TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 16:10:40 GMT

Coldfacts-

In addition to the two horses in tomorrow's finale at Saratoga I mentioned here that scratched as MTOs Monday, the 11th contains a runner I wrote about in the 7/29-8/4 edition of 'RF Notes'.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 15:44:43 GMT

Monarchos Matt --

I'll take those same two in the middle leg.

P3:

Jack Milton,Yeager,Rydilluc/

Dank,MMix/

Indy Point

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 15:17:40 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

What am I saying? They're 3-yos and all of them are basically trying this distance out. Maybe I'll try Yeager for the odds.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 14:05:34 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Yeah, that was my point. I was burned twice by the same horse last year and I've used the same word as you: nemesis. Go for it.

That said, I don't like a horse that hasn't gone the distance in question unless he's outclassing the others. For example, I'm betting Twilight Eclipse in the Sword Dancer -- this is a horse that likes to run up near the pace and is moving back out to what seems be his optimal distance, 10f -- I don't like others here who have the typical late-charging style at the shorter distances (Boisterous, Big Blue Kitten). Completely throw out his Manhattan, by the way.

Speaking of which, make a note that Real Solution ran on a sodden course -- in that race where Point of Entry should have been scratched for the second time in a row instead of being run (a horrible race to recall even though I won some money on POE). Evidently this kind of surface is not only not to some horses' liking (e.g., Point of Entry or Marketing Mix), but it can be very taxing, or worse. Contributor Kevin liked Real Solution in that one but you may have missed the boat, odds-wise, on that one.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Coldfacts — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 12:50:58 GMT

Jack Milton appears to be a good wager for the Secretariat. I made a little money off Mr. Pletcher's colt in the Saratoga Special and consequently I have a bank roll to take a shot.

Jack Milton was an unlucky looser of the VA Derby. If not for traffic problems he would have been much the best. He was trapped against the rails for the better part of the race and when trying to maneuver his way through traffic he came up short. He dived inside to pass the tiring Rydilluc and when checking of both Redwood Kitten and Charming Kitten he was briefly trapped by the fast closing and eventual winner War Dancer. He was also checked down the back stretch. Many horses would have thrown in the towel but he kept closing. These are all signs of the brilliant and honest race horse.

His sire War Front has turned out to be an excellent stallion. Lines Of Battle sired by War Front finished a willing 7th in the KD after exiting the UAE Derby. The KD was his 2nd start in 6 months. Jack Milton dam is lightly raced and just the type of mare that produces champions.

While I recognize that there will be some Euros in the lineup, I am of the opinion that if this colt reports improved he will be the one to beat.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Coldfacts — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 11:54:07 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Mr. Steve Haskin and others were high on Rydilluc based on his impressive win the Palm Beach.

I was not as impressed as the first 6F of the Palm Beach was run at a snail's pace and consequently Rydillucs sprinted home in the last three furlongs impressively.

Would he have the same explosive final kick in a race with an honest pace? Unlikely!

I did not think he would be anything special as his sire bred almost 200 mares in 2009 and represents an overbred stallion. Overbred stallion rarely produce champion horses. In fact the progenies of these stallions appear to be more prone to break downs and mysterious physical problems. Giants Causeway and Tapit were also overbred.

Only one stallion that bred close to 200 mares had a representative in the Derby. That was Tapit who was represented by Normandy Invasion. He has not been able to face the starter since.

I have not seen the field for the Secretariat but I can safely state that Rydilluc will not be my first choice.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 23:50:11 GMT

Noble Kent...yes.

Just a wee bit unfortunate in the 5th.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 22:01:55 GMT

Dedicated handicappers: The remaining Grades for the Thursday card at Del Mar may be found for free on the Upgrades & Analysis page at Racing Flow.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 21:16:41 GMT

Rusty,

I've been burned way too many times by lone speed in Turf races. When I think I see it and it is an accomplished horse to boot (Rydilluc is undefeated on firm turf), I bet it. But I'm waiting to watch some races and get a better assessment of his pedigree before I finalize that. Admittedly, Jack Milton is the horse to beat in that race.

