fast) Finished 2nd beaten 31/4L

01/12/2013 – FG 1 1/6F (TIME: 1:46.18 TRACK: Fast) won by 71/2L

What exactly is interesting about this s colt? Curlin, Luckin At Lucky and Papa Clem are Smart Strike colts that showed class and none got beat by 19L in any race. I know Mr. Haskin highlighted him but he just does not seem fast enough for interest. He was under the whip in deep stretch to break his maiden in a pedestrian time.

Are you anticipating major improvements? What am I missing about this colt?

re: Denk's Derby Index

derbygal — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 16:08:31 GMT

Fortify finishes 6th in the UAE 2000 Guineas.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Little Bill — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 06:53:05 GMT

I have also seen Phil's Info. and to comment on it's worth is, well, that's just an opinion. His system will allow the user to uncover horses that have good value. I think thats been proven. I think it could help exotic players the most. I don't need someone to tell me a 2,3,4,5-1 looks like he could win. I can see that.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Little Bill — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 06:13:52 GMT

That must have been the halftime show. Not bad.

re: Denk's Derby Index

JayJay — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 06:07:43 GMT

Footlick : Please go through the last 2 blogs and count how many times Phil has posted and how many times I have posted. Also, while you're at it, please also read how many times Phil has "educated" people regarding their comments...then come back to me about harassment and being mature. You're so blinded by your admiration that you refuse to see his posts about him being mystified or surprised or amazed as to people's way of handicapping and always tries to interject how his tool is much more superior. He brushes aside people's responses as if it didn't merit any response because it goes against his flow system. You refuse to see that...

I'm not obsessed with him as much as you are obsessed with me posting to him. He chose to use this blogsite to sell his product, he posts his opinions here and unless Pete says otherwise, everyone is welcome to comment on his post, heck, he comments on pretty much everyone's post but again, you don't see that... (see his last "convo" with JerseyBoy)

Thank you for your last post. Unfortunately, I can't promise this will be my last post to you. I'm sure you'll have some interesting posts in the future besides cheerleading for Phil. You also forgot that I was the only one that paid attention to Phil when he first started posting his racing flow marketing here...I decided after going through his site and talking to him more about it that it wasn't worth a penny. I never claimed to be an expert on anything, I enjoy reading people's posts here and yes, that includes yours (well, not the cheerleading ones.)

re: Denk's Derby Index

derbygal — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 06:06:46 GMT

O’Neill starts Mudflats in Sunday’s $150,000 San Vicente Stakes for 3-year-olds over seven furlongs. As of Wednesday, the projected field of six consists entirely of maiden race winners seeking their first stakes wins.

Mudflats, seventh in the Grade 2 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 5, will make his first start in California in the Grade 2 San Vicente. A gelding by Tapit, Mudflats won a seven-furlong maiden race at Aqueduct in his third career start.

Trainer Bob Baffert will have three runners – Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy. Belvin and War Academy have not started in stakes. Shakin It Up was third of five in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue Stakes in November.

The field also includes the speedy Caballo del Cielo and the highly regarded maiden race winner Treasury Bill. Wednesday at Betfair Hollywood Park, Treasury Bill worked a half-mile in 49.20 seconds.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Footlick — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 05:35:56 GMT

JayJay- If Pete chooses to post this you will read it. If he chooses not to post this, then that is his decision. Your harassment of Phil is obsessive. That you have no comprehension is incredibly evident. That you inevitably have to say something negative about anything he posts is sad. The fact that you can't even take him up on his offer to e-mail him somewhere other than here so that it doesn't take up Pete's blog is impolite. When you're mature enough to realize that, then maybe you will move on and concentrate on what you do and not worry about what he does. I don't agree with harassment. If that makes me a cheerleader than so be it. I have also stood up for Coldfacts. When you realize that you have no interest in what Phil does, just an interest in being negative about everything he posts, then maybe you will stop. But I doubt it. I'm sure you will have another full-of-yourself response for me. This will be my last to you.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Little Bill — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 04:55:10 GMT

I like Proud Strike also but, Gary Stevens doesn't help the price. I'll be pulling for Code West as I played him in book one.

re: Denk's Derby Index

JayJay — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 04:29:25 GMT

Karen in Texas : I'm excited about the Risen Star as well, not so excited that Rosie went with Palace Malice instead of Mylute but they're both my horses and will play both on top of all my bets. I hope Miguel Mena or James Graham rides Mylute.

Proud Strike is interesting - Steve Haskin got me to look at this horse, will probably run at a nice price too. I get a sense you'll probably play him.

predict : Forgot to post my reply to your link, I read it and yeah, that does sound suspicious lol. Now you'll make me watch his non-stakes races closer...thanks!

re: Denk's Derby Index

JayJay — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 04:02:05 GMT

PBP : The question remains... for all the comments you post on here questioning peoples angles of handicapping, whether it be the track, the jockey, the trainer etc. Your tool isn't any better than how people pick their horses and you need to accept that fact. Flow is no different than say, beyer figures, except more people trust beyer as it's been used for a long time. I'm not a fan of either beyer or the flow tool. I see your cheerleader has come online to help you.

You're great at ignoring question that you have no answer to, that's why you want me to email you personally. What is RacingFlow's win/loss record this year ? It's a simple question, similar to what you nag Pete about with his smart plays.

re: Denk's Derby Index

KY VET — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 03:55:11 GMT

wow.....worst day in long time.......i agree with predict....this game is fixed!!!!lol.......

re: Denk's Derby Index

Karen in Texas — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 23:28:52 GMT

derbygal,

I agree the Risen Star is shaping up to be a most interesting race; can't wait to see Rosie on Palace Malice and Gary Stevens on Proud Strike!

re: Denk's Derby Index

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 20:48:01 GMT

GP 7th -

Now that's what we call a ZipFest....

re: Denk's Derby Index

derbygal — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 20:21:31 GMT

The Hernandez brothers, Brian Jr. and Colby, will have the mounts on Departing and Sunbean, respectively, when part of what is shaping up as a terrific field for the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star, with one of the Todd Pletcher arsenal, Palace Malice, being another notable. Other known prospects at this early juncture include Code West, Golden Soul, Mylute, Oxbow, Proud Strike, and maybe Normandy Invasion.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 20:08:21 GMT

KY VET -

Perhaps they scratched for a better spot in 2014

re: Denk's Derby Index

Pete Denk — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 20:05:21 GMT

Santa Anita

Race 1 3:30 ET

Maiden Cal-breds (One mile turf)

9 Waitwaitdonttellme (5-2 ML odds) flashed some nice ability finishing third at this level on January 6 in his turf debut and second career start. He’s got a nice turn of foot and is on the improve. He came home in :23-flat last time, and the presence of stretch-out speed ( 1 and 10) should produce some pace for him to run at.

Odds: 1.70

Result: Checked back and in traffic, could only rally wide for 6th. Underlay in retrospect but I do think this one will clear the condition.

re: Denk's Derby Index

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 20:02:20 GMT

Thanks Pete.

- We had just Hard Not to Like in common. I will not temper my read as Channel Lady benefitted from a very Speed favoring Flow. The 2nd thru 5th place finishers deserve extra credit when next seen.

- The Park City race came back modestly closer favoring.

- The Sprint and Donn came back fair for all from our perspective.