Derby preps get serious

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 14:59:59 GMT

cuba"s ccdrace I only made one bet in pool 2 so far because I only think 3 are in so far.Isan,Orb,and Vyjack and the odds are too low as they are for other betting interests in the 24 colt field which of course includes all others.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 14:57:53 GMT

cuba's ccdrace who knows how the track will play the day of the Louisiana Derby.I know FG plays as a very speed favoring surface,which it wasnt on the day of the Risen Star.I think you know this, but in most races the entrants are so close in ability that the circumstances at the time of the race and during the race determine the winner.You have to be proactive in your selection process, and not think the race will go by the script,which in the case of thoroughbred racing in the US are the past performances.

re: Derby preps get serious

cuba"s classic chef de race — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 03:49:37 GMT

Who are the favorites to wheel now in exactas flashback?,Verrazano? men i do need more time to think.

re: Derby preps get serious

cuba"s classic chef de race — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 03:49:34 GMT

Who are the favorites to wheel now in exactas flashback?,Verrazano? men i do need more time to think.

re: Derby preps get serious

cuba"s classic chef de race — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 03:07:48 GMT

Chief Picawinna, if Palace Malice after been beaten by a horse who paid $272.00 and a Baffert maiden in the slow Risen Star and need to win or finish 2d at lousiana Derby win the roses he and pletcher surely can be invited to the Royal Palace to meet the Queen but that is going to be a long fliegh.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 22:38:53 GMT

The Tampa Bay Derby has a good field.The majority of the colts 5 out od 9 have won or placed in stakes races,and that DOES NOT include likely less than even money favorite Verrazano.The San Felipe is pretty solid as well.

This weeks fifty pointer prep races are a lot better than the fields assembled for the FOY,Gotham and Risen Star which were also 50 pointers.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 14:18:25 GMT

My bad just checked it the Derby exacta paid 306 for the 2 dollar wager with the favorite in 2nd and a 15-1 shot in 1st.All you had to do was take the favorite and wheel him in 1st and 2nd to hit the exacta,thats not what I bet but field size makes the Derby the BEST vertical exotic betting opportunity in the US yearly,if its not the top its in the top three.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 14:04:56 GMT

I played an exacta box in last years Derby and collected on the exacta of Bode and IHA.It payed more than the exacta of this years Gotham and I mean for a dollar wager.A 20 horse field with all the possible combinations makes exotics a lot more lucrative.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 13:54:32 GMT

Predict my point was that 30-1 in a regular Saturday race with an 11 horse field is a lot different than a 30-1 shot in the Derby with a 20 horse field.

I tend to structure my tri and super bets conventionally in the Derby with the lower priced shots on top,but an exacta bet in a 10 or 11 horse field is very different.To hit one that pays +200 you had to take the 30-1.BTW I noticed you also picked the favorite and another long shot in your 4 number box.So your box consisted of the 2 morning line favorites with two long shots.

re: Derby preps get serious

predict — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:39:19 GMT

Chief P,

Yes I do realize that 30-1 is not an easy pick to make, but I try to pick who I like regardless of what the rest of the public may think. Especially in the Derby, where all odds are somewhat the result of past performances that were in most cases not the distance of ground of the Derby. So there is alot of guessing as to who is capable and who is not, which can account for some surprises in the finish. I also always, without calling myself a trip handicapper, try to look at who is in the race and how they will try to run, and how that running will affect the outcome of the race. The best example I can give of this approach, and the unexpected results it can deliver, at least by most of the betting public, was the 2002 Belmont when I picked the longshot Sarava. When I looked at the past performances of that race I realized there was really only one horse that I felt could make up ground on War Emblem late, and that was Sarava. So regardless of the fact that the public had disregarded him to what I think was about 70-1 status, I hammered him at the window. Of course War Emblem stumbled in the start but I was still glad to see the crowd of horses that hit the first turn, this told me I might be right and would have a chance with Sarava. Well, when Sarava won and I was one of a very few that was jumping up and down in excitement, I realized you can't just dismiss a horse because the rest of the public has done just that. I don't know if this answers your questions as how a 30-1 horse can be picked, but remember the favorite only wins about 30% of the time, so the bettors are far from always right. Look for opportunities and don't be afraid if the public doesn't agree. In this year's Derby, we of course don't know who is going to be in the race, but I'm expecting there will be some that are very capable of producing some very fast early fractions. I will be looking for someone to make the starting gate like My Name is Michael. If he is in there he will be capable of finishing and making the board, but if I may project a little into the future, he will not be one of the low odds favorites, if this happens believe me, I will be all over him.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 15:31:09 GMT

