Kentucky Derby 139 Review

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 18 May 2013 14:41:42 GMT

Looks like Candyman E is a scratch. Unfortunate, he was a value play for me. Alright, Hardened Wilcat it is...

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

JayJay — Sat, 18 May 2013 05:38:54 GMT

" sharp too early "... that's it ?? Was it the fast time ? The way he ran ? If you're going to claim to know things, you'll have to explain. Still seems like a good guess on your part. You see the posts by a bunch of folks here...they give details which is really good read and informational. You... nothing.

Mary Zinke : Oh well, you're rich at heart. Don't be modest with your handicapping, you're a much much better handicapper than KY.

Forget the P5, did you guys see what the guaranteed pool is for the P4 ?? It's 1.5M, I'm not sure if that's a typo or not but man, that's worth investing a chunk of money in if it's real. I'll check again tomorrow but if it's real, I'll probably play the most expensive P4 I have ever played, $48.00!!

Good luck to all playing with real money tomorrow !!

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 18 May 2013 04:47:10 GMT

Phil,

Haha yes, but isn't that the beauty of it? Maybe I just have Malibu Moon fever. Moon Philly!

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 04:39:08 GMT

Mary -

I had Congenial in the 6th....good race, bad result as I say.

Good luck 'tom'.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Mary Zinke — Sat, 18 May 2013 04:27:25 GMT

Phil, I got to TuP too late to scream or vote for Sermon and he came in second by a nose, but I was there for Macha. I felt bad about that because I do believe in the scream power for their horses. Anyone having Batti Man is glad that the scream was not in effect.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Ranagulzion — Sat, 18 May 2013 04:25:20 GMT

I wouldn't call this 3YO crop weak. The running time and the splits for the Kentucky Derby were pretty darn good on that sloppy track IMO. Never mind Orb's Beyer figure 104 because steriods induced classic distance speed are a thing of the past. Orb is a beast right now but he can be beaten by several of his Preakness rivals. I actually think that this is a pretty good field for the following reasons: 1) Itsmyluckyday is still one of the top 3 colts in America. He didn't show up in the Derby, not necessarily because he peaked early as "Vet" would have us believe (if so, running again 2 weeks after a poor effort should still show that the "ship has sailed" (LOL). IMLD's best effort can see him turn the tables on Orb in a romp without stretching the immagination; 2) Will Take Charge is the one colt in the race that could conceivably stalk Orb wherever he is positioned down the backstretch and outduel him to the line. He'll be better now than in the Derby, no doubt about it; 3) Govenor Charlie is the one colt in the race (unknown quantity with very good quality) that could set fast fractions and wire the field, with all due respect to Goldencents (the latter needs a moderate pace to see out the distance successfully, which I dont think that he'll get, contrary to what many handicappers think); 4) Depating could be any type of horse ...a "Bernardini" type that gets respect after humbling the Preakness field is not a long shot in here.

Carlos n Cali,

Orb is a very good colt but he's no lock in this Preakness.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 04:16:34 GMT

Actually, they already have.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 04:13:09 GMT

Matt -

Understood.

If she wins this, they have pulled a monetary coup with a $25k purchase.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 18 May 2013 04:03:20 GMT

Plod,

Moon Philly may not match up in terms of class, but her speed figures do, and in such a short field with two heavy favorites, why not take a small shot on the fresh local horse? The other two aren't exactly world beaters so I'll take double their odds on the ML. If I lose, it won't ruin my day. Bigger battles will follow.

Good luck to you as well. I'll be thanking you if Appealing Cat wins and I manage to hit the Pick 4.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 03:49:48 GMT

Mary -

any luck at Hollywood ?

No internet wagering in AZ ? Guns and gaming only I guess.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 03:43:55 GMT

Matt -

I just don't see Moon Philly matching up with the top two.

Good luck.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 03:42:14 GMT

VET -

Concur on Mylute. He's the bold downgrade. I give WTC little to no chance as well. Departing receives our 'neutral or better win' status after the La Derby 'QtZ' upgrade - he's my live Double.

