Oaks Day!

re: Oaks Day!

Monarchos Matt — Sun, 05 May 2013 02:18:25 GMT

Rusty- glad I wasn't able to talk you out of Aubby K! Nicely done. How did the rest of the card turn out for you?

Orb was utterly awesome...but some horse named Golden Soul ruined my trifecta. Tough game. I have a feeling I'm not the only one who had Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion underneath Orb though so I won't lose sleep over it. But this is the first time my win pick has worn the roses since 2007, so I'm happy...what a cool horse and with great connections.

re: Oaks Day!

Little Bill — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:22:28 GMT

Thanks Phil. Payouts, 3 dollar difference, crazy. Still a nice hit. What a wasted attempt with P Malice. I figured him to be on top of the second flight. Saw him on the lead and said oh well, here we go. Then saw the quarter time.

re: Oaks Day!

Pete Denk — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:14:30 GMT

I salute all the regular posters on this blog. Lot of great contributors. It sounds like several of you cashed big today.

I have to give a shout out to Kerry Thomas. The THT Derby analysis is now on a 3-year win streak. Orb was far and away the pick on herd dynamics.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:13:18 GMT

JayJay -

No P4 here.

We did not like any of the deep closers that performed well in the La Derby since they did so 'with' a Closers Flow. Unfortunately, those downgrades caught the exact same Flow as they did in New Orleans, and thus were able to repeat the efforts. Those that liked Revo or Mylute as closers from the race could have, or should have, been compelled by the big difference in odds for Golden Soul compared to the other two.

Two weeks to Baltimore and my 25th straight live Preakness. Ironically, the run began with Sunday Silence defeating my first real personal favorite Easy Goer. Still bitter about that one.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:07:30 GMT

Pedigree Ann -

Time heals all. I've found that the best way to get over a missed score is to mess up the next one as soon as possible.

Great handicapping - sorry you did not get the reward deserved. Seriously.

re: Oaks Day!

JayJay — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:05:30 GMT

Ranagulzion : Our conversation was about DoJ going into the Derby so I'm not sure how her next races would prove me wrong. If DoJ runs at GP again, she'll definitely be a deserving favorite and her chances of winning against fillies next out is not hard to figure out. No one expects you to know everything, it's okay to admit you're wrong sometimes. It gives you much more credibility when you actually admit that you don't get it right sometimes, specially when you're actually wrong.

PBP : Nice hit on that P3, that's a lotsa moola! Looks like you hit the P4 today as well. Well done!

Mylute did all he can to get there but he was so far back, not sure why Rosie rode him like a closer but I cant really question it. I still love this horse and Rosie of course. If they run the Derby next week, I still won't have Golden Soul in my tickets, but to those who had him, nice hit !

It's the cleanest Derby I've seen in a long time where no horse really got into any kind of trouble. I'm glad that all the horses finished.

re: Oaks Day!

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:58:41 GMT

I feel so stupid. I wrote about my horse-to-horse comparative analysis of the Derby field on the Haskin blog, but it didn't show up, so I suppose I can be accused of redboarding here. I don't care.

In that post, I stated my method found that the best preps were the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby, so I would look for the winner from those races. So for my Trifecta I had boxed Revo, Orb, and Mylute, and added Golden Soul, a fast-closing 4th in La, to the third place only to save some money. Stupid, stupid, stupid. At least I had Orb across the board, but the Tri was a different order of magnitude.

How must Departing's people be feeling now? They thought they couldn't make the Derby so ran in the Ill. version. Then everybody marginal drops out, and so he COULD have run, and the form indicates he could had a shot for a place. At least he got a big pot of money.

Verrazano looked flabby and lacked muscle definition in his rear end, to my eye. Never liked him, so an easy toss.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:46:18 GMT

Fugue -

Nicely done.

As I expected, the Oaks/Woodford/Derby was a glorified Oaks/Derby Double, as it returned nearly the exact same price for a $2 bet, $678 and $681.

Better than sharp stick in the eye, but just barely.

re: Oaks Day!

i812many — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:45:38 GMT

BOOM!

Thanks Phil. Today was something special! Although it involved absolutly no skill and was mearly luck today. We are happy to say the least. For the small investment,50 each, we played 50 1$ ex box.....i made the joke it may pay so well that we may have to play singles....i think it was more just to watch him push that button so many times...thats for the newbies...glad for that repeat button, he was.

all my other wager done through hard work and labor...$0....Now that deserves the dreaded ,LOL!

re: Oaks Day!

Little Bill — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:39:52 GMT

I built most of my bets around P Malice and G Soul. Came away with 2.00 ex, 10.00 place and show money. Still could not land tri or super.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:25:14 GMT

i812 -

Very nice hit - that deserves a 'Boom'.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:23:42 GMT

Kevin -

Prior to today, the two most Closer favoring Flows, pace scenarios if you will, were Giacomo and Street Sense. Closer favoring races are called 'zip's in racing flow lingo.

Today, the first half was run in 45.3 seconds, the second half was run in nearly 51 seconds and the final quarter was covered in 26.7 seconds. The race Flow was ideal for deep closers - they were all passing stop signs.

Normandy Invasion was too close to the early action relative to Orb, moved too early into the fast pace, and was ultimately caught by three deep closers. This is a 'Quick to Zip' move. Pending confirmation of the obvious, he ran, in racing flow's opinion, the best race of them all. Look at where all the other speed horses finished: Palace Malice, Oxbow, Verrazano, Goldencents, etc.

You really should take a look at our website, no so much to subscribe, but to learn what we do. It will definitely add to your knowledge base.

re: Oaks Day!

Kevin — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:02:03 GMT

Todd Pletcher now 1-23 in the Derby?

re: Oaks Day!

Kevin — Sat, 04 May 2013 23:01:20 GMT

PBP: what do you mean by a quick to zip? what do you mean by the strongest flow in 23 years?

re: Oaks Day!

i812many — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:59:50 GMT

I had him(4)... i have never like him...ever... My buddy who absolutly know NOTHIHNG about horse racing has been hounding me and hounding me about his horse...he had a dream..he would not STOP this week.... I liked ORB... The rest is history. Honestly, my best berby EVER!!

re: Oaks Day!

i812many — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:55:23 GMT

did that exacta just happen!!!....glad i played that one in $1 increaments....very nice,VERY NICE! Hope all did well.

what was palice malice doing up front? smith think he was gunna steal that? What a run by the winner. Phil, I will be curious to hear your post race synopsis in a few days. Again i hope all did well today. I'm in an ORB of happiness!!!

AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH......

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:54:11 GMT

re: Normandy Invasion -

If anyone wants to see what a 'Quick to Zip' move looks like, watch NI's Derby run.

re: Oaks Day!

Kevin — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:52:19 GMT

Did anyone have Golden Soul? I had two tri tickets with 3, 5, 6, 16. Have yet to ever hit a Derby exacta or tri

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:50:57 GMT

Carlos in Cali -

Congrats on Orb.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:50:33 GMT

Ya think ?

This Flow may move to the top of the list over the last 23 years.

Congrats to Orb

re: Oaks Day!

Kevin — Sat, 04 May 2013 22:41:36 GMT

Blinkers on for Palace Malice was obviously a bad choice.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 21:29:16 GMT

Kevin -

Never mind....I see you just got started with the Late P4.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 21:14:17 GMT

Thanks Kevin.

You are P4 live, right ?

re: Oaks Day!

Kevin — Sat, 04 May 2013 21:06:46 GMT

PBP: I've seen several pick on you in this blog for upgrades/downgrades but not picking horses. You've proven your system with a good weekend of handicapping. Good luck.

re: Oaks Day!

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 04 May 2013 21:03:50 GMT

Live in that Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3 to : 5, 8, 10, 12, 16, 20