Predict to clarify there were at least 5 betting interests in the 2012 Derby with odds of 30-1 to 40-1.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 14:32:06 GMT

Racing on a hard dirt surface is condusive for the commercial breeders to breed for speed.The maladies that have plagued the thoroughbred in the US for decades is more complex than one issue,it is a combination of factors.It will also take some years to resolve at least some changes are being made such as the new point system, and the Salix rule changes.If everything were to stay the same do you think it all would magically change for the better by itself,I dont.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 14:26:24 GMT

Predict 30-1 is a good price for the regular Saturday races,do you realize in the last Derby there were I think it was 5 betting interests at 30-1 or more and at least one came in at the bottom of the super.

re: Derby preps get serious

predict — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 15:54:25 GMT

Chief P,

Thanks for the acknowledgment, I wasn't sure he'd go for the lead, but hoped with his performance in the Java Gold he would and with that outside post thought that would be his best move, he has shown to be a game horse, just a tad short of very good ability. Only regrets I had was I initially liked Elnaawi more than Ore Pass, and I'm still kicking myself for getting off that one. But, it was a nice exacta.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 13:21:09 GMT

Predict great pick putting West Hills Giant and Vyjack at the top of your Gotham list yesterday.

A question did you visualize him breaking sharply and making the lead yesterday.

I will be honest that is the kind of trip I visualized for Elnaawi,although my image wasnt clear because I thought there were others that would vy for the lead or be close like Vyjack and Overanalyze etc.Its a 3yo race and sometimes just getting out in the 1st group means hitting the board as most of these colts dont know how to rate properly and run from behind to win.Vyjack ran very well considering where he was at the start of the race.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 12:57:50 GMT

Overanalyze by the way he ran yesterday is another example of a 3yo who was overtrained and overraced as a 2yo.Human children that are pushed too much too soon by their parents to achieve when they are not ready for all of that is an analogy that will be hard to understand for some because it is not directly related.He will need time to get back into the flow of racing after living a relatively sedate lifestyle being laid-off.

I think he has already reached his peak performance at the age of 2 and it is possible that he could win a prep race on the Derby trail because he does have ability,but I dont believe he can win the Derby.

Violence was lightly raced as a 2yo eventhough out of his 3 races as a 2yo one was a grade 2 and one a grade 1,for a Pletcher trainee. Pletcher seems to get a quick return on investment for the owners he works for and the expensive colts and fillies they buy.

Everyone has to realize this game has A LOT more money involved for all those in it,and the decisions they make involving the horses they own have monetary implications.

re: Derby preps get serious

Mike Relva — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 05:44:52 GMT

Ranagulzion

When are you ever going to learn regarding Pletcher? Told you the week before Violence got injured all Pletcher does is ruin horses. That's why he has only one Derby. Unlike some on this blog(whom will remain nameless) I don't have a problem saying my knowledge is limited regarding racing. Perhaps I would have time to sharpen my skills if I didn't devote much of my time for retired race horses. One thing I know if Violence really was damaged goods as one reader indicates,he sure as hell shouldn't been racing.

re: Derby preps get serious

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 18:10:16 GMT

Historians and Horseplayers if MacLaughlin has a Derby hope his name is Elnaawi,otherwise Darley and Shadwell will be paying noimination fees on the Derby trail, which could be used to fill the feed tub of the head that prefer to eat seconds.Those other names listed on this blog are for subterfuge by those with forked tongues.

re: Derby preps get serious

predict — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 17:28:17 GMT

3/2/13-Aqueduct, R-10, Gotham Stakes:

11-West Hills Giant

7-Vyjack

4-Ore Pass

12-Overanalyze

Look out for the NY bred today

re: Derby preps get serious

Coldfacts — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 15:29:35 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

“Why are you going with Now and Then? He is trained by McLaughlin who you have recently been against for some reason.”