I still think Lukas is prepping for the Woody Stephens with Titletown Five, a horse I think highly of but not at classic distances.

I have no real reason to bet Appealing Cat in the Gallorette, unless in a head to head vs Old Tune. I already advanced a large (for me) Daily Double in the 9th of 4-4.

Good luck.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Mary Zinke — Sat, 18 May 2013 03:39:51 GMT

I was wondering, "Who's Tom?" Then, I realized tom=tomorrow.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Mary Zinke — Sat, 18 May 2013 03:14:35 GMT

You almost talked about Luckyday more than yourself, KY. It's like in a soap opera; the characters never say anything for no reason. My daughter, the famous Jessie, has Luckyday in an exacta with Orb. I'll let her know about your sooth-saying. Maybe she'll want to do a tri or super. She told me at least 7 that she liked and asked me to make up tickets for her, and that I'd owe her money if she lost. No, not explainable. That's how she is, but everyone loves her.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 18 May 2013 02:55:43 GMT

Rusty-

Looking deeper into the Gallorette, the 1:14 and 1:15 opening 3/4 in the Moon Philly races do jump off the page, but notice that in both cases (especially the 1:14), she wasn't on the lead. She closed into those fractions and pulled far away from the (admittedly weak) fields. In what looks likely to be a 6 horse field there a small win bet on her looks to be the only value play available.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 18 May 2013 02:35:16 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Duly noted. I suppose I was basing those estimates on prior performance opening splits without taking track configuration into account, thanks for the correction-- but it does sound like you agree with me that the pace will be hot up front, which I agree sets up well for Hardened Wildcat...but perhaps even better for Candyman E, who should be a better price as well. I'm keeping it to those two in the Pick 4 and on the top of my trifecta.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

KY VET — Sat, 18 May 2013 02:17:16 GMT

phil...like your wildcat horse...dont like appealing.......

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

KY VET — Sat, 18 May 2013 02:14:11 GMT

not really shocked......dont like goldencents tom......think alot like departing.......mylute peaked, ship sailed.....

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 01:31:57 GMT

VET -

FYI, Itsmyluckyday is the second choice in the Pimlico 'not so' Special / Preakness DD at 21-1 with Goldie at 23-1.

Shocked ?

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 01:11:07 GMT

Matt -

Nobody goes 45 flat at Pimlico - there is zero run-up. Listen to Dave Rodman today when the Miss Preakness went 22.86 to the opening quarter - he about fell out of his box. Last year's Maryland Sprint went 23.0, 46.3. In 2011, the Md Sprint went in 22.8, 45.8 and the 2010 edition saw a 23 flat opening quarter with a 45.6 half.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 18 May 2013 00:48:05 GMT

Rusty,

Re: Gallorette

Based on the PPs I'm looking at, Old Tune went :50 two starts back on the lead and :48 three starts back. We'll throw out the most recent effort as it appears she was never comfortable. It looks pretty clear to me that Pianist and Daydreamin Gracie will go :47.0 or faster (both have done so in their last 3 starts), and therefore I surmise that Old Tune will be forced out of her comfort zone yet again. Of course, Daydreamin Gracie is cross entered in the prior race, so that could change the complexion...but there are other speed oriented fillies and mares here capable of :48 opening halves, including Silver Screamer and Appealing Cat.

I see that Mary Zinke likes Pianist. Oh no Mary, why do you do this to me? Especially after nailing the Black Eyed Susan? Now I'm going to have to go against Poseidon's Warrior AND Pianist? I feel like my Pick 4 is already dead.

My problem with Pianist is that I anticipate a speed duel, and even her more impressive races have been a touch shorter than this one...I see her fading late. In a lone speed scenario I could see this angle. She was losing ground even at 8f in her last start in the Honey Fox after chasing a :47.1 opening half, no match for Samitar there....