Little Mike is the perfect example of lone speed that has killed me on multiple occasions, but he won't be that this year. Nate's Mineshaft's connections have basically admitted that they are going to set fast fractions and see how far he will go. Plus, he's been off form of late, and last year was the time to bet him, he'll be way too short a price for me on Saturday. It's almost become a running joke how much Little Mike is my arch nemesis so I admit I'm almost emotionally against him at this point.

The Million should be a fascinating betting race. It is very hard to look past the favorite Grandeur on current form. The main knock against him is that he may need a bit more ground, but I like that he's been successful out west on firm turf courses and his current form is far superior to that. Indy Point seems to be the buzz horse down at the track, and I need to watch some of his Argentinian races to see what the hype is all about. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the favorite at post time the way people are talking about him right now. The race is setting up to be Derby-esque in terms of betting, I think you'll see a 4-1 or even 5-1 favorite.

A horse that intrigues me from a value standpoint is Real Solution. He closed well to finish only 1.5 lengths behind Point of Entry in his last, and I have to think POE would be the favorite here even with a strong Euro contingent. The Beyer he earned in that race tops the field at this distance, granted the Euros don't really have Beyers to compare to. I found a link of Chefs de Race that tries to convert Racing Post Ratings to Beyers, but my head started spinning and I went to bed.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 21:03:32 GMT

Rusty,

Golden Jason looks like very cheap speed to me. He's down on the rail inside of Visiyani who might be the only other horse that is versatile enough to go early so he's going to be in a very very tough spot. I'm not worried about Golden Jason wearing down Rydilluc. I am worried about Rydilluc just not being a 10f horse, however.

I don't agree with your second point. I decide to play exactas, trifectas and superfectas based on precisely that, how sure am I of the winner? If I am unsure and think it could be any of three horses, I might box those in an exacta or trifecta. If I'm sure of the exacta but don't think it offers value I might wheel those two over ALL or most in a tri or superfecta. In a 9 horse race I don't think it's a bad play when you are sure you know the 1st and 2nd place finishers in some order, to try to go for a little extra value underneath.

Having said that, I think I'm leaning towards a 2/3/6/7 structure for my superfecta.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 20:58:43 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

...speaking of which, Little Mike is in the feature. What do you think of that race?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 20:54:58 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Re: Rydilluc -- time was I would say never take the pacesetter in a 13-horse field...but I've given up trying to predict the pace of races. If you like the one that's fastest out of the gate, bet it.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 20:43:11 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I would never make a distinction between the "exacta spots" and the 3 and 4 spots. Once you get past your winner there's too much randomness in who picks up the rest of the money; sometimes the second best horse in a race won't even hit the board, after all.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 20:35:39 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Gennadi Dorochenko has two 30-1 entries in that race. One of them, Golden Jason, will be contesting the pace from the rail. I guess he's setting it up for the other one, ha ha.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 20:30:33 GMT

Rusty,

The Euros are what make it a crazy betting day! There's actually a $0.50 Pick 4 starting with the American St Leger going through the Secretariat, Beverly D and Million. $200,000 guarantee. Worth a look for sure.

Last year I played the Pick 5 instead and was live heading into the Beverly D but the Euro I'm a Dreamer ruined it for me (I had been pretty stupid and used three horses, all Americans, Aruna, Mystical Star and Romacaca. Always sane to use at least one Euro).

Stacelita, another Euro won the running before that one but I had the exacta in 2010 when Eclair de Lune won the race, which was great because she is owned by the guy whose wife the race is named after. So it isn't always an all Euro affair and Marketing Mix is going to be a very, very tough out in the Beverly D this time.

