Fla, LA Derby picks

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 17:21:29 GMT

For those willing to learn something, the proper analysis of a horse's overall development in terms of 'new tops' is as I posted above. Measuring improvement and the potential impact of that improvement relative to an off race or an 'X' is just incorrect.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 16:43:10 GMT

Plod,

Either way one looks at it, Will Take Charge went from a poor race to his best race ever. I would not bet this horse if I found a loose Ben Franklin on the ground.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 16:04:58 GMT

Mary,

People write the news and then other's read the news. What is so wrong about discussing recent news? Not everything in this world is blue skies and rainbows.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 16:02:57 GMT

Coldfacts,

I am guessing that you were in hibernation last summer when team Mclaughlin was winning many high quality races. Again, every horse can not be a champion, no matter how much money was spent or wasted when purchasing the horse. With the so called powerful trainer Todd Pletcher, he is expected to win these prep races in bunches. With all of his quality horse stock, he has only two serious 3 year old colts in my opinion. They are Revolutionary and Verrazano. He was shut out of any stakes wins for 3 year old colts at the Gulfstream meet. So should his owners give up on him too? Did you forget that Darley won an eclipse for being an owner of high quality horses? Did you also forget that Questing was the 3 year old filly champion of 2012?

Who was your trainer last year, McPeek?

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Mike Relva — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 03:35:22 GMT

Forbidden Apple

Good point regarding your comment on Baffert. He's not on my hit parade. Bob is all about Bob,period.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 23:49:32 GMT

Rusty -

The last race of the Oaklawn meet is 'always' a dirt marathon. Race caller Frank Miramani will take the opportunity to do impressions of a handful of famous race callers and personalities over the 14 furlongs.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 23:44:37 GMT

Rusty -

The slop debacle was more likely a reaction to the new top he fired in the Smarty Jones. Note he recorded that figure while very wide, which, in theory make it even bigger. For the most part, horses ability to run on slopy tracks is more a reflection of the current condition than it is a dislike for slop. Sitting on a peak as he ws going into the SJ, I'm of the opinion that had that track been sloppy, he'd have handled it fine. Slop gives horses that aare not feeling great a reason to 'chuck it'.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 23:38:50 GMT

Forbidden -

New 'tops' should be in reference to previous bests, not the most recent race. The 24 pt effort you mention regarding WTC is actually just 8 Beyer pts or roughly 3.5 lengths above his previous best of 87. While it may still be cause for a set-back, it's a far cry from a 24 pt new top.

Rusty - The 7 weeks leading up to the Derby for WTC puts him well with a reasonable recover time. Running him again will do far more damage than keeping him fit without squeezing the lemon.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 20:03:20 GMT

1:08 and change,

There's a funny race carded for the 12th and last race at Oaklawn, which closes out the 50-cent Pick 3 & Pick 4. It's a StAlw at 1 3/4 mile (!), and there is a very heavy favorite who has romped in two straight StAlw routes. It makes me want to hit the ALL button, as I caught that 41-1 shot in the BC Marathon two years ago. I'm curious what you think of this one.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 18:42:28 GMT

I'm going to play Dynamic Sky in the Bluegrass in $4 boxed exactas with Uncaptured and Java's War, a $2 box with longest-shot Tesseron, and $1 boxes of Tesseron with the two favorites. $24.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Mary Zinke — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 18:10:47 GMT

My comment to 1:08 about none of the horses running with Salix in Dubai didn't go through. Maybe that's best, as that subject so upsets the complacent ones. Seems that the plane ride to he U.S. is so hazardous that most returning or visiting here must be administered the drug for their next U.S. race. If you were an owner, would you give up that edge? Who goes first?

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Mary Zinke — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 17:48:23 GMT

FA, I notice that you are concerned about who talks about which subjects. Okay, I don't care about Team Valor hiring a new trainer and I recuse myself from commenting about the heart failure of that Cali trainer's horses. I'm sure you're not the only one who notices the news. If you want to be first to mention, go for it.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Coldfacts — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 17:04:20 GMT

1:08 and change,

“He was thinking he wants to WIN THE RACE”

I am sure he had similar thoughts regarding Delhomme. He is clearly not familiar with one bitter twice shy!

“Palace Malice will run circles around the soon to be footbridgejumper.”

Against my better judgment I have repeatedly tried to engage you. However you are making it very difficult.

Palace Malice record reads: 5 Starts, 1-2-1. Footbridge record reads: 4 Starts 1-2-1. Up to their 4th races, they had identical records. Palace Malice has contested two G2 races while Footbridge will be making his graded debut in a G1.

Palace malice was defeated by a 99-1 horse. No horse with odds longer than 5-1 has ever beaten Footbridge. When a 99-1 shot beats you with a trouble free trip, it does not say much about your ability

“Man, that short rest really hurt EMOLLIENT over the weekend”

Mr. Mott is not on record as being comfortable with 28 days between races and does not run a high octane conditioning program. How many suspensions have been levied on him?

“PM never even ran in the stretch last out. He was bottled up the last 1/4 mile”

The really good ones put themselves in a position to win. His stalemate got an unfavorable draw and won.

“And enough of the Lasix excuse.”

Does Mr. Pleather run his horse without it? Was he reluctant to send S/Bobby to the BCJ because the drug was disallowed?

Lasix enhances performance. I gave Bashaar as an example. He was dull and unimpressive until the Lasix was added to his diet. He won his last race by 10L

“How did Animal Kingdom run the best race of his life off of LASIX”

The rest of the field was not on the drug as well. Transparent recorded a time of 1:35 for a mile without the drug. Horse can perform without it. However, those that use it have an advantage. No excuse, just fact.