And, just to clarify, if it sounds like I am always anticipating a "speed duel", that is not the case. I am taking the opposite position in the Dixie. If I thought there was speed in there, Doubles Partner would be a single.

My forecast, for what it's worth:

GALLORETTE: moderate to fast, :47.0 opening 1/2

MARLYAND SPRINT: very fast, :45.0 or faster opening 1/2

DIXIE: slow, :48.5 or slower opening 1/2

PREAKNESS: fast, :46.5 opening 1/2

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 18 May 2013 00:34:35 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Haha no kidding. You'd think after 400+ comments and a big day of racing tomorrow someone would have posted a new blog if only so the commenters could have a forum to discuss. In any case I'm glad a few of us keep checking back on this old blog and making new comments!

Rusty,

Re: Oxbow, I have a feeling it is either one or the other. He is either totally exhausted and finishes last, or he runs the race of his life. I've been obsessed with him since January so if he hits the board with those odds and I'm not on him I'm liable to be put on suicide watch. And in any case, I really still don't think he's gotten to run "his race", and he should have no excuses this time. There's no real reason to think he should be "tired", he's bred to run and all of these Derby horses are coming back off two weeks rest, his Arkansas Derby was pretty much a workout anyway as there is no way he was fully extended. Aside from Orb, there isn't a dominant horse in there so why not take a shot, like you said, his odds seem out of line relative to the others considering how well he held on after chasing that pace. I see he is 18-1 in the early betting, which is even better that the morning line!

As far as the Dixie goes, I agree that it is wide open, but when I play these Multi-Race wagers, being mostly an exacta and trifecta better myself, I always have to remind myself that we are trying to identify horses that can WIN the race...a completely different discipline altogether than trying to round out the bottom of a tri. As I look at horses like Optimizer, Howe Great, Wilcox Inn, Skyring...are these really horses worth including to cut into your bankroll? Can they really WIN the race? Maybe. To me, I feel pretty comfortable keeping it to Swift Warrior and Imagining and throwing in Doubles Partner based on class. Then again, Plod Boy has talked me out of the single in the 9th, so I am forced to cut back somewhere as a result.

As far as the 8th goes, I just feel like there are plenty of knocks on Summer Applause and Brushed By A Star to take a shot on the hot local horse. It will be interesting to see where her odds end up...neither of those two will offer a good value bet so I am hoping for the 7-2 morning line or higher on Moon Philly, but that may not end up happening. Plus, gotta stick with the hot sire, especially with Orb going later, right?

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 18 May 2013 00:20:29 GMT

There's more to the Easy Goer story.

Goer had some of the worst timing a horse could ever have with his peaks efforts. He ran his 2yr old best in the Champagne, then regressed in the goo at CD in the BCJ.

He ran a new lifetime best in the Wood, then regressing in the same goo Derby Day on what I believe then was three weeks. He proceeded to follow a classic 3 yr old recovery pattern by improving a bit in the Preakness before coming full circle to a new best in the Belmont. As is the teaching, horses often follow 8-10 weeks cycles. Meanwhile, Sunday Silence was following a different form cycle, that if memory serves, had him peaking Derby Day, regressing slightly in Baltimore before another backward move in the Belmont.

It's also interesting that Easy Goer fired a lifetime best in the JCGP, one race in advance of the BC Classic when he was again defeated by Sunday Silence.

Timing in this game is everything.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Sam Santschi — Sat, 18 May 2013 00:18:35 GMT

Thanks PBP. Bet EK this AM, then right before I left work saw all the scratches and cancelled my bet. Doh! Got home examined the PP's and saw there was still enough pace left for her and put bets back on only to watch her stumble leaving the gate. She just barely won but who cares. Crazy day. Looking forward to tomorrow. Thinking WTC will run big. Second would be fine.

re: Kentucky Derby 139 Review

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 18 May 2013 00:10:25 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Modified bet: I'll go eight or even ten wide in the Dixie on P4. I'll save Imagining and Swift Warrior for the double.