TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 16:12:12 GMT

I'd forgotten the name of that horse. I thought it was Banks Hill I'd bet.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 16:10:40 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

What a funny coincidence. Islington was actually at SA in 2003. Islington was the biggest bet I've ever made in my life, $500 -- singled her in a huge P4 ticket and got knocked out when I didn't hit "ALL" in the Juvenile, won by Action This Day. It put me off racing for a little while and I didn't play the Breeder's Cup for a long time after that.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 15:56:31 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

I've gotten over the shame of pressing ALL. I learned that from Dakota Phone in what would have been a nice P4 where I liked both Dangerous Midge and Blame (still very narrowly won that day because of the aforementioned chalk, but the chalk upset me because I had singled $144 on Big Drama and got lucky with him and didn't wind up with much).

By the way, it was Wilko, though I wasn't playing the BC those years.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 15:33:03 GMT

Rusty -

My stupidest P3 bet was the opposite sort. It was the BC in Texas, in which I singled Islington in the FM Turf (who did not?) In the Mile I had 3, including Singletary, whom I had followed since I won $60+ on his debut win. Then in the Juvie, I went NEARLY all - I figured those foreign-raced horses weren't going to beat this lot on dirt, so I omitted those 2. WRONG. Wilco beat Alex and I had zilch instead of a truly lovely payout.

Moral - always go ALL if you are including over 2/3 of the field on the ticket. If it is that wide open...,

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 14:12:59 GMT

I mention it because I played a P3 Saturday at Saratoga on a lark while waiting for the WV Derby, made a bad, cowardly bet and still came out a few dollars ahead. I liked the winner of R6 a lot, Gimme Credit, who was the 7/2 second-favorite despite proven class, and was willing to go with the even-money favorite in the 2-yo race, Dunkin Bend, while I took ALL seven in the last leg. Those winners and the 2-1 favorite in the last leg paid $40-1. Like I said, instead of betting the $7 on the ones I liked I ended up taking the top two favorites in the first two legs and bet $28: the sign of a losing streak, spreading wide to catch a ticket and, worse, taking chalk I didn't even like. The second favorite in the second leg was a particularly bad bet: a Pletcher 2-yo who didn't go off at better than even money (he was 2-1 after starting 3-1 on the board).

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 14:01:04 GMT

Unrelated open question:

Anybody play rolling P3s? I like the P4 but have noticed the P3 makes a pretty good hedge. Even chalky P3's pay well -- for example, there were three of them at Saratoga Saturday that paid an average of about $40-1, while one with two second-favorites and a 23-1 paid $700-1. If you'd have played only the top two favorites in $8 P3s all that day you would have doubled your money.

I am thinking of trying some rolling P3 strategy when I play the Breeder's Cup. The average payout on a $1 P3 ticket in 2010-2012 has been, respectively: $842, $4960, $614. I remember "hitting" P3s in 2010, having a mouth full of chalk holding a bunch of worthless tickets and wanting to cry, then being surprised by Big Uncle Mo/Goldikova P3s that actually paid $62-1 and Big Drama/Uncle Mo tickets that paid $140-1.

I just know there's a foolproof betting strategy on this, doggone it.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 13:38:40 GMT

Rusty -

Poor choice of words on my part with 'over analyze'. That comment was directed at me, not you. I asked to inspire a bit of handicapping dialogue - well done.

Yes, the 'tandem' rule is a simple angle that will produce robust overlays often enough to take notice.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 13:16:44 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Thanks, particularly with that note about timings. As we've seen a few times lately, it's always worth being skeptical about a time that looks too fast (or too slow).

Hey, be fair, though: I wouldn't have "overanalyzed" it if you hadn't asked me. To me the initial appeal was an angle I quickly spotted, one you would endorse: a lot of horses coming out of the same race and running back at the same class -- when I see that I'm looking for a legitimate reason to back the one the others beat because the odds will often soar out of whack.