You need to grow up and start expressing yourself like a coherence and intelligent individual.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

1:08 and change — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 16:29:59 GMT

All,

Will be posting KEE and OAK cards Friday or Sat morn. Two horses each race.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

1:08 and change — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 16:24:11 GMT

Coldcuts:

How did Animal Kingdom run the best race of his life off of LASIX????????????????????

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:58:36 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

Thanks for the recommendations. I already hated War Academy; my comments on other thread.

I didn't like WTC and like him less off six weeks rest, especially from a trainer for whom this is not the usual, or originally intended, approach. I think Oxbow is a potential longshot in the Derby. I like him best in the Arkansas Derby, but am also looking at 10-1 Falling Sky if I think there's a chance the track is more fair than in the Rebel.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

1:08 and change — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:56:23 GMT

Coldcuts:

He was thinking he wants to WIN THE RACE!...Palace Malice will run circles around the soon to be footbridgejumper. Man, that short rest really hurt EMOLLIENT over the weekend. PM never even ran in the stretch last out. He was bottled up the last 1/4 mile.

And enough of the lasix excuse. Get off it. I guess FRANKEL would have had like a 160 Timeform Rating if he'd been on lasix.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

derbygal — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:51:40 GMT

Some readings from a trainer and a owner about points system.

Gary Contessa, joking that he’s “not a mathematician,” did allow that “every trainer does some scoreboard-watching.” He said he’s “becoming more familiar” with the new points system, and likes it compared to the old system – which utilized graded stakes earnings – especially with the emphasis on races in the spring of the 3-year-old year, and a reduction in value for 2-year-old races.“I like what it’s done with the preps. There are big fields for every one of these races,” Contessa said. “It looks like it’s accomplishing what it set out to accomplish.”

James Covello,co-owner of Falling Sky,Covello is a mathematician. He said he likes the new system “a lot.”

“Even if it keeps me out,” Covello said.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Coldfacts — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 14:31:28 GMT

Mr. Gomez is either very brave or very stupid. He secured the ride on the Todd Pletcher trained Dellhomme in the Rebel Stakes. The colt had to be eased and walked in just ahead of the medical emergency vehicle.

The Life AT Ten/Quality Road performance was reenacted yet again.

Mr. Pletcher is on record stating that he is comfortable with four weeks between races. When Place Malice takes his position in the starting gates on Saturday, the 14 days between races will be the shortest period between races in his career. Obviously this period is outside the comfort zone of his trainer.

Mr. Gomez has chosen to take the ride on Place Malice who is returning from a short recovery and who will be contesting a race on a surface over which he is unproven.

Mr. Gomez is the regular rider for Footbridge who like Palace Malice has only a maiden victory to his credit. However, he enters the Bluegrass off a victory, at full rest and with proven synthetic surface pedigree.

Delhomme contested the Rebel off a very long rest but on a familiar surface. He finished last. Palace Malice will be returning from short rest to contest a race on an unfamiliar surface. Add the fact that his trainer does not have a stellar record with short rest horses, it is quite likely that Delhomme will be joined by Place Malice just ahead of the medical emergency vehicle.

What was Mr. Gomez thinking?

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Coldfacts — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 13:04:24 GMT

Forbidden Apple

“I believe he is part donkey.”

The above is a very harsh assessment of Transparent. He finished 4 1/2L behind Orb when he broke his maiden. He was only beaten 6L in the Gotham.

He returned in an allowance race and recorded a time of 1:35 ridden from off the pace. He does not run on Lasix and this could be the reason for some of his bad beats.

He is still young and has shown enough to indicate he is a very good colt. That fact that he cannot put together consecutive good performances is a reflection of his trainer. Every time he takes one step forward he takes one backward. There is no obvious forward progression. This is unusual for young horses.

The horses from Mr. McLaughlin barn are some of the most inconsistent around. In some racing jurisdictions he would be cited for in and out running.

Darley needs to get rid of him.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 10:20:00 GMT

Why is it so difficult for NYRA to show the gallop out of all races? I just watched the replay of the Wood several times. I want to see the horses after the wire, this is not hard to accomplish. It looked like Normandy Invasion was long gone after the wire.

And when will NYRA offer a high definition feed? It's 2013, time to spend some of the Casino money on improving the product.

No comments on the sudden death article, hard to believe. It has been reported that 7/11 (64%) heart failure fatalities in CA were from the Bob Baffert barn.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 09:39:35 GMT

Coldfacts,

Sorry, but I don't care about Transparent anymore. He has a good trainer. Why can't you accept that this horse is a high priced allowance horse? Darley pays tons of cash for average horses, they all can not be champions. I believe he is part donkey.

Rusty,

How do you think Will Take Charge is feeling after running his last race 24 beyer points higher than his previous race? I'm not sold on Oxbow or Will Take Charge as serious KY Derby threats.

War Academy at 2-1, why? This is a terrible favorite, stay away.

No mention of the falling out between Irwin and Motion from all of you Animal Kingdom groupies. It was not enough for this trainer to win the kY Derby and the Dubai World Cup. Irwin is greedy in my opinion and always wants more and his own way. I'm happy for Motion to take a stand and say goodbye to Captain Bodgit.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

JayJay — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 02:14:05 GMT

Dammit, I can't believe Robby kept the damn mount on Den's Legacy. I don't get it, there are much much much better jockeys than him. This sucks big time! That means if he hits the board, I can't play him in the derby.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Mike Relva — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 01:16:29 GMT

Ranagulzion

All I'm saying regarding Pletcher is he's had more than his share of chances. Time to remove the rose colored glasses.

re: Fla, LA Derby picks

Mike Relva — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 01:16:29 GMT

Ranagulzion

All I'm saying regarding Pletcher is he's had more than his share of chances. Time to remove the rose colored glasses.