The Euros all look strong in that race but the shortest price, Duntle, has never gone beyond 8f in 9 career starts and many of the notes on her PPs read "just held on for win" at that distance. Gifted Girl looks to be in the same class but likes to run near the lead and may have similar distance limitations. The one that intrigues me most is Dank. She's won twice at 9f and has done so with good energy, and might offer decent value since Duntle beat her two back at 8f. All indications are that this filly is much improved since that effort and reports from the track have been raving about her physical condition. I'll use her and Marketing Mix in my Pick 4 and will wait to see how the odds play out to see which one I bet. Looks like a decent race to try to hit the superfecta as well by keying those two in the exacta spots and going 7 deep in the 3 and 4 spots (La Tia and Artemus Kitten are the local entrants and complete tosses in my opinion).

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 20:04:37 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I'll look forward to your picks. Those are three big races in a row so I guess I should take a look and give it a whirl.

I took a look at the field for the Beverly D. and wouldn't know what to do with the Europeans. How have they done on Arlington Million day lately?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 19:48:52 GMT

Rusty,

Don't miss out on the Arlington card Saturday. I'll be making my 4th consecutive appearance out there for the Million card, the weather is supposed to be 78 and sunny and the value will be abundant. I'm still formulating strategies but there is a lot to like all over the card.

Coldfacts,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall you being pretty high on Rydilluc back in the spring, and felt he was a potential candidate for the win had he made it into the Derby (if that was someone else, please accept my apologies).

Rydilluc will be making his second start at the 10f distance after suffering an 8th place defeat in the Virginia Derby over a softer turf course than his connections think ideal for him. There hasn't been rain here in Chicago all week, so he is going to get a nice, firm turf course Saturday when he goes in the Secretariat. I am interested in him as potential lone speed in this race, as he is near the rail and the field is full of stalkers and deep closers. The only thing that gives me pause is that I fear he may be more suited to shorter distances. Do you or anyone else have an opinion on his ability to negotiate 10f at this level? Can he carry his speed that far? Because I don't see anyone else that is going to go with him and if he gets away early and has gas in the tank, it could be curtains for the rest of the field.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 16:51:21 GMT

Phil -

Sometimes my great-aunt Sadie, the high school English teacher (from 1902 to 1921 at Omaha South), takes over and has me typing before I know where it will end. Poor lady, she died at age 41 of pernicious amemia just a few years before a viable treatment for the Vitamin B-12 deficiency disease was discovered.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 14:28:23 GMT

I expect to like Twilight Eclipse here off his last performance and at this distance.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 14:11:49 GMT

I'm looking forward to Saturday at Saratoga. I will probably steer clear of the Alabama in favor of the Sword Dancer, where there's a 13-horse field and a beatable favorite, Boisterous, who just broke into G1 ranks. They've had some rain on the turf course and the weather is unseasonably cool, so the carpet won't be parched and threadbare, and the weather will be perfect. An 8-1 horse I liked up above that scratched out of an off-the-turf race will be back in one of the races preceding it and two of PBP's picks are running in the last race.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 13:42:50 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

"Yet another completely useless post from Ann as it relates to picking a winner."

That's a very unkind post regarding the views of the valued contributor. I found the information useful.

You were are correct regarding the fact that the post did not address picking winners. However, the contributor didn't indicate same.

She was merely sharing information and providing clarifications. Racing is not always about picking winners irrespective of the title of the Blog.

I found the information provided useful

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Mary Zinke — Wed, 14 Aug 2013 18:58:31 GMT

change SAR r6 to 2,6,8,9

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

derbygal — Wed, 14 Aug 2013 17:58:29 GMT

Saratoga: Race #6 W/P 6,8

Ex. Box 6,8,7,3,9 Turf is yielding, race distance changed from 9.5f to 9.0f, and stays on the turf.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 13 Aug 2013 21:49:10 GMT

re: Treasury Bill

Just an FYI - not for betting purposes. This once highly regarded 3yo shows up in an OC25k/Nw1x in R6 tonight at Indiana Downs.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Saratoga and Del Mar Graded Stakes Races

Mary Zinke — Tue, 13 Aug 2013 18:50:09 GMT

Since Secreteriat brought up the Million, my early win pick is Indy Point. I had Little Mike last year because I knew Dominguez could budget out Mike's speed. Will update after final entries are out.