Transparent: The first time I saw this colt in action I immediately observed that he needed blinkers. His trainer did not used the head gear until his 4th start.

Long River: Finished on the board in his last three starts prior to the Withers. Lasix administered and he finished last. In fact the two McLaughlin colts occupied the last two positions. They were beaten by a maiden making his 2nd start.

Ingonito: This colt has been begging for 9F and he is continually entered in races at a shorter distance. Mr. McLaughlin has stable at Gulfstream Park. There have been several 9F maiden races contested at GP.

Elmutahid: This colt has good tactical speed but does not finish his races strongly. He is fitted with blinker that will only encourage more speed that he already has. Speedy stamina deficient horses tend to stay on longer without blinkers. Lasix administered for last and he finished last.

Now and Then: This is a nice colt that even Mr. McLaughlin deficient management program will not inhibit.

There are other examples.

The sure sign of a trainer gone wild is blinkers on the majority of his horses. Mr. Lukas would find a set of blinker to fit a fly.

re: Derby preps get serious

Coldfacts — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 15:09:05 GMT

Thanks, he is a useful little horse that I thought had been retired. My namesake Mr. Palmer won recently and I will certainly place a few bucks on my nom de plume.

re: Derby preps get serious

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 14:11:33 GMT

Gulfstream March 2:

Race 9- With Sugar On Top #4

I love the breeding and the tactical speed of this filly, she also loves to train. With a slight improvement she can earn her first graded stakes victory.

Race 10- Forty Tales #10

He was flying last out and just missed. With a smarter ride he will win at a short price to complete a 4/10 double with With Sugar On Top.

Santa Anita March 2:

Race 6- Beholder #5

She ran a tough race last out and will return to the winner's circle today. The play is a double with You Know I Know #2 and Insideondoutside #8.

Race 9- Suggestive Boy #3

He ran a hole in the wind last out, expecting the same trip today for the win. Exactas with Silentio #1 and Mr. Commons #8. Also a large double with Ron the Greek #1.

Race 10- Ron the Greek #1

I'm expecting him to stalk Game On Dude and take over at the top of the stretch. His Sunshine Millions win was huge, the added distance today only helps. Straight exactas over Stephanoatsee #8 and Game On Dude #9.

Cold Facts,

Take a look at Oaklawn Race 5 today, the horse is #6 Cold Facts. First time out since June, he has a sharp workout listed.

re: Derby preps get serious

THE KEYMASTER — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 06:24:23 GMT

108+

All I remembered about Always a Princess was that she beat Blind Luck in short fields at SA while alone on the lead. I looked her up and see she was trained by Baffert, who has far from a perfect medication violation record, and the only grades stakes she won were 3 G2s against 4, 5, and 6 horse fields.

However, the only point I was trying to make is that the breed and the sport have not changed for the better, and many of the traditionally important standards and trends in the past will continue to be bucked, as we have seen in recent years.

I would much rather have a horse with a turf influenced pedigree that is proven at 10f than a dirt influenced pedigree that is a stretch to even get 9f, like most of the pedigrees we see in our dirt horses in the US today.

I would not at all be surprised if we saw more horses with turf influenced pedigrees continue to do well in the triple crown races simply because they still have some stamina left in those bloodlines.

re: Derby preps get serious

KY VET — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 03:13:55 GMT

Coldcuts....i have you down for revolutionary.....no early bet?.....He has a chance....

re: Derby preps get serious

1:08 and change — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 23:19:40 GMT

Key:

First of all I guarantee MTR has covered way more mares especially in the US and has at least three more years of breeding.

Leroy: Always a Princess comes to mind.

Boundary: Come on, Dutrow and IEAH. Do you really want to go there?