That all said, the horse is likely to do what he always does: get the lead and quit.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

derbygal — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 23:08:13 GMT

Delmar: Late pick 4

Race 5 #'s 1,5,6,7

Race 6 #'s 2,3,4

Race 7 #'s 3,4,5,6

Race 8 #'s 1,5,11

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

derbygal — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 21:57:12 GMT

Delmar: Race #3 W/p #3,#6

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 20:43:41 GMT

Rusty -

* The July 20th race came back 'neutral' for us. A modestly speed favoring Flow was offset by a track the was playing kind to off the pace types. The net result is essentially a wash.

* The 6.5f distance at Saratoga in general yields slightly faster 1st and 2nd quarter splits than does the 6f distance. The 6f marker at the longer 6.5f distance is reached ~.7 seconds faster than the wire is reached going 6f.

* That said, nothing to gain by over analyzing a 12-1 ML horse that you like that has that many small numbers (speed points if you will) in it's last three races in an event that appears wanting for early pace.

Good luck.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 19:45:05 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Besides being used up on a very fast pace (22.00,45.31 -- compares with the shorter Prioress) he was 50-1 and will maybe get better odds than the 12-1 ML. I think he gets even better odds because three of the horses that closed from far back and finished in front of him are coming back against him here. That one I bet last time, Soul House, will be the heavy favorite (7/5 ML), especially as he finished second with the excuse of "dropping back off heels", but still, the race set up for him and he couldn't win it; same for the other two.

I'm going to guess you'd upgrade him as well of the winner of that race, Crackerjack Jones, who was classier than this group.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 18:48:10 GMT

Rusty -

What do you like about that one ?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 16:53:34 GMT

Open question: Will there ever be a good occasion to bet against Wise Dan? I tried once on the soggy turf on Derby Day and won't do it again.

I'm avoiding him this Saturday and will play the P3 that ends with the race preceding his.

Longshot: R7 Do I Amuse You

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 13:16:29 GMT

Coldfacts -

The cold facts of the matter is that US commercial breeders are scared to go against the grain in stallion selection. They would rather send their best mares to the more familiarly-bred decent horse than to a truly brilliant 'foreigner' with an unfamiliar pedigree.

It takes a major farm putting it resources behind the horse, as Claiborne was behind Forli, for him to have half a chance to get the better mares. Make no mistake - only the very rare stallion can make an impact without good mares.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Coldfacts — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 12:23:40 GMT

Kindly substitute the verb grasping with gasping in my post regarding Invasor.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Coldfacts — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 12:19:57 GMT

JerseyBoy,

Before you post a correction kindly substitute the grasping with gasping in my post regarding Invasor.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Coldfacts — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 11:50:49 GMT

Ranagulzion,

What is required is keeping it real.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Mary Zinke — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 02:46:29 GMT

Okay, so the footy I've been missing, though not desperately or anything, was an extremely amusing, although hard for most to understand because HE(could not have been a female)typed in all lowercase, run-on sentences, no punctuation, comments sprinkled quite liberally with profanity, but always in, I know hard to believe, but a kind way, and he was on either very late night or early morning depending on your time zone. Worked at someone's barn. Gave his opinions in a non-politically correct way. Seemed bemused by the antics of some horsemen or bloggers, or sometimes, such as with trainers' drug violations, alternately ticked off, when need be.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Mary Zinke — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 02:20:26 GMT

I wouldn't.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

KY VET — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 01:15:01 GMT

3/5 and 3/5........

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

KY VET — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 01:13:17 GMT

do i give the winningest jockey in history instructions?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Ranagulzion — Wed, 07 Aug 2013 23:42:48 GMT

Coldfacts,

Lets take a break from discussing Verrazano because the more we do, folks attribute our focus to yours truly hyping the colt, while all I'm doing is defending my estimation of the horse's talent against your attempts to minaturize him.

Mary Zinke,

Footlick is a lady ...I too wish for her to revisit us on here an tell us if Dawn Approach and Moonlight Cloud are coming for the Breeder's Cup mile to face off with the reigning HOTY Wise Dan.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Mary Zinke — Wed, 07 Aug 2013 23:11:26 GMT

Gotta cheer for Stop Smiling in the Sorrento, r7 at Del Mar today. 5,4,2,3.

XX, nice name.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 07 Aug 2013 21:45:20 GMT

Fugue -

What's a shooter to do ?

I got everything I hoped for with Terminus - Flow and stupid big odds. Unfortunate racing luck slapped me